CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025300050001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 22, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C 204
22 September 1973
State Department review completed
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22 September 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
ITALY-LIBYA: Neither Rome nor Tripoli seeks to
enlarge attack on naval craft into major incident.
(Page 1)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Substantial
official: intervention helps dampen speculation.
(Page 3)
USSR-CHILE: Moscow suspends relations with Chile.
(Page 4 T_
AFGHANISTAN: Arrests of prominent military and
civilian leaders substantiate reports of antigov-
ernment plotting. (Page 5)
JAPAN-IRAQ: Tokyo negotiating for delivery of
large amounts of crude oil and liquefied petroleum
gas. (Page 8)
IRAQ: Government forces attack Kurdish villages.
Page 9)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 11)
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{ITALY-LIBYA: The attack by Libyan jet fighters
yesterday n an Italian naval escort craft is symp-
tomatic of Tripoli's jittery attitude, which has
produced several other coastal incidents, including
the unsuccessful attempt this spring to down a US
reconnaissance aircraft. Rome indicated that it
would take no retaliatory action in view of a hastily
proffered Libyan apology which said the attack was
a mistake.
According to Rome, the naval craft was accom-
panying several Italian fishing boats about 30 miles
from the Libyan coast. The escort had been dis-
patched following Libya's seizure of several Italian
fishing trawlers earlier in the week.
Neither country would have much to gain from
turning the attack into a major incident. Italy
has much at stake in Libya, with its oil develop-
ment program there just beginning to pay off in
rapidly expanding production. According to one
estimate, Libyan crude will account for about 30
percent of Italian state oil company production this
year. The new Italian government is anticipating a
politically explosive oil shortage this winter, and
its alternate sources could not make up for the loss
of the Libyan supply.
For their part, the Libyans are pushing the
Italians for technical assistance needed to operate
nationalized oil facilities. Although some oil
officials speculate that Italy has agreed to pro-
vide such aid, Rome is telling US officials that
no decision has been taken. Additionally, with re-
cent sales of armored personnel carriers, Italy
has joined the USSR and Czechoslovakia as a ma or
supplier of ground forces equipment to Libya
22 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Specula-
tion against the European joint float subsided and
the dollar staged a strong recovery in European
money markets yesterday. Official intervention
remained substantial, particularly by the Bank of
France which sold about $300-350 million worth of
the stronger European currencies. The Bundesbank
purchased only about $60-80 million in French francs,
but also provided some early support to the dollar.
Actions by both Paris and Brussels have helped
dampen European currency speculation. The Belgians
reintroduced charges on Belgian franc accounts held
by foreigners in an attempt to diminish the flow of
funds into the country. Paris, meanwhile, quietly
told banks not to lend French francs to foreign
borrowers in an effort to prevent speculation with
borrowed funds. The French franc remains at the
bottom of the float and is still vulnerable to
speculative pressures, as illustrated by a 3-percent
difference between the value of the commercial franc--
supported by the central banks--and the financial
franc, which floats freely.in the currency market.
22 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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USSR-CHILE: Moscow yesterday suspended diplo-
matic relations with Chile and ordered Santiago's
diplomats to return home. The move, ten days after
the military coup, may have been in response to the
junta's decision to ban all Marxist parties. Soviet
ships carrying badly needed wheat to Chile will now
be diverted. Moscow's East European allies probably
will follow suit on re tions and on their own grain
contracts with Chile. East Germany announced
break in, diplomatic re tions last night, and
Romanian President Ceausescu has already said
government would not recognize the junta.
22 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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AFGHANISTAN: The arrest of several prominent
civilian and military leaders appears to substantiate
reports that plotting against the new regime is under
way and that serious conflicts exist within the gov-
ernment.
Radio Kabul announced on Thursday that former
prime minister Maiwandwal, retired former air force
chief of staff Razaq, and retired governor of
Nangarhar Province Khan Mohammad had been arrested
for "antiregime activities." Reports reaching the
US Embassy reveal that a large number of additional
arrests of military and civilian personnel have been
made. The city, where unusual activity by military
units was noted on the evening of 20 September, is
now described as quiet.
The arrests of Maiwandwal,?Razaq, and Khan
Mohammad are particularly significant because
their relationship with President Daud.
The arrests may indicate, that these three
former top officials, and probably others, were en-
gaged in coup plotting. Kabul has recently been
alive with rumors of various groups preparing to
take action to overthrow the government. The ar-
rests could also, however, reflect the growing
estrangement between Daud and his opponents in the
Central Committee, with the latter now striking
directly at some of Daud's associates.
22 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Continued, perhaps increased, in-
sta i ity for Afghanistan is likely.
Radio Kabul has tied Pakistan to the "anti-
regime activities" and has warned Islamabad to cease
interfering in Afghan internal matters. This comes
at a time when members of the Afghan Government,
in conversations with Western diplomats, have in-
dicated that Kabul may henceforth take a tougher
line toward Pakistan over the long-simmering Push-
22 Sep 73
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JAPAN-IRAQ: The Japanese are negotiating with
Iraq a large contract providing for the delivery of
200,000 barrels per day of crude oil for ten years,
beginning in 1976, plus 275 million cubic feet per
day of liquefied petroleum gas over a 15-year period.
In return, Japan is prepared to offer Iraq a $500-
million Export-Import Bank loan.
During the past year the Japanese have been ag-
gressively lining up long-term supplies of crude oil
and already have concluded direct purchase contracts
with Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Since the
settlement last February of Iraq's nationalization
dispute with the international Iraq Petroleum Company,
the Japanese, with Baghdad's urging, have been making
a concerted effort to expand their ties with Iraq and
ensure their future access to crude oil. In recent
months they have gained a part interest in an oil
concession and have signed other long-term contracts
for delivery of Iraqi propane and butane gas. If
this latest oil contract is concluded, Japan's share
of Iraq's projectqd rude oil output would reach 10
percent by 1976.
22 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IRAQ: Government forces recently launched.new
attacks on Kurdish villages in northern Iraq. The
assaults follow a period of sporadic clashes over a
wide area.
I Iraqi forces using
tanks and artillery destroyed several Kurdish villages
in the Sinjar area last week, forcing their inhabit-
ants to flee into the mountains to the north.
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risons if government attacks continue. Kurdish lead-
ers have also sent strong protests to President Bakr
and to the ruling Baath Party.
The Kurds charge that the government is trying
to reduce the area under Kurdish control before the
deadline next March for granting them autonomy; the
deadline was established by an agreement concluded
In the absence of an agreement, localized inci-
dents and limited fighting probably will continue in-
termittently, but major hostilities will be virtually
impossible at this time of year, because of limita-
tions imposed by the weather. If the government
reneges on commitments to grant substantial autonomy
to Iraq's 2 million Kurds by next spring, heavy fight-
ing might ensue.
22 Sep 73
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Sudan: The trial of Black September terrorists
charged with the murders of Ambassador Noel and two
other diplomats in Khartoum last March may be fur-
ther delayed, perhaps until next year. A postpone-
ment of the pre-trial inquiry--scheduled to begin
25 September--will probably be necessary. Over
half of the 22 Sudanese lawyers appointed to defend
the terrorists were imprisoned during antigovernment
disturbances earlier this month.
Sweden: The official results of the election
on 16 September confirm that the socialist and non-
socialist blocs tied, with each receiving 175 seats
in the new parliament. Prime Minister Palme has
been conferring with Social Democratic Party leaders,
who have apparently decided against a coalition gov-
ernment with one of the parties in the political
center. The president of the powerful confederation
of trade unions has urged instead that the Social
Democrats seek new elections next year after develop-
ing a major labor issue.
*These items were prepared by CIA without eonsuZta-
tion with the Departments of State and Defense.
22 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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