NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027800010046-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: June 27, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
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N2 662
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
CONTENTS
INDIA: Mrs. Gandhi still has backing
as Ruling Congress Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
USSR-SYRIA: Talks on
ties produce little . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
EC: Ministers move ahead
on several subjects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
PORTUGAL-AZORES: Lisbon's concessions
should dampen separatist sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
CANADA - SOUTH KOREA: Nuclear
reactor sale delayed again . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
THAI LAND: Students plan anti-US
demonstration on July 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Prime Minister Gandhi's crackdown on the political opposition yesterday opens
a new phase in her fight to stay in office. Thus far, the proclamation of a state of
emergency has resulted in no significant disturbances in politically volatile urban
areas.
Mrs. Gandhi's immediate aim in arresting key opposition figures and censoring
both the domestic press and foreign correspondents is to head off a nationwide civil
disobedience movement. Numerous opposition parties had scheduled such a
movement to begin next week. Until yesterday, Mrs. Gandhi had for over a year
carefully avoided taking drastic measures against the opposition, such as her
foremost critic, J. P. Narayan, who was among the hundreds jailed.
To carry off her latest move, Mrs. Gandhi needs the backing of her Ruling
Congress Party. So far, we have no evidence that support has dwindled by a
significant degree. Mrs. Gandhi's most likely successors, Agriculture Minister Ram or
Finance Minister Chavan, are still giving her strong public support. Yesterday, six
long-standing Congress Party mavericks in parliament were suspended from the party
and several were arrested. The party leadership is in no mood to tolerate open
dissent within the ranks.
Leaders of the armed forces reportedly were not forewarned about the
emergency proclamation. The military is reluctant to intervene in civil disorders, and
Mrs. Gandhi probably does not anticipate calling on the army to assist in
maintaining public order unless the situation deteriorates drastically. Police and
paramilitary forces have expanded considerably in the last few years, and they
probably can control any protest demonstrations that result from the crackdown.
It appears unlikely that Mrs. Gandhi will reconvene parliament in July for its
usual summer session. She must, however, under the terms of Indian law, gain
approval of the emergency proclamation by both houses of parliament within two
months-i.e., by late August-or the proclamation will expire. Conceivably, Mrs.
Gandhi might stretch this timetable by dissolving parliament and calling for a new
election, which need not be held for six months. This would give her time to repair
her reputation within the party and throughout the nation. In a speech to the nation
yesterday, the Prime Minister said she would soon be taking further measures to
strengthen the economy and remove the hardships now being visited upon many
Indians.
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National Intelligence Bulletin June 27, 1975
The Supreme Court is expected to begin its review of Mrs. Gandhi's appeal of a
lower court conviction for campaign violations shortly after July 14. A judgment
might be issued long before an election could be held. The executive branch of the
government, despite the extensive powers granted it under the new emergency
lamatlon, cannot block the Supreme
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Soviet party secretary Ponomarev's visit to Syria, which ended Wednesday, may
have been aimed at smoothing over differences between Damascus and Moscow.
The timing of Ponomarev's trip may have been related to Syrian Foreign
Minister Khaddam's visit to Washington last week. Ponomarev plays an active role in
Soviet Middle East matters, and his visit could have been designed to buck up Syrian
resistance to Washington, as well as to obtain a reading on Khaddam's conversations
with Secretary Kissinger. Although Ponomarev was obstensibly in Syria only to sign
an agreement on cooperation with the Baath Party, the presence of the Soviet
representative to the Geneva Middle East peace conference indicates that broader
political issues were also discussed.
Ponomarev seemed defensive about the impact on US-Soviet detente on
Moscow's relations with the Arabs. In an address, over Syrian television, he argued
that detente was not inconsistent with Moscow's support for Syria and the Arabs,
but instead should be viewed as an integral part of the "struggle against
imperialism."
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Ponomarev apparently did not have great success in soothing the S rians.
D
his
visit received little attention from the Syrian press. Soviet commentator
characterized the atmosphere of the trip as one of "frankness and cordial
understanding"-a euphemism for tough talk. Whatever their current differences, it
seems unlikely that Moscow and Syria will let their relations become severely
strained because each needs the other too much.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Significant decisions were made by the EC on Mediterranean policy, aid to
Portugal, and an agreement with Canada at Council meetings early this week.
The Community finally was able to move ahead with its Mediterranean policy
after Italy made concessions on the admission of certain agricultural products to the
EC. Rome had been unwilling to move earlier for fear that concessions would
weaken the government in the regional elections of June 15. It was decided that all
the provisions of the free-trade agreement with Israel will enter into force on July 1,
preferential trade and cooperation accords with the Maghreb can be concluded, and
negotiating directives for agreements with Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon can be
prepared.
The Council reviewed developments in Portugal and agreed to a "Community
action" program to get substantial financial assistance to Lisbon quickly to boost
democratic forces there. The EC ambassadors and the Commission are to prepare
specific proposals by July 15 on the amount and terms of assistance.
Concerning Canada, the Council was "generally in favor" of Commission
proposals for a nonpreferential agreement to include provisions for industrial and
environmental cooperation. The EC-Canadian agreement is to serve as a model for
arrangements with other developed countries and, the Commission hopes, as a
precedent for EC cooperation arrangements with China, Iran, and the East European
states. France agreed, but insisted such EC-wide agreements should not supplant
bilateral pacts.
The tentative agenda agreed on for the EC heads-of-government meeting next
month in Brussels reflects continuing European preoccupation with economic
problems. The topics include raw materials, energy, and the economic situation of
the Community. A discussion of monetary and financial questions also has been
listed at the suggestion of France. Paris is scheduled to rejoin the EC currency float
immediately prior to the meeting. In addition, the leaders are preparing for informal
discussion of the future of the Community, in the wake of the UK referendum.
The relatively smooth operation of EC meetings during the past six months is
due in large part to the chairmanship of Irish Foreign Minister FitzGerald. Political
developments in Italy are expected to preoccupy the incoming Italian chairman
during his six-month term, and this may preclude any comparable performance.
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June 27, 1975
Lisbon's decision to meet some of the demands voiced by Azorean farmers and
small businessmen during the disruptive demonstrations in Ponta Delgada earlier this
month should reduce popular discontent with the mainland and at least temporarily
dampen support for separation. Problems remain, however, and if Lisbon fails to
address them, discontent may increase.
The measures being taken to mollify the islanders are aimed largely at two
major sectors, agriculture and cattle raising, but action is promised in other areas as
well. New pricing policies on cattle exports and critical raw materials imports, as
well as equalization of tobacco taxes, should ease the economic pinch on many
producers. Not addressed, however, was another serious economic problem, that of
raising the price Azoreans receive for milk. Additionally, the Azoreans desire a more
clearly defined political-administrative relationship between the islands and Lisbon
and the appointment of a new district civil governor for Ponta Delgada.
Meanwhile, an alleged plan to paint Azorean Liberation Front wall slogans on
Terceira Island-where the airfield used by the US and Portugal is located-earlier
this week apparently was frustrated by military and police roadblocks. This prompt
and energetic action reflects an increased readiness to react to even minimal
separatist threats. Barring unforeseen developements, Lisbon's economic
concessions, increased security precautions by Azorean miiitary units, and the
Front's reported lack of funds, arms, and inter-island coordination make it unlikely
that the separatists could organize an uprising in the near future
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Canadian Foreign Minister MacEachen arrives in Seoul today on an offical visit
during which he will try to strengthen the safeguards provisions of the draft nuclear
sales agreement now under, consideration by Canada and South Korea. Ottawa is
delaying approval of the sale of a nuclear power reactor to Seoul while it reviews
further the provisions for bilateral safeguards.
Seoul had agreed to Canadian demands that it sign the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty and accept a separate bilateral safeguards agreement.
President Pak's recent public statement, however, that if the US withdraws its
nuclear umbrella, South Korea would have to begin developing its own nuclear
weapons has heightened Ottawa's concern over possible misuse of Canadian-supplied
nuclear material and technology. Another two to three months may well be required
to negotiate the safeguards arrangements.
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Prime Minister Trudeau appeared to come down on the side of encouraging
sales of Canadian nuclear equipment and technology-albeit under strigent
safeguards-when he recently told the House of Commons that developing countries
badly need energy, and hence it would be wrong to withhold needed technology. He
noted at the same time, however, that Canada was faced with a dilemma: by
disseminating nuclear technology, Canada also -ran a risk of contributing to the
proliferation of nuclear weapons.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Tension is building in Bangkok over plans by the National Student Center of
Thailand to stage anti-US demonstrations on July 4. Thai police estimate that 5,000
to 10,000 demonstrators may assemble in front of the US embassy, but even if the
organizers can not turn out such numbers, there is a potential for serious trouble.
Thai military and police officials were upset over student destruction of the US
embassy seal during protests over the Mayaguez affair last month, and they have
promised US officials that such action will not happen again. Army commander Krit
Siwara, whose political ambitions have until now kept him from speaking out in
public against student activism, criticized the proposed anti-US demonstrations
during a press conference on June 24. Krit said they would create unnecessary
misunderstandings between Thailand and the US.
Last month, Prime Minister Khukrit assured Krit and other key generals that he
was prepared to get tough with student agitators, if they threatened the physical
security of the US embassy on July 4. Khukrit is now scheduled to be in China next
week and to remain through July 4.
Although his trip may deflect public attention from the planned
demonstration, there is the possibility that the situation will get out of hand in his
absence. Student planners, while claiming the demonstrations will be peaceful, are
quoted in the Thai press to the effect that they will meet violence with violence.
Although the government will be anxious to avoid any embarrassing incidents
at home while Khukrit: is in Peking, some security officials may be quite prepared to
crack down on leftist agitators if they become unruly.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 27, 1975
Colombia: President Lopez has extended to the entire country the state of
siege he imposed in three widely separated areas last week. Continuing student
demonstrations, protests against economic hardships, and a recent outbreak of
guerrilla activity have obliged Lopez to move forthrightly to maintain order. By
imposing martial law and all but abandoning his policy of broadening civil liberties,
Lopez is almost certain to face the most serious political challenge of his ten-month
tenure.
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