NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028800010028-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: April 16, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
April 16, 1976
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
LEBANON: Fighting flares in mountains,
but generally cease-fire holds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
ITALY: Election decision imminent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
UK: Economic prospects brighter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
WESTERN SAHARA: Legal status
remains contentious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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USSR: Food shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
EGYPT: New mobilization plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
PERU: Efforts to
oust President easing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
MEXICO: Urban land-use
legislation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
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L E B A
Bayt hahah
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
Fighting flared up in Lebanon yesterday as Christian militiamen seized two
villages in the mountainous region east of Beirut. The Christian advances apparently
triggered moves by leftist forces on Christian-held territory in the capital. None of
the principal combatants has formally renounced the cease-fire, however, and so far
the escalation of fighting has not prompted any new advances by Syrian forces or
the introduction of additional troops.
The Christians claim they seized the towns of Bayt Shabab and Duhur ash
Shuwayr because of persistent mortar shelling from the two villages. There may be
some truth, however, in charges from leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt that the
Christians are trying to provoke a leftist counterattack in order to draw Syrian
regular forces in central Lebanon closer to Beirut.
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Syrian troops based in Beirut apparently have not been involved in the fighting
there, which appears to be concentrated in the areas adjacent to the large Christian
section of Ashrafiyah. Some Syrian forces in Tripoli, however, appear to have
clashed with local leftists and elements of the renegade Muslim army.
The sudden increase in fighting-although clearly a threat to the truce-is
largely an extension of the intense political maneuvering. Both the Christians and
the leftists want to improve their positions on the ground before the final round of
bargaining over President Franjiyah's successor. Moreover, the controversy over
Syrian intervention and the stability of the cease-fire are now key issues in the
presidential contest.
Ilyas Sarkis, the preferred candidate of the Syrians and Maronite Christians, is
believed to favor a major peace-keeping role for Syria, while Jumblatt's choice,
Raymond Edde, totally rejects the idea.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
Despite Edde's and Jumblatt's strong objections, Muslim support for Syria's
continued presence appears to be growing. Prime Minister Karami issued a statement
Wednesday praising Damascus and expressing hope that the Syrian forces will remain
to help the new president restore order
We have no indication of unusual Israeli military activity following Israel's
assertion that a Syrian unit-possibly of battalion size-had entered the southern
port cities of Sidon and Tyre.
The Israelis may, however, be nearing the limits of their tolerance of Syrian
military moves in Lebanon. If the Syrians build up their forces in Sidon and
especially in Tyre, which is south of the Litani River, there is a strong possibility
that the Israelis will initiate a limited intervention into southern Lebanon.
The Israeli move would be designed to signal the Syrians to halt such
reinforcements and confine their actions to a peace-keeping role. Israel would
probably seek to avoid a direct military confrontation with any Syrian or other Arab
forces already in the south.
The Israelis may calculate that it would be easier to take early action to prevent
more Syrians from being introduced, than it would be to secure their withdrawal
later.
The Israel-Lebanon border area remains relatively quiet.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
An Israeli press report a few weeks ago also indicated that Israeli patrols
crossing into Lebanon are closely questioning local villagers about the presence of
any Syrian, Palestine Liberation Army, or fedayeen troops in the area. There have
been almost no Arab-initiated incidents along the border, no doubt explaining in
large part Israeli forebearance.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
A decision on early parliamentary elections in Italy may be imminent. Prime
Minister Moro's cabinet met last night to consider the situation in light of the
Socialist Party's call yesterday for all parties to join in asking President Leone to
dissolve parliament and schedule an election.
For the past two weeks, the Socialists have been demanding either an election
or the replacement of Prime Minister Moro's cabinet by an emergency government
that would include the Communists in its parliamentary majority.
The Christian Democrats yesterday offered a compromise proposal under
which all parties except the neo-fascists would negotiate a limited agreement on
emergency economic measures and the abortion issue. Under this plan, Moro's
minority government would remain in office, and the Communists would be
considered part of the opposition, despite their consultative role. The Socialists
immediately rejected the proposal.
Moro is in an untenable situation, because his cabinet's survival depends on
Socialist abstention in parliamentary votes, Although Moro may resign at anytime,
he reportedly favors a parliamentary debate, followed by a vote of confidence, in
order to force the Socialists to accept publicly sole responsibility for the fall of the
government.
The present parliament's term ends in May 1977. The dates most frequently
mentioned for an early election are June 13 or 20. Parliament this week passed a law
shortening the preparatory period for elections from 70 days to 45; thus dissolution
would have to occur in late April in order to hold elections by mid-June.
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National Intelligence Bulletin April 16, 1976
British retail prices posted their smallest increase in nearly two years last
month, further evidence that the Labor government's pay controls are helping to
curb inflation. The news will strengthen the government's bargaining position with
the unions over Phase I I pay controls, scheduled to take effect in August.
The 0.5-percent increase in retail prices in March was less than half the gains
recorded in January and February and the smallest increase since August 1974.
Largely due to the government's voluntary pay control program, progress on the
inflation front has been steady for several months now. Retail prices increased at an
annual rate of 16 percent over the past six months, compared with 28 percent in the
preceding six months.
These improvements will be interrupted in April. Newly imposed increases in
excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco and planned price increases by some
nationalized industries will push up prices. The 8-percent drop in the value of the
pound since early March has also increased the cost of imported raw materials and
semi-finished goods, which will ultimately be reflected in price increases for
consumer goods.
Meanwhile, the government is expected to gain much political mileage from the
March inflation figures. The Labor Party will reemphasize the need to intensify the
attack on inflation through smaller Phase II wage increases.
The government currently is tying certain tax concessions to a 3-percent limit
on wage increases. The present ceiling on wages is 11 percent a year. The Trades
Union Congress wants a 5-percent ceiling on pay increases. The figures for March
should help the union leaders gain member support for a lower pay ceiling for the
next 12 months.
On another front, the UK last month recorded its lowest monthly trade deficit
and its first current account surplus in nearly four years. The $38-million deficit
reflects record exports in March, combined with the lowest level of imports in the
last four months.
The trade figures were far better than London's financial community had
expected. The reaction on the London foreign currency markets was subdued,
probably because few traders are likely to believe that the surplus will persist. The
pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.857 after the trade figures were released on Tuesday.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
l n an attempt to establish formal sovereignty over the Western Sahara, Morocco
and Mauritania announced on Wednesday a final agreement to partition the disputed
territory. The legal status of the territory will remain contentious, however, because
Spain, Algeria, and the UN have not accepted Rabat's contention that it has held
adequate consultations with the Saharan people.
A text of the border agreement broadcast over Rabat domestic radio yesterday
says that Morocco will acquire the northern two thirds of the territory.
The partition line runs from a point above Dakhla in a straight line southeast to
the present Mauritanian border. Rabat would thus acquire the rich phosphate
reserves at Bu Craa, while Nouakchott would gain control of the lucrative fishing
industry at Dakhla and the unexploited iron ore at Agracha.
The two sides also signed an economic cooperation agreement for joint
exploitation of "all natural resources in the Sahara and its territorial waters,"
according to a joint communique released Wednesday at the end of talks between
Mauritanian President Ould Daddah and Moroccan King Hassan. Rabat presumably
offered minority participation in the phosphate mining operation in return for joint
use of the fish-processing facilities at Dakhla. Algeria is certain to condemn the
agreements as illegal.
The Algerians also hope to keep the UN involved in the dispute. They will try
to exploit a forthcoming report by a UN envoy who recently visited Spain and
Algeria. The envoy's itinerary originally included stops in Morocco and Mauritania as
well. Both countries refused to receive him because he met with Polisario Front
representatives and inspected Saharan refugee camps during his visit to Algeria.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
The Soviet harvest failure last year is increasingly causing localized food
shortages. There are reports of short supplies in rural areas which in some instances
no fresh meat since early February. Butter,
our, onions, potatoes, and other staples also are in short supply.
ever seen
the food situation so bad as now" in the Moscow suburbs.
Meat supplies will become increasingly tight; we estimate that total meat
production this year may fall by as much as 25 percent below 1975 levels. As a
result, the Soviets will be hard pressed to meet even the reduced meat production
plan for state-operated packing plants-down 18 percent from last year.
Production from the private sector, about one third of the total, may be down
even more. Scattered reports indicate difficulties in obtaining feed for privately held
livestock. In order to maintain the size of herds in the socialized sector, collective
and state farms may refuse to sell pigs to private households. These piglets from the
spring farrowing are a primary source of private-sector meat production.
Some food shortages will ease as the new crop becomes available. The regime
could also bolster meat supplies by resorting to imports.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
Cairo is studying a new mobilization plan that will permit a reduction of the
Egyptian armed forces.
According to the US defense attache, the new plan would reorganize the army
into three types of units. The first group of units would be manned to 100 percent
of authorized strength, the second group would be kept at half strength, and the
third group of units would have only enough personnel to maintain equipment. In
the event of war, the first group of units would be the first line of defense until the
second and third groups could be mobilized to full strength.
President Sadat has been concerned over the cost of maintaining a large
standing army, particularly in view of Egypt's extensive efforts to diversify and
modernize military equipment for the army. Earlier reports indicated that the
Egyptian Ministry of War was experimenting with a mobilization procedure known
as the "Swedish System," presumably patterned after Stockholm's plan whereby no
standing tactical units are maintained during peacetime. Egypt's new plan is a more
realistic approach to Cairo's defense needs and in some respects resembles the Israeli
system, for which the Egyptians have great respect.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Pressure by conservative military factions to oust President Morales Bermudez
has eased considerably following recent government actions. If Morales Bermudez
sticks to a centrist course and keeps radical elements in tow, he can probably ward
off efforts to unseat him.
The President's pledge in a major address on March 31 to adopt a more
moderate course for the revolution has dampened criticism from center-right
elements of the military regime who considered him to be falling under the influence
of leftist forces. The government has also taken measures to satisfy those who have
complained that the President is doing nothing to halt the leftward drift.
The most important of these steps include:
--The declaration of a "state of emergency" in the mining industry, enabling
the government to curb disruptive strikes instigated by left-wing labor unions.
--An announcement that the controversial Plan Tupac Amaru will be redrafted.
The radical document, intended to guide the. second stage of the revolution,
has been strongly attacked by conservative and moderate forces.
--The President's reassurance to the private sector and his encouragement to
businessmen.
--The government's decision this week to conclude a settlement compensating
the expropriated US Marcona Company.
On the .other hand, Morales Bermudez has not yet ousted leftist figures in the
cabinet like Prime Minister Fernandez Maldonado, who is likely to remain a focus of
dissension in the government. Conservative officers will be watching for signs that
leftist influence is on the upswing and plotting could intensify again.
April 16, 1976
Forces on both the right and the left will continue to struggle for control of the
revolution. It remains to be seen whether Morales Bermudez is politically astute
enough to chart a course for the Peruvian revolution that will satisfy both sides.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
April 16, 1976
A controversial piece of legislation on urban land use authored by the outgoing
Echeverria administration has sparked the most bitter business-government dispute
in recent years.
The disagreement is symptomatic of a long-standing mutual distrust between
the leftist Echeverria administration and the business community. The animosity
could carry over into the administration of Echeverria's successor, Jose Lopez
Portillo, who takes over this December.
The main purpose of the legislation, called the "human settlements" law, is to
curb land speculation by giving local governments the power to zone land for
"socially beneficial" uses. On its face, the legislation appears to be no more radical
than land zoning laws in many other Western countries. Its intent is to establish a
system that will take into account an expected huge population growth in urban
areas.
The private sector views the legislation as an unconstitutional assault on private
ownership of property and part of a trend under Echeverria toward statism.
Government proponents say the intent of the legislation is not confiscatory. Its
larger aim, they say, is to correct chaotic urban growth by channeling new migration
into sparsely settled areas and by placing restraints on land speculators.
The debate has become bitter, with administration and business community
spokesmen-mainly a powerful group of Monterrey businessmen-trading wild
accusations. Echeverria has accused the Monterrey group of secretly plotting a
Chilean-type coup against his government. Businessmen are fighting the legislation
through newspaper ads and a rumor campaign, alleging that the government is
planning to expropriate private dwellings.
As a result of the proposed law, the business community's initial enthusiasm
for Lopez Portillo as the next president has rapidly waned. Lopez Portillo has
echoed Echeverria's polemics against the businessmen's "subversive campaign," but
he is still too much in the President's shadow to take a different stand.
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