NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028500010052-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 52
• Publication Date: January 31, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
January 31, 1976
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 31, 1976
LEBANON: Growing Muslim impatience
with Christian negotiators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
TURKEY: Wave of violence may
acquire anti-US overtones . . .
YUGOSLAVIA: Coping with workers
returning from Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 31, 1976
Lebanon's Muslim and leftist leaders are growing increasingly impatient with
Christian negotiators, who are continuing to haggle over the terms of a political
settlement. The two sides appeared near agreement on the fundamentals of a reform
program last week, but since then they have bogged down over specifics.
Following a meeting yesterday of Muslim leaders, leftist spokesman Kamal
Jumblatt-a key figure in the negotiations--called for quick conclusion of a
settlement and implementation of a reform program within 40 days. Although
generally he is more strident than his colleagues, Jumblatt seemed to be voicing
general frustration with Christian footdragging.
An aide to President Franjiyah told US officials yesterday that the main
problem at this point involves regulation of the Palestinian presence in Lebanon. The
Christians-led by Interior Minister Shamun-have been arguing that final agreement
on political reforms must await resolution of the Palestinian issue.
Even if the Palestinian problem is resolved, the Christians may continue to
insist on nailing down their exclusive control of the presidency-a point the Muslims
have so far refused to include in a written agreement.
A potentially more dangerous problem may arise over the timetable for
implementing reforms. A leading member of the Christian Phalanges Party said
yesterday that the Christians believe they could block any basic changes until
presidential elections in September.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 31, 1976
The wave of terrorism, chronic campus unrest, and street violence that has
claimed more than 20 lives in Turkey since last fall may be taking on anti-US
overtones.
Turkish police officials have told US embassy contacts that extreme leftist
groups have formed roving bands to attack US personnel and property,
concentrating at first on an Ankara shopping district frequented by Americans. In
Ankara earlier this week, a US government vehicle was bombed. The radical Turkish
People's Liberation Army-driven underground in the early 1970s and quiet since
then-is thought to be connected with this bombing incident.
The group also figures in speculation about the murder last week of two
policemen in eastern Turkey, where recently there has been increasing evidence of
extreme leftist activity. Unconfirmed reports claimed that the four alleged
killers-three of whom have since been slain by police-were members of the
organization.
Until now, the domestic disorders have centered primarily on fighting between
left- and right-wing groups affiliated, however loosely, with the academic
community. The recent developments may reflect a fundamental change in the
tactics of the extreme left and could augur a return to the more widely focused
violence that wracked Turkey in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
With his administration already under fire for the campus disorders, Prime
Minister Demirel will do whatever he can to prevent any further leftist terrorism
from getting out of hand. The military ousted him in 1971 for his inability to do so.
Demirel has at his disposal some powers he did not have earlier, although his ability
to apply them will continue to be hampered by the presence in his coalition
government of National Action Party leader Turkes, whose right-wing followers are
involved in the disorder.
Military leaders last week vetoed use of martial law to combat the student
unrest, but they would seem likely to change their stance if terrorism should
threaten to overtax civil controls.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Belgrade seems to be coping with the return of workers from Western Europe,
despite the country's economic problems.
Because of depressed economic conditions, approximately 80,000 Yugoslavs
who had been employed abroad returned home last year, raising the net total of
returnees in 1974 and 1975 to as many as 140,000. An estimated 800,000 Yugoslavs
remain employed in Western Europe.
While the number of returnees is not great when viewed as part of a labor force
of about 9 million, more than 560,000 Yugoslavs are unemployed and the economy
is experiencing an annual inflation rate of about 25 percent. The rate of those
returning is apparently on the increase, and should this continue, it could have
serious economic and political consequences for Belgrade.
Belgrade's primary approach to date has been to encourage the creation of new
jobs in fields that have traditionally been in the private sector. The workers have
been urged to invest their savings in local enterprises, and West European countries
are being encouraged to provide technical education and other assistance to those
returning to Yugoslavia. Yugoslav officials are apparently willing to subordinate
ideological beliefs in order to deal with the more immediate problems created by the
workers' return.
The Yugoslavs are undoubtedly sensitive to the need to absorb the growing
number of returnees, particularly in view of their exposure to life in Western
Europe. The influx of workers is accentuating the country's economic problems,
which in part contribute to potential political and social unrest.
President Tito's "hostile forces" campaign is designed to curb dissident activity,
but the continued inflow of laborers over the long run could make this task more
January 31, 1976
difficult.
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Top Secret
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