CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024400020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 4, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N? 040
4 May 1973
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No. 0107/73
4 May 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES - US: Europeans will find it
difficult to agree on :response to US call for new
Atlantic Charter. (Page 1)
LAOS: No headway in initial talks; Communists may
still link progress to developments in Vietnam and
Cambodia. (Page 2)
NORTH VIETNAM: Enthusiasm for economic aid to Hanoi
wanes in West. (Page :3)
CHILE: Strikes and political dissension again in-
crease dissatisfaction among military. (Page 4)
LEBANON: Other Arabs attempting to mediate the
crisis between the government and the fedayeen.
(Page 5)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Agreement on farm prices
reached after bitter debate. (Page 7)
THE NETHERLANDS: New government finally patched t
gether. (Page 7)
BRAZIL-PARAGUAY: Building world's largest hydroelec-
tric power plant. (Page 9)
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EC-US: Western Europe will have trouble coming
up wither common response to the US call for a new
Atlantic Charter before the President's visit. The
European countries have managed to establish joint
policies and effective institutions on few matters
other than trade; they still lack an identity of
view with regard to Europe's future relationship to
the US.
France, in particular, fears that a trans-Atlantic
dialogue risks US meddling in European decision-
making processes and the dilution of European unity.
Paris opposes an early EC debate on the Atlantic
Charter suggestion, in part because it would inhibit
Pompidou in speaking freely about the question when
he meets with President Nixon.
Few Europeans deny that political, military,
and economic issues are interrelated. They worry,
however, that the commitment to Europe's defense
renewed in Dr. Kissinger's address may mask demands
for concessions in economic areas. Even the Germans
share British reservations about burdening negotia-
tions in one area with problems belonging to another.
Europeans are also puzzled by:
--how the new approach will affect existing insti-
tutions that are already exploring one or another
of the problems cited in Dr. Kissinger's address;
--how specific a new Atlantic Charter ought to be;
and
--how the US proposed to bring in Japan.
4 May 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAOS: In their initial negotiating sessions,
ranking Pathet Lao and government representatives
have made no headway toward the implementation of
the Lao peace agreement.
Senior Lao Communist envoy Phoumi Vongvichit,
who last week returned from lengthy consultations
in Sam Neua, reportedly again presented several
demands which had stalled earlier talks. The delay
in reaching agreement may be a result of North
Vietnam's ideas as to the proper timing. Based on
his discussions with Phoumi, Souvanna`s trusted
negotiator Pheng Phongsavan has the impression
that Hanoi is still linking movement in the nego-
tiations to progress on the resolution of cease-
fire problems in Vietnam and on movement toward
a solution in Cambodia.
Souvanna and Pheng Phongsavan have now taken
personal charge of the negotiations and if the
green light is received from Hanoi, agreement could
be reached quickly. Talks leading to the February
Laos agreement a eared similarly stalled until
Souvanna in t
discussions with the Communists
worked out an agreement which he presented as a
fait accompli to his cabinet. In typical fashion,
the Prime Minister seems prepared once again to
reach a compromise settlement with little regard
for the views of the right wing of his government.
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NORTH VIETNAM: The enthusiasm displayed by
a number of Western countries and Japan only a few
months ago for postwar aid to North Vietnam has all
but evaporated. Hanoi has actually received only
small amounts of aid, and most of that has been for
humanitarian purposes.
The Japanese, who were among the most eager to
improve economic and political ties with Hanoi, ex-
emplify this more cautious approach. They have sent
a mission to Hanoi recently which agreed only to
working level talks on establishing diplomatic re-
lations. Tokyo has a sizable economic involvement
in South Vietnam that it does not intend to jeop-
ardize by making unnecessary political concessions
to the North.
Like most of the European Community countries,
Tokyo is waiting until Hanoi and Washington have
made some decisions on aid, and the prospect for
peace seems more solid. To date, Sweden is the
only non-Communist country committed to substantial
economic aid to the North--$100 million, of which
$45 million is for a paper plant.
Aid from Communist countries thus far remains
the major foreign contribution to North Vietnam's
economy. Routine trade agreements have been con-
cluded and there is every indication that North
Vietnam's requests are being met by both Peking
and Moscow.
Although it presumably would like to diversify
its aid in order to lessen this dependence, Hanoi
apparently has a lot to learn about aid negotiations
in the non-Communist world. The North Vietnamese
have tended to present potential donors with sweeping
proposals, often without the needed back-up informa-
tion, despite their eagerness for such aid. North
Vietnam also insists that it must control all aid
projects. Moreover, if the Japanese experience is
any guide, the North Vietnamese reconstruction effort
has been severel hampered b bureaucratic delays
and inertia.
4 May 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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CHILE: A new wave of strikes may give Allende
more trouble than the continuing political party
warfare and persistent disorders in the streets.
The most serious strike is at the huge El
Teniente copper complex. Now completing its
second week, it has already cost Chile millions
of dollars in critically needed foreign exchange,
and negotiations are stalled. Other strikes are
being planned by transportation, petroleum, and
government workers.
The Christian Democrats are taking an in-
creasingly stiff stance toward the government;
they boycotted the officially backed trade union
confederation's May Day celebration. They are
now focusing on the labor situation and probably
will encourage future strikes.
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C LEBANON: Other Arabs are attempting to mediate
the crises i tween government forces and the feda-
yeen. Fighting intensified late yesterday when Leba-
nese aircraft were called into action near Beirut,
and the Lebanese Army engaged Palestinian elements
in southeastern Lebanon. for the first time. The
government claims that 1,000 Palestinian troops
moved into Lebanon from Syria yesterday, a develop-
ment that generated a call for US assistance from
Lebanese officials.
Most clashes had diminished by midnight, Leba-
nese time, but the threat of heavy fighting remains,
particularly in the southeast where Lebanese forces
are spread thin. Fatah. leader Yasir Arafat has
called for a cease-fire, but his appeals have been
ignored by more aggressive fedayeen units. Arafat,
probably fearing his own position would be endangered
in an all-out showdown with the government, is ap-
parently searching for a negotiated settlement.
Even if he were successful, some fedayeen might well
continue to fight. The killing of two fedayeen mil-
itary leaders yesterday may strengthen their resolve
to do so. The government too is maintaining a hard
stand, and yesterday President Franjiyah stated that
Lebanon would not tolerate any Palestinian army of
occupation.
Possible Syrian involvement is particularly
worrisome for Beirut.
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(
Pal-
estinian broadcasts from Damascus yesterday became
--
more strident.
F
I
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Cairo is probabl
in Lebanon, whic
y anxious to end the confrontation
h distracts from its own efforts to
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'draw attention to the need for a general Arab-Is-
raeli settlement. Other Arab mediators, the secre-
tary-general of the Arab League, Mahmud Riad, and
a representative of Iraqi President Bakr, are due
in Beirut today to help resolve the crisis.
The uncertain situation has generated a flurry
of political maneuvering in Lebanon; yesterday, the
newly appointed prime minister, Amin Hafiz, announced
his intention to resign. He apparently is still
considering the move, but if he were to step down,
President Franjiyah would be faced with the addi-
tional difficult task of finding a successor. Fran-
jiyah is reportedly contemplating the formati
a military government to replace Hafiz.
on of_
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The EC Council has
reached an agreement on farm prices for the coming
year, but only after one of the most difficult,
confused, and bitter meetings in EC experience.
The fact that an agreement was reached at all is
apparently due largely to fear that a deadlock
would paralyze not only the common agricultural
policy, but other EC activities as well. The very
modest increase in most grain support prices will
improve the prospects for US exports of grain. No
agreement was reached on a number of other key
issues, however, which probably helped strengthen
sentiment within the EC for a thorough review of
the community's common agricultural policy.
THE NETHERLANDS: The center-left government
that Dutch politicians finally have patched together
after a five-month hiatus probably will not last
long and is unlikely to initiate any major changes.
Barring last-minute hitches, the new government will
be installed next week. The cabinet will have the
full support of the Labor Party, with its own leader
Den Uyl as prime minister, but the arrangement will
test the cooperation of the religious parties. The
unsteadiness of the government will prevent the
leftist parties from getting very far with their
proposals for cutting defense expenditures and
bringing on social reforms.
4 May 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Brazil-Paraguay Hydroelectric Power Plant Agreement
BUENOS*,
AIRES
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BRAZIL-PARAGUAY: Brasilia and Asuncion have
agreed to build the world's largest hydroelectric
power plant, despite objections from Argentina.
Buenos Aires fears that the Itaipu complex, as
currently planned, could jeopardize the dams it
plans to build on the lower Parana River. The
controversy has reduced relations between Brazil
and Argentina to the lowest point in some years.
As part of the plant agreement, Brazil has offered
Paraguay improved outlets for its exports, and
Brazil will purchase nearly all of Paraguay's half
of Itaipu's power. This would probably make Para-
guay the world's largest exporter of electric
energy.
4 May 73
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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