NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010042-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: December 12, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
IUMM w- =1
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1974
CONTENTS
CHINA-JAPAN: Peking's reaction to government change in
Tokyo. (Page 3)
INDIA: Deployment of F-class submarine fleet to be
balanced between east and west coasts. (Page 7)
USSR: Exports of high-grade chrome to be phased out.
Page 9)
BURMA: Martial law declared. (Page 12)
PHILIPPINES: Marcos announces release of more than
half of political prisoners. (Page 13)
RHODESIA: Cease-fire announced. (Page 14)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 17)
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 1-2,'1')74
CHINA-JAPAN
In its first public acknowledgement of Japan's
cabinet changes, Peking on Tuesday reported Takeo Miki's
election as prime minister, calling attention to his
statement that Japan would "persistently adhere" to
friendly relations with China.
The Chinese announcement also quoted the new Prime
Minister's reference to the restoration of Sino-Japanese
diplomatic ties during the Tanaka regime as a "great
achievement." The announcement provided no explanation
for Tanaka's decision to resign.
Although Miki has been a leading proponent of close
Japanese ties with Peking, the Chinese have privately
expressed concern about the prospects for continuing
improvement in relations between the two countries with
Miki occupying the top post in Tokyo.
Peking was undoubtedly disappointed by the fall of
Tanaka, whom it regarded as "a friend of China," but
the Chinese will adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward
Miki. The first test could come soon when they sit down
with Japanese representatives to begin formal negotiations
on a long-awaited peace and friendship treaty. Prelimi-
nary discussions have already been held and both sides
have publicly called for as m n+- on the pact
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1974
The navy's diesel attack F-class submarine fleet is
being realigned to reflect new acquisitions, tasking, and
maintenance programs. This will probably result in a
balanced deployment of four F-class units to both the
east and west coasts and give the surface fleet at Bombay
a greater capability for operations and training in anti-
submarine warfare.
There are currently two F-class submarines assigned
to Bombay. Another--the newest acquisition--will prob-
ably make a port call in Mauritius on its way to Bombay.
Still another, which is yet to be delivered, will likely
be assigned to the Western Naval Command at Bombay, for a
total of four operating from the west coast.
The US defense attache office reports that the navy's
only submarine tender has been transferred to Bombay,
shifting the at-sea support capability of the submarine
fleet to the Arabian Sea.
The Eastern Naval Command at Vishakhapatnam already
has a squadron of four F-class submarines. One recently
made a port call in Hong Kong and will visit Kobe, Japan,
on its way to Vladivostok for overhauling. An Indian
crew with extra engineering personnel will assist in this
work and thus gain experience for the future.
Submarine overhauls will ultimately take place at
Vishakhapatnam in a submarine support facility now under
construction with Soviet technical assistance. This
construction is reported to be running behind schedule
and is not expected to be completed before 1980. India
may therefore send two more F-class submarines to the
Soviet Union for overhaul before the facility is com-
pleted.
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Chrome Ore
Soviet Exports o
Chrome ore
1973
Japan
10%
us
24%
Eastern
Europe
22%
USSR
53%
South Africa
9%
Turkey
22%
Rhodesia
11%
Pakistan
5%
Chrome
Imports
1973
Ferrochrom
South Africa
35%
Rhodesia
33%
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1974
Moscow plans to phase out exports of high-grade
chrome ore by the end of 1980. The Soviet Union is the
world's largest exporter of high-grade chrome ore; it
supplies more than half of US imports. The ore is used
in making ferrochrome, which is essential to the pro-
duction of stainless steel.
A member of the State Committee for Science and
Technology has informed the US that Moscow plans to
consume its entire production of high-grade chrome ore
in the domestic production of ferrochrome. The USSR is
negotiating with US, West European, and Japanese firms
for the construction of ferrochrome plants in the USSR,
with repayment to be made in ferrochrome exports. If
negotiations are concluded, the USSR will become the
largest ferrochrome producer in the world.
The USSR, which now exports high-grade ore exclu-
sively, will be following the lead of other major
chrome ore mining nations--Rhodesia, South Africa, and
Turkey--which have expanded their domestic ferrochrome
industries and have reduced exports of ore. Rhodesia
and South Africa have the potential for rapid expansion
of their production of ferrochrome. Most industrialized
countries, including the US, are relying increasingly
on ferrochrome imports to meet the needs of their stain-
less steel industries. US imports of ferrochrome have
more than tripled in the last three years and now supply
about one third of US requirements, while imports of ore
have declined by 46 percent.
Ferrochrome plants consume great quantities of en-
ergy, and this fact combined with costly environmental
controls has made the future of the US industry uncer-
tain. The phasing out of Soviet exports of ore may
hasten the demise of the US ferrochrome industry, but
the emergence of the USSR as an exporter of ferrochrome
presumably will provide adequate supplies of ferrochrome
for US consumption.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1974
The Burmese government has declared martial law
and has moved additional troops and tanks into downtown
Rangoon in an effort to end student-initiated disorders
that began over the government?s arrangements for U
Thant?s funeral. Authorities have also arrested some
2,800 students and Buddhist monks in connection with
the disturbances.
Martial law was put into effect following scattered
outbreaks of violence in Rangoon yesterday by mobs not
entirely limited to students. Troops fired on some of
the demonstrators, but there are no reliable casualty
figures.
The government probably can weather the immediate
crisis as long as the army remains loyal, There is no
apparent civilian alternative to President Ne Win and
his military colleagues who control the government,
and thus far there is no sign of disaffection among
the troops,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1974
President Marcos is taking steps to unravel the
knotty problem of political prisoners held under martial
law. The issue has produced sharp criticism at home,
particularly from the Catholic Church, and has given
his regime a bad press abroad.
Pressure on Marcos over continued detention of
political opponents without trial has been increasing in
recent months. Two of the most famous prisoners, former
newspaper editor Eugenio Lopez and Sergio Osmena, son
of a prominent Filipino politician, conducted a well-
publicized hunger strike in November, and the Manila
archbishop publicly accused the government of torturing
prisoners. Both events attracted widespread attention
from foreign officials and journalists. Marcos was
disturbed at the foreign reaction and the accompanying
allegations that his regime is repressive. He feared
this could adversely affect foreign investment and
assistance.
In a television address on December 11, Marcos
announced the release of over half of almost 1,200
prisoners classified as political detainees. Lopez and
Osmena will be released to a hospital and will subse-
quently be tried in civilian courts on charges of con-
spiracy to assassinate Marcos in 1972. Marcos said
that the government intended to relax the "rigid exercise
of authority," and appealed for national unity.
Releasing the detainees will be a popular move; it
fits in with Marcos' reported plans to hold another
national referendum in January that will rally support
for his regime. A public trial of Lopez and Osmena,
however, could provide a forum for criticism of the
governMpnt and negate any appearance of national consen-
sus.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1974
Prime Minister Smith announced late yesterday that
the insurgents who have been conducting terrorist opera-
tions inside Rhodesia have agreed to an immediate cease-
fire. In return, Smith has agreed to release all black
nationalists, some.of whom have been detained for ten
years.
Smith also said that a conference for negotiating
a constitutional settlement would soon be convened. He
implied that the nationalist leaders who met in Lusaka
last week to formulate a common bargaining position have
agreed to participate in the constitutional conference.
Last Saturday, Smith announced an impasse in the
negotiations. According to Smith, his envoys in Lusaka
were told that the Rhodesian nationalists would not ac-
cept a truce unless he agreed to immediate majority rule.
There are indications, however, that the Rhodesian na-
tionalists meeting in Lusaka did not actually make this
demand.
Smith may have hoped that his disclosure of an al-
legedly extreme demand on the part of the black nation-
alists would soften South African Prime Minister Vor-
ster's earlier demand that he negotiate a compromise
settlement or forfeit South African support. It now
seems more likely that Vorster has pressured Smith to
grant amnesty to the Rhodesian insurgents in return for
a cease-fire.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1974
It will be difficult to make such an agreement
stick, because of past feuding among the insurgents and
the heightening of interracial tensions since the onset
of terrorism two years ago. It may be even more diffi-
cult to reach an agreement for a transition to majority
rule, unless Vorster and the three African presidents
who sponsored the Lusaka talks maintain concerted pres-
sures on smith and the black nationalists
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1974
FOR THE RECORD
USSR - Guinea-Bissau: Soviet General Dagayev, a
Ministry of Defense official responsible for foreign mili-
tary aid programs, reportedly led an official delegation
to Guinea-Bissau in November. The purpose of Dagayev's
visit probably was to assess the military needs of the
newly established government. A military aid agreement
may be signed in the future. It is likely that the So-
viets would sign such an agreement, because prior to the
independence of Guinea-Bissau, they were the major arms
supplier to the national liberation movement. I
South Vietnam: The flurry of sharp Communist at-
tacks that began late last week in the southern delta
provinces has spread to the northern delta and to sev-
eral areas around Saigon. Most of the ground attacks
have been conducted by local force units, supported by
shellings and sapper attacks against bridges and high-
ways. In one of the most severely threatened areas, ele-
ments of the Communist 5th Division have isolated several
district towns in a delta province bordering Cambodia,
but the government is taking steps to counter the incur-
sion. South Vietnamese territorial forces have performed
well, leaving their regular units available for commit-
ment at a later date.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1974
USSR: The Soviets are preparing for an extended-
range missile test in the Pacific. Moscow announced
yesterday that sea and air traffic should stay clear of
two areas north of Midway Island through December 30.
Soviet ICBMs fired from the Plesetsk and Tyuratam test
centers normally land on Kamchatka, 3,100 or 3,400
nautical miles away. By launching to the Pacific, the
Soviets extend the range to over 4,000 nautical miles.
The SS-X-16 is considered to be the
best candidate for the extended-range tests.I
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1974
OPEC: The oil ministers of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries convene today in Vienna.
The session--expected to last at least two days--prob-
ably will concentrate on pricing policy. It could for-
malize increases of about 50 cents a barrel adopted at
a recent meeting in Abu Dhabi of Persian Gulf producers.
An effort will probably be made to link the price of oil
to inflation in general or to the prices of selected com-
modities. The members have made no decision on Algeria's
proposal for a meeting of OPEC foreign and oil ministers
in Algiers on January 8 to draft an agenda for a later
conference of OPEC chiefs of state.
Norway: Prime Minister Bratteli's minority Labor
government faces a major hurdle tomorrow when its pro-
posal to purchase the controlling interest in a Canadian-
owned aluminum firm comes to a vote. Bratteli is caught
in a cross-fire between the leftist Socialist Electoral
Alliance, which wants the government to nationalize the
aluminum plant, and the nonsocialist parties, which want
the government to hold out for more favorable terms. The
controversy is the latest of a number of frustrations
that have recently beset Bratteli,who has been miffed by
the continuing attacks on Labor's legislative program.
He has said that he is prepared to resign. rather than
allow his legislative program to be blocked by attacks
from the left and the right.
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