NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028300010024-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: November 14, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 14, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Apparent concessions to 1
workers end confrontation at palace . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
SPANISH SAHARA: Talks in Madrid make 3
little progress toward an agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . .
LEBANON: Principal combatants are 4
trying to avoid renewed heavy fighting . . . . . . . . . . . . .
USSR-CSCE: Soviet-US dialogue 5
on CSCE implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
YUGOSLAVIA-USSR: Yugoslavs question 6
Soviet assurances of non-interference . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ECUADOR: Nationwide strike was 7
effective and without major violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 14, 1975
A major confrontation between the Azevedo government and Communist-led
workers apparently ended early this morning with the signing of a new collective
labor contract.
Although the terms of the new contract have not yet been made public, the
workers were sufficiently placated to end their siege of Sao Bento palace, where
Prime Minister Azevedo remained a virtual prisoner for two days. There was a danger
yesterday that the confrontation would develop into a major challenge to the
government when the demonstrating construction workers demanded not only a
44-percent wage increase, but also the return of pro-Communist former prime
minister Vasco Goncalves.
Constituent assembly delegates, who spent Wednesday night trapped in the
palace, left yesterday afternoon with the assistance of local troops. The troops
refused to guarantee the safety of three assembly members-two leading Socialists
and conservative former air force chief Galvao de Melo. The three remained with
Azevedo after an attempt to evacuate them by military helicopter was frustrated by
the crowd.
The government will have serious problems if it agreed to the construction
workers' demands for a 44-percent increase in wages, especially since details of a
new austerity program were published in the Lisbon press this week. The program
calls for increased prices, reduced real wages, rationing of essential foodstuffs, and
adjustments in the exchange rate to put Portugal on the road to economic recovery.
Before implementing these provisions, the government will have to weigh very
carefully its ability to withstand the tension such a program is bound to create
against the chaos that might result if something is not done to improve the
economy.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 14, 1975
SPANISH SAHARA
Spanish, Moroccan, and Mauritanian officials in two days of talks in Madrid
have made little progress toward an agreement on the future of Spanish Sahara.
Algerian opposition to a partition of the territory between Morocco and
Mauritania is a major factor in retarding an accord. Press reports from Madrid, citing
diplomatic sources, say Algerian President Boumediene sent a message to Spanish
Prime Minister Arias Wednesday. Boumediene was presumably warning Arias against
an agreement that would turn the territory over to Rabat and Nouakchott.
Algiers wants the people of Spanish Sahara to make their own choice in a
referendum supervised by the UN. Although eager to get out of the territory, Madrid
still wants the UN to play a role, possibly by establishing a temporary trusteeship
and overseeing a referendum. The Moroccans have been unwilling to accept Spanish
assurances that a trusteeship arrangement and a referendum could be rigged to result
in a transfer of sovereignty to Morocco and Mauritania.
Madrid does have the option of ordering a rapid Spanish withdrawal. Spanish
military forces in the territory have already pulled back to a 70-mile defense
perimeter around the territorial capital of El Aaiun and to the southern port of Villa
Cisneros. Although this concentration of forces will help avoid incidents with
Moroccan irregulars, it does put Spain in position to pull out quickly. Augmented
Spanish navy units in the area could provide a covering force for evacuation.
The evacuation of Spanish civilians to the Canary Islands, scheduled to end
November 20, is all but complete. Only 200 of an estimated 18,000 Spanish civilians
remain to be evacuated from El Aaiun. A few civilians will remain behind, and
workers at the Bu Craa phosphate mines evidently intend to continue working
rted that
h
as repo
regardless of political developments. The Spanish news agency
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intain essential services.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
LEBANON
November 14, 11975
Security in Beirut has deteriorated this week, although the principal
combatants are still trying to avoid the return of heavy fighting. Commercial activity
halted almost completely yesterday, after gradually increasing since the cease-fire
went into effect on November 2.
Lebanese and Palestinian politicians have not been able to end the crisis by
negotiations. The committee considering political reform has been meeting regularly,
however, and reportedly is near agreement on abolishing the practice of hiring
government employees on the basis of their religious affiliation. Lebanese leftists
have long sought to end the system of confessional balance on which the country's
governing system is based, as have the conservative Muslims who seek a larger
proportion of public service jobs. Christians on the committee presumably feel that
they can afford to make this concession-which many regard as inevitable-because
their followers are generally better educated and better able to compete under a
future merit system.
Prime Minister Karami's security committee has also been meeting, primarily to
seek ways to stop politically motivated kidnapings. Several hundred persons have
been seized and released this week as part of the bargaining between the several
factions.
The cabinet remains deadlocked by the split between its Christian and Muslim
members. At the meeting on Wednesday, President Franjiyah made only a general
plea for calm; Karami declined to spell out the details of the political compromise he
proposed last weekend.
Outsiders are intensifying their efforts to mediate. An envoy from the Vatican
will complete a fact-finding tour this weekend, but is not expected to make specific
proposals for a political settlement. French emissary Couve de Murville probably will
go to Beirut within the next few days, also to gather information. He stands a better
chance of providing effective mediation.
The government's decision to accept Paris' offer to mediate resulted from the
strong urgings of Lebanese Foreign Minister Taqla, a Greek Catholic, and from a
general conviction that the effort could do no harm. Karami, a Muslim, has in the
past resisted bringing in the French out of a conviction that they would sympathijze
with Lebanon's Christian minority. Karami's reservations may have lessened
somewhat when the French embassy in Beirut demonstrated it could consult
effectively on security problems with nians and Lebanese leftists during
the recent fighting.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 14, 1975
USSR-CSCE
Deputy Foreign Minister Korniyenko responded in a substantive way on
Wednesday to a US demarche on CSCE implementation, indicating that Moscow
feels compelled to engage in a serious dialogue with the US on some implementation
issues.
Moscow has consistently held that the provisions of the Helsinki agreement are
not automatically self-implementing, but must be negotiated bilaterally. Moreover,
with a follow-up meeting of CSCE signatories scheduled to take place in Belgrade in
1977, the Soviets have an interest in appearing to be responsive to Western
initiatives.
Moscow would also like to appear to be living up to the letter, and even the
spirit, of the agreement. Thus, the Soviets have asserted that they, in contrast to the
US, have widely disseminated the text of the agreement. Moreover, they have, as
provided for in the text, approved multiple exit/entry visas for US journalists, a
procedure that was also extended to the French during Giscard's visit.
Appearances notwithstanding, the Soviets are also laying out the limits to
which they will go. They have been particularly unreceptive on the military-related
aspects of CSCE, the so-called confidence-building measures. For example, they are
refusing to acknowledge advance notification by the West of military exercises or to
send observers to them, as provided by the conference document. They have also
stressed the aspects of the document they regard as advantageous, especially the
statement on "inviolability of frontiers."
In addition to putting forth their own interpretations of what the Helsinki
agreement does and does not require, the Soviets, as well as the East Europeans,
have been quick to try to put the West on the defensive. Thus, Korniyenko
complained about problems the Soviets have had in obtaining US visas and the
inadequate dissemination of the CSCE text in the US. He also threw in an attack on
Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, and Voice of America broadcasts as
incompatible with the Helsinki agreement.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 14, 1975
Yugoslav party secretary for ideology Todo Kurtovic has publicly questioned
Moscow's assurances of non-interference in Yugoslav internal affairs.
Kurtovic, speaking to regime propagandists on Tuesday, expressed concern that
the historical agreements that constitute the basis for a friendly, equal work, ing
relationship with Moscow are being reinterpreted by the Soviets. He also charged
that "foreign circles" are trying to fragment the Yugoslav party in order to des roy
its independent stance. Although these allegations avoid specific mention of the
current Soviet leadership, they are the most pointed expression of Yugoslav unease
over Soviet intentions in the recent anti-Stalinist campaign.
The Tito regime still wants to avoid an open break with Moscow over the
activities of pro-Soviet subversives in Yugoslavia, but Belgrade's foreign pollicy
priorities are in conflict with its domestic vigilance drive. The policy of restraint is
weakening, and several Yugoslav newspapers-including the army weekly, lbarodna
Arriya-have recently recalled the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia as
inspiration for increased watchfulness against pro-Soviet machinations.
Moscow has not yet responded in kind. It has been depicting Soviet-Yugoslav
relations as normal, partly in an attempt to avoid difficulties before the Soviet party
congress and in preparation for the European Communist party conference.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 14, 1975
There was no major violence during yesterday's nationwide strike, but some
scattered confrontations between police and students occurred. The anticipated mass
civil disobedience by political groups and various leftist student organizations did
not materialize.
Several foreign press reports that a coup had occurred proved to be false;
relative calm prevailed throughout Ecuador. No large troop concentrations were
reported in the cities and if there was increased police patrolling, it was not
noticeable.
By letting the strike proceed without government interference, President
Rodriguez managed to avoid a showdown on his lead pihip. but his support among
the military services does not appear to have improved.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
FOR THE RECORD
November 14, 1975
WEST GERMANY - NETHERLANDS: The possibility of trading defense
responsibilities bilaterally within NATO will be discussed by Dutch State Secretary
for Defense Stemerdenk and West German defense officials on November 18. Dutch
Defense Minister Vredling informally broached the subject with his West German
counterpart at the Eurogroup conference earlier this month by suggesting that the
Netherlands assume West Germany's naval role in the North Sea and that Bonn
assume some Dutch defense roles in the central region. The NATO allies are wary of
such Dutch proposals, however, fearing that The Hague's aim is to reduce its defense
commitments to NATO. In the past West Germany and the Netherlands have been
unable to agree on similar proposals and negotiations on the issue promise to be long
and arduous.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 14, 1975
ARGENTINA: Counterterrorist activities reached an all time high lastweek. On
November 7 the air force participated for the first time in operations against
terrorists in Tucuman Province, and army units in Mendoza, Rosario, and Salta
rounded up some 1,600 reported terrorists on November 8. Army, coast guard,
naval, and police forces conducted an exercise south of Buenos Aires, probably in
preparation for a roundup in that area. Acting President Luder's authorization last
month for such operations may placate those in the military who have criticized the
government for not giving the armed forces a role in earlier antiguerrilla efforts.
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