NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010020-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: November 29, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
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State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
CONTENTS
ETHIOPIA: Situation report. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Recent reports support COSVN instructions
which called for intensified fighting. (Page 3)
EC: Foreign ministers fail to reach agreement on issues
to be discussed at the summit next month. (Page 4)
FRANCE: Mediterranean fleet to be enlarged when Suez
Canal reopens. (Page 8)
NORTH VIETNAM - FRANCE: North Vietnamese delegation
in Paris to discuss French aid. (Page 9)
CAMBODIA-UN: Sihanouk's allies still could attempt to
upset Phnom Penh's victory at the UN. (Page 10)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974
The ruling military council yesterday elected Gen-
eral Teferi Benti as its new chairman. Teferi, who was
the commander of the Second Division in Eritrea Province,
will act only as a figurehead. He became Second Division
commander in October and does not have a broad base of
support within the division or within the armed forces as
a whole. He also lacks the public prestige and popularity
of General Aman, the former head of government, and he is
expected to approve automatically the council's decisions.
The 52-year-old Teferi had previously served as head of the
Harar Military Academy and was once military attache` in
Washington. He has attended several military training
courses in the US.
Major Mengistu Hailemariam, the council's first vice
chairman, will continue to exercise influence behind the
scenes, but he is not believed to have firm control of
the council, and his current leadership position is not
accepted by the entire military.
There is increasing evidence that the authority of
the ruling council and the unity of the armed forces
will be severely tested as a result of the killing of
General Aman and the mass executions last weekend. Op-
position to the council because of its authoritarian
rule is widespread, but its opponents are dispersed
throughout the military and seem to lack leadership, or-
ganization, and a clear sense of purpose.
The council is proceeding with plans to send rein-
forcements to fight the Eritrean Liberation Front, and
some units reportedly have already arrived in the prov-
ince. The insurgents have refrained from large-scale
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
attacks for several months, but they have been able to
gain control of large parts of the countryside as a re-
sult of government troop inactivity. They have wanted
to see how Ethiopia's revolution developed before taking
any major new initiatives, and insurgent leaders may be-
lieve the situation is still too uncertain to allow the
formulation of new plans. Local military commanders who
are not firmly controlled by the political leadership,
however, could decide to act before the army increases
its own operations.
An Ethiopian Foreign Ministry official denied to
the US embassy on Wednesday that the military council
was planning to execute former emperor Haile Selassie.
The official said that foreign press reports alleging
that Haile Selassie had been moved to a town near Addis
Ababa in preparation for his execution were "without
foundation." The council also announced yesterday that
there would be no more summary executions. The council
held open the possibility that some of the former offi-
cials still under detention will be executed after
trials
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
During the past two weeks, a number of reports from
a variety of sources have provided further elaboration
on Communist instructions and preparations for the
1974-75 dry season campaign. In general, these reflect
COSVN instructions reported earlier, which called for
a widespread and intense period of fighting to begin
in December and aimed primarily at disrupting Saigon's
pacification effort and inflicting heavy losses on gov-
ernment forces.
vary as to the
timing and intensity ot the expected increase in military
action. In some areas, military planning has been com-
pleted and the fighting could begin with little advance
notice On the other hand
large-scale attacks are no
even scheduled to begin until sometime after mid-January.
Between now and then his unit has been told to concentrate
on motivation training, proselytizing, and increased ter-
rorism and assassinations.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
The foreign ministers of the EC Nine, at their meet-
ing this week, failed to reach full agreement on the is-
sues that will be discussed at the EC summit planned for
early next month. The ministers will make a final effort
to reconcile their differences Monday and Tuesday. De-
spite uncertainty over regional policy--a "precondition"
for Italian and Irish participation--and probable failure
to come up with adequate policies to deal with Europe's
severe economic problems, it is nevertheless likely that
the summit will take place in Paris on December 9-10.
Although the Nine have been engaged in intense bar-
gaining in recent weeks to promote their particular na-
tional objectives, there has been little progress on
most, of the issues--energy, regional policy, and infla-
tion. Energy questions, in particular the French pro-
posal for an oil consumer-producer conference and pos-
sible French association, in some manner, with the work
of the International Energy Agency--favored by the other
eight--will be prime topics for discussion. Some ad-
vances apparently have been made in resolving the dif-
ferences on internal energy policies, but there is yet
no agreement to set guidelines to reduce energy consump-
tion. The Nine will also discuss the recent US proposals
for consumer cooperation.
EC financial assistance to the poorer regions of
the community--mainly Ireland and southern Italy--was
also discussed by the ministers on Monday. The Germans,
who would foot most of the bill, are demanding important
concessions from their partners as a price for agreement.
Italy and Ireland are threatening not to attend the sum-
mit unless "visible progress" toward an agreement is
shown in advance;; most observers, however, feel that
neither would stick to this threat.
Agreement appears to be close on a proposal to in-
crease the size of the EC's fund for unemployed workers
and it is likely that this matter will be settled at next
week's ministerial meeting. A common approach to the
problem of inflation, on the other hand, has not been
reached.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
EC institutional questions--among them proposals
for periodic Council meetings of the Nine heads of gov-
ernment, majority voting in the Council, and direct elec-
tions for the European parliament--also are on the summit
agenda. Paris initially wanted the summit devoted pri-
marily to these matters, but the other eight insisted sub-
stantive issues also be included. So far the only impor-
tant institutional issue on which a consensus has been
possible is for heads of government Council meetings,
perhaps as often as four times a year, with agreement on
the other proposals unlikely, due to UK and Danish opposi-
tion.
Most of the Nine are pessimistic that a summit meet-
ing--which has been hastily prepared--will bring in any
real progress on the basic questions facing the commu-
nity. Most members have only reluctantly agreed to at-
tend, mainly in order not to offend the French President.
The uncomfortable prospect they face is that another sum-
mit which accomplishes little--as was the case with the
two previous ones--would serve only to increase the al-
ready widespread disillusionment about progress toward
European unification.
Perhaps the major shadow over the summit is London's
demand for "renegotiating" its terms of membership, and
the prospect of British withdrawal if such terms cannot
be sold to the British public. Prime Minister Wilson is
concerned that the EC agree to seek a formula to permit
reduction of individual national contributions to the EC
budget by member states--like the UK--whose per-capita
GNP falls significantly below the community average.
Should the foreign ministers fail to reach agreement on
how to approach the budget problem at their meeting next
week, Wilson is expected to make this a principal issue
at the summit, with the final outcome uncertain.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974
FRANCE
The French navy has plans to increase the size of
its Mediterranean squadron in order to enhance its op-
erational capabilities when the Suez Canal reopens.
The French deputy chief of naval operations has
confirmed that the navy has asked for authority to make
major redeployments involving the Atlantic and Mediter-
ranean fleets. The deployments would move more major
combatants into the Mediterranean and would transfer
some antisubmarine forces into the Atlantic. Preliminary
plans call for movement of two aircraft carriers, a
.guided-missile cruiser, and two guided-missile frigates
from their base at Brest to Toulon in order to reinforce
the fleet of about 15 major combatants and 10 submarines
now in the Mediterranean. The Atlantic Fleet would re-
ceive five antisubmarine warfare ships from Toulon.
The navy is also studying its capability to support
.overseas deployments, including its Indian Ocean Fleet.
The reduction of foreign bases has prompted Paris to de-
velop a program to facilitate logistic support to ships
while they are under way, beginning with the addition of
a repair ship and the first of five tankers reportedly
scheduled for commissioning in 1976.
Fleet units permanently based in the Indian
Ocean consist of a command ship, three destroyer escorts,
a guided-missile! motor gunboat, four motor boats, and
eight landing craft. This force may already have been
augmented by the addition of a supply ship. A task force
consisting of the carrier Clemenceau, a guided-missile
destroyer, and two tankers are in the Indian Ocean on a
temporary basis.
This redeployment will strengthen the French naval
position in relation to that of the USSR, US, and UK in
the Mediterranean. In addition, it emphasizes a high
level of interest in Arab oil and parallels Paris' con-
cern about maintaining its oil route in the Indian Ocean,
because it will probably allow one carrier to be on sta-
tion in the eastern Mediterranean or Indian Ocean at all
times.
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Full implementation of the plan probably will not
occur until the opening of the Suez Canal to full traffic--
not expected before next spring.
NORTH VIETNAM - FRANCE
A North Vietnamese delegation headed by Hoang Trong
Dai is visiting Paris this week to discuss French aid for
next year.
The French are already providing assistance for a
variety of industrial development projects in North Viet-
nam. Under last year's agreement, French firms have ne-
gotiated a $10-million bicycle manufacturing installa-
tion, a $4- to 5-million shrimp trawler fleet, a textile
mill, and vegetable oil distilleries. Construction on
the bicycle, trawler, and textile projects will begin
shortly,
I
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 29, 1974
CAMBODIA-UN
Cambodian Prince Sihanouk?s allies still could at-
tempt a series of parliamentary maneuvers to upset the
major victory Phnom Penh's backers won at the UN Wednes-
day night. Phnom Penh, however, clearly has the advan-
tage and should be able to stave off any last-ditch ef-
fort by its opponents.
A vote will be held this morning on an amendment
to the successful pro-Phnom Penh resolution; pro-Sihanouk
forces may try, for example, to use the occasion to re-
open action on the resolution itself. Assembly President
Bouteflika also might choose to ignore the provision of
the successful resolution that defers the vote on changing
the delegation and attempt to force a vote on the pro-
Sihanouk resolution.
Even if Sihanouk"s backers forgo such maneuvers,
the Lon Nol government.will probably face a renewed--
though probably meaningless--challenge when the creden-
tials committee submits its report later in the Assembly
session.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
USSR-US: A. formation of US and CENTO naval ships
participating in. an annual exercise had to change course
twice to avoid colliding with a Soviet space vehicle re-
covery ship in the Arabian Sea on November 26. The So-
viet ship Sevan was first identified heading directly
for the allied formation at a distance of four miles.
The US and CENTO group ships changed course. The Sevan,
however, also altered its course, which required still
another course change by the formation. The Sevan
passed within 500 yards of one US ship, then turned and
began tailing the group. Incidents of this kind have
been rare since the US-USSR agreement in 1972 on pre-
venting incidents at sea.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 29, 1974
Mexico-Ch?i-le: Mexico's decision to break relations
with Mile was probably taken to curry favor in the Third
World by portraying Mexico as a political opposite of the
Chilean military junta. The two countries have been
sniping at each other ever since Allende's death last
year. President Echeverria was friendly with Allende and
has been decidedly cold toward the Pinochet government.
Chile is angry over Mexico's refusal to normalize rela-
tions and to deliver on a promised sale of fertilizer.
Mexico is upset at the junta's reluctance to allow cer-
tain Chilean citizens, including Allende's sister, to
take asylum in Mexico. It is unclear why Echeverria
waited until now to make the break, but he may have seen
little chance of obtaining any additional refugees.
South Vietnam. Plans for a massive Catholic demon-
stration in Saigon yesterday fizzled. Spokesmen for the
Catholic anticorruption movement had claimed that thou-
sands of demonstrators would protest the government's
scheduled court action against three opposition news-
papers. Only a few hundred protestors, however, assembled
at Catholic churches in Saigon's outskirts, and police
easily kept them from marching downtown. In the court-
room, meanwhile, the government postponed further pro-
ceedings against the newspapers until early next year.
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