CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022500070001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 10, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
N2 42
10 August 1972
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No. 0191/72
10 August 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
JAPAN-US: Opposition likely to press Tanaka govern-
ment on US base issue. (Page 1)
USSR: The leadership is concerned over this year's
grain crop. (Page 3)
THE NETHERLANDS: A minority government is formed.
(Page 4
UGANDA: Tribal unrest in the army threatens the
government. (Page 5)
IRAQ: Kurdish nationalists believe the truce with
the government may break down. (Page 6)
NORTH VIETNAM: Dike breach' (Page'17 )
BOLIVIA: Compensation for nationalized mine (Page 7)
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JAPAN-US: The Tanaka government is likely to
face new opposition pressure as a result of leftist
action against the presence of large US bases.
The Japanese media are giving heavy coverage
to the successful, effort on 6 August by leftist
demonstrators to prevent US tanks destined for Viet-
nam from being loaded at Yokohama. Despite rights
granted to the US military by the mutual security
treaty, the press has portrayed US forces as seek-
ing to defy local. law--the convoy did not have a
proper road-use permit.
Leaders of the Japan Socialist Party, the
largest opposition party, joined with the leader of
Japan's largest trade union federation and the left-
ist governor of Tokyo in promising similar action
against US bases on a nationwide scale. Workers at
the base where the tanks are overhauled voted not
to repair US tanks bound for Vietnam in the future,
one of the few times that Japanese workers at US
bases have refused to carry out duties for purely
political reasons.
The government, already under sharp question-
ing in the Diet, probably wants to avoid appearing
too accommodating to the US on the issue. US and
Japanese officials are attempting to break the im-
passe over how to move the tanks to dockside with-
out further inflaming sentiment against the US mil-
itary presence.
The government's policy toward US bases in
Japan is likely to come under increasing fire in the
months ahead as Socialist and other leftist forces
shift emphasis from abstract, ideological arguments
against the US bases to direct action against spe-
cific base irritations. The situation is likely to
be aggravated by Socialist strength at the local
government level in areas in which the bases are
concentrated. As a possible harbinger of things to
10 Aug 72
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come, the Tokyo metropolitan government on 5 August
announced it was refusing to extend its contract
with the national government to lease to the US the
land occupied by Yokota Air Base in Tokyo's suburbs.
The contract, which must be renewed annually, ex-
pires in February. Tokyo government officials have
threatened to take the case to court, if necessary.
Over the longer term, it appears inevitable
that elements opposed to the US military presence
will seek to exploit such incidents, as well as the
increasing Japanese sense of national pride and grow-
ing competition for use of Japan's limited land re-
sources, to embarrass the government.
10 Aug 72
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USSR: The Central Committee conference on 8
August on the harvest reflects the leadership's
concern that this year's grain crop will fail to
meetbbth domestic and foreign requirements.
The conference, addressed by Brezhnev, report-
edly discussed the progress of the harvest, procure-
ment of agricultural products, a speedup in land
reclamation work, and the development of the mixed
feed industry. Members of the Politburo, party
secretariat, and Council of, Ministers, as well as
officials of the Central Committee apparatus and
editors of central newspapers, attended. Brezhnev's
speech was not published.
The gathering of such an array of senior offi-
cials at the height of the vacation season indicates
unusual concern over this year's harvest. It is es-
timated to be nine to ten percent less than the har-
vests of 1970 and 1971, largely because of severe
winter weather and summer drought. Such a harvest
would be a decided setback, to Brezhnev's livestock
program that is designed to improve the Soviet diet.
This program requires a grain harvest substantially
higher than in the last two years. Moreover, the
requirements of the livestock program are believed
to have already drawn down reserve stocks of wheat
to the level considered vital as a strategic reserve.
As a result of the disappointing harvest pros-
pects, the Soviets are buying large amounts of for-
eign grain, mainly wheat, for delivery during the
next year. Purchases from the US, Canada, and
France should enable the Soviets to divert more of
their domestic grain to the livestock sector, ful-
fill most of their grain export commitments, and
guarantee enough wheat of milling quality for their
flour industry. F77 I
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THE NETHERLANDS: The Liberal and three con-
fessional parties have agreed to form a minority
government under Prime Minister Barend Biesheuvel,
but a return to political stability must await the
outcome of elections in November.
Formateur Biesheuvel managed to organize a
four-party government on 8 August, three weeks after
the defection of a fifth partner brought down his
original majority coalition. The new cabinet will
be supported shakily by some 74 of the 150 members
of the lower house, but it may be able to count on
a few additional votes from right-wing splinter
groups.
Hard bargaining attended formation of the new
coalition. The Liberals reluctantly dropped their
call for government intervention by 1 November,
failing a voluntary agreement on wage and price
restraint. The three religious parties, despite
their poor showing in recent polls, acceded to
elections in November, rather than early 1973.
Between now and the elections, Biesheuvel will
attempt to push his 1973 budget through parliament
and to reach an agreement on wage and price policy
for next year. His prospects for success are not
good. On such issues as control of inflation and
defense spending, the national interest is likely
to be subordinated to intense maneuvering by all
parties for electoral advantage.
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UGANDA: Growing tribal unrest in the army
poses a threat to President Amin's government.
I I a dispute
in the army between Amin s Kakwa tribe and other
tribes from his home district of West Nile has al-
ready resulted in several deaths and could easily
precipitate large-scale violence. Officers from
the disaffected tribes resent the growing dominance
in the army of the relatively small Kakwa tribe.
Since Amin seized
power in January 1971, he has more than doubled the
number of Kakwa officers and enlisted men, making
the tribe the second largest in the army. He also
has stationed his fellow tribesmen in key units and
installations.
Under Amin the traditionally unruly army has
become more seriously troubled by tribal, ethnic,
and religious rivalries that have caused bloody
clashes. Large numbers of experienced officers and
non-commissioned officers have been killed or have
fled the country, thereby further weakening disci-
pline. Amin has exercised little control over the
army; his erratic exercise of power has in fact
heightened tensions.
Nonetheless, as long as Amin retains the sup-
port of the key units that were responsible for his
successful coup, he probably will be able to hold
on to power. These units are made up largely of
Amin's fellow tribesmen. However, should they also
suffer from tribal unrest or slip from his grasp,
Amin would have great difficulty retaining control
of the country.
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IRAQ: Kurdish nationalists are concerned that
a two-year-old truce with the Baghdad government
might break down.
I re a ions a ween
Barzani and Iraqi strongman a dam Tikriti are be-
yond repair. There have been few armed incidents
between the regime's forces and the rebels since the
peace accord was signed in March 1970, but mutual
distrust and plotting have continued unabated.
At the moment, concerted action by either side
does not appear imminent. The remoteness of a real
political solution, however, is endangering the
shaky truce.
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J !NORTH VIETNAM:
shows a small area of flooding
about en mi es north of Hai Duong along the Thuong
River. Several breaches are evident in one section
of dike, and water is overflowing a number of other
sections. The area, located just south of the Kep -
Hon Gai railroad, is extremely low and is subject
to annual flooding. Nearby dikes clearly show the
marks of repair from last year's flood, and it seems
likely that the observed breaches were caused partly
by the undermining effects of the 1971 floods. A
bomb crater is visible in one dike in the vicinity,
but none of the breaches is near the crat r.`
BOLIVIA: Continuing its efforts to attract
foreign investment, the Banzer government apparently
has decided to compensate investors in the Mina
Matilde Corporation at a level that they probably
will find acceptable. La Paz plans to offer $13.4
million to US Steel and Philipps Brothers for the
zinc mine nationalized in 1971 by the previous
Torres administration. The US Government has agreed
to encourage the investors to accept this proposal
before the next negotiating session scheduled for
later this month. The payment is to be made in
cash, with the US Government hel ing to arrange
financing for $11.4 million.
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SONG
THUONG
RIVER
WEAN POINT IN DINE
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N
Kep
wa of floodinq 0
Hon Gai
HANOI Hai
Duong Haiphong
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Secret
Secret
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