NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028800010050-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2005
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: April 29, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
April 29, 1976
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 29, 1976
CONTENTS
USSR-EGYPT: Trade agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
SPAIN: Arias details
reform program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
PORTUGAL: Popular Democrats reconsider
threat to leave the government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
FRANCE: Student unrest subsiding . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
FRANCE: Helicopter carrier to
Mediterranean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
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National Intelligence. Bulletin April 29, 1976
Yesterday's signing in Moscow of the 1976 Soviet-Egyptian trade protocol may
represent an effort by both countries to keep at least some lines open to each other.
Senior officials of both countries had been claiming that existing economic ties
would be continued.
The document was signed by Egyptian Foreign Trade Minister Tawfiq and
Nikolay Patolichev, his Soviet counterpart, following a series of discussions which
began on April 26. Under the terms of the protocol, this year's trade is valued at
$640 million, down by about one-third from the 1975 level. Egypt will export
cotton, rice, and leather goods in exchange for Soviet coal, lumber, and petroleum
products. The agreement provides for an Egyptian surplus of $142 million this year
for debt service. The two sides also reportedly began negotiations for a five-year
trade agreement.
The conclusion of the trade protocol will, at least for the short term, stabilize
the atmosphere for future discussions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Prime Minister Arias' speech to the nation yesterday was the most detailed
presentation of the government's reform program yet, but it will satisfy neither the
opposition forces on the left nor the proponents of the status quo on the right.
Responding to pressures from King Juan Carlos and reform-minded ministers,
Arias outlined specific reform measures and a timetable for their implementation.
His call for a referendum on constitutional reforms by next October and general
elections early in 1977, however, sets a more leisurely pace than reformers such as
Foreign Minister Areilza had been urging.
The Prime Minister said that all reform measures, except the electoral law,
would be ready for submission to parliament by May 15. These are to include
constitutional provisions on monarchical succession and the establishment of a
bicameral legislature, both of which are to be the topics for the referendum. There
will also be revisions of the penal code and of laws restricting freedom of assembly
and association.
The government's proposal for widening suffrage would be submitted by July
15, according to Arias. Arias said he trusted that the Cortes would act on his
proposals in time for the King to call the referendum on schedule, an indication that
he is concerned over possible rightist obstructionism in the present parliament. Arias
warned that the government's call for expanded political liberties does not extend to
extremists on the left or the right who want totalitarianism. This serves as a
reaffirmation of the government's ainst legalizing the Communist Party.
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National Intelligence Bulletin April 29, 1976
Portugal's Popular Democratic Party appears to have backed away from
Secretary General Sa Carneiro's threat to leave the government unless the
Communists are removed and the Socialists drop their plans to form a minority
coalition.
A statement issued after a meeting on Tuesday between Sa Carneiro and the
party executive said that Popular Democratic ministers do not intend to raise the
question of their immediate resignation, but neither do they seek to "impose their
presence" on the Council of Ministers. The party will leave the decision of a cabinet
shuffle to Prime Minister Azevedo.
The party's backtracking was probably influenced by the army General Staff,
which, according to the US army attache, told Sa Carneiro it wanted to avoid a crisis
over the provisional government that could be used by President Costa Gomes as a
pretext for remaining in office.
The Popular Democrats' announcement seems likely to relieve some of the
pressure on both the parties and the military to reach an early decision on the
composition of the new government. Maneuvering will continue, however, and is
likely to be intensified as the selection of presidential candidates becomes part of
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National Intelligence Bulletin April 29, 1976
The student and faculty strikes and demonstrations that have disrupted French
universities for the last six weeks appear to be subsiding.
The protesters seem to be responding favorably to the government's decision to
modify implementation of its proposed changes in the university system that were
designed to make curricula more relevant to the job market. In a compromise
worked out with university presidents who supported the student protesters, the
government reportedly agreed that traditional liberal arts courses will still be
available.
the universities.
The strikes have not been formally called off by student and faculty leaders,
and scattered clashes with police are still occurring, but the largest student union is
urging its members to return to their classes, according to press reports. Some radical
student leaders, however, remain undaunted by the waning student support for the
protests and the workers' failure to join them. On Tuesday they were able to force a
call for continued protests through the strike coordinating committee. They also are
calling on their followers to join the marches planned by labor unions on May Day
and demanding a televised debate with the senior government official in charge of
standby notice because of continuing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.
The French navy has ordered its helicopter carrier Jeanne d'Arc, en route home
after a tour of duty in the Indian Ocean, to change course and join the French fleet
in the Mediterranean. It will remain there until June or July, when it will be relieved
by the aircraft carrier Foch.
According to the commander of France's Atlantic squadron, the Jeanne d'Arc
was being sent to the Mediterranean for "operational reasons." The US defense
attaches in Paris speculate that the French may have decided to place the ship on
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