NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028500010018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: January 12, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Fighting spreads in Beirut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
ECUADOR: Military triumvirate
replaces President Rodriguez . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
ITALY: Major parties prepare for
today's talks with President Leone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
ICELAND-UK: Iceland
threatening to break relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
SPAIN: New appeals for general strike . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
EC-GREECE: Implications of early membership . . . . . . . . . . 12
EC-UNESCO: Definition of Zionism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
Fighting spread during the weekend to virtually all sectors of Beirut, including
the central hotel district, as leftist and Palestinian forces attempted to relieve the
Christian blockade of two Palestinian refugee camps.
Palestinian forces suffered at least a temporary setback early Saturday morning
when they had to withdraw from the Christian district of Horsh Thabet in an effort
to break the Christians' encirclement of the camps. Although the Palestinians have
apparently not reoccupied the positions, fighting in Horsh Thabet and neighboring
areas continued throughout the weekend.
Saturday evening during a meeting with other Muslim leaders, Prime Minister
Karami denounced the Christians' blockade. The Lebanese army later announced
that it would escort a convoy of food and water supplies to the camps. The fighting
prevented the convoy from moving on Saturday evening as scheduled, and it could
not get past the blockade yesterday.
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 Approved For Relea
Nationa
ntelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
A military triumvirate of armed forces chiefs has replaced President Rodriguez
Lara, who resigned on January 11. This comes one month before the fourth
anniversary of the coup that brought Rodriguez to power, when he was expected to
step down.
The change in command is not likely to alter Quito's domestic and foreign
policies, at least in the near term. In its initial communique, the triumvirate, which
calls itself the Supreme Council of Government, declared that the country would be
returned to civilian rule by the end of 1977. Such a plan, however, will do little to
mollify the many civilian critics of military rule.
The Rodriguez government, during four months of political rumors and
internal disorder sparked by the abortive September coup attempt, was able to
maintain power because there was no unified opposition. Last week, the military
heads-army General Duran, navy Vice Admiral Poveda, and air force General
Leoro-in a united move insisted that Rodriguez be removed and internal stability
restored.
The new leadership inherits a weakened economy and a fractionalized armed
forces. The junta's success will depend in large part on its ability to present a
cohesive front, already endangered by the rivalry between Duran and Poveda.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
The major Italian parties held strategy sessions over the weekend to prepare for
the talks today with President Leone on how to replace the Moro government,
which resigned last week.
Leone is likely to find that the major dispute among the parties remains the
question of whether the Communist opposition should be consulted more by the
next government. When the Socialist Party brought Moro down last week by
withdrawing its parliamentary support, the party made its participation in
government conditional on such a change of policy toward the Communists. Despite
new signs of flexibility, the Socialists are not likely to drop the demand altogether.
The Christian Democrats have taken a position, however, apparently designed
to encourage the Socialists to do just that. The Christian Democrats implied that
they are prepared to give the Socialists a substantially larger role-such as more
important ministries and more influence in economic and other policies-to lure
them back into a coalition. At the same time, the Christian Democrats ruled out any
arrangement to establish a formal consultative relationship between the government
and the Communists.
The Socialists are feeling increasingly isolated. All of their traditional
supporters-most important organized labor-have criticized their decision to topple
the government and to force the Communist issue during the present economic
slump. Such criticism probably accounts in part for Socialist leader De Martino's
showing greater flexibility now than last week, when he argued that Communist
"support" should be sought by any new government. De Martino now talks in terms
of a Communist "contribution."
De Martino's shifting stance also reflects the differences in his party over how
much leeway should be given to the Communists. When pressed to clarify the party's
position, Socialist spokesmen give diverse interpretations, ranging from advocacy of
maaore open dialogue with the Communists to general policy agreements between
ahem and the government.
For their part, the Communists continued to emphasize their opposition to an
early parliamentary election and to criticize the Socialists for precipitating a
confrontation in the midst of efforts in parliament to deal with the country's severe
economic problems. Nevertheless, the Communists' insistence that the next
Government will not be effective unless it gives more weight to their views may
indicate a willingness to enter into some arrangement similar to that proposed by the
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 12, 1976
Socialists. Although the Communists have agreed to an informal role in some of the
regional governments that they do not control, the party has so far discouraged
attempts to try the idea at the national level.
President Leone and the man he nominates as prime minister will thus be
searching for some formula to reconcile the competing views of the Christian
Democrats and the Socialists on the Communist question. One of the few concrete
suggestions advanced so far has come from President Leone's domestic affairs
adviser, who has suggested that Christian Democrats and Socialists collaborate in a
government and negotiate a program acceptable to the Communists.
The difficulty of getting everyone to agree on such a formula, however, has
kept alive talk of early parliamentary elections. Indeed, much of the flexibility
shown by most parties in the last few days may reflect their wish to avoid being
blamed by voters if early elections become the only way out.
Leone is reportedly still leaning toward Moro as his choice for prime minister,
although Budget Minister Andreotti is being mentioned more frequently because of
his close relations with one of the Socialist leaders whose support De Martino would
need to lead his party back into the government.
Iceland is threatening to break relations with the UK on Tuesday or Wednesday
unless it gets some support in the special NATO meeting today.
Prime Minister Hallgrimsson told Ambassador Irving yesterday that the cabinet,
after the latest ramming incident, instructed him either to break relations with the
UK or suspend participation in NATO. Later information suggests Reykjavik may be
prepared to take both these steps. Hallgrimsson said Iceland will act unless several
NATO states express support for Iceland or the US makes a special plea.
Public pressure on the government to act decisively is increasing. The
barricading of the US-manned base at Keflavik yesterday by Icelandic fishermen was
the first such demonstration in the current dispute. A maritime court, boycotted by
the UK, is expected to rule today that the British were at fault in the latest incident,
a finding that will heighten public emotions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
The ending of the Madrid subway strike yesterday has done little to ease
Spain's labor tension. The Communist Party and several illegal labor groups
reportedly are already issuing appeals for a general strike this week.
Although a successful general strike continues to be unlikely, organizers will
claim success because of the large number of workers on strike over contract
grievances. The wave of strikes will test the government's desire to balance its
response to labor with its need to control inflation and its determination to maintain
order with a minimum of force.
The terms of the temporary settlement of the illegal subway strike seem to
vindicate the government's handling of the dispute. The workers got a serious
consideration of their grievances-which were largely monetary-and a promise of no
reprisals. The wage settlement, reportedly proposed by the company and accepted
by the workers, does not upset the government's austerity program, which calls for
holding wage increases to no more than 3 percent over the cost of living increase.
The subway strike did serve as a catalyst; some 75,000 workers demanding
higher wages were on strike throughout the country over the weekend, and five large
factories in Madrid alone were closed.
Communist labor leader Marcelino Camacho, who was released in the
November partial amnesty decreed by King Juan Carlos, has charged that the
government is reverting to the old methods of the Franco regime. Camacho claimed
that although workers who have been arrested were fighting for legitimate wage
demands and had no interest in political subversion, it was inevitable that economic
grievances would be linked with political demands.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 12, 1976
EC and member-state officials are uneasy about the long-term economic,
political, and institutional implications of Greece's bid for early membership in the
Community and the precedents it may set for further expansion.
High-level political support for Athens' application has been strong within the
FC, because of the stabilizing effect membership would have within Greece and also
for European solidarity in the Mediterranean. Similar considerations argue for closer
EC ties with Spain. Nevertheless, the Nine are aware that they may face increased
commercial competition and greater demands for financial support. Moreover, a
further enlarged Community could put new strains on the EC's decision-making
process.
The EC Commission is now studying two alternative responses to Greece's
request. The first calls for work to begin immediately on full accession. Even if this
approach is adopted, serious negotiations would not begin until next fall.
Alternatively, the Commission is considering limiting negotiations to improving
Greece's current association agreement with the EC, while leaving the door open for
full membership at a later date. This second option would mollify the Greeks, who
complain that they now must bear the costs of EC policies without a say in
determining them. Greece would be permitted to participate in meetings of lower
level committees dealing with matters of major importance to Greece but would be
excluded from EC Council sessions.
The Greeks are, nevertheless, unlikely to respond positively to any proposal
that does not call for full membership within the shortest possible time, particularly
since West German Chancellor Schmidt enthusiastically and unreservedly endorsed
early Greek entry during his visit to Athens two weeks ago.
Some EC officials, however, are mindful that a delaying formula for Greece
would set a useful precedent that would give the Nine more time to await political
developments in Spain and elsewhere before dealing with such bids for EC
membership. Renegotiation of the EC-Spanish preferential trade accord will
probably begin this spring, and EC officials expect the agreement could be
concluded fairly quickly. This would then be followed by an "observation" period
of at least one year before any new initiatives establishing closer ties to the EC
would be contemplated.
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National Intelligence Bullet-in January 12, 1976
Most West European states will attend the January 26 UNESCO meeting
charged with drawing up a definition of racism, even though the controversy over
equating Zionism with racism is expected to surface. The UN experts of the EC
Nine, who met this week in Luxembourg, have recommended that the EC member
states attend the meeting. The US has stated that it will boycott it. Canada will
probably follow the Nine's lead.
The Nine may make their attendance conditional on acceptance of the
traditional UNESCO principle that decisions at such meetings require close to a
majority. Last month, the US and most West Europeans walked out of a meeting
when the Arabs and their supporters succeeded in inserting in another UNESCO
declaration a reference to the IJN resolution labeling Zionism as a form of racism.
The EC justified its withdrawal by stating that the concensus principle had been
shattered.
The US and West Europeans have urged UNESCO's director-a black
African-to cancel or to postpone the meeting. Although he is sympathetic, he
cannot legally cancel the meeting on his own initiative. He apparently has not yet
made a final decision on postponement, but fears that this course could leave him
open to Arab charges of capitulating to Western pressure.
If the meeting is held, the EC Nine political directors will have to meet next
week to work out a common position on the racism-Zionism issue.
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