NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029100010052-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2005
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: July 31, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
0 Saturday July 31, 1976
C'I NTDC_ 76-179('
OLU L VIJG1LIIIC11L ICVICVV bUIIIpICL U
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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Nn-Finnal Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday July 31, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose o in forming 25X1
senior US o icials.
LEBANON: Tentative Accord Approval Page 1
SPAIN: Amnesty Decree Page 3
LIBYA-TUNISIA: Friendly Gesture Page 4
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Prime Minister Killed Page 5
KENYA-UGANDA: Relations Page 6
EUROPE: Joint Float Page 6
USSR: Ustinov Promoted Page 7
USSR: Brezhnev Interviewed Page 7
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LEBANON: Tentative Accord Approval
//Lebanon's principal Christian and leftist
leaders have tentatively approved the Syrian-Palestinian accord
signed in Damascus on Thursday.//
//Camille Shamun and leftist leader Kamal Jum-
blatt--the two most likely dissenters--yesterday expressed hope
that a cease-fire will be implemented. Neither could be drawn
out on the agreement's other provisions.//
I I Phalanges Party leader Jumayyil--generally more flex-
ible than the militant Shamun--also endorsed the agreement, but
issued an unusually blunt warning that the Christians are not
satisfied with its reaffirmation of the 1969 Cairo agreement as
the basis for regulating Palestinian activity in Lebanon. He im-
plied that the Christians will demand even stricter regulations
in the new round of settlement talks.
I I Jumayyil's remarks, which clearly reflect Shamun's
position, were probably intended to put the Palestinians on no-
tice that the Christians are united on this issue and do not
feel bound by an agreement they did not negotiate. Despite re-
peated assurances from Damascus, the Christians are uneasy
about Syrian intentions and may be worried that Syria and the
Palestinians have struck a private bargain.
I The Syrians and Palestinians themselves are quarrel-
ing over a preamble to the agreement--apparently drafted solely
by the Syrians--which blamed the tragedy in Lebanon on Egypt's
conclusion of the second Sinai agreement. The quarrel has led
to widespread confusion even among the Palestinians over the
status of the entire accord.
PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat sent a message to Egyptian
resiae Sadat late Thursday just after the accord was an-
nounced denouncing the Syrian statement and denying that the
Palestinians had any foreknowledge of its contents. The message,
in effect, apologized for the preamble, but did not refer to
the agreement itself.
I Arafat apparently then sent a second message to all
Fatah an PLO representatives reaffirming his approval of the
agreement, but again denouncing the "lies put out by Damascus
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Radio." Despite Arafat's apparent effort to distinguish between
the preamble and the accord itself, a Palestinian spokesman told
reporters yesterday that an agreement with Syria had not been
reached. Fumbling to explain the Palestinians' position, the
spokesman finally said both Egypt and Syria have betrayed the
Palestinians.
I I The quarrel over the statement and the confusion it
as created will, at the very least, delay Arafat's plans to
travel to Damascus. Whether or not it upsets the reconciliation
accord will depend largely on the reactions of Egypt and Syria.
Although Arafat clearly wants to settle with the Syrians and is
probably willing to minimize the incident, he cannot afford to
jeopardize the material and political support he is now receiv-
ing from the Egyptians.
I Moreover, Arafat must answer to some of his more mil-
itant co leagues who have opposed dealing with Damascus and may
seize on the Syrians' actions as a pretext for backing out of
the reconciliation accord.
//The Syrians, for their part, have little con-
fidence that the Palestinians will adhere to the agreement and
will probably not go out of their way to preserve it. The Syr-
ians are particularly worried about the aid the Palestinians
are receiving and reportedly believe it is only a matter of
time before their adversaries, rearmed and resupplied, break
the truce.//
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SPAIN: Amnesty Decree
I I The amnesty decree King Juan Carlos issued yesterday
that wi free a number of Spain's remaining political prison-
ers and restore civil rights to the Republicans who fought
against Franco in the Civil War. The decree is a move toward
the national reconciliation promised by Prime Minister Suarez.
opposition parties for its political reform program. These par-
ties have demanded a complete amnesty, and limitations in the
decree are likely to generate criticism from the left opposition.
torts to enlist the support of the previously illegal democratic
The amnesty is intended to boost the government's ef-
The amnesty covers all political crimes, such as in-
vo vemen in previously illegal political meetings and issuance
of propaganda, but persons convicted of crimes of terrorism
causing death or injury are excluded. Also, no redress is pro-
vided for workers who were fired for organizing or taking part
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in politically motivated strikes. The minister of justice said
about 200 of the estimated 600 political prisoners will be re-
leased.
A government official has indicated there was some
difficulty in overcoming the opposition of conservative senior
officials to inclusion of the military in the amnesty. The nine
officers convicted earlier this year of subversion in connection
with their membership in the clandestine Military Democratic
Union will be released under the amnesty, and armed forces mem-
bers who fought against Franco in the Civil War will become eli-
gible for pensions.
I The government is likely to stress that the amnesty
does no cover fiscal crimes, such as taking money out of the
country illegally, in order to emphasize its effort to stop
capital flight.
LIBYA-TUNISIA: Friendly Gesture
//Tunisian Interior Minister Belkhodja is
likely to visit Libya this weekend in response to an invitation
from President Qadhafi.//
JA meaningful Libyan-Tunisian
nci is ion is un i e y. a a i remains fundamentally op-
posed to Tunisian President Bourguiba and will continue subver-
sive operations against the Tunisian government.
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Bour uiba's decision to send Belkhodja--whom he report-
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edly regards as a better negotiator--rather than Foreign Minis-
ter Chatti sugg psts that he is determined not to yield to Lib-
yan pressures.
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: PM Killed
I I Prime Minister Rakotomalala of the Malagasy Republic
an several other senior government officials were killed in a
helicopter crash yesterday.
I Over the past few weeks there have been numerous ru-
mors in rive about widespread military and civilian dis-
satisfaction with Ratsiraka's rule. Many may conclude that
Ratsiraka engineered the helicopter crash to eliminate a sus-
pected rival.
I I Although Ratsiraka faces little or no organized oppo-
sition, e lacks a strong personal following and has had diffi-
culty inspiring his countrymen, especially the rural peasantry,
to support his blueprint for a socialist revolution. He also ap-
pears to have little understanding of how to deal with the coun-
try's economic problems, which include food shortages and rising
unemployment.
I IThe deaths will have no effect on Ratsiraka's deter-
mination to pursue radical policies but probably will retard
the functioning of his government. Rakotomalala, who also held
the defense portfolio, was the president's hardworking right-
hand man and handled much of the government's day-to-day admin-
istrative work. The armed forces chief of staff, who was also
killed in the accident, was in charge of the government's ambi-
tious civic action program.
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Uganda's President Amin yesterday lauded Kenyan Pres-
ident enyatta and told Eteki t~zat Uganda would accept a Kenyan
proposal to send a delegation to Nairobi for talks. Amin was
probably referring to Kenyan Foreign Minister Waiyaki's public
statement earlier this week that Nairobi would welcome talks be-
tween the two sides as well as an OAU investigation of the dis-
pute.
Amin's attitudes are subject to abrupt shifts, and
the Kenyans apparently are viewing his latest conciliatory words
with considerable caution.
Kenya appears to be seeking support from neighboring
iopia. Waiyaki was in Addis Ababa on Thursday to begin a
round of periodic consultations, normally held to resolve bilat-
eral problems.
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Kenya and Ethiopia have a long-standing mutual defense
pact, but Ethiopia is too preoccupied with internal unrest to
aid Kenya. Nairobi probably recognizes it has little chance of
getting Ethiopian help but apparently pushed to have the twice-
postponed meeting held now to give Uganda the impression it has
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The European joint float came under renewed pressure
yesterday due to dollar selling apparently triggered by US an-
nouncements of prime rate reductions and a continued trade def-
icit in June. Movement out of dollars and into the Deutschemark
pushed the German currency to the top of the snake band while
the Belgian, Swedish, and Danish currencies fell to the bottom.
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The German currency was also bolstered by renewed
market rumors that some realignment of float parities is inevi-
table after the German general election in October. The mark,
which closed at 2.545 to the dollar yesterday, has appreciated
nearly 1 percent against the dollar in two days.
I I For the first time in several weeks, the German cen-
tral an intervened through direct purchases of member curren-
cies to help its joint float partners. The Bel an central bank
also directly intervened to support the franc. i 25X1
The promotion, announced yesterday, of Soviet Minis-
ter of Defense Dmitry Ustinov to the rank of marshal of the So-
viet Union brings him level in rank with top military officers
who are his immediate subordinates. It also makes him the equal
in military rank of General Secretary Brezhnev.
Ustinov was promoted to army general at the end of
April when he was named minister of defense. He had previously
held an inactive rank as colonel general of engineering troops.
Brezhnev--identified as army general in 1975--was promoted to
marshal of the Soviet Union a week after Ustinov's promotion
was announced.
I IThe full implications of Ustinov's and Brezhnev's
military promotions are still not clear, and the speed with
which Ustinov has received his second promotion is unusual.
USSR: Brezhnev Interviewed
I In an interview in Pravda on the eve of the first an-
niversary of the Helsinki summit, General Secretary Brezhnev
attacked alleged Western interference in Italian politics.
Following the recent Soviet propaganda line, Brezhnev
charged at the alleged Western agreement to withhold economic
aid from an Italian government including the communists is a
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clear violation of the Helsinki accord. Last year, the USSR
used the same argument to attack the Western attitude toward
Portugal.
25X1 Brezhnev is putting the West on notice that the So-
viets w,141 raise such issues if the USSR is taken to task for
failing to follow through on the Helsinki agreement.
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same issue of Pravda suggests that the Soviets are de-empha-
sizing last winter's effort to build a record of compliance on
the freer movement of peoples and ideas associated with the
Helsinki accord, and they appear nervous about the report on
An article on the European security conference in the
its implementation that is to be made in Belgrade next year.
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