NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028500010048-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: January 29, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
January 29, 1976
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
CONTENTS
ITALY: Early parliamentary
elections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
MOROCCO-ALGERIA: New fighting in
Spanish Sahara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
LEBANON: Christians suspicious
of Syrian intentions . . . .. . . . . .
SYRIA: Reaction to
US veto . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
SPAIN: Arias' speech
disappointing to many
CUBA-CHINA-USSR: Havana's party
daily attacks Peking . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Secess onist-inspired
violence . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
PHILLIPINES: Communists
suffer setback . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
ETHIOPIA: Ruling military council's
prestige tarnished . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
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National Intelligence Builletin January 29, 1976
An early parliamentary election in Italy now seems a strong possibility. Aldo
Moro is having increasing trouble in his effort; to form a minority government
composed solely of Christian Democrats. He began negotiations for such a
government, which could only have been a stop-gap solution, on Monday after he
had failed to get agreement on any formula for a coalition with two or more of the
country's four center-left parties.
Moro's Christian Democrats handed him his latest problem yesterday when
they said they were unwilling to take part in a caretaker cabinet unless Moro could
first persuade the other three center-left parties-the Socialist, Social Democratic,
and Republican-to pledge parliamentary support for a package of emergency
economic measures.
Moro now has the complicated task of trying to reconcile the opposing views of
the Socialists and the austerity-minded Republicans. The long-standing economic
policy dispute between the two parties was a major factor in the Socialists' decision
to bring down Moro's previous government three weeks ago. Neither party is now in
a mood to compromise.
The obstacle course set up for Moro by his own party suggests that the
Christian Democrats now see more advantages than disadvantages in an early
election. The Christian Democrats, however, are striving to create the impression
that they are exhausting all alternatives in order to be able to blame the other parties
if an early election becomes inevitable.
Few Christian Democrats can match Moro's negotiating skill, and he may yet
produce an agreement. If he cannot find a compromise-one well-placed Christian
Democrat has already predicted failure-Moro's party will have to decide between
asking another Christian Democrat to try to form a government or sending his
outgoing coalition to parliament for a confidence vote. Barring a last-minute retreat
by the Socialists in such a vote. Moro would lose and the stane would he sat fnr an
early election.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 29, 1976
New clashes with Moroccan forces in Spanish Sahara were reported yesterday
by Algeria's official press agency. According to another press report, the fighting
continued into today. The reports did not indicate exactly where the fighting
occurred or whether Algerian troops or Polisario Front guerrillas were involved.
A Moroccan communique, however, claimed the fighting was a continuation of
Tuesday's clash, in which Polisario guerrillas were supported by Algerian military
personnel. The Moroccans claimed they captured some more Algerian troops
subordinate to the army's 41st battalion and that the Algerians used artillery in
yesterday's round of fighting. Rabat and Algiers have so far measured their moves
carefully, but each has expressed concern that the situation could get out of control.
Iraq, Egypt, and Syria are trying to mediate between Rabat and Algiers. Iraqi
Information Minister Aziz talked with President Boumediene in Algiers yesterday
and is now in Rabat for talks with King Hassan. Syrian Deputy Prime Minister
Haydar and Chief of Staff Shihabi yesterday began a similar mission to both
countries. Egyptian President Sadat also has been in contact with Boumediene and
Hassan, and yesterday sent Vice President Mubarak to Morocco, Algeria, and
Mauritania.
President Boumediene yesterday called on all nations to support
self-determination for Spanish Sahara. Algeria, he said, could not neglect its duty to
support the Saharans to this end. He warned that Morocco and Mauritania, which
he said had colluded with Spain to invade the area, must bear full responsibility for
the situation which has resulted from their action,
Morocco yesterday called in the ambassadors of the five permanent members of
the UN Security Council to stress the gravity of the situation. Foreign Minister
Laraki emphasized Rabat's determination to remain calm and to avoid overreacting
to Algerian provocations. Although Laraki said Morocco at present was not planning
to call for a Security Council meeting, he was clearly laying the groundwork for such
a move if the situation deteriorates.
Laraki claimed Moroccan forces on Tuesday had encountered an Algerian
"garrison," not a supply convoy carrying medicine and food arc the AIn rian nrPsc
reported. He said the Moroccans captured 29 Algerian soldiers.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
President Tito's illness is reportedly much more serious than Belgrade has
officially admitted.
A Yugoslav journalist who was to accompany the 83-year-old leader on a
recently postponed tour of Latin America has told the US ambassador that Tito is
suffering partial paralysis and will need six to seven weeks to recover. Belgrade has
said only that Tito is suffering from sciatica. Mexico yesterday announced that
Tito's state visit there has been postponed indefinitely.
The journalist denied that Tito had a stroke, but the symptoms he described
point to this diagnosis. Tito has in recent years suffered minor episodes of coronary
insufficiency and several minor strokes accompanied by partial and temporary
paralysis. In 1973, he experienced a heart failure that physically incapacitated him
for almost six months.
This latest incident may not be dangerous in itself, but at Tito's age, a series of
minor strokes is a definite threat. Such a development could permanently impair his
physical and mental capacities.
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BEIRUT
r2
ISRAEL ~- -~
LIE BA NO 11
a'
ew
Zahlah :4
Shtawrah 1141, Ilyas
Golan
Heights
Damascus
S Y R I A
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
Christian leaders in Lebanon remain suspicious of Syria's intentions, despite
repeated assurances from Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam that Syrian-controlled
Palestinian troops will be withdrawn to Syria as soon as order is restored.
Heavy concentrations of these Palestinian forces are in the Bekaa Valley, and
recent attacks on a group of small Christian villages in the area were apparently the
immediate cause for Christian concern. The official Lebanese news service said
yesterday that the Christian town of Qabb' Ilyas has been under attack for several
days, but it carefully avoided assigning blame for the trouble.
. In an interview yesterday, Interior Minister Shamun referred to the trouble in
eastern Lebanon. He implied that he would withhold approval of a final settlement
until Syria recalls the Palestinian troops. Although Shamun may be overstating this
reaction to the Palestinian presence in order to buy time in political negotiations,
talk of Syrian "occupation," coupled with persistent cease-fire violations, may erode
confidence that a settlement can be reached.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Rafai yesterday called in Ambassador Murphy
to express Syria's "deep dissatisfaction" with the US veto of the Arab-backed
resolution in the UN Security Council last Monday. He said the US had created an
impasse in the Middle East peace process and had blocked the way toward a durable
aaeace.
Noting that Syria believes there is a better understanding for Palestinian rights
in the US than in the US government, Rafai asserted that the US veto will not deter
Damascus from pursuing its efforts on behalf of the Palestinians in both the General
Assembly and again in the Security Council.
An earlier public statement by the Syrian minister of information carried a
!similar message but was more strident in tone. The statement asserted that the US
bears a great responsibility for wasting an opportunity to further peace efforts and
:accused the US of "persistently antagonizing" the Arab people.
Apparently referring to US statements explaining the reasons for the vote, the
: yrian statement charged that the US is using "flimsy excuses" to cover up an
Obvious maneuver to support "Zionist aggression." An authoritative Damascus
(newspaper, echoing the same theme, urged in addition that the Arabs revise their
;attitudes toward the US.
Although there is undoubtedly an element of rhetoric in both the private
demarche and the public statement, the Syrians probably actually believe much of
what their statements alleged about the US attempt to stall for time on Israel's
behalf.
Neither statement repeated the newspaper's call for a reappraisal of relations
with the US, but Damascus may nonetheless feel that it would lose nothing at this
point if it attempted to exert further pressure on the US by putting greater distance
between itself and Washington.
The Syrians may also hope that the changing opinion they perceive in the US
will work as additional pressure on the US to alter its position on the Palestinians.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 29, 1976
Prime Minister Arias' policy speech to the Spanish parliament yesterday was
more a declaration of intentions than the concrete program for change many
Spaniards had hoped for.
Arias promised the government would set up a bicameral legislature, draft a
new election law, and give political parties more independence. He failed to define
how responsive the new legislature would be to the electorate or how much freedom
political parties would have.
The Prime Minister did make it clear that change would be gradual. This theme
will be heavily criticized by those Spaniards who have advocated a constitutional
eferendum on whether to dismantle institutions inherited from the Franco era.
Other proposals made by Arias were equally vague or hedged with restrictions:
--His promise to amend the severe anti-terrorist law was coupled with a warning
against those who resort to violence.
--His announcement that the government is studying a statute to accommodate
the two Basque provinces and Barcelona Province was coupled with a defense
of a strong unitary state.
--His promise to relax restrictions on freedom of assembly and demonstrations
was accompanied by some strong remarks about law and order.
Arias disappointed those who had hoped that another amnesty would be
granted to Spanish political prisoners, stating only that the matter is under study. He
was equally imprecise about the government's approach to economic problems. He
said full employment is a priority goal and emphasized the need for sharing
economic burdens equitably and for tax reform.
In effect, Arias' speech asks those who have benefited under the old system to
consider giving up some of their power and privileges. Most have serious misgivings
about where all of this will lead.
Last weekend, for example, it took considerable behind-the-scenes pressure to
get the Council of the Realm to approve a government decree extending the present
parliament for 15 months in order to allow enactment of new laws to make the next
general elections more representative. In his speech, Arias promised to complete his
reforms during that period.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 29, 1976
Perhaps anticipating the disappointment the speech would arouse both at home
and abroad, Interior Minister Fraga, the leading proponent of reform in the cabinet,
told a European government official that his government should not be concerned
about the speech because proposals for reform would be set forth shortly.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 29, 1976
An anti-Chinese editorial in the Cuban party daily on Tuesday suggests that
Havana is determined to play a more aggressive role, in parallel with Moscow, in
trying to undermine Chinese influence in the Communist and Third World. The
commentary said, "The Angolan trenches define the real ideological and political
positions" of nations, and denounced China for allying with "the US imperialists
and the South African racists." Chinese policies elsewhere, particularly on Chile, also
were attacked.
Although the attack is in line with recent Soviet propaganda, it is the most
strident anti-Chinese message from Havana since 1966. By reviving the polemics that
have been largely absent from Cuban-Chinese relations since that time, Havana may
be serving notice of its intention to compete more actively with Peking for influence
with Third World governments and revolutionary groups.
Cuba had already been pursuing this course-albeit less aggressively-during the
last few years with considerable success. We estimate that as many as 2,500 Cuban
civilian and military advisers are in a number of countries in the Caribbean, the
Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, in addition to the large contingent now in
Angola. In some of these countries, Cuba-acting in part as Moscow's surrogate-has
gained influence at the expense of China.
The Chinese have long regarded the Cubans as the Soviets' proxy abroad, and
Tuesday's diatribe, to which Peking has not yet responded, will only strengthen this
view. At the very least, Peking can be expected to include Cuba more directly in its
anti-Soviet commentary on Angola. To date, Chinese media have avoided any direct
criticism of Cuban support for the Popular Movement. In recent weeks, however, the
official Chinese news agency has replayed several Western accounts of Havana's role
in Angola.
The Chinese have traditionally attempted to limit the impact of Sino-Soviet
competition on Peking's state-to-state relations, but official dealings with
Havana-which have been unfriendly but not overtly vituperative-will undoubtedly
become more tense.
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e vv
PORT OO
MORESBY
Manus
.Vanimo ?Kavieng
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 29, 1976
The government of Papua New Guinea is facing a secessionist-inspired outbreak
of violence on Bougainville Island-the new nation's richest province. Attacks on
government facilities and other mob action in recent days have apparently been in
reaction to Prime Minister Somare's move in early January to evict secessionist
officials from government housing and to withhold revenue payments to the
secessionists' self-styled "Republic of the North Solomons."
There is considerable confusion in the government on how to deal with the
situation. Somare has been indecisive in responding to the secessionist challenge,
which surfaced soon after Papua New Guinea became independent last September,
and he has intended until now to let matters drift.
New Guinea is 500 miles from Bougainville, and the secessionists have
disrupted communications with the island. The! government has only limited forces
available if Somare decides to suppress the secessionist movement, which has been
growing rapidly in recent months.
It is too early to judge the prospects for a negotiated settlement of the central
issues. The Bougainvilleans' resent control of the central government by the more
numerous Papuans and New Guineans and demand a larger share of revenues from
the lucrative copper mines on the iisland. At present, over half of the central
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
The Maoist-oriented Communist Party of the Philippines/Marxist Leninist
recently suffered setbacks when the government arrested several top party officials
and successfully dispersed a Communist-organized demonstration in Manila.
In a series of raids, Philippine security forces apprehended 48 party members,
including four members of the Central Committee. These raids and arrests, plus the
arrest of several students, apparently helped to disrupt the protest demonstration
planned for this past Sunday.
The demonstration, organized to protest low wages and a series of other labor
:Ind welfare issues, was effectively dispersed before it started by security forces and
Eovernment-or anized civilian youth
Sunday's demonstration never really got off the ground, but at least 5,000
supporters reportedly showed up, and several prominent religious and political
opposition leaders backed the Communist-inspired event. This turnout demonstrates
that the Communist Party has the ability to capitalize on some of the issues that
confront an urban society under martial law. Although the opposition presently
poses little threat to the Marcos government, and the Communist Party remains
;mall, rising dissatisfaction might well bring about additional cooperation between
the Communists and liberal Catholic, student, and labor arouos.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 29, 1976
The arrest of six members of Ethiopia's ruling military council for alleged
corruption has dealt a further blow to the council's attempt to improve its badly
tarnished image.
Addis Ababa radio announced yesterday that the six were imprisoned for
personal misdeeds. Other reports circulating in the capital claim that seven council
members were involved. The US embassy and defense attache have received reports
that the accused were executed earlier this week after evidence of their alleged illegal
activities was presented to the council.
The council has never fully recovered the influence it lost late last year because
of its factionalism and increasing reliance on force to carry out its policies.E
I I L~y
is atest indication of
ei er more public cynicism,
despite the council's attempt to portray the arrests as stern action against
corruption.
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January 29, 1976
PANAMA: Protests against the government's arrest and exiling on January 20
Of a number of prominent members of the opposition have subsided. A general
trike by rightist businessmen, the chief target of the crackdown, fizzled in the
capital. The government used hired hoodlums to break up a protest rally and exerted
Behind-the-scenes pressure on businessmen. The principal business organization has
called for "normalization," apparently after the goverment made some concessions.
laving thus cowed his opponents, Torrijos will probably allow some of those
'x elled to return eventually, in exchange for pledges of good conduct
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