CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022500110001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 15, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 42
15 August 1972
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No. 0195/72
15 August 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: More signs point to heavier enemy attacks.
Page 1)
SWEDEN - NORTH VIETNAM: Swedish aid to North Viet-
nam will be increased. (Page 3)
JAPAN-CHINA: Tanaka moving fast to normalize Sino-
Japanese relations. (Page 4)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA-USSR: Soviets support the recent
Czech trials. Page 6)
UN-DISARMAMENT: Soviets will introduce new proposal
for wor conference. (Page 7)
NEPAL: Government cracks down on opposition. (Page 8)
CHILE: Allende plans visits to the USSR and Cuba
Page 9)
URUGUAY: Foreign exchange crisis (Page 9)
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CVIETNAM: There are additional signs pointing
to a sharp increase in enemy military activity soon.
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the Communists would like to pick up the pace
of the attacks between now and late August. Commu-
nist cadre are being told that another round of of-
fensive action will undercut US policy on the war
and force concessions from Washington. The string
of terrorist, sapper, and small-scale infantry at-
tacks of the past few days may mark the opening of
this effort.
In the northern provinces, sustained artillery
fire continues to impede the South Vietnamese Ma-
rine effort to retake Quang Tri City. On 13 August
more than 1,000 artillery and mortar rounds were
directed against marine positions. The Communists
used 160-mm. mortars for the first time on the north-
ern front in this barrage. Despite their success
in holding off the government's assaults, there is
evidence that Communist forces are experiencing
difficulties.
Enemy shellings tapered off somewhat west of
Hue, but South Vietnamese forces reported a number
of small-unit clashes in the vicinity of Fire Sup-
port Base Bastogne. Some clashes also occurred in
southern Quang Nam Province near the district town
of Que Son.
Communist pressure against government posi-
tions in northwestern Pleiku Province is continuing.
A border ranger camp was shelled on 13 August, the
third such attack in the past week. Other enemy
action included the ambush of a convoy on Route 19
and the destruction of a large amount of artillery
ammunition stored near Pleiku City.
(continued)
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C Government troop positions and base camps in
the provinces north and east of Saigon continue
to be targets for shellings. Bases at Lai Khe in
Binh Duong Province and Long Binh in Bien Hoa Prov-
ince, for example, have been shelled for four
straight days. Military activity in the delta re-
mains concentrated largely in the northern provinces
as enemy troops continue to attack lightly defended
outposts.
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SWEDEN - NORTH VIETNAM: Swedish aid to Hanoi
will be increased, and the timetable for reconstruc-
tion assistance perhaps pushed up.
According to an announcement by the Swedish
Foreign Ministry, the Swedish International Develop-
ment Authority will take over responsibility for
the program, previously administered by the Swedish
Red Cross.
Sweden will give $67 million in aid to North
Vietnam over the next three years, a $22-million
increase over the last three-year aid program.
Since 1970, $10 million of the annual $15-million
allocation had been earmarked for redevelopment and
was only to be released after hostilities cease.
Under the new program the earmarked funds will be
released now, although the government contends it
has not changed its reconstruction plans. Releasing
the earmarked funds may be largely a bookkeeping
operation, but it does stress Stockholm's support
for Hanoi and will permit the Swedes to act quickly
when the situation warrants. Original reconstruc-
tion plans called for wood pulp plants but now in-
clude reconstruction, equipping, and staffing of
at least one hospital.
According to State Secretary Klackenberg, who
headed a government delegation that returned from
Hanoi on 13 August, the decision to increase aid
was taken because of the "disastrous situation
caused by the US bombing offensive." Klackenberg
said he hoped that deliveries, which at first would
consist of medicines, milk, and textiles, could be-
gin in the fall.
When Sweden began its expanded aid program for
North Vietnam in 1969, the American dockworkers
union threatened to boycott Swedish ships for what
it considered an unfriendly act toward the US.
Stockholm subsequently assured the dockworkers that
the aid would be purely humanitarian until the war
was over, and the boycott was averted.
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JAPAN-CHINA: Prime Minister Tanaka is moving
rapidly prepare the political groundwork for
early normalization of Sino-Japanese relations.
According to the daily newspaper Mainichi, the
government has prepared a declaration for signature
during Tanaka's forthcoming visit to Peking. The
newspaper report, which could be a deliberate gov-
ernment leak, claims the key points of the draft
include establishment of diplomatic relations, re-
affirmation that these relations are based upon
China's five principles for peace, and legal con-
firmation that the Sino-Japanese war has been ter-
minated. In addition, the proclamation covers a
waiver of Peking's claims for war reparations, a
declaration that the 1952 Japan - Republic of China
Peace Treaty has been annulled, and agreement that
negotiations for a Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty will
be undertaken. An actual exchange of ambassadors,
the paper reports, would await subsequent ratifica-
tion of the declaration by the Diet.
The Prime Minister will meet this morning with
a ranking Chinese official in Tokyo, and it is pos-
sible that a date for Tanaka's meeting with Chou
En-lai will be set at this time. The press is fo-
cusing on late September, and government officials
appear to be operating on this assumption. Tanaka
himself is working to win a consensus within the
ruling party for each of his moves, and the leak
of the draft declaration was probably designed to
test reaction to his new terms, particularly in the
Liberal Democratic Party's right wing. Earlier
this month Tanaka and Ohira used a similar tactic
to win acquiescence by publicly acknowledging that
formal relations with Taipei will be severed when
diplomatic ties with Peking are established, and
press rumors that Tanaka will leave for China on
20 September are probably additional moves in the
same game. Tanaka has set up a committee of lead-
ing members of the ruling party to "advise" him on
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the recognition issue, another device to forge and
display publicly a party consensus on all problems
connected with normalization.
The prime minister's approach allows him to
stay ahead of public opinion and his parliamentary
opposition on the issue without formally committing
.the government to rigid. positions any sooner than
necessary. For example, the cabinet may ultimately
decide simply to allow the treaty with Taipei to
"lapse" when relations with Peking are established,
rather than formally declaring it annulled.
China will have no problems with the draft
declaration, although a specific reference to Pe-
king's "three principles" may also be necessary.
Indeed, Mainichi claims that the draft largely cor-
responds to~tieviews of China's leaders as expressed
through "informal contacts." This is probably a
reference to the recent visit to China of Komeito
Party leader Yoshikutsa Takeiri, who had extensive
conversations with Chou En-lai at the b inning of
this month.
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SECRET
CZECHOSLOVAKIA-USSR: The Soviets have now
joined with the Czechoslovak regime in. justifying
the recent trials in Czechoslovakia and have rebuked
the Western press, which has claimed the charges
were trumped up to permit punishment of leaders of
the Dubcek era in 1968.
On 8 August Rude Pravo, Prague's party daily,
lashed out against Western support of the "criminals"
by claiming that the defendants were charged and
prosecuted according to Czechoslovak laws on "sub-
version activities against the republic," "damaging
the republic's interest abroad," and "other crimes."
The article further claimed the criminal actions
"broke the law and created a threat to the tranquil-
lity and security of the state and its citizens."
Pravda reprinted this article the next day and yes-
terday accused Western critics of the trials of try-
ing to disrupt European detente.
There is little doubt that this Czechoslovak-
Soviet rebuttal is also directed against certain
Western Communist parties that have dissented from
Prague's actions. The politburos of the French and
Italian parties have issued statements critical of
the trials.
Since 17 July there have been nine subversion
trials in Prague and Brno. They ended with the
sentencing of 46 people for periods ranging from
six and one half years to suspended one-year terms.
There have been no acquittals. Prague has main-
tained the trials were for violation of state law
since 1970 and not for political support of Dubcek,
and indeed the defendants can be faulted for carry-
ing out "anti-state activities" as defined by
Czechoslovak law, such as distributing pamphlets
and leaflets and forming opposition groups.
Party leader Husak left for a vacation in the
USSR two days before the first trial; since his re-
turn on 6 August, no prominent liberals have been
brought to trial and the trials may be winding down.
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UN-DISARMAMENT: The Soviets hope to focus
discussion o isarmament topics at this fall's
UN General Assembly on their updated proposal for
a World Disarmament Conference (WDC).
The Soviets have indicated they will call for
a conference open to all states that would be held
within the next year or two and would last from
four to six weeks. In the Soviet view, the confer-
ence could develop into a permanent body that would
convene every two or three years. Moscow wants the
preparatory work to begin early next year.
Even though Peking advocates a WDC, the Chi-
nese strongly opposed Moscow's WDC initiative at
last year's General Assembly and are likely to do
so again this year. Peking's permanent representa-
tive in New York said recently that the Chinese
position on a WDC has not changed. The Chinese
still argue that it is inappropriate to set a date
for a conference and to establish preparatory ma-
chinery when there is no understanding on the goals
of a WDC.
At least some of the Western allies not only
oppose preparations for a WDC but are skeptical
about the whole idea. They fear that it would be-
come a propaganda forum, interfere with SALT, and
largely supplant the work of the Conference of the
Committee on Disarmament: (CCD) in Geneva. Although
the nonaligned countries generally favor a WDC, they
do so at least in part because it has so far been
impossible to bring the Chinese into the CCD.
The Geneva talks, meanwhile, have made little
progress. Discussion of a chemical weapons (CW) .
ban--this summer's main topic--has been stalled on
the question of verification. The Soviet delegation
continues to show signs of flexibility, however,
saying that it would be willing to negotiate partial
CW prohibitions and to extend the current session
into September for that purpose.
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NEPAL: The government is cracking down on the
opposition.
On Sunday four outspoken legislators were ar-
rested in Kathmandu following their participation
in a proscribed protest rally. Foremost among the
detainees is Surya Thapa, prime minister from 1967
to 1969, who is spearheading a drive for sweeping
changes in the tightly controlled political system.
Thapa wants democratic reforms that would include
open sessions of the legislature, a broadened elec-
toral base, legalized political parties, and a prime
minister who is responsible to the legislature
rather than to the King.
In recent months antigovernment sentiment has
grown and the opposition has openly attacked the
government for its handling of localized food short-
ages, the retention of political prisoners, press
restrictions, and general inefficiency. Student
groups have supported the movement, adding complaints
against the academic system.
Additional arrests probably will follow and
will give a better idea of the scope of the crack-
down on the politicians who have taken advantage of
King Birendra's reluctance to exert firm political
control since assuming the throne six months ago.
Birendra has generally focused on economic issues,
but provocations from Thapa and others appear to be
forcing him to assert his authority, even though
the young King may eventually grant some of the
desired political reforms.
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CHILE: President Allende plans to travel to
the USSR with stops in Mexico and Cuba in October,
according to an official announcement. This will
be Allende's third official trip abroad, and the
first outside Latin America. Allende previously
was reported to be interested in a vacation stop-
over in Europe if an invitation could be arranged,
but he may not wish to remain out of Chile for long
unless economic and political problems subside.
URUGUAY: A government proposal to combat the
deepening foreign exchange crisis by paying off
substantial accumulated commercial arrears in bonds
is meeting opposition from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). Because foreign exporters probably would
sell these negotiable, interest-bearing bonds to
financial institutions at a discount, future sales
would be under increasingly stringent terms. Mon-
tevideo must reduce commercial arrears to $37 mil-
lion by 30 September in order to keep its standby
credit from the IMF, and such arrears already are
above the $63-million level that existed when the
credit was negotiated. Alternative solutions such
as private foreign bank loans using gold as col-
lateral or the sale of gold remain unacceptable
politically to Uruguay.
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