NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027500010040-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: March 24, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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N2 657
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: Hue under siege. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Clearance of rocket belt is key to continuation
of ai ft. (Page 5)
PORTUGAL: New cabinet expected to be announced this
week. (Page 9)
ARGENTINA: Strains within government. (Page 15)
CHILE: Meeting on debt rescheduling postponed. (Page 16)
VENEZUELA-MEXICO: Presidents propose meeting of Latin
heads of state. (Page 18)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: General Andriamahazo asks US for
arms. (Page 19
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 20)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
The city of Hue is now besieged. The deterioration
of the northern defense :Line and the closing by the Com-
munists of Route 1 south of the city have prompted the
regional commander to"implement the final contingency
plan for the defense of the city. Government forces in
Thua Thien Province are being pulled back to tighten
Hue's defensive perimeter, and a firm stand to save the
former imperial capital has been ordered. With their
overland escape routes c:Lose!d, the remaining government
forces are compelled to fight. An estimated 50,000 peo-
ple are awaiting sea transportation from the Hue area to
Da Nang, and another 50,000 may be doubling back to the
city because of Route 1 being closed. The province
originally had a population of over 700,000.
Elsewhere in the northern provinces, despite plum-
meting morale and a mushrooming desertion rate, govern-
ment forces are still protecting most major towns and
a small strip of territory along the coast.. Territorial
forces have surprised regional commanders by opening a
stretch of Route 1 in southern Quang Ngai Province, where
the Communists are strong. That strategic highway is
now open from there to a point a few miles north of
Da Nang. Meanwhile, pressure is building around the
major cities on the central coast. Ground attacks and
shellings near Qui Nhon in Binh Dinh Province may force
units of the South Vietnamese 22nd Division to move from
outlying northern districts to bolster Qui Nhon's defen-
ses. Binh Dinh's westernmost district was abandoned over
the weekend.
The Communists are also pushing out of the mountains
northwest of Nha Trang. A tank-led Communist force on
Saturday overran a 22nd Division regiment charged with
defending the Khanh Duong District capital. and is now
face to face with the airborne brigade brought down from
Da Nang. This enemy force is in a good position to out-
flank the airborne unit and move directly toward Nha
Trang.
Government forces have been unable to open avenues
of escape from the highland provinces, and the fate of
large numbers of military personnel and civilians remains
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National Intelligence Bulletin
very much in doubt.
March 24, 1975
The pressure on Tay Ninh continues to escalate. The
concentration of three Communist divisions converging on
the province has led some senior government commanders
to question the wisdom of defending Tay Ninh. They argue
that most of the population has already fled, that keep-
ing access to the province open is extremely difficult,
and that government forces there are heavily outnumbered.
To the northeast of Saigon, Communist forces con-
tinue to expand their holdings along Route 20--a key
roadnet linking Saigon with the southern highlands. Sev-
eral government units have been severely battered in
Long Khanh and Binh Tuy provinces, and some airborne
units of.Saigon's reserve have been sent to shore up the
defenses of the provincial capital of Xuan Loc.
in the delta, the mid-month flurry of Communist
activity has all but subsided. North Vietnamese units
are still clustered around several important government
centers, but no major military action is now being con-
ducted by either side. An important concern of the
military hierarchy in the delta is the possibility that
the South Vietnamese 7th Division might be redeployed to
strengthen Saigon's defenses--a move that would weaken
the government's already overextended regular forces in
MR 4 by one third.
Although there have been few large-scale Communist
attacks or set battles during the past week, the impli-
cations of the government's sudden withdrawals from the
highlands and from north of Hue are causing anxiety and
bitterness among much of the South Vietnamese population
and grave doubts among many military leaders.
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March 24, 1975
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At the same time that criticism mounts against
President Thieu, anti-Americanism is also threatening
to reach serious proportions. Many South Vietnamese,
from ordinary citizens to officers who have, cooperated
with Americans over the years, believe that insufficient
American materiel support is a key factor in last week's
ominous events. Americans have been warned to keep a
low profile in Nha Trang, administrative center of Mili-
tary Region 2, which includes the highlands. Some South
Vietnamese officers also report concern about growing
animosity against their troops and the military estab-
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Cambodia: Lower Mekong
Tuol Leapt)
e.-.ovelnme }t
peration stalled
Pose ions to beIS
. b.gidoned
Pos%tions abandoned
e Banam
Neak Wong
River
narrows
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
The US airlift into Cambodia, which was suspended
following Communist rocket attacks on March 22, was re-
sumed today. It could be interrupted again, however, if
government operations to clear the "rocket belt" north-
west of Pochentong airfield fail to suppress Communist
rocket attacks. While there has been no significant
increase in the number of rockets being fired on Pochen-
tong, they are impacting more frequently on the opera-
tional portion of the field.
West of the capital, Communist attacks forced gov-
ernment troops to abandon three battalion-size positions
between Tuol Leap and Route 4 over the weekend and have
temporarily disrupted the government operation to clear
the
rocket belt northeast of the town. Some Cambodian
army
units scheduled to participate in that operation
have
been diverted to retake the lost positions and close
the
gap
in the government's defense line, which
could
pose
an
even more serious threat to Pochentong
airfield
and
the
Kantouk ammunition depots. One of the
positions
has
been
reoccupied. Meanwhile, intensified artillery
and
air
strikes are being directed against Communist
rocket launching position:; and will continue until gov-
ernment forces stabilize the situation south of Tuol
Leap and are freed to begin clearing operations.
Elsewhere in the Phnom Penh area, government de-
fenders north of the capital remain under steady Commu-
nist pressure, but are holding their positions. East
of the city, reinforced government operations succeeded
in dislodging Communist troops which had again infil-
trated to the riverbank opposite the capital. Farther
upstream, the navy today plans to evacuate two positions.
Government units yesterday abandoned a position along
the Bassac River southeast of the capital.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
Along the Mekong River, Communist forces are keeping
the pressure on government defenders at Neak Luong and
Banam with shelling and ground attacks. On March 22,
the insurgents forced government troops to abandon an
island opposite Banam, which will facilitate shelling
attacks on the town.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
The new Portuguese cabinet that is expected to be
announced early this week almost certainly will be more
compatible with the radical views of Prime Minister Gon-
calves than the two previous, moderately leftist cabi-
nets.
The Communist-dominated Democratic Movement, a sep-
arate party, will probably :join the coalition of Social-
ists, Communists, and Popular Democrats. It is widely
rumored that each party will be given equal representa-
tion and that the leader of each will be appointed a
minister without portfolio.
Socialist Party leader Mario Soares reportedly op-
poses this arrangement, preferring to remain foreign
minister. The Socialists also want Francisco Zenha to
remain justice minister. Perhaps to bring additional
pressure on the Socialists to conform, Goncalves con-
sulted over the weekend with the leaders of two other
leftwing parties that are known to have close associa-
tions with the Communists.
Whatever the makeup of the cabinet, the newly es-
tablished Revolutionary Council will exercise the real
power as the Armed Forces Movement's executive body.
The addition over the weekend of four relatively mod-
erate new members was tempered somewhat by the warning
that they cannot participate fully as long as they hold
their current jobs. One, Vitor Alves, is expected to
become Portugal's next ambassador to the UN.
The Revolutionary Council has assigned itself the
power to make structural changes in the economy. This
power presumably will enable the Council to set aside
the moderate, three-year economic program that was ap-
proved with great difficulty only a few months ago.
Approval of the economic plan had been a trade-off for
endorsement by the moderates of the law giving the Com-
munists substantial control over the labor movement.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
Electoral violence, meanwhile, broke out again over
the weekend in the northern city of Oporto. Popular Dem-
ocrats chased extreme leftists, who broke up one of their
rallies, into local Communist party headquarters. Police
ended the fray, but not before the extremists had fired
shots from the headquarters in response to stone-throw-
ing by the crowd.
The Social Democratic Center Party, the only center-
right party still allowed to participate in the election,
announced it will stay in the campaign, even though in-
timidation has reached the point where its leaders no
longer sleep at home.
The Portuguese military also seems to be in dis-
arr ay. The US defense attache reports that discipline
within the ranks is practically non-existent. Any order
that calls for a unit to move must come through more
than one channel. leach air
base has a sergeants' counci ; an order from the base
commander to dispatch aircraft is not executed until
the seargeants' council at the base receives verifica-
tion from the sergeants' council in Lisbon.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
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Strains are growing within the Peronist movement
as the government faces the bloodiest wave of political
violence since President Peron assumed power last July.
More than two dozen persons have been killed in
recent days, and over a hundred arrested by police in an
attempt to halt the occupation of factories by workers
protesting the detention of left-wing trade union leaders.
The leftists were rounded up last Thursday when Buenos
Aires announced that it had uncovered a plot by an "anti-
national minority" to paralyze key Argentine industries.
Meanwhile, leaders in the Peronist-controlled labor
movement, which forms the bulwark of Mrs. Peron's support,
are maneuvering to gain greater influence in the govern-
ment and to bring pressure on the President to remove
her chief adviser, Welfare Minister Lopez Rega. A show-
down may be postponed until early April, however, in
order to preserve chances for a better margin of victory
for the Peronists in the elections in Misiones Province.
If Mrs. Peron does not make some of the compromises
labor wants, she will probably find it joining the mili-
tary in demanding major changes in her government to
deal with deteriorating political and economic conditions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
France, which chairs the Paris Club of Chile's cred-
itors, has decided to postpone indefinitely a meeting on
debt rescheduling that had been set to open today.
Several Paris Club members, such as the UK, Italy,
and the Netherlands, had indicated they would not attend
the March meeting. They are reluctant for domestic po-
litical reasons to appear to be cooperating with the
Chilean military government, since it has been the sub-
ject of widespread criticism for its treatment of left-
ist political opponents.
It had appeared that the meeting would be held with-
out these countries when West Germany decided to attend,
but France, citing the boycott by most Common Market mem-
bers of the Paris Club, called it off. A high French
official has told the US ambassador that President Gis-
card did not want to risk criticism from the French left.
Among those who would not have attended the meeting,
only the UK is a major creditor of Chile.
Failure to get a new rescheduling agreement would
delay Santiago's efforts to cope with severe balance-of-
payments strains engendered by low copper prices. More
than a half of Chile's expected balance-of-payments
deficit this year is accounted for by the $710 million
due on its foreign debts. Santiago wants to reschedule
a major portion of the $565 million due to members of
the Paris Club this year. Cancellation of the March
meeting could lessen the chances of obtaining some of
this relief.
Cancellation would force Chile to try to renegoti-
ate these debts bilaterally. In the meantime, Santiago
might simply default on amounts due to countries unwill-
ing--for political reasons--to discuss rescheduling.
The government would resort to default reluctantly, given
its strong desire to improve Chile's credit standing.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
The Paris Club postponement could provide ammunition
for attacks by some developing countries on normal credi-
tor-debtor relationships. Some favor linking debt repay-
ment schedules with export earnings, so that sharp de-
clines in earnings would trigger automatic reductions in
debt service obligations.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
VENEZUELA-MEXICO
March 24, 1975
During their talks last week, Presidents Echeverria
of Mexico and Perez of Venezuela called for a meeting of
Latin heads of state to create an exclusively Latin Amer-
ican economic organization. One press report said the
meeting was to take place before May.
The purpose of the proposed grouping, to be known
as the Latin American Economic System, is to stimulate
regional economic development. The cosponsors assert
that it will not duplicate or replace similar organiza-
tions already operating in the region. Among its broad
aims are to:
--promote economic development projects;
--encourage Latin American multinational enter-
prises;
--defend prices and ensure markets for raw materials
and manufactured goods;
--improve the supply of food in the region;
--promote scientific and technical cooperation; and
--promote arrangements with other regional organi-
zations, especially those in the Third World.
Many governments will probably accept an invitation
to join, but old rivalries, differing national interests,
and a concern that the organization might lead to con-
flict with the US will temper their commitments. More-
over, many hemisphere governments do not yet fully under-
stand exactly how the new organization would accomplish
its goals, or what their role in the group would be.
While in Mexico, President Perez played upon sever-
al familiar themes: the need for Latin American unity;
conservation of raw material resources, particularly
petroleum; and better terms of trade for Latin exports
to the US and other industrialized countries.
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National Intelligence Bulletin Match 24, 1975
In one emotional speech, commemorating the 37th an-
niversary of Mexico's expropriation of foreign oil com-
panies, Perez took several thinly veiled swipes at the
US. The tone of his remarks, which surprised even his
Mexican hosts, apparently was intended primarily for po-
litical effect at home, but they were meant to bolster
his claim to Latin American leadership of the less de-
veloped countries. 25X1
MALAGASY REPUBLIC
The chairman of the country's 18-member ruling mil-
itary directory, General Andriamahazo, has urgently re-
quested the US to sell his country small arms and ammuni-
tion. He and his directory colleagues are concerned for
their personal safety and anticipate violence during the
trials--which began Friday---of police personnel and ci-
vilian politicians accused of involvement in the uprising
last month.
The arms requested would strengthen General Andri-
mahazo's hand in dealing with youthful radicals on the
military directory who are pressing for the removal of
the NASA tracking station near Tananarive unless the US
agrees to pay a much higher rent for it. 25X1
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 24, 1975
Hungary: The Hungarian party congress that ended
on Saturday reaffirmed the leadership and moderate
policies of party chief Janos Kadar. Lajos Feher and
Rezso Nyers, advocates of economic reform who lost polit-
ical ground a year ago, were removed from the Politburo,
as was Gyula Kallai, a conservative who had a reputation
for high living. The election of the four new Politburo
members does not appear to alter the political balance
in the top leadership. Speeches during the congress
reiterated Budapest's moderate policies, but left little
doubt that the regime is still committed to improving
central economic controls and to increasing attention
to ideology in the media and culture.
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