NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028600010002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 2, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
NK
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
February 2, 1976
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 2, 1976
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation report
regarding Syrian-proposed settlement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
TURKEY-CYPRUS: Turks to
begin withdrawing troops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
NATO: Talks on arms cooperation
begin today in Rome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
DENMARK: Negotiations on defense
spending to take place soon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
ALGERIA-MOROCCO: Possibility
of UN mediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
INDIA: Direct rule
in Tamil Nadu state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 2, 1976
Key Muslim and Christian leaders met separately over the weekend to review
the major ingredients in the Syrian-proposed political settlement prior to the
meeting between President Franjiyah and Syrian President Asad in Damascus this
week.
The discussions centered, predictably, on the future status of the Palestinian
guerrillas in Lebanon and on guarantees of Christian political rights, including
Maronite control of the presidency. Nothing was decided, nor were any decisions
expected prior to Franjiyah's talks with Asad.
Christian leaders have expressed satisfaction with Syria's public assurances that
it will ensure the Palestinians' compliance with the agreements regulating their
activities in Lebanon. The Muslims, in turn, have raised no objection to retaining the
tradition of a Maronite presidency, although there is no agreement over how this
principle is to be upheld.
The main discordant note continues to be struck by leftist spokesman Kamal
Jumblatt. Jumblatt accused the Christians over the weekend not only of dragging
their feet on negotiations but of planning to resume hostilities next spring. The US
embassy comments, however, that the Christians' haggling over details does not
appear to be a major obstacle to a settlement. Rather, it seems to be a face-saving
effort on their part to justify bowing to Syrian pressure and accepting Damascus'
package of political reforms.
The efforts of the higher military committee to implement the cease-fire went
relatively smoothly over the weekend, with one notable exception. On Saturday
night, Saiqa forces stormed and set fire to two pro-Iraqi newspapers in Beirut on the
pretext that the forces had been fired on from the newspaper offices. The chief
editor of one of the newspapers reportedly was kidnaped and later killed. The attack
was quickly condemned by the other members of the PLO.
1
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 2, 1976
The Turkish army announced on Saturday that it will begin withdrawing 2,000
troops from Cyprus this week.
The announcement, which comes less than two weeks before a visit to
Washington by the Turkish foreign minister and within three weeks of the
resumption of peace talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities,
apparently is aimed primarily at impressing Congress.
According to the Turks, 10,000 troops already have been withdrawn from
Cyprus since the invasion in 1974, bringing the current strength level on the island
to around 30,000. This figure is in line with US estimates, but we do not believe that
Turkish forces on Cyprus have been reduced by 10,000 men since 1974.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 2, 1976
The European members of NATO) plus France meet in Rome today for two
days of exploratory talks on European arms cooperation.
The goal of the talks is to reach agreement on a common approach to weapons
procurement and manufacture in Europe. Then the Europeans want to try to
persuade the US to increase its purchase of European arms under the "two-way
street" concept endorsed by the US.
The meeting is being held outside NATO auspices, largely in order to satisfy
French objections to association with the Alliance's integrated military command.
The other Allies share France's desire to develop a competitive European arms
industry and realize that success in such a venture requires the cooperation of
France's large arms industry. As a result, the recent NATO initiative on
trans-Atlantic arms standardization is now marking time in Brussels, awaiting the
outcome of the Europeans' efforts to "put their own house in order."
In addition to the European concern over losing an independent
arms-manufacturing capability, there has been a growing perception of the need to
define and protect Europe's security interests in an era of force-reduction
negotiations.
The differing policy interests of the Allies suggest that it will be difficult for
them to reach agreement in time for the meeting in May of the NATO foreign
ministers. The Germans, for example, are interested in a long-range accord which
will enhance the development of European integration. This objective is generally
resisted by the British, who want an early increase in arms sales to help them out of
their economic difficulties.
The French, meanwhile, decided to join the effort merely to enhance the sale
of their arms in Europe. They must proceed cautiously because of heavy domestic
opposition to any suggestion that they may be abandoning an independent defense
policy.
3
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 2, 1976
Negotiations on a new interparty Danish defense agreement, designed to
remove defense from politics, are to begin soon, with parliamentary approval
expected in March.
The important features of the current agreement, which expires next year,
probably will be preserved in the new pact. The hard bargaining will be over
,;pending levels. The Danes realize that their spending level is among the lowest in
the Alliance, but economic troubles and the relatively high unemployment rate may
preclude an increase in funding.
The final defense package will determine the level of spending for the next
four, six, or eight years, depending on the duration of the new agreement. The
defense budget will be linked to cost-of-living fluctuations, and any changes in
defense policy must be approved unanimously by the sponsoring parties.
Arne Christiansen, chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, said
recently that it is important to move quickly while majority backing is assured.
Defense Minister Moller supports the agreement, but he is in trouble politically and
May be forced to resign. It is feared his successor might not back it.
4
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 Approved For Release
Nationa
ntelligence Bulletin
February 2, 1976
A high official in the Algerian Foreign Ministry told the US ambassador on
Saturday that Algeria's main diplomatic effort toward gaining a settlement in Sahara
will be made through the UN.
The official said Algiers wants UN Secretary General Waldheim "to work for a
referendum" in Sahara. Waldheim reportedly has named an investigator to be sent to
the area.
The Algerian Foreign Ministry official said that his government wants a
political solution; if it wanted war, he said, Algiers would have reinforced the unit
that was attacked in the Sahara last week.
The Algiers press reports that special emissaries from Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and
Tunisia have suggested an urgent meeting of Arab foreign ministers to deal with the
dispute, but the Algerian official said the Boumediene government does not believe
the Arab mediation effort will produce significant Moroccan concessions.
Meanwhile, press reports from Algeria over the weekend claimed that
Algerian-backed Polisario guerrilla forces had begun laying siege to several Moroccan
and Mauritanian positions and were assaulting the Moroccan-held town of Semara,
midway between the coast and the Algerian border in northern Sahara. Semara is
strongly garrisoned, and Polisario forces are unlikely to be capable of carrying out
more than harassing attacks around the town.
The Moroccans have not confirmed any fresh attacks, but a Moroccan military
spokesman charged that Algerian regular units are now controlling several towns in
northeastern Sahara, including Mahbes and Tifariti, and are also in control of parts
of northern Mauritania.
6
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Prime Minister Gandhi's
imposition of central rule
Saturday on the southern state
of Tamil Nadu-one of two
states not ruled by her
Congress Party-was intended
to underscore her
determination to brook no
opposition to government
policies.
The leaders of the Tamil
Nadu government had
opposed the state of
emergency imposed by her
and had enforced its
provisions loosely. In addition
to dissolving the state
government and dismissing the
assembly, New Delhi has
placed a two-week ban on
meetings, processions, and
demonstrations in the state.
February 2, 1976
Prior to Gandhi's move, the state had been headed by the Dravidian Progressive
Federation, a regional party based on the loyalties of the Tamil-speaking people of
the south. Federation leaders seem inclined to avoid any violent reaction to direct
rule. They apparently recognize that agitation could prompt Gandhi to ban the
party, jail party officials, or take othE!r measures. Party leaders, however, plan to
continue holding meetings. Their first test of the government's ban could come
tomorrow when the federation traditionally commemorates the death of its founder.
Should Gandhi clamp down on the party, she would risk whipping up
traditional separatist and antigovernment sentiment among the Tamil people,
possibly resulting in violence. The Tamils have long resented what they consider to
be domination and discrimination from the north.
According to the US consul in Madras, the state capital, there are no signs of
disturbances in the city. Nevertheless, hundreds of Federation members reportedly
have been arrested, and seven army platoons have been flown to Madras to reinforce
the police.
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Top Secret
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