NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027700010046-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 5, 2006
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: May 28, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 28, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Socialists pressured to back
down from challenge to Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
LEBANON: Choice for new prime minister
may be announced today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
LAOS: Agreement reached to end
occupation of US compound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
SPAIN: Ultrarightists press
for Arias' removal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 28, 1975
The General Assembly's announcement on Monday that it will seek links with
"popular organizations" is bringing pressure on the Socialists to back down from
their challenge of the ruling Armed Forces Movement. The details of the assembly
proposal are to be ironed out by a working group, and debate within the military on
this issue is probably not over; in any case, it will take considerable time to put the
proposal into effect.
The Socialists, who have used the issue of the seizure of their newspaper
Republica to test the Movement's commitment to democratic forms, may have
overestimated the leverage they gained from their election victory last month. Even
moderate officers appear to have gone along with blaming the Socialists for the
current political situation. For some moderates such a position may be self-serving,
but many probably genuinely believe the Socialists have pushed too fast and too
hard.
The Socialists evidently believe they have a choice-either back down,
encouraging the Communists, or quit the government, leaving the field to the
Communists. No decision, they said, will be made until another round of discussions
is held with the leading military figures later this week. On the other hand, a
favorable decision on the Republica issue may give them a way out.
Socialist leader Soares, meanwhile, has been in Paris seeking support from
several West European Socialist parties. In a Le Monde interview, Soares pointed to
the contradiction between the Brezhnev policy of detente and the Stalinist attitude
of the Portuguese Communists.
Soares confirmed that he had met with Spanish Communist leader Carrillo to
discuss the "common problems of socialism and democracy." The Spanish
Communists, along with the Italian Communists, have found that events in Portugal
are hurting their own efforts to pose as responsible parties that can work within a
democratic framework.
The Portuguese Communists have paid little heed to the problems they are
causing other European Communists. The Communists are saying they are the vital
link between the Armed Forces Movement and the people. The Communists have
called for a demonstration, which they describe as supporting the Movement. The
demonstration, set for today, will coincide with the beginning of shore leave in
Lisbon for US and other NATO ship crews who have been on maneuvers off the
Portuguese coast.
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May 28, 1975
Lebanese President Franjiyah yesterday completed consultations with leaders
of the country's several political and religious factions in preparation for designating
a new prime minister. According to press reports from Beirut, he may announce his
choice this morning.
The new government may be composed primarily of persons not members of
parliament, according to reports reaching the US embassy. Representatives of
extremist right- and left-wing political parties presumably would be excluded to
provide the cabinet a neutral image less likely to elicit partisan criticism.
The Phalangists would probably tolerate such a cabinet, pending evidence of its
ability to restore civil order. Phalangist leaders are in a weak position to demand
more; their preferred solution-the military cabinet-met with overwhelming
opposition from all Muslim and even some Christian groups.
Lebanese leftists and the fedayeen would endorse such a cabinet if it were
headed by a prime minister acceptable to them and to Syria. Sunni Muslim leader
Rashid Karami, who is scheduled to meet with President Franjiyah today, is still the
front runner and would meet these requirements.
Scattered small-arms fire continued in several parts of Beirut yesterday, but the
city was quieter than at any time in the past week. Authorities claim to have
arrested -a number of snipers from far-left groups attempting to spark new violence,
and have called on all government employees to return to work this morning. The
general strike proclaimed by leftist groups on May 24 has been suspended.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 28, 1975
After several days of very difficult negotiations with Pathet Lao government
ministers and communist-inspired demonstrators, the US charge has reached an
agreement to end the week-long occupation of the USAID and defense attache
compound in Vientiane. US officials hope to reoccupy the compound today and
release the two US Marine guards and one American civilian who have been
barricaded inside since the disturbances began.
We have received the official text of the agreement, and its provisions include:
--the withdrawal of most demonstrators from inside the compound, except for
a small "protest committee"-ostensibly composed of Lao employees of
USAID-who are to continue "working in a normal manner";
--the stationing of students and "mixed police" outside the entrances to the
compound to maintain security and to "observe";
--"guarantees" by the "protesting group" not to threaten or physically harm
Americans or other USAID employees regardless of nationality;
--reentry of essential American and third-country-national USAI D officials and
employees into the compound to begin the phase-down and termination of
USAID operations;
--payment of the back wages of Lao employees of USAID and agreement to
keep them on the payroll until operations cease.
The agreement also formalizes the previously announced US intention to
dissolve USAID, to withdraw all of its American personnel, and to turn over all
USAID equipment and facilities to the Lao government (consistent with the terms
of past bilateral assistance pacts) no later than June 30, 1975.
The charge finalized negotiations on the agreement at considerable personal
risk. He was forced to shuttle between the US embassy and the coalition's
Economics Ministry for eleventh-hour dealings with chief minister Soth Phetrasy-a
Pathet Lao member and main go-between with the demonstrators. Approximately
150 to 200 unruly student demonstrators, including a student "commando" unit,
had gathered outside the ministry. The students threatened that if no agreement on
the USAID compound was reached, they would destroy the charge's car, hold him
hostage, and move on to "destroy" another US government installation in Vientiane.
Even after the agreement was consummated, student protesters threatened to kill
the charge and other US officials in the event that it subsequently unravels.
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May 28, 1975
Elsewhere in Vientiane, looters remained on the rampage at the large US
residential housing complex in the capital's northern suburbs and at Wattay airport,
where the household effects of many departing Americans are temporarily stored.
Pathet Lao "security guards" at both sites made no effort to intervene.
The Pathet Lao have beefed up their military contingents at both installations.
At least one Pathet Lao combat battalion is reported to be camped along the main
runway at Wattay, and a number of 23-mm. and 37-mm. antiaircraftartillery pieces
now ring the airfield. Meanwhile 60 Pathet
Lao combat troops and several field guns have been positioned near the entrance to
the American housing compound north of Vientiane. A maximum effort will be
made today to complete the evacuation of the estimated 80 or so Americans still in
the compound.
After some prodding from the US embassy, the local diplomatic corps in
Vientiane has finally bestirred itself and joined in trying to pressure Pathet Lao
Deputy Prime Minister Phoumi Vongvichit to call off or at least moderate the
current round of anti-American demonstrations. Over the past few days, the Soviet,
French, British, Australian, and Indian ambassadors have made diplomatic
representations to Phoumi.
According to several of his Western diplomatic colleagues, Soviet Ambassador
Vdovine cautioned Phoumi that the communist-dominated coalition was playing a
dangerous game, and that its actions were risking a break in relations with the US
and every other Western country with an embassy in Vientiane.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 28, 1975
Ultrarightists are using the issue of continued unrest in the Basque provinces to
renew their demands for the removal of Prime Minister Arias.
Ultraright opposition actions spread last week to Madrid, where a memorial
mass for victims of Basque terrorism-including several policemen-concluded With .a
march to police headquarters to express disapproval of Arias' handling of Basque
unrest and his alleged tolerance of Basque separatist activities. Leaflets urging Arias
to step down were circulated, including one that alluded to President Ford's visit to
Madrid this weekend by calling for a leader who would be representative of the
people and who would "defend the bases." The police made no effort to halt the
demonstration.
The ultraright is trying to exploit popular revulsion to the killing of policemen
to further its goal of ousting the Prime Minister, who is identified with the drive to
liberalize the political system. The rightists are not likely to succeed in having Arias
removed now, but they probably believe they can induce Prince Juan Carlos to
choose another prime minister when he succeeds Franco.
The government is resorting to tougher countermeasures to deal with the
unrest. Last week, Madrid ordered a domestic news blackout on all but official
reporting from the two Basque provinces where a state of emergency was imposed
last month. The ban followed reports of widespread arrests and mistreatment of
political suspects and was intended to prevent antiregime elements from exploiting
the government's problems with the Basques.
The lines are being drawn on the issue of public order. The commanding
general of the sixth military region, during a visit to security forces in the Basque
area, pointedly told the police that the army is behind them but noted that it is the
police, not the army, that is entrusted with maintaining public order. The Spanish
bishops' conference has issued a statement repudiating violence in terms that make it ,
clear that violence, even in the name of public order, is unacceptable.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 28, 1975
Czechoslovakia: The Czechoslovak party Central Committee yesterday named
party chief Gustav Husak to succeed President Ludvik Svoboda, who has been ailing
for more than a year. Husak's "election" will be formalized at -a meeting of the
Federal Assembly today. He will continue to hold the top party post at least until
the party congress next spring.
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