CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026300080001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 21, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
March 21, 1974
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March , 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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NORTH VIETNAM: Infiltration to South up sharply in
recent weeks, but total still likely to fall below
that in most previous dry seasons. (Page 2)
JAPAN-USSR: Tanaka proposing early start for talks
on a World War II peace treaty. (Page 3)
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JAPAN: Japanese firms are altering investment pat-
terns in Southeast Asia as a result of hostile senti-
ment in the region. (Page 7)
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SPAIN: Government decides to play down its dispute
with bishop who called for Basque autonomy. (Page 10)
ARGENTINA: Peron is again planning trip to Madrid.
(Page 11)
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IRON ORE: Some producers to meet in Geneva to dis-
cuss prices. (Page 12)
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FOR THE RECORD: (Page 15)
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NORTH VIETNAM: Troop infiltration to South Viet-
nam has increased sharply in recent weeks, but the
total this dry season will probably still fall short
of most earlier years.
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Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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JAPAN-USSR: Prime Minister Tanaka is proposing
an early beginning for the scheduled Japanese-Soviet
negotiations on a World War II peace treaty. Accord-
ing to a Japanese Foreign Ministry official this mes-
sage was contained in a personal note from Tanaka
to Brezhnev delivered yesterday.
It had been expected that the on-again, off-again
treaty negotiations would begin no earlier than this
fall. If Tanaka has actually taken the initiative
to call for an earlier date, it is probably because
he feels a need to demonstrate some forward motion
on the foreign policy front to the Japanese public--
perhaps even an early visit to Tokyo by Chairman
Brezhnev himself--prior to this summer's elections
for the upper house of the Diet. The same impulse
is probably responsible for Tanaka's recent decision
to begin working-level discussions in Peking on an
aviation accord with the Chinese.
The one issue blocking the signing of a peace
treaty is the disposition of the "Northern Terri-
tories"--the small islands off Hokkaido occupied by
the Soviets in 1945--and on this issue Soviet state-
ments have not been encouraging to the Japanese. In
the past several weeks, Moscow has warned publicly
and privately that the Japanese Government must back
down from demands for return of the islands. Never-
theless, on March 12, Pravda raised the possibility
of some concession to the Japanese on fishing rights
in the disputed area. In doing so, Moscow may be
suggesting that another round of talks on the island
issue need not be entirely unproductive
hold
The Japanese, for their part,
they have a Soviet commitment to include the North-
ern Territories among those issues to be discussed
in any peace treaty negotiations.
The climate for Japanese-Soviet talks on politi-
cal issues has been improved by the initialing on
March 9 of a preliminary agreement for joint exploita-
tion of Siberia's Sough Yakutian coal basin.
Mar 21, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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JAPAN: Japanese firms in Southeast Asia have
begun to alter their investment patterns in an effort
to quiet growing anti-Japanese sentiment in the region,
recently expressed in hostile demonstrations against
Prime Minister Tanaka during his visits to Thailand
and Indonesia. The companies' actions are in line with
the new policy Tokyo is developing on regulating in-
vestments abroad.
Three major firms operating in the area have de-
cided to raise local ownership in their joint ventures
to at least 50 percent. One firm also will further
reduce its already minority position in some ventures,
and another may allow public stock purchase in local
ventures. Other major Japanese firms will probably
follow suit.
A bill now being drafted by the government con-
tains provisions for limiting the share of Japanese
ownership in overseas ventures, transferring ownership
to local interests in the future, promoting more local
hiring, and increasing reinvestment of profits.
Although the Japanese are moving to reduce their
high visibility in Southeast Asia, they will probably
continue to expand their economic presence in the
region. Japan already is the leading foreign investor
in Thailand and Indonesia, and is among the largest
investors in Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines.
Because of rising land and labor costs in Japan,
Southeast Asian countries will continue to be attrac-
tive to the Japanese as sites for manufacturing plants
that can take advantage of the region's low-paid labor
force. These ventures are geared to expanding local
sales and exporting to Japan as well as other countries.
Also, the area is becoming an increasingly important
source of raw materials for Japan. Indonesia, for
example, already supplies nearly one fifth of Japan's
oil requirements.
Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SPAIN: The government has decided to play down
for the time being its dispute with Bishop Anoveros
over his support for Basque autonomy and to concentrate
on working out changes in the concordat with the Vatican
that might help improve church-state relations.
The minister of information has given a mild re-
sponse to last week's statement from the Episcopate
on the prerogatives of the church under the concordat.
Noting that the recent tensions between church and
state had demonstrated that the existing system regu-
lating church-state relations is inadequate, he called
for renewed negotiations on the concordat. By not in-
sisting that Anoveros be exiled, the government has
avoided for now a confrontation with the Vatican.
Meanwhile, Anoveros has quietly departed for a
vacation in southern Spain. A few days earlier he had
returned to his bishopric in Bilbao after attending a
special meeting of the bishops' conference in Madrid.
It is not known how long Anoveros will remain on
vacation. If he does not return after a reasonable
time, his absence may cause more unrest in the Basque
area, where he has become a hero-martyr. Rumors per-
sist that he may be "kicked upstairs" to a post outside
the Basque region.
Although the government has backed off somewhat,
the outlook for church-state relations is not good.
Madrid is unlikely to agree to the Episcopate's wish
to speak out on temporal affairs, and negotiations to
revise the concordat will be difficult. Criticism of
the regime by any of the bishops could lead to another
confrontation.
The recent turn toward moderation is generally
credited to Franco, while earlier mishandling of the
case is attributed to Prime Minister Arias or some of
his ministers. There are reports of deep differences
in the cabinet over the issue. The necessity for
Franco to intervene in this dispute raises the question
of who will arbitrate differences in the government
when Franco is gone.
Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ARGENTINA: President Peron's chronic health
problems and need for rest may have prompted him to
renew plans to visit Madrid.
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I I Last week the Argentine press reported that
Peron was ill with a cold and had to curtail some of
his official activities.
Peron planned to go to Spain for minor surgery
and rest earlier this year, but was forced to cancel
the trip because of political problems with the Peronist
left. These troubles have increased recently with con-
tinuing terrorism, the crisis in Cordoba, and the
angry reaction of Peronist youth to the recent jailing
of one of their leaders. Although he must be reluctant
to leave the country at this time, the heavy pressures
seem to be forcin respite from a very
active schedule.
Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IRON ORE: An informal group of iron ore produc-
ing countries will meet next week in Geneva to discuss
the effects of the international economic situation
on ore prices. The group, which was formed several
years ago in an apparent attempt to influence world
iron ore trade and prices,, consists of Brazil, Chile,
Venezuela, Gabon, India, Liberia, and Peru.
Because these
countries account
for o
nly about
30 percent of world
iron ore exports,
ther
e is little
likelihood of their
being able to imp
ose e
ffective
controls over world
prices unless oth
er ma
jor exporters
such as Australia, Canada, the USSR,
and S
weden decide
to participate. The group may be trying to expand its
membership and will probably invite representatives
from other iron ore producing countries as observers.
Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Kuwait: The Council of Ministers has increased
the capital of the Kuwaiti Fund for Arab Economic De-
velopment from some $670 million to over $303 billion,
and has expanded fund recipients to include developing
countries as well as the poorer Arab states. The ac-
tion was taken following the recommendation at the
Islamic Summit Conference last month that Arab oil-
producing countries channel more aid to other Arab and
developing countries,, The fund is the oldest and most
active of the rapidly growing number of Arab aid funds
and has distributed more than $400 million for develop-
ment projects since its founding in 1961
Abu Dhabi Yugoslavia: A large Yugoslav'mil-'
itary sales team is scheduled to arrive in Abu Dhabi
later this month to demonstrate Yugoslav-made military
equipment, The Yugoslavs are interested in selling an
assortment of small arms to the Abu Dhabi Defense Force?
Sheikh Zayid, the ruler, reportedly has made $75 mil-
lion available for Yugoslav equipment. The two coun-
tries concluded their first arms deal, a small order
for anti-aircraft guns, in April 1973; the guns arrived
late last year accompanied by a ten-man Yugoslav mil-
itary advisory team,
Mar 21, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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