NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010038-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: May 22, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday May 22, 1976 CI NIDC 76-121C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday May 22, 1976.
IT he NID Cable is tor the purpose
of informing senior US officials.
Fighting in most areas of Lebanon continued to sub-
side yesterday,. although leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt has still
not publicly approved a new truce agreement.
Jumblatt and his allies say they are studying a pro-
posal for renewed negotiations presented to them on Wednesday
by president-elect Ilyas Sarkis. Most Lebanese politicians be-
lieve Jumblatt favors a cease-fire, but suspect that he is bar-
gaining for new conditions.
Jumblatt may be using recently won public support
from other Arab capitals to strengthen his position. The left-
ists have been playing up pledges of support they received yes-
terday from the Algerian ambassador to Lebanon and from a spe-
cial Iraqi delegation. These endorsements appear to have been
prompted by Libyan Prime Minister Jallud's announcement early
this week that Libya fully supports Jumblatt's "progressive
front."
I Algeria and Iraq do not want to appear to be lagging
behind the Libyans in support of the Lebanese left or to miss
any opportunity that Jallud may have opened up for greater out-
side influence in Lebanon. Some Lebanese are concerned that
Libya is orchestrating an effort to draw the Syrians closer to
its own militant position on broader Middle East issues in ex-
change for help from Libya, Algeria, and Iraq in solving the
Lebanese crisis.
Despite Jumblatt's stalling, Sarkis and other Leba-
nese officials are moving ahead with plans for the "post cease-
fire" period. All members of the Lebanese security forces have
been ordered to return to their posts and warned that they will
be punished if they disobey the order. The security forces melted
away during the heavy fighting last year when they were carrying
the major burden for patrolling disputed areas.
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An announcement yesterday by dissident General Ahdab
that he was officially ending his so-called military uprising
that began in March may also have been engineered by Sarkis.
Ahdab never actually carried out a coup nor has he had any
real following among Lebanese army officers, but his announce-
ment should help alleviate the bitterness and chaos among Leba-
non's armed forces.
Remarks by Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Carlos Rafael
Rodriguez at a press conference in Tokyo on Thursday reflected
the standard Cuban line on Africa and the US and did not in-
dicate any change in policy.
//His pledge that Cuba would not send "troops" to
Rhodesia is little more than a recognition that the situation
there is different from that in Angola./-
Rodriguez made a distinction between Rhodesia and
Angola by saying troops were sent to Angola to help the "legit-
imate government" there. Any Rhodesian rebel group that decided
to declare itself the legitimate government of Rhodesia could
presumably meet Rodriguez' criterion for intervention by Cuban
troops--if Havana believed the time was right for it.
The key factors affecting a Cuban decision to inter-
vene in Rhodesia will continue to be Moscow's attitude and the
position of such countries as Zambia, Tanzania, and Mozambique.
Havana is unlikely to act contrary to Soviet wishes, nor would
the Cubans risk their good relations with African moderates.
Open Cuban involvement in military operations is unlikely so
long as African leaders believe the Smith government can be
removed through indigenous guerrilla warfare.
Rodriguez' comments on the possibility of relations
with the US were a reiteration of the long-held Cuban position
that no progress can be made while the US persists in its eco-
nomic denial campaign. His figures on Cubans serving abroad
were inaccurate generalizations, and his characterization of
them as exclusively civilian was patently false; the Cuban mili-
tary presence in countries such as Somalia, Guinea, Guinea-
Bissau, and Equatorial Guinea is well documented.
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//Rodriguez was trying--as other top Cuban offi-
cials have been doing through diplomatic channels--to play down
Cuba's military activities abroad. He did so in part to mollify
Moscow, to reassure his Japanese hosts, and to counter criticism
of the Cuban military role in Angola being voiced in Europe,
Latin America, and in some countries in Africa.//
Tokyo is on the verge of ratifying the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty after more than five years of debate. Final
approval is expected on Monday, the last day of the current Diet
session, when the upper house is scheduled to vote on the treaty.
As with the approval of the treaty by the lower house
late last month, upper house passage will largely be the result
of the government's compromise with the Socialist and Clean Gov-
ernment parties over an accompanying resolution which reaffirms
Japan's basic non-nuclear policies.
The opposition parties had been concerned that ratifi-
cation would prompt Tokyo to tighten its military ties with the
US and perhaps provide justification for the entry of US nuclear
weapons into Japan.
I IFor several years, right-wing opponents of the treaty
within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party had blocked even con-
sideration of it in the Diet, despite the party's general support
for the pact. The ranks of the right wingers have gradually thin-
ned, however, and in the face of the compromise between the gov-
ernment and the opposition parties, their numbers are no longer
sufficient to prevent ratification.
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The recent call-ups of civilian reservists in
Romania were part of an unannounced but planned mobilization
and alert exercise.
US diplomats have also heard that a demobilization
is either in progress or will soon take place, and other sources
have predicted a "stand-down" by late May. The mobilization co-
incides with a scheduled field training exercise in the Dobrudja
of two divisions of the Second Army that began on May 17.
The sudden call-ups, following closely a period of
heightened anti-Soviet propaganda in Romania, reportedly
alarmed the public. The US embassy reports, however, that
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panic buying in Bucharest has subsided considerably. In the
absence of any coherent official explanation of the military
moves, rumors continue to circulate that the alert is related
to an unspecified Soviet provocation.
We have no indications of any Soviet troop move-
ments or exercises along the Romanian border that might have
led to the alert.
The US defense attache in Sofia reports that a
combined air and ground force exercise may soon take place in
the Bulgarian Dobrudja. The Romanians may fear that Moscow will
use this exercise as an excuse to request transit rights for a
Soviet military convoy to cross the Dobrudja. Bucharest, for
its part, has scheduled a tactical exercise involving a border
defense brigade for May 24 to 26.
Bucharest has consistently refused to grant Moscow
blanket rights for such transits, but has allowed three cross-
ings since March 1972.-F
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Some 50 terrorists on Thursday fire-bombed a tene-
ment in Kingston where supporters of the opposition Jamaican
Labor Party lived.
I The incident is part of the politically motivated
violence in the slums of the capital that has been marked by
assassinations and shootouts between militants of the Labor
and People's National parties. Several dozen deaths on both
sides have been reported in the past month. In the attack on
Thursday, 10 were killed and 500 made homeless.
I The killings on Thursday are certain to draw retalia-
tion in kind unless Prime Minister Manley imposes more stringent
measures on his party's gunmen and reins in the radical offi-
cials who control them. His recent efforts to establish joint
military-police command posts in selected slum areas and to
deputize nonpartisan civilian patrols to help the police main-
tain order have proven ineffective.
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I On Thursday, Manley imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew
an ca e up all army reserves. He will probably be forced to
have troops occupy all slum neighborhoods affected by the vio-
lence, but he has thus far shown a reluctance to do this.
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