CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010008-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 8
• Content Type: REPORT

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MMUGIMIND
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
Top Secret
13 September 1974
N2 639
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
CONTENTS
ETHIOPIA: Removal of Haile Selassie taken quietly.
(Page 1)
YUGOSLAVIA-USSR: Trial of Yugoslav Stalinists might
prove embarrassing to Moscow. (Page 3)
OMAN-UK: Oman orders fighter aircraft and SAM units
from the UK. (Page 7)
USSR-CYPRUS: Moscow seeks Cyprus role. (Page 8)
PORTUGAL: Second right-wing coalition formed.
(Page 9)
ARGENTINA: Workers challenge freeze on wages and
prices. (Page 11)
BRAZIL: Foreign minister makes pro-Arab speech.
Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 18)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ETHIOPIA
September 13, 1974
The Ethiopians have taken the removal of Emperor
Haile Selassie quietly. So far, the military's take-over
has triggered no disorders either in the major cities or
the countryside, once Haile Selassie's stronghold.
General Aman, Ethiopia's leading military figure,
has emerged as head of the provisional government; he is
now Prime Minister as well as minister of defense. Gen-
eral Aman is in his early fifties and is popular in the
military. He will probably retain the post of chief of
staff. He is believed to have been working with moderate
members of the Armed Forces Coordinating Committee.
US Charge Wyman was summoned to Aman's office late
yesterday to receive the general's personal assurance
that "the armed forces desire to maintain a strong and
friendly relationship with the US." Aman also said that
Haile Selassie is in good health and that the present
curfew is not expected to last very long.
The new military government says it will rule until
a popularly approved constitution comes into effect.
The military, however, gave no timetable for a return
to barracks. A new constitution is to be drafted, and
free speech, land reform, separation of church and state,
and a democratically elected civilian government are to
be written into it. A special military tribunal is to
be set up to try former and present government officials
charged with corruption and abuse of power. Its find-
ings cannot be appealed.
The committee was the moving force behind the Em-
peror's removal. It is made up of some 100 middle-grade
officers and enlisted men from all the armed forces and
the police. It has dominated the political scene in
Ethiopia for months.
The military is still pressing Haile Selassie to
yield money he is believed to have banked overseas. He
has thus far refused, saying that he has already given
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
the bulk of his fortune to his children and grandchildren.
If Haile Selassie continues to resist, the military may
bring him to trial. If he yields the money, they may
let him go into exile.
The committee has stated that Haile Selassie's
sickly son, 57-year-old Crown Prince Asfa Wossen, would
be a "figurehead" and would carry the title of "King,"
rather than emperor. The Crown Prince, who has been in
Europe since early 1973, has been slowly recovering from
a stroke that left him incapacitated. The Crown Prince
was unassertive even before he became ill, and he would
be easily manipulated by the committee.
Should the military be unable to get Asfa Wossen or
someone else to become monarch, they may switch to a re-
ubli
i
p
c w
th General Aman as Ethiopia's first president.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 13, 1974
YUGOSLAVIA-USSR
Tito confirmed in a speech yesterday that a small
group of pro-Soviet "cominformists" has been put on trial
for anti-party activity. His description of the plotters
as Stalinists supported from abroad will lead almost all
Yugoslavs to believe that Moscow has been meddling in
Yugoslav internal affairs.
Tito left no doubt that the results of the current
trials will be published, even at the risk of embarrass-
ing the Soviets. He demanded that the group be condemned
as an example to all who are tempted to engage in fac-
tionalism.
Tito's speech marks the first time in several years
that he has publicly stressed the threat of subversion
from the USSR. Indeed, he has worked with Brezhnev since
1971 to bury the legacy of suspicion and mistrust stem-
ming from the break with Stalin. Only last April, he
defended his rapprochement with Moscow by flatly reject-
ing rumors of any threat from the East.
Tito's outburst probably was based in part on
Edvard Kardelj's private report concerning his recent
trip to the USSR. Kardelj, who is one of Tito's closest
confidants, returned Tuesday from talks with Soviet lead-
ers, including Brezhnev. Kardelj's report--still held
under tight secrecy--probably played a key role in Tito's
decision to publicize the case against the Stalinists
and, by inference, against the Kremlin.
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Jaguar Fighter
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 13, 1974
OMAN-UK
Oman has ordered 12 Jaguar tactical fighter aircraft
and 28 Rapier surface-to-air missile units from the UK
at a cost of about $200 million. The Jaguar sale to
Oman is the first outside the Anglo-French consortium
that designed and financed development of the aircraft.
Jaguar deliveries will be spread out over two and
one half years. When completed, Oman's fighter inventory--
now only 16 old combat aircraft--will be upgraded signif-
icantly. No time frame was given for Rapier deliveries.
The acquisition of these weapon systems is intended
to bolster Oman's capabilities against South Yemen, Oman's
principal external threat and backer of the Dhofar insur-
rection.
the Omani need for the
sop isticate air efense system is highly debatable.
Omani Sultan Qabus' decision to make the purchase may
slow down the country's civil development plan. In
August, the Omani government produced a revised 1974
budget that projects a $26-million deficit, largely
because of increased defense spending--presumably
the Jaguars and the Rapier system. The original 1974
budget projected a surplus of nearly $61 million.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 13, 1974
USSR-CYPRUS
The USSR is continuing to try to establish a more
active role for itself in the Greek-Turkish imbroglio over
Cyprus.
A delegation headed by Deputy Foreign Minister
Ilichev arrived in Ankara on Wednesday; it is scheduled
to o on to Nicosia and Athens.
Moscow may, in fact, want to take soundings on
Turkish, Greek, and Cypriot attitudes toward discussion
of Cyprus at the UN General Assembly session opening
later this month.
In Athens, the Soviets are embarked on a broad
diplomatic effort to convince the Greeks that they have
nothing to fear from the USSR if they sever ties with
the West.
A Soviet Foreign Ministry official in Moscow has
urged the Greeks to make an official statement reaffirm-
ing the independence of Cyprus and rejecting any form
of annexation. The official's statement that this would
"influence and neutralize" Ankara suggests that Moscow
is seeking leverage to forestall Turkish partition of
the island.
Despite overtures to Athens and the
increasingly pro-Greek tenor of Soviet public comments
on the Cyprus situation, the Soviets are still refrain-
ing from criticism of the Turks. The Soviets are treat-
ing Ankara's negative position on their proposal for an
international conference on Cyprus with kid glovesF
8-
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
The Portuguese political stage, already jammed with
a plethora of political parties, will soon gain another
right-wing coalition.
The coalition will include five small rightist
parties and will be supported by 300 prominent conserva-
tives, including 20 retired flag-level military officers.
It will be led by General Deslandes, the former chief
of staff under the Caetano regime. One of the coali-
tion's principal organizers told the US embassy that
the formation of the coalition will be announced in a
week.
It is the second right-wing alliance to emerge in
a month. The sudden surge of organization activity on
the right probably is related to the need to establish
bona fide political parties before the electoral law is
promulgated in early November.
No real effort had been made by the right to organ-
ize earlier because opposition to the virtually mono-
lithic left during the provisional government's first
months was impossible. However, subsequent events have
influenced political sentiment in Portugal to such a
degree that the right now legitimately represents con-
servative attitudes. For example, the loss of Mozambique
and Guinea offended many Portuguese who had traditional
ties and interests in the overseas territories. Con-
servatives resent the hard and fast push by the left to
give independence to those two colonies and the conse-
quent diminution of the Portuguese empire.
The leftist Coordinating Committee of the Armed
Forces Movement has lost power while President Spinola
has registered a corresponding gain. In his speech two
days ago, Spinola pledged the use of all his constitu-
tional powers in defense of democratic processes in a
veiled attack on the legitimacy of the Armed Forces
Movement Committee. The right has tried to profit by
filling the partial vacuum created by such attacks on
leftist extremism.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
The new alliance will concentrate on winning the
rural north with its conservative farmers, but will meet
stiff competition from the other recently formed right-
wing coalition. Both alliances will be hampered in gain-
ing popular support by their lack of nationally known
leaders.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
The government freeze on wages and prices is being
strongly challenged by workers in a number of industries
and some business sectors. Strikes and work slowdowns
are spreading throughout Argentina as labor groups, many
of them left-wing, seek to enforce their demands for
wage increases. The resulting political and economic
fallout could cause a serious setback for President
Peron's government.
Strikes now involve automobile workers, printers,
newsmen, highway and railroad workers, teachers, state
employees, and sugar workers. Many unions are digging
in for a fight despite loss of their legal status, ex-
pulsion by parent national unions, and warnings from the
minister of labor.
The position of orthodox Peronist labor leaders,
who support the government's policies is being weakened
as rank-and-file workers succumb to the appeals of agi-
tators stressing bread-and-butter issues. It is doubt-
ful that they will be able to hold the line much longer
and still retain any authority.
Leftist union leaders plan to meet this weekend to
form an organization that could rival the huge Peronist-
dominated General Confederation of Labor. If they are
successful in attracting adherents, the Peronists could
find their labor base seriously undermined.
Although orthodox Peronist labor officials have ex-
pressed hope that peaceful solutions can be worked out,
there is growing talk of the need for stronger police
action to forestall further deterioration. Unless the
government gives in to their demands, wider conflict
seems unavoidable. A left-wing lawyer for the strife-
ridden automobile workers in Cordoba was assassinated
this week, and a threat by major car manufacturers to
shut down their plants is likely to incite further vio-
lence.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 13, 1974
Meanwhile, Chrysler of Argentina has informed the
economy minister that it intends to raise prices by 19
percent, which would probably be unacceptable to the
government. Chrysler insists that it is incurring huge
losses. Although negotiation remains possible, it is
more likely that Chrysler's decision will provoke addi-
tional restrictive government action against foreign
companies. If the government chooses to make an issue
of this, it will add to investors' mounting problems,
which already include continuing terrorism, low profits,
and growing nationalism.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 13, 1974
Foreign Minister Silveira's recent statement of
Brazil's new Middle East position is the clearest expres-
sion yet of a pro-Arab shift. During a dinner speech in
honor of the visiting Saudi Arabian foreign minister,
Silveira declared that a solution to problems in the
Middle East requires "a withdrawal from all territories
conquered by force and the recognition of the rights of
the Palestinians." Until recently, Brazil had taken what
it calls an "equidistant" line, remaining noncommittal on
the withdrawal question. Brazil now appears to be back-
ing off somewhat from its traditionally close ties with
Israel.
Silveira's remarks, which cap a period in which
Brazil opened diplomatic relations with several Middle
Eastern countries and sought to expand trade throughout
the area, underscore Brasilia's continuing preoccupation
with retaining access to crucial oil su lies.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 13, 1974
France - Western Euro e:
Paris is no longer offering a guaranteed price
on its Mirage Super F-1 fighter to the four European
countries seeking a replacement for their aging F-104
Starfighters. Paris' standing offer to sell the F-1 to
the consortium for a reported price of about $3.5 million
per plane was allowed to expire on July 31. The consor-
tium will now have to negotiate new unit costs with the
French manufacturers. Higher prices for the French plane
will further strengthen the likelihood that one of the US
competitors--the YF-16 or YF-17--will ultimately be se-
..
ct
UK: The trade deficit of $750 million in August
was $370 million smaller than the gap recorded in each
of the previous three months. Improvements appeared
across the board; exports hit a record level, while im-
ports of both oil and non-oil products declined. The
one-month improvement should hearten the Labor govern-
ment since the large payments deficit is likely to be an
i
ssue in the coming British elections.
India: Monsoon rainfall since late August has been
below normal throughout the country, causing added con-
cern for the major fall grain harvest. Unless the rains
pick up in the coming days, the US embassy plans to re-
duce its harvest estimate of 59-64 million tons by 2
million. Last year's harvest was 67 million tons while
the drought-reduced harvest in 1972 was 57 million tons.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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