CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025300030001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 20, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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Top Secret
C
20 September 1973
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20 September 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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CHILE: An
ti
government forces
are
organi
zing in
ex le, and may be regrouping within the country as
well. (Pa
ge
1)
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JORDAN: A
st~ng re
Kuwait. (
mn
l
P
esty decision desi
ations with Syria
age 3)
gne
and
d to he
subsidi
lp in re-
es from
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: French franc
under heavy pressure. (Page 6)
WEST GERMANY - USSR: Negotiations probably will
begin next month on exchanging military attaches.
(Page 7)
ICELAND: Foreign Minister wants to begin talks
wit-' h US next month on future of Icelandic Defense
Force. (Page 8)
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C CHILE: The calm that prevails in most areas
of the country may prove to be short-lived. Sup-
porters of the ousted Popular Unity (UP) government
are organizing in exile and may be regrouping in-
side the country as well.
The military has been surprised by the amounts
of weapons uncovered and is convinced that much more
materiel is still in the hands of leftist extremists.
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As of now, however, most visible antigovernment
activity is taking place outside Chile. A "patriotic
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None of these plans appears to be firm, and
international support for an armed insurgency prob-
ably will depend on the number of Chileans who show
a willingness and ability to confront the regime.
20 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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JORDAN: King Husayn is taking a calculated
risk that his decision to amnesty exiled and impris-
oned fedayeen will ease the way for Syrian President
Asad to resume diplomatic relations with Amman and
for Kuwait to restore its subsidy payments.
Husayn presumably believes he can handle the
unhappiness the amnesty is likely to engender in
his army. The King will have to convince his offi-
cers that he did not agree at the Cairo summit to
allow the fedayeen to re-establish bases in Jordan
and did not make any other concessions opposed by
the army. The release inside Jordan of several
hundred fedayeen will complicate the task of the
Jordanian security services, but many of those
amnestied may either leave the country or abandon
the commando movement.
Whether the King's gesture will make it possible
for President Asad to resume relations is uncertain.
Asad would clearly like to do so, and he may be
moving to muzzle potential sources of opposition
among the fedayeen in Syria. The Syrians closed
down a Fatah radio station earlier this week after
it criticized the Cairo summit,
The amnesty seems unlikely to be enough to
persuade the Kuwait Government to resume its sub-
sidy payments to Jordan. The Kuwaitis appear to
have hardened their conditions in the wake of the
Cairo summit. Earlier this week a government spokes-
man said Kuwait could not restore the payments un-
less the Palestine Liberation Organization endorsed
the step.
(continued)
20 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Fedayeen spokesmen have denounced the amnesty,
maintaining that they would not be "taken in" by an
action that they correctly conclude does nothing to
change Husayn's.basically hard-line policy toward
the fedayeen. The release of the imprisoned guer-
rillas will not significantly augment fedayeen capa-
bilities to strike at Israel or to mount interna-
tional terrorist operations.
20 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Interna-
tional money markets remained unsettled yesterday
and the French franc came under heavy pressure.
French central
C17-
jamountea oun e to a o i ion,
far less, however, than quoted in some press reports.
Total intervention by other EC central banks, mainly
the Bundesbank, in the form of French franc pur-
chases reportedly was on the order of $100-$150
million.
International traders unloaded the French cur-
rency as rumors spread of a new European currency
realignment incorporating a French devaluation.
These rumors generally are still feeding on the un-
certainty created last weekend by the Dutch guilder
revaluation, the announcement of the first monthly
French trade deficit in over a year, and general
uneasiness over French inflationary problems.
The dollar gained back some of the ground lost
earlier in the week. An announcement that the US
basic balance-of-payments deficit for the second
quarter was the smallest since 1970 helped the re-
covery.
The outlook for a return to market stability
is clouded; at a minimum continued European central
bank intervention probably will be required. For-
eign exchange dealers believe that the Belgians
will feel constrained to revalue--a large portion
of Belgian trade is with the Germans and Dutch,
both of whom have revalued in recent months. A
Belgian revaluation, in turn, conceivably could
ease pressures on Paris to devalue or, alternatively,
could add to pressures for a mark revaluation.
20 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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WEST GERMANY - USSR: Bonn and Moscow will
probably begin negotiations early next month on ex-
changing military attaches. Agreement has already
been reached on some details, and Bonn expects the
attaches to be at their respective posts by about
the first of the year.
Chancellor Brandt's Ostpolitik adviser, Egon
Bahr, broached the subject in talks with Foreign
Minister Gromyko last October. Progress has been
slow; the two countries informally agreed in June
that the respective staffs should be limited to 12
persons, six of whom would be military officers with
diplomatic status.
Bonn and Moscow resumed diplomatic relations
in 1955, but the question of assigning military at-
taches was deferred, largely because both sides rec-
ognized it was inextricably involved with the thorny
problem of Four-Power rights "in Germany as a whole."
The general improvement in Soviet relations with
Western Europe and with West Germany in particular,
however, has paved the way for action on the attache
question.
One specific Western concern has been that the
exchange of attaches might affect the status of the
US, UK, and French military liaison missions ac-
credited to the Group of Soviet Forces in East Ger-
many. Some of this concern was relieved this sum-
mer, however, when the Soviets revised the passes
used by the Western missions, suggesting that they
do not intend to abrogate the missions unilaterally.
Bonn officials, meanwhile, have assured Western
diplomats that the Soviet attaches will be re-
stricted to dealing with the Bundeswehr, thus pre-
serving the need for Soviet liaison missions to
deal with the Western forces.
20 Sep 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ICELAND: Foreign Minister Agustsson has re-
minded the US ambassador that he wishes to visit
Washington early next month to begin formal negotia-
tions on the future of the US-manned Icelandic De-
fense Force (IDF). NATO Secretary General Luns,
who visited Iceland on 16-18 September to argue the
IDF cause, found the atmosphere so disturbing that
he fears the IDF may be a casualty of the cod war
with Britain.
Agustsson said he needs some device for saving
the IDF without bringing down Iceland's coalition
government or splitting his Progressive Party, which
leads it. He claimed to need some indication that
the US is willing to reduce substantially its mili-
tary forces in Iceland and to substitute Icelanders
for some of them over a specific period of time.
Agustsson has not been effective in the past
on the IDF's behalf, and he faces mounting problems
in negotiating an arrangement that would satisfy
both the US and his colleagues. Four of the seven
Icelandic cabinet ministers probably prefer retain-
ing the IDF in some form, but they have lost the
initiative to the minority who have been able po-
litically to link the IDF issue to the cod war. IDF
opponents argue that NATO did not defend Iceland
against the aggression the British committed by
stationing frigates in waters claimed by Iceland,
a line that strikes a responsive public chord.
Luns found all the Icelandic ministers with
whom he spoke except Agustsson bitter and abrasive,
particularly Communist minister Kjartansson who told
him the question was not whether the IDF should
leave, but when. Agustsson, who Luns said meekly
tried to play a moderating role, in turn found Luns'
mission "worthless."
(continued)
20 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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