NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029000010018-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 10, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday June 10, 1976 CI NIDC 76-136C
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Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
A roR tl elease 2007/03/06 IA-RDP79T00975A029000pa,AQ1$--cret
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, June 10, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose
o in orming senior officials.
Syria has agreed to permit Algerian and Libyan troops
to "assist" in peace-keeping efforts in Lebanon, according to a
Syrian government spokesman--but Damascus seems determined not
to bow to Arab pressures for a dilution of its military role
there.
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam finally arrived in
Cairo yesterday for the Arab League meeting, and apparently was
able to qualify further the League's resolution on a joint Arab
peace-keeping force for Lebanon. According to the new ground
rules, "all parties" involved in the dispute must agree on the
size of the force.
Damascus' statement yesterday that it will accept Al-
gerian and Libyan forces suggests that the Syrians intend to use
their veto to block the League's earlier plan for a broad force
composed of troops from Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the Palestine Lib-
eration Organization, in addition to Libya, Algeria, and Syria.
Khaddam apparently was also able to persuade his col-
leagues to include in the resolution a. statement that the PLO
must adhere to previous agreements with the Lebanese government
that regulate Palestinian freedoms. These agreements prohibit
the Palestinians from bearing arms outside the refugee camps
and limit the size and type of weapons inside the camps.
I I Although the Syrians almost certainly recognize that
the agreements cannot be fully implemented, reference to them
in the resolution is a direct slap at the PLO and would seem to
rule out Palestinian participation in any peace-keeping arrange-
ments.
It is not clear, in fact, that Syria intends to permit
even the Algerian and Libyan contingents to enter Lebanon. The
troops, according to Syria's announcement, are to arrive in Da-
mascus where the Syrians can control their movements and their
armament.
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Syria's Own Ends
I lEven while making its gesture toward pan-Arab partici-
-1 pation in the Lebanon peace-keeping effort, Syria has made it
clear that it will use this participation for its own ends. A
Syrian spokesman yesterday announced bluntly that Damascus wel-
comes any Arab help to "save the Palestinian revolution from
the plot" that Fatah has been conducting against it.
I iSyria's agreement to share its role in Lebanon at
least nominally appears to be a carefully calculated effort to
minimize interference without totally alienating other Arab
states that are increasingly uneasy about Syria's growing role.
//Damascus has a particular interest in main-
aining the good will of Algeria and Libya. Libya has under-
taken its mediation with a view toward ultimately enlisting
Syria in a bloc of radical Arab states; the Syrians are not
likely to go along but are interested in the financial aid Libya
is offering as an inducement.//
Iraq's Stand
I IIraq, which was pointedly omitted from even the Arab
League's list of potential participants for a pan-Arab force
for Lebanon, is frustrated by having its impotence exposed by
Syria's military operations there. In an attempt to regain some
prestige, President Bakr yesterday staged a farewell ceremony
for Iraqi units that were "to take their positions on the Arab
front."
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This cryptic reference is probably an expression of
Iraq's hope that its forces will be permitted to take part in
a peace-keeping force in Lebanon. It is probably also intended
to intimidate Syria.
Syria is not likely to agree readily either to the
stationing of Iraqi troops in Syria or to their transit across
Syria to Lebanon, and Iraq no doubt recognizes this. The Iraqis
probably wish, however, to be in a position to take advantage
of any move against Syrian President Asad. They are well aware
of unrest in Syria and probably hope to encourage it by station-
ing their troops on the border.
Military Action
Khaddam's participation in tailoring the Arab League
resolution yesterday suggests that Syria has tacitly--at least--
endorsed the earlier resolution's call for a cease-fire in Leba-
non.
We see no indications that Syrian or Syrian-controlled
e ayeen forces have called off their military operations in
either southern or central Lebanon.
//The Syrians have established a large new command
post dust. inside the Syrian border opposite Al Masna, presumably
to control their military operations in Lebanon. The US defense
.attache in Damascus believes that nearly all of Syria's 3rd
Armored Division has now been committed to Lebanon.//
Fighting was heavy yesterday near the southern port
city of Sidon, which has long been a stronghold of radical Pal-
estinian and Lebanese leftist groups.
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Some Syrian forces may have bypassed Sidon north to
Khaldah. Syrian and Saiqa troops have been battling independent
fedayeen and Lebanese leftist groups there for control of roads
into Beirut and the nearby international airport.
Fighting has diminished in the Tripoli area, in the
predominantly Christian areas north of Zahlah, and in the Bekaa
Valley. Syrian forces reportedly are gradually establishing con-
trol of these areas. In the east they are disarming and in some
cases arresting remnants of fedayeen and Lebanese Arab Army units
that had been resisting Syrian occupation.
A group of officers representing both brigades of the
Liberation Army normally under Syrian control yesterday broad-
cast a statement declaring their allegiance to Arafat. They con-
demned Syria's attacks on Palestinians in Lebanon and appealed
to all Liberation Army units to support Palestinian and Leba-
nese leftist forces.
Pressed by Syria's military initiatives and an un-
precedented barrage of anti-Fatah propaganda from Damascus,
Palestinian leaders are showing signs of the same defensiveness
and hysteria that they exhibited during the 1970 and 1971 clashes
between the fedayeen and the Jordanian army.
Fatah leaders almost certainly are now concerned that
Damascus may attempt to follow through with its increasingly
frequent threats to remove Arafat as head of the Palestine Lib-
eration Organization.
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their
.hown
to
Soviet displeasure is evident in yesterday's Tass
statement, the central concern of which is Syria, although it
also warns both the US and France against military intervention
in Lebanon.
The statement calls on all states to refrain from in-
terference in Lebanon. It questions Syrian intentions, saying
that while Damascus has "time and again" claimed only to be seek-
ing to stop the bloodshed, the fighting has intensified and is
jeopardizing Palestinian interests.
//The senior Soviet military attache in Damascus
was far more blunt in criticizing Syria during a conversation
with his US counterpart on Tuesday. The Soviet said his embassy
was "quite confused and unhappy" over the commitment of major
Syrian units in Lebanon, viewing their apparent intention as the
destruction of the Palestinian-leftist coalition.//
//In an unusual display of Soviet bitterness toward
Damascus, the attache said the entry of main-line Syrian forces
into Lebanon last week was designed to embarrass Premier Kosygin.
The attache said that Damascus had not taken Moscow into its
confidence and that no Soviet advisers were with the Syrian
troops.//
//The Soviet attache called the Syrian actions dan-
I an said that they carry a considerable risk of failure.//
//These public and private Soviet comments acknowl-
11
edge that Kosygin's visit failed to resolve the Syrian-Palestin-
ian rift. They do not, however, contain any indication that Mos-
cow is considering direct pressure on Damascus. Palestinian and
leftist Lebanese leaders have been urging the Soviets to curtail
the flow of Soviet arms and munitions into Syria.//
Although the Tass statement seemed aimed at cautioning
tion was for
ri
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p
y presc
Syria, it did not contain threats. Its on
//The Soviets are publicly and privately voicing
dissatisfaction with Syrian actions in Lebanon, but have
no sign that they intend to use their substantial leverage
rein in Damascus.//
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R_l sides to stop fighting immediately, suggesting that Moscow
,;till hopes to find a way out of !_he Lebanese prop '!,,,ra t.hal dt,n
>t disrupt its ties with either the Palestinians or Syrians.
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Japanese government officials are cautioning the US
against accelerating the pace of Sino-US normalization.
oreign Minister Miyazawa told Secretary Richardson
in late May that, from Tokyo's point of view, the present Sino-
US relationship is "very good," and he expressed the hope that
Washington would not attempt to alter this relationship.
Mivazawa argued that the establishment of full US dip-
lomatic relations with China would not. yield anything of "mate-
rial value" and that the US and China can maintain the status
quo indefinitely. He claimed the Chinese are satisfied with this
arrangement.
Mivazawa may have been prompted to express this con-
cern by widespread Japanese press coverage of recent speculation
in the US that Washington might rapidly normalize relations with
China after the November election.
In Tokyo's view, a sudden break in US relations with
the Chinese Nationalists might jeopardize Taiwan's political
stability, threatening Japan's profitable trade and investment
links with the island and complicating its relations with Pe-
king. The Japanese, moreover, probably believe that rapid nor-
malization of US ties with China would afford Peking greater
leverage in negotiating a peace and friendship treaty with Tokyo,
the last outstanding issue in the Sino-Japanese normalization
process.
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I I The USSR and the Philippines were able to agree on
even less during President Marcos' first state visit to the
USSR than they initially anticipated, judging by the "joint
statement" issued at the end of the visit.
I IMarcos agreed to endorse only a few of the most innoc-
uous Soviet foreign policy positions common in such documents,
and even these endorsements were considerably toned down from
what the Soviets had wanted. The focus of the document is almost
entirely on bilateral relations and Asia.
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both sides probably regard the visit as a success. Diplomatic
relations were established, and a trade agreement was signed.
Marcos told US Ambassador Stoessel he was pleased with Soviet
hospitality.
The Soviets also tried to make a favorable impres-
sion on Mrs. Marcos, who is widely believed eager to succeed
her husband. They consistently gave her prominent coverage, al-
ways referring to her by her official titles as mayor of greater
Manila and head of the Soviet-Philippine Friendship Society.
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//The French aircraft carrier Foch left the Atlan-
tic yesterday for its new home port at Toulon in the Mediterra-
nean. Earlier this week, the helicopter carrier Jeanne d'Arc be-
gan the opposite transit from Toulon to its home port at Brest,
and the aircraft carrier Clemenceau returned to Toulon following
a visit to Egypt.//
//The Jeanne d'Arc was ordered to join the Medi-
terranean fleet in late April while en route to Brest after.a
long tour of duty in the Indian. Ocean. The change apparently
was a precautionary move because of the continuing tensions in
the eastern Mediterranean.//
//The transfer of the Foch has been scheduled since
January 1975 for sometime this year; the ship's presence in the
Mediterranean now will greatly strengthen France's air attack
capability in the area.//
//The transfer of both aircraft carriers to the
Mediterranean is part of a major reorganization of the French
navy. France has been increasing its naval presence in the Medi-
terranean to underscore its continuing political and economic
interests there.//
//In addition to the carriers, France is expected
to add T guided-missile cruiser and two frigates to its Medi-
terranean fleet later his year. 25X1
The momentum behind the Spanish reform program was
slowed yesterday when the government withdrew from parliamen-
tary consideration its bill to revise the penal code and re-
turned it to committee for further study. The action was taken
after news of the murder of the mayor of a Basque town so an-
gered the parliament that there was doubt that the bill would
pass.
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I I This development occurred just after the parliament
had approved by a large majority the government's important bill
to legalize political parties, which were outlawed under Franco
to give a monopoly to his National Movement.
The strong opposition of the rightists to the latter
bill--which forced debate on the bill into a second day--sug-
gests that they will dig in their heels against creation of a
bicameral legislature, establishment of a free trade union or-
ganization, and enactment of a new electoral law. The government
is confident, however, that it has the votes to pass the remain-
der of its program.
I IThe government's hand was strengthened by public ap-
prova o King Juan Carlos' statements supporting liberalization
during his US visit last week. In addition, the government has
received the support of an important reformist, regime-oriented
Christian Democratic group that previously had been highly crit-
ical of the reform program.
The opposition parties are still disgruntled because
the new law does not legalize the Communist Party, and are leav-
ing open the question of their participation in the referendum
planned for October and the subsequent elections. They would
prefer to have the Communists compete openly in order to reveal
the party's narrow base of support and to reduce the possibility
of the leftist parties' being infiltrated by the Communists.
The government is adamant in refusing to legalize the
Communist Party, and there is strong opposition within the mili-
tary to such a move. Interior Minister Fraga has said, however,
that once a democratic system is well established, legalization
of the party could be reconsidered.
The government is completing work on the proposals it
will submit to the parliament to revamp the corporate labor or-
ganization established by the late Francisco Franco.
I I The minister of the government-controlled :Labor organi-
zation said in a telecast this week that the government has
drafted a law permitting both management and workers--now locked
together in the official Syndical Organization--to organize sep-
arate unions, each enjoying full autonomy.
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I /An attempt by the Conservative Party to topple
British Prime Minister Callaghan's government on a vote of con-
fidence was defeated yesterday by a vote of 309 to 290.//
//The censure motion was ill-timed. The good eco-
nomic and political news earlier this week strengthened the
pound's position on foreign exchange markets. Conservative back-
benchers were reportedly opposed to forcing a confidence vote
at this time, but were overruled by party leaders, who probably
felt committed to following through on their attack despite
sterling's recovery//
//The Conservatives still scored a few points 25X1
against the Labor Party's economic policies. The government is
vulnerable on such issues as excessive spending and borrowing,
which are the basic reasons for the pound's decline.
I A UN conference to establish an international fund
tor agricultural development to finance projects in developing
countries opens in Rome today. A number of events during the
past month threaten the fund's establishment and, at a minimum,
may force a renegotiation of some of the fund's basic provi-
sions.
There are two major stumbling blocks, primarily po-
etical., that may delay establishment of the fund and prevent
it from securing the $1 billion to be contributed equally by
the developed states and OPEC members. Last month OPEC announced
that it would not agree to an equal split between the two groups
and announced a pledge of $400 million rather than $500 million.
Continued OPEC unwillingness to increase its pledge--
as seems likely--may lead to a reduction in the contributions
of some developed countries as well. If the fund is to survive
in any form, the initial capitalization target may have to be
considerably reduced, although this alone would not eliminate
the problem of apportioning the contributions of OPEC and the
developed countries.
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The decision of the Cyprus government to advance to
September 5 the date for parliamentary elections will benefit
President Makarios' leftist and centrist supporters. They are
better organized than are the supporters of Makarios' main ri-
val, House of Representatives President Glafkos Clerides.
The shortening of the pre-election period by four
weeks, coupled with a successful purge of Clerides from the 25X1
House leadership, would cause further confusion among Clerides'
supporters in the center and right and might even prompt him
once again to consider quitting politics.
Factional squabbling among Finland's Communists domi-
nated the recent congress of the party's electoral front organ-
ization, the Finnish People's Democratic League. The moderate,
relatively liberal faction of the front strengthened its control
by winning 16 of the 20 seats on the executive council. Dele-
gate support for the hard-liners dropped to less than 20 percent,
down several percentage points from three years ago.
The gains made by the liberals should strengthen their
hand in dealing with the hard-liners, who oppose continued Commu-
nist participation in the center-left coalition government. The
fate of the coalition hung in the balance last December when
the hard-liners opposed communist participation in the govern-
ment and again last month when they wanted to withdraw from the
government over the issue of raising the sales tax.
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The league endorsed President Kekkonen as its candi-
date in the 1978 presidential election. Kekkonen also has the
endorsement of the Conservative, Liberal, and Social Democratic
parties. He has agreed to be the candidate of his own Center
Party, and the Swedish People's Party is expected to endorse
the 76-year-old leader later this month.
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