NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028900010018-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2005
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: May 11, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
N2 699
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 11, 1976
In accordance with a decision of the Director of Central Intelligence, concurred
in by NFIB principals, the National Intelligence Bulletin ceases publication with this
issue.
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
LEBANON: Christians press attack as
Sarkis receives congratulations . . .
ISRAEL: Cabinet bans settlement
in Samaria region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
FRENCH TERRITORY OF THE AFARS
AND ISSAS: Setback for Ali Aref . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
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CHILE: Junta relaxing some
human rights policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
INDIA-USSR: Gandhi to
visit Moscow in June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
USSR: Brezhnev appointed
Marshal of the Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
Christian forces continued to press their offensive in the mountains east of
Beirut yesterday, despite the obvious risks to their political victory over the Muslim
leftists in the presidential election last weekend.
The Christian strategy apparently was to recapture a number of Christian
villages on the eve of the election in the hope of improving their bargaining position
in future peace talks. The problem now is that neither side is willing or able to stop
the fighting, which threatens to spread.
Christian forces launched artillery attacks on a number of leftist positions and
reportedly regained some ground near the villages of Tarshish and Aynturah. In most
areas the leftists appear to be holding firm. The greatest danger in the current
situation is that Fatah commandos based at Aynturah will be drawn into the battle.
Some Fatah units apparently have already joined the fight, and the Palestine
Liberation Organization has issued a sharp warning to the Christians that it will aid
the leftists if the fighting continues.
President-elect Ilyas Sarkis is reportedly working with the tripartite truce
committee and Yasir Arafat to arrange a new cease-fire that presumably would be
enforced by Syrian-controlled Palestinian troops based in the mountain area. Sarkis
plans to meet with Christian leaders today or tommorrow; his ability to persuade
them to accept a new truce will be the first major test of his leadership. An appeal
by Phalanges leader Jumayyil yesterday for an end to the fighting suggests that he,
at least, may be prepared to go along with Sarkis.
Sarkis received congratulations yesterday from a broad spectrum of Lebanese
politicians including Interior Minister Shamun, who has not been among Sarkis'
supporters. Sarkis' attempts to arrange a meeting with Kamal Jumblatt, however,
have so far been unsuccessful. In a brief statement made late yesterday, Jumblatt
toned down his earlier sharp warnings and avoided mentioning Sarkis' election. The
leftist leader said he had been in telephone contact with Sarkis and that a
comprehensive statement of the leftist position would be issued today. According to
one leftist spokesman, Jumblatt is awaiting a "gesture" from Sarkis.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
Despite these hopeful signs, Jumblatt will probably not meet with Sarkis until
he can more accurately determine the political repercussions of the current fighting.
If it continues, Jumblatt may be able to shift the blame for the political impasse to
the Christians.
Most Arab capitals have refrained from extensive comment on Sarkis' election,
apparently because of the controversy over Syria's role in the campaign and the
uncertainty over whether the new president will be able to assume office.
Israeli commentators are openly pessimistic. They doubt that Sarkis' election
will result in a breakthrough toward solving the Lebanese crisis. Israel's largest daily
commented that his chances of solving Lebanon's problems are no better than were
those of President Franjiyah. An editorial in Israel's only English-language daily
called Sarkis' election a victory for Syria and a blow to the Palestinians and the
Egyptians. Israeli officials have not yet commented on the election E
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
The Israeli cabinet's decision on Sunday barring the establishment of a
permanent Jewish settlement near Sebastia in the West Bank's Samaria region leaves
unresolved the explosive issue of finding an alternative government-approved site for
the settlers.
According to the cabinet's communique, the government will offer the settlers
a new site in the near future. The settlers are demanding that they be relocated in
Samaria. They want to force the government to reverse its long-held policy of
prohibiting Jewish settlements in the region, which is heavily populated by Arabs.
A minister from the conservative Religious Party voiced strong support for the
settlers after emerging from Sunday's cabinet session. He called for a stepped-up
settlement effort over the next several weeks, pending a government decision on
alternative sites.
The extremist Gush Emunim religious settlement group, which is sponsoring
the settlers, yesterday launched what may be only the first in a series of mass
demonstrations protesting the cabinet's decision and demanding that the
government support the right of Jews to settle anywhere in the West Bank.
The ruling coalition's left-wing Mapam Party strongly opposes the Gush
Emunim's demands. It favors limiting settlements to strategically important
locations in order to leave open the option of territorial compromise in peace
negotiations with the Arabs. Mapam is likely to organize counterdemonstrations
protesting the efforts of the pro-settlement groups.
Arab governments have not yet reacted to the Israeli cabinet's decision. They
will be highly critical of the Israeli government for not immed;ately forcing the
illegal settlers near Sebastia to move and for pledging to increase Jewish settlements
elsewhere in the Israeli-occupied territories.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
FRENCH TERRITORY OF THE AFARS AND ISSAS
May 11, 1976
Prime Minister Ali Aref continues to suffer political setbacks. Three associates
have resigned from the government in the past few days, as well as from the ruling
National Independence Union Party. This raises the parliamentary opposition to at
least 19 out of the 40 deputies.
The resignation of Muhammed Elabe, the minister of public works, transport,
and tourism and Aref's closest confidant, was probably the catalyst for the other
two resignations. Elabe reportedly resigned in protest over the security forces'
handling of anti-Aref demonstrations in his home town.
There appears to be little Ali Aref can do to arrest the continuing erosion of his
position. The pro-Somali opposition party, the African People's Independence
League, is determined to oust him prior to independence. Many Afar tribal leaders,
Aref's main supporters, have steadily shifted into opposition because of his close
relations with the Ethiopian military government-which is conducting a military
campaign against Afars in Ethiopia-personal rivalries, and his inability to solve
internal problems.
Aref's reverses place France in a troublesome position. Paris still plans to hand
over power to Ali Aref upon independence. At present, no other political figure in
the territory has the necessary following to replace Aref. His loss of support within
his own party and parliament will further complicate France's independence
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 Approved For Relea
National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
In the wake of Secretary Simon's visit last week, the military junta appears to
be signaling its intention to relax some of its policies for handling human rights. In
addition to releasing 49 political prisoners, including four high officials of the
former Allende government, the junta has pledged to expedite requests for parole.
Officials of President Pinochet's government have also indicated an intent to
resume talks with the UN Human Rights Commission, broken off last July when
Pinochet abruptly barred the visit of the commission's investigating team. That
decision provoked severe criticism from the UN and Western countries that had
supported the UN bid. At its meeting in February, the UN commission issued a
report condemning Santiago's internal security practices; the report was based
largely on accounts by Chilean exiles.
The government's agreement to reopen discussions with the UN group could
lead to talks on ground rules for a new look at Chile's human rights record and
possibly a visit by an international fact-finding group, though this is by no means
guaranteed.
In his talks with Secretary Simon, Foreign Minister Carvajal claimed that at
least 41 officials have been prosecuted for human rights abuses. Public knowledge of
government efforts to curb maltreatment by punishing those responsible should have
a sobering impact on security forces and should improve Chile's standing abroad.
Further progress on human rights may be achieved as the Pinochet government
prepares for the meeting of the OAS General Assembly in Santiago next month. The
Inter-American Human Rights Commission has the Chilean situation on the agenda,
providing extra incentive to show proof that security practices are being reformed.
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's planned visit to Moscow from June 8 to 12,
which was announced over the weekend, will be her first trip to the Soviet
Union-India's closest ally-since 1971.
India's internal political problems, which led to the imposition of a national
emergency last June, probably account in large part for Gandhi's repeated
postponement of plans to reciprocate General Secretary Brezhnev's trip to India in
1973. With the domestic situation now under control, her government is giving
increased attention to foreign affairs.
In Moscow, Gandhi will probably express appreciation for Soviet support of
her authoritarian moves under the emergency. She is not likely, however, to reverse
India's long-standing refusal to grant special port privileges for Soviet naval ships.
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Earlier this year, New Delhi shifted the emphasis of its foreign policy
somewhat, with a view toward improving relations with China and Pakistan while
maintaining close ties with the USSR. India will soon send an ambassador to Peking
for the first time since 1961, the year before the Sino-Indian war I
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
May 11, 1976
The appointment of General Secretary Brezhnev as Marshal of the Soviet Union
on Saturday may be a step toward publicly recognizing him as the official having
formal command authority over the armed forces in peacetime. The rank was
conferred by decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet.
Brezhnev reportedly has already been designated to act as supreme commander
in chief in the event of war, but there has been no evidence that he has had any
unilateral authority to issue orders to the armed forces in peacetime.
The appointment late last month of Dmitry Ustinov, a fellow civilian Politburo
member, as defense minister has accentuated the need for creation of a more
comprehensive, unified military-political command structure for the armed forces.
Brezhnev becomes the first top Soviet party leader since Stalin to hold such a high
military rank, one grade above that of Ustinov, who was made a General of the
Army when he was appointed defense minister.
The Tass announcement also reiterated the recent public identification of
Brezhnev as chairman of the Defense Council, a subcommittee of the Politburo that
considers national security matters.
party leader was unveiled in his home town, Dneprodzerzhinsk. This is the first time
Brezhnev has been so honored.
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