CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024200110001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 18, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N_? 4 0
18 April 1973
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No. 0093/73
18 April 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
C?NTENTS
USSR: P7.oscow signals satisfaction with improving
US relations. (Page 1)
SOUTH ASIA: Pakistan will have problems with new
POti~1 proposal. (Page 2)
LIBYA: Qadhafi calls for "new revolution." (Page 4)
THAILAND-CHINA: Bangkok moves to improve ties with
China. (Page 5)
USSR: Status of Soviet grain purchases. (Page 6)
NORWAY-EC: Industrial free trade agreement ini-
tialed. (Page 7)
CARIBBEAN: British Commonwealth states aim to build
common market. (Page 9)
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USSR: Moscow is publicly sgnal~,ng its satis-
faction with the over-all progress of US-Sov~,et re-
lations.
Ln recent weeks, Soviet media have been stress-
ing improved ties with the United States and holding
out to the ordinary citizen the prospect of a new
era of bilateral cooperation. Observers in Moscow
have been struck by the extent o~ the campaign to
publicize the fruits of detente.
The most popular theme is the outlook for im-
proved economic relations, but there has also been
an upswing in coverage of cultural and human-inter-
est topics. The press has been especially diligent
in reporting presidential statements praising better
US-Soviet relations. Conversely, differences between
the two nations frequently receive low-key treatment
and are sometimes dismissed as being of-only trans-
itory concern.
These changes mirror increased Soviet confidence
in US intentions to honor the summit understandings.
Visits by high-level delegations, the conclusion of
commercial agreements, and progress in other areas
of bilateral endeavor are newsworthy events in them-
selves. Moreover, they are a source of satisfaction
to those .Soviet leaders who, having a stake in de-
tente, are anxious to advertise successes. The end
of the war in Vietnam has also helped. Finally.,
Moscow is probably beginning the public buildup for
Brezhnev's visit to the US, casting the circumstances
of his trip in the best possible light.
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SOUTH ASIA: Pakistan probably will have great
difficu ty in accepting India's and Bangladesh's
new repatriation proposal.
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Kamal Hossain's
four-day visit to New Delhi concluded yesterday
with a joint communique proposing the repatriation
of 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war held in India
simultaneously with an exchange between Pakistan
and Bangladesh of Bengalis detained in Pakistan
and Bharis in Bangladesh. The communique reaf-
firms Dacca's intention to hold some. war crimes
trials. After his departure from New Delhi, Hos-
sain reportedly told the press that .work on the
trial of POWs is in an advanced stage and that 195
prisoners would be tried. International observers
will be invited to the trials.
The Bengalis dropped their demand for recogni-
tion as a condition for the exchange, although the
communique makes it clear that they will~not ne-
gotiate directly with Pakistan before recognition
is granted. Either the International Red Cross
or the Swiss could, however, act as intermediaries
as they have done in the past,
Two aspects of the proposal are likely to make
it unacceptable to Pakistan;
--The communique appears to propose that Pak-
istan accept approximately 250,000 largely
destitute Biharis (non-Bengali Muslims) who
would like to live in Pakistan but who are
unwanted there.
--Confirmation that Dacca will hold war crimes
trials will rouse Pakistani indignation and
probably hurt the chances for early recogni-
tion of Bangladesh.
Several days ago a Pakistani Government official
said that if Bangladesh proceeded with war crimes
18 Apr 73
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trials, Islamabad would retaliate by trying on
charges of treason some of the Bengali military of-
ficers and civil servants awaiting permission to
go to Bangladesh.
Although this latest initiative does not break
the impasse on the subcontinent, it highlights New
Delhi's growing impatience to find a formula that
will allow the return of the prisoners of war.
Prime Minister Gandhi. is concerned over mounting
foreign and domestic criticism that India is holding
the. prisoners illegally. The decoupling of pris-
oner repatriation from Pakistani recognition of
Bang"ladesh also opens u new avenues in the search
for a settlement.
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LIBYA,: President Qadhafi's call for a "new
revolutio appears to be primarily aimed at com-
bating domestic opposition to the proposed union
with Egypt,
In two rambling speeches this week that were
vintage Qadhafi, the Libyan leader made it clear
that he was fed up with the lack of enthusiasm for
his policies and that from now on the Libyan people
must shoulder responsibility for protecting the
country against internal and external threats. In
unrestrained language, Qadhafi called for a "cul-
tural battle" to rid the nation of imported ideo-
logies and to restore a purified Islamic law. He
proclaimed that all those who support the revolution
will be armed and organized into committees to down
the "arrogant and educated classes." As is his wont
under stress, Qadhafi threatened to resign if his
program is not carried out..
Qadhafi's outburst is yet another sign of his
frustration with the deepening controversy in Libya
about the proposed union. Members of the ruling
Revolutionary Command Council have been advising
against the merger, and some military officers have
been arrested, presumably for plotting to block it.
Qadhafi judiciously avoided the union issue in his
speeches, but they added up to a-sharp warning that
he intends to get tough.
Although the speeches were directed at domestic
concerns, Qadhafi could not pass up the opportunity
to warn other Arab governments against seeking re-
gional settlements with Israel. He did state, how-
ever, that there were no personal differences between
him and Presidents Sadat and Asad and that he be-
lieved in their patriotism. Qadhafi's bow to his
confederation partners probably was a bit of fence-
mending as well as an effort to underscore his com-
mitment to both t ederation and union with
Egypt.
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THAILAND-CHINA: Bangkok has reached a decision
on some concrete steps to improve relations with
China. the Thai
cabinet decided last week to re uce ailand's offi-
cial representation in Taipei to the charge level
when the present ambassador's term expires at the
end of this year. To facilitate contact with Peking,
the cabinet decided to establish a trade and cul-
tural mission in either Hong Kong or Macao. An al-
ternative would be to work through the Chinese rep-
resentative to the ECAFE Secretariat in Bangkok, if
Peking decides to set up an office there.
With the cease-fires in Indochina and Bangkok's
willingness to downgrade its relationship with Tai-
wan, Peking sees few obstacles to improved relations
with Bangkok. But the Chinese seem to be thinking
of an accommodation largely on their own. terms. At
this stage, there is no evidence that Peking be-
lieves it must reduce its continuing support to Thai
insurgents in exchange for diplomatic ties with Bang-
kok. The Thai Government's recent conciliatory
steps are unlikely to soften Peking's attitude on
this matter.
18 Apr 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR: The Soviets so far this year have bought,
or are rumored to have contracted for, nearly 8 mil-
lion tons of grain worth some $600 million. By this
time last year, they had purchased 3.5 million tons
of the total of 28 million tons ($1.7 b~,~lion~ which
they bought in 1972.
Known contracts are with:
--Canada for 1.5 million tons of wheat and
500,000 tons of barley,
--France for 300,000 tons of feed barley,
--Australia for 100,000 tons of grain
--Hungary or Romania for 100,000
The rumored contracts are with:
--The US for 5 million tons of corn,
--Argentina for 100,000 tons
sorghum,
All of the known new purchases are for delivery
by October 1973, implying that the Soviets have not
yet received adequate imports to tide them over to
their next harvest. Almost all of the contracts
are for feed grain, reflecting the continuing need
of the Soviet livestock program as well as a desire
to take advantage of the relativel lower world
prices for feed grains.
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NORWAY-EG: The EC and Norway have initialed
a.n in ustrial free trade agreement sim%lax to those
already concluded with 'the other European Free Trade
Association members who have not joined the EC. It
will become effective on 1 July following ratifica-
tion.
The breakthrough in the six-month-long negotia-
tions came following a compromise on EC imports of
Norwegian aluminum and fish. The Community's ini-
tial offer of a 190,000-ton ceiling on imports of
unwxought aluminum under prefezential tariffs in
1973 is to be supplemented by 80,000 tons intended
for re-export after processing. The supplement will
increase to 120,000 tons next year and the ceiling
will be raised yearly until it is eliminated in 1982.
The Community also agreed to lower tariffs on various
fish products.
While some members of the Storting have reser-
vations about specific terms in the agreement, the
government expects no major difficulty in obtaining
parliamentary approval, primarily because of the con-
cessions on fish products.
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Caribbean Community
BARBADOS to-tial member, 1 August 1973
DOMINICA Member joining by 1 May 1974
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CARIBBEAN: Leaders of ten British Commonwealth
Carib can states have reaffirmed their intention to
go ahead with the development of a common market
within the framework of an over-all "Caribbean Com-
munity." An agreement in principle to form such a
grouping was announced last October. Differences
of opinion between the smaller and larger units in
the group will be hard to resolve, however, and a
functioning common market is probably many years
off .
The four independent countries in the group--
Guyana, Jamaica, Trinidad-Tobago, and Barbados--
were the prime movers in the Eighth Commonwealth
Caribbean Heads of Government Conference that met
in Guyana from 9 to 13 April. The "Georgetown Ac-
cord" that they fashioned calls for these four
states to take the lead in setting up the Caribbean
Community--a loose regional economic and cultural
association--on 1 August 1.973, with the smaller
states joining by 1 May 1974. The current time-
table represents considerable slippage in the dates
announced last year by these same leaders and re-
flects the difficulty the delegates had in putting
together an agreement.
A major stumbling block was the persistent
fear of the smaller states that they would benefit
less from the proposed new economic arrangements
than the larger states. These fears appeared to be
at the root of the refusal of two islands, Antigua
and Montserrat, to sign the accord. One key con-
cession that was made by the "big four" was an
agreement that the smaller units would not neces-
sarily be bound to a "common approach" in working
out their future relationships with the European
Communities. These economically hard-pressed de-
pendencies regard such flexibility as vital.
The four independent states, which established
diplomatic ties with Cuba late last year, announced
a decision to send a joint trade mission to Cuba in
May. None of the four has as et established a
permanent mission in Havana.
18 Apr 7 3 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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