CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010006-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 6
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
-
He
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s)
State Dept. review
Top Secret
January 27, 1975
N2 638
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 27, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: More violence,
age
OPEC: Ministerial meeting concludes in Algiers. (Page 3)
USSR-EGYPT: Foreign Minister Gromyko will visit Egypt
early next week. (Page 4)
ECUADOR: Navy seizes US tuna boats, (Page 5)
PERU: Additional Soviet weapons detected in Peru.
(Page 6)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist propaganda blames Saigon and
Washington for continued warfare. (Page 7)
CAMBODIA: Mekong River convoy reaches Phnom Penh.
(Page 9)
JAPAN: Unemployment increases sharply. (Page 10)
NIGERIA: General Gowon appoints new cabinet. (Page 12)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Ramanantsoa dissolves cabinet.
(Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 13)
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
PORTUGAL
Politically motivated street violence erupted in
Portugal over the weekend, and more is expected this week.
The forced cancellation of the first party congress
of the Social Democratic Center Party by radical left-
wing groups has dampened the chances for free and orderly
elections this spring. Party delegates and observers
from several European parties were trapped overnight in-
side the congress hall in Oporto, Portugal's second
largest city. Police kept demonstrators from breaking
in, but the crowd could not be dispersed until internal
security forces arrived from Lisbon early yesterday.
Leaders of the Social Democratic Center, dubbed
"fascist" by the left, had anticipated violence. Elements
of the extreme left ransacked their party headquarters
and broke up a party youth rally late last year, and the
far left had said it would prevent the congress from tak-
ing place.
Extremist groups held another demonstration in Oporto
yesterday--with security forces present--and called for
the dissolution of the Social Democratic Center. Party
leaders, according to press reports, will consider that
option. If they do disband, there will be no viable
rightist party participating in the constituent assembly
elections.
The Communists, meanwhile, have announced that they
intend to hold a demonstration next Friday to compete
with one already scheduled by the Socialists. The pur-
pose of the Socialist gathering is to continue opposition
to the unitary labor law approved by the cabinet last
week. The Communist Party, reportedly believing the So-
cialists' rally will be successful, hope to draw off some
of their support. Tensions are rising, and a clash be-
tween the two groups could become serious,
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I I
National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
The OPEC oil, finance, and foreign ministers con-
cluded their meeting in Algiers yesterday by calling for
a summit conference of OPEC chiefs of state and agreeing
to a meeting between oil consumers and producers.
The summit conference, scheduled to take place some-
time between February 21 and March 8,-will focus on devel-
oping coordinated OPEC positions for discussions with oil
importers. The ministers agreed that the meeting with
importers should be attended by representatives of devel-
oping countries as well as industrialized nations, as
sought by the French.
The date and site of the international conference
were not set, but Saudi Oil Minister Yamani told reporters
that a preliminary meeting could be held in March to
establish an agreed agenda for a full-scale conference
of exporters and importers.
In other action, the Algerians proposed that the
freeze on oil prices be continued throughout 1975, but
that the price be increased in 1976 and 1977 based on
an index correlated to "certain factors to be defined"
and the rate of inflation. Other items discussed included
the.prospect that Western nations might scrap official
gold rates and thus revalue their currencies, and the
threat posed to OPEC by the International Energy Agency.
The vagueness of the final communique, however, indicates
that the conference focused on generalities.
The outcome of the conference was as good as could
be expected from the consumers' point of view. The final
communique was moderate, and various ministers--including
those from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria--indicated
that the conferees had decided to adopt a position of
cooperation rather than confrontation.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
USSR-EGYPT
Foreign Minister Gromyko's upcoming trip to Cairo,
set for February 3-5, appears to be an attempt by the
Soviets to prevent a further deterioration in their re-
lations with Egypt.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi indicated at the
time of the announcement on Saturday that the visit is
a result of continuing exchanges between General Secretary
Brezhnev and President Sadat.
Gromyko probably will attempt to keep the lines of
communication open between Cairo and Moscow in the after-
math of the postponement in late December of a trip by
Brezhnev to the Middle East. The Soviets have been ir-
ritated by Sadat's renewed public criticism of the USSR
and may be particularly concerned over his threat, made
in an interview in Le monde last week, to abrogate the
Soviet-Egyptian friendship treaty.
The Soviet foreign minister may also be seeking a
reading on the state of Egyptian-Israeli disengagement
talks, particularly in view of Secretary of State Kissin-
ger's reported plans to visit the Middle East next month.
Moscow has continued to snipe at Egyptian support for the
US-sponsored, step-by-step approach to a settlement with
Israel. Gromyko's trip will give both international and
domestic Soviet audiences the image of a continuing role
for the USSR in the region.
The contentious subject of Soviet arms supplies to
Egypt is certain to be aired. The Soviets have been
moving slowly--if at all--to fulfill the pledge, made
during Fahmi's visit to Moscow late last month, to sup-
ply Egypt with the weapons it had ordered prior to the
October 1973 war. Only one Soviet ship carrying mili-
tary equipment has arrived in Alexandria since Fahmi's
trip.
It seems unlikely that Gromyko will offer to re-
schedule the Brezhnev trip, given the strains in Soviet-
Egyptian relations and Brezhnev's uncertain health. A
Soviet press officer recently told a US embassy official
in Moscow that he does not expect Brezhnev to visit the
Middle East soon.
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I I
National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
The navy seized four US tuna boats Saturday for al-
legedly fishing within Ecuadorean territorial waters. A
Canadian boat was also taken but subsequently released.
The seizures, the first since the 1972-73 fishing
season, come at the same time Quito is charging that the
US Trade Reform Act discriminates against Ecuador because
of its membership in OPEC. They also follow the promulga-
tion of a revised fishing law on January 1 and the recent
erosion of the authority of the navy in the area of nat-
ural resources. The navy is seeking US assistance in
modernizing its fleet.
The new fishing law reaffirms Ecuador's claim to a
200-mile territorial sea limit, within which foreign
fishing boats are required to be licensed to operate.
It also establishes a zone within 40 miles of shore in
which foreign fishing is prohibited altogether.
Naval headquarters in Guayaquil announced that the
seizures on Saturday took place ""40 miles off the coast-
line." This ambiguity appears to give Ecuadorean offi-
cials the option of treating the matter either as a
simple case of unlicensed fishing, with heavy fines the
likely penalty, or as fishing in a prohibited zone, with
the additional possibilities of confiscation of the catch
and the boats and jailing of the crews.
Traditional rivalries between the army and navy
within Ecuador's military government have been unusually
sharp since October, when President Rodriguez, an army
general, eased out the powerful and ambitious Admiral
Gustavo Jarrin, who, as minister of natural resources,
had been responsible for administering both fishing and
petroleum. Subsequently, an army officer was appointed
military governor of Guayas Province, historical seat of
naval authority which had been governed by a naval offi-
cer.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 27, 1975
The boat seizures may thus serve different purposes
for different persons or groups. It is a tactic Presi-
dent Rodriguez can use in attempting to impress the US
with his displeasure over the trade act. It is also a
way the Ecuadorean navy can assert itself within the gov-
ernment.
In these circumstances, Ecuador is likely to take a
strong initial position in dealing with the crews, their
parent companies, and US consular officers. By pegging
the seizure to the far limit of the 40-mile prohibited
zone, however, the government may be suggesting that it
is willing to temper enforcement to match US flexibility
in other aspects of bilateral relations.
Soviet 122-mm howitzers and truck-mounted rocket
launchers have been detected in Peru for the first time.
They were seen by the US army attache at a new military
complex just north of Lima. `
These weapons augment other Soviet equipment already
in Peru--T-55 tanks, MI-8 helicopters, and portable
bridge units. The bridge equipment, which is capable
of supporting T-55s, was noted moving south from the
capital in mid-January. It may be positioned in the
south as part of Lima's continuing effort to increase
its military capability near the Chilean border. F
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
SOUTH VIETNAM
Communist commentary on the second anniversary of
the Paris cease-fire agreement today is predictably
blaming Saigon and Washington for the continued warfare
in South Vietnam.
In a communique on January 17, the Viet Cong's Pro-
visional Revolutionary Government repeated its pronounce-
ment of last October that President Thieu must resign
and that all US aid to South Vietnam must cease before
serious consideration can again be given to resuming
negotiations. The PRG also published a lengthy "white
book" which details alleged cease-fire violations by the
US and Saigon during the past two years and claims that
the Communists will continue to respect and implement
the Paris Accords.
The Communists have reacted strongly to President
Ford's statement that he will ask Congress for supple-
mental military aid for the Saigon government. In an
authoritative article in Nhan Dan, their party daily,
the North. Vietnamese vigorously attacked the aid request
as a clear indication of the unwillingness of the US to
implement the cease-fire agreement.. The article also
attempted to portray continued US assistance to Saigon
as ample justification for the Communists' military cam-
paign in the South.
The Communists have been emphasizing the recent
decision to allow the PRG to open a liaison office to
UN humanitarian offices headquartered in Geneva. In
the process, the Communists have been pointing to the
Paris Accords' description of "two South Vietnamese
parties" as tantamount to recognition of the existence
of the PRG as a legitimate and co-equal South Vietnamese
governmental entity. Communist stress on this line is
intended to support the PRG's current efforts to gain
at least observer status in other UN forums, such as
the coming Law of War and World Meteorological confer-
ences.
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Cambodia: Lower Mekong
O udong
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National Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA
January 27, 1975
A Mekong River convoy has reached the Cambodian
capital; it is the second convoy in three days to com-
plete the trip from South Vietnam. The arrival of the
two convoys will provide a psychological lift to the
Cambodians, whose Mekong lifeline had been cut since
early this month.
A tanker and two barges escorted by 18 naval craft
arrived in Phnom Penh on Saturday night carrying much-
needed petroleum and ammunition. Naval and air support
reportedly were excellent during the 60-mile trip.
A second tanker which had started with the convoy
returned to Neak Luong because of a fire resulting from
several hits. Repairs were made, and the ship completed
the journey to Phnom Penh yesterday.
Communist forces also are continuing rocket attacks
on Phnom Penh and nearby Pochentong airfield. Relatively
little damage has resulted so far. A recent increase
in fighting north and west of Phnom Penh, however, may
represent a Communist attempt to get close enough to
Pochentong for more accurate rocket and howitzer attacks.
Elsewhere, fighting over the weekend was relatively
light and scattered.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
The number of unemployed workers rose about one
third in December, according to a special survey by the
Ministry of Labor. Further increases are likely over
the next few months.
Although the one million unemployed represent only
about 2 percent of the labor force, the number is up
from 700,000 in November and is the highest figure in
about 20 years. The rate, moreover, does not take into
account the large number of temporary layoffs, early re-
tirements, and paid "vacations" announced recently by
Japanese firms.
Most of the increase in unemployment has occurred
in manufacturing, where producers appear to have given
up on a quick upturn in sales and are trying to reduce
record inventories by temporary closings or work-force
reductions. This task is particularly difficult in
Japan, however, as the lifetime employment system is en-
trenched, and corporations rather than the government
are expected to maintain the incomes of wage-earners.
Most firms have increased the number of holidays or
closed for a week or two. Full pay for workers in these
cases is common, and even those laid off for long periods
are usually given up to 90 percent of their pay. The
record number of bankruptcies and of unemployment bene-
fi.t applications, however, indicates serious strains on
the system, and Tokyo is under increasingly heavy pres-
sure to ease its anti-inflationary policies to boost de-
mand and production.
Tokyo augmented its unemployment benefits system
last month and has provided loans to the industries
hardest hit, but it insists that no major expansionary
program is likely to be launched for several months.
The government had not anticipated, however, that the
rate of unemployment would rise so quickly. Prior to
the release of the end-of-December figures, the number
of unemployed had not been expected to reach one million
until March.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
The government has been holding off on policy shifts,
hoping to bring the rate of inflation down from the cur-
rent 25 percent a year to about 15 percent by the start
of the nationwide round of wage negotiations in March and
April. Relatively high unemployment would tend to reduce
wage demands as well.
Industrial output is nearly 15 percent below last
year's level, and stocks of unsold goods are still on
the rise. Further production cuts have been announced
for the next several months in many industries. As the
recession drags on, additional unemployment is almost
certain.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
A new 19-man cabinet--the Federal Executive Council--
was appointed by General Gowon last Friday for a three-
year term.
Although cabinet members do not sit on the Supreme
Military Council, Nigeria's highest formal executive
body, they exert considerable influence on Gowon and the
senior military leadership in setting foreign and eco-
nomic policy.
The cabinet is now composed mainly of military and
police officials, with several of the 11 new members
middle-grade officers. The ministerial shuffle partially
fulfills a pledge made by Gowon in October to bring new
blood into the country's leadership. The important port-
folios of external affairs, economic development, fi-
nance, and mines and power, however, are in the hands of
civilian incumbents.
Gowon now faces the delicate political task of
naming a new set of military governors, which he has
promised to do by April 1. The governors hold a major-
ity of seats on the Supreme Military Council, and any
large intake of younger officers at this high level in
April could have important effects on national policy.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 27, 1975
MALAGASY REPUBLIC
General Ramanantsoa, the head of government, has
dissolved the cabinet and promised to form a new govern-
ment in an attempt to end military and tribal unrest.
Ramanantsoa claimed the change was the result of economic
difficulties. He made no mention of political tensions.
The government has faced a serious crisis since an
unsuccessful coup attempt by military officers on January
1. The officers, members of Madagascar's coastal tribes,
resent the Ramanantsoa government's domination by Merina
tribesmen of central Madagascar.
Ramanantsoa apparently intends at this point to form
a new government with a larger representation of coastal
tribesmen.
Bangladesh: Mujibur Rahman was sworn in as Presi-
dent on Saturday, following swift parliamentary approval
of his plan to convert Bangladesh to an authoritarian
presidential system. The presidency, formerly a cere-
monial post, will become the focus of executive author-
ity. As President, Mujib now has dictatorial powers,
which he can exercise at his discretion. For example,
he is authorized to declare Bangladesh a one-party state.
Under the new system, the President is to be elected di-
rectly, but neither Mujib nor parliament is required to
run for election until 1980.
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Top Secret
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