CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022400110001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 2, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
2 August 1972
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No. 0184/72
2 August 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA: Reduced prospects for the fall grain crop.
Page 1)
.GUYANA: Burnham gets a new cabinet. (Page 2)
ISRAEL: Moshe Dayan comments on key political is-
sues. (Page 3)
USSR-SOMALIA: Moscow hopes to revive its aid pro-
gram. (Page 4)
IAEA-EURATOM: Draft agreement on safeguards (Page 5)
CHINA: Army Day reception (Page 5)
BURMA: U Nu movement (Page 6)
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INDIA: The late onset and abrupt cessation of
monsoon rains have reduced prospects for the fall
grain crop.
As a result of a dry spring without the usual
seasonal showers and only two weeks of monsoon rain-
fall, drought conditions now face a major part of
India. At the same time, however, severe floods in
northeastern India, especially Assam, have destroyed
crops.
Some of the less important early crops have
already failed, reducing the amount of food avail-
able. Fall crops are drying up in the fields, while
others have not even been planted. Food prices rose
sharply in June, and were 11 percent higher than a
year ago.
The foodgrain crop for the year that ended 30
June 1972 may have been as low as 106 million tons,
somewhat short of the anticipated 110-112 million
tons. As a result of current difficulties, hopes
for a harvest of 118 million tons in the year ending
next June have been dashed. Rain within the next
two weeks, however, could prevent a serious crop
failure.
The government is attempting to maintain public
calm by stressing that its eight-million-ton food-
grain reserve is. adequate and available for emer-
gency use. It is too early to determine whether
India will need to import foodgrains. New Delhi,
state governments, and voluntary relief agencies al-
ready are undertaking relief measures to provide
food and water to drought areas and work for unem-
ployed farm laborers.
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GUYANA: Yesterday's mass cabinet resignation
is designed to permit the removal of controversial
cabinet ministers without creating dissension within
the party ranks.
Prime Minister Burnham will probably name more
technocrats to cabinet posts and expand the hereto-
fore negligible East Indian participation in his gov-
ernment. Agreement apparently was reached some time
ago that the cabinet would resign as a body in order
to give Burnham a free hand to reconstitute it in
whatever manner he considered necessary to meet the
needs of the republic. This would enable Burnham
to remove the more outspoken ministers without having
to fire them.
Burnham has become very sensitive to criticism
of his policies, both from within the government and
from opposition elements. A few radical and mili-
tant ministers have accused Burnham of moving too
slowly and cautiously in implementing government pol-
icy. These outspoken critics have embarrassed both
Burnham and the government and threatened to under-
mine government authority. Recently Burnham broke
a long-standing relationship with Eusi Kwayana,
leader of the local black power organization, because
Kwayana criticized government policies and corrup-
tion.
The new cabinet probably will be stronger, tech-
nically more able, and more responsive to-Burnham's
direction. F77 I
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ISRAEL: Recent pronouncements by Moshe Dayan
on key 'Political issues mark an effort by the de-
fense minister to improve his popular image.
At a meeting on 29 July of a Labor Party com-
mittee, Dayan raised the question of the status of
Arab laborers from the occupied territories and
called on the party to reach a decision now on how
Israel should deal with the territories. The fol-
lowing day, Dayan, while admitting the need for the
current coalition of the Labor Party and the National
Religious Party, called on the party central commit-
tee to change its policy on the relationship of
state and religion in Israel. Dayan supports the
relaxation of the control of the Rabbinate over
matters of personal status.
Dayan's latest and somewhat ambiguous approach
to the territories question is a departure from his
previous public position on this issue. He had
earlier supported the economic integration of the
territories into Israel and, as a consequence, be-
came involved in a clash with party strongman Pinhas
Sapir. Sapir, fearful of diluting the Jewish major-
ity, has opposed the incorporation of any Arabs into
the population of Israel, except for those living
in areas whose retention is dictated by security
reasons, In his latest statement, the defense min-
ister has called on the government to act, but has
avoided saying what government policy on the ter-
ritories should be.
Dayan's participation in party debates is un-
usual. His statements, together with his efforts
to expand his political base in the party, appear
to be an effort obtain a broader leadership role
in the party.
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USSR-SOMALIA: Moscow apparently is trying to
revive its stagnating aid program in Somalia by im-
plementing previously agreed upon projects.
Under a recent agreement, the USSR will expand
its assistance to Somalia's fishing industry by con-
structing repair and refrigeration facilities for
use by Soviet and Somali ships engaged in joint fish-
ing operations in the Indian Ocean and by establish-
ing a training center for fisheries personnel. Con-
tracts also have been signed to initiate planning
work on the Fanole dam and 20,000-acre irrigation
project, for which the Soviets last November ex-
tended $18 million in credits. In addition, Soviet
technicians are to assist in the exploration of
quartz deposits in northwestern Somalia.
Soviet economic aid to Somalia since the mid-
1960s has been limited largely to improving opera-
tions in plants built with Soviet credits extended
in June 1961. No new projects were initiated and
no new project aid was extended until February 1971
when $6 million was made available for additional
construction on projects begun under earlier credits.
Moscow late last year agreed to provide Somalia
with additional arms, bringing its total military
aid since 1963 to $50 million.
oug e
press tor more sophisticated weapons such as MIG-21s,
the Soviets have not acceded to these requests and
Somali dissatisfaction over this refusal continues
to increase.
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NOTES
IAEA-EURATOM: A draft agreement on the safe-
guards required by the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty (NPT) was completed in Vienna last week.
The long debate over the proper relationship between
IAEA safeguards and EURATOM's own regional safeguards
system was ended by a compromise limiting the role
of IAEA inspectors. The draft has now been sent to
EURATOM's five nonnuclear-weapons members and is
likely to be formally approved by the Council of
Ministers of the European Community in late Septem-
ber. Ratification of the NPT by the five would
probably follow shortly thereafter. Although France,
the sixth EURATOM member, will not sign the NPT, it
could obstruct council approval of the safeguards
agreement. The EC Commission, however, believes
that France will merely make a number of minor ob-
jections to the agreement, perhaps paving the wa
for French abstention from Council action.
I
CHINA: The large leadership turnout at the
Army Day reception in Peking underscores the image
of unity projected by the joint editorial of 1 Au-
gust, but no new top-level government or military
appointments were revealed. Highlighting the long
list of attendees, which included all active Peking-
based politburo members except Mao, was the first
identification in several years of former economic
planning specialist Chen Yun as vice-premier. The
moderate Chen, who has twice recovered from polit-
ical reverses, was originally downgraded for his
opposition to the Great Leap Forward and, during
the Cultural Revolution, was trucked through the
streets of Peking in a dunce cap. Numerous foreign
visitors were present at the reception and promi-
nently publicized--except for the Soviet border
talks dele ation which was pointedly put last on
the list.
(continued)
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BURMA: The Burmese Government reportedly has
placed all ex-political leaders and former high-
ranking army officers under strict surveillance fol-
lowing the defection last month of former defense
minister Bo Hmu Aung to the U Nu resistance forces
in Thailand. Bo Hmu Aung, who was under the "pro-
tective custody" of the He win government from 1963
to 1968, is the most prominent figure to have joined
the U Nu movement since it was established in 1969.
He was joined in his flight by at least two others,
a well-known author and a member of the Rangoon
municipal council. U Nu's three-year-old resistance
force has demonstrated only a minor military capa-
bility in the Thai border region, but U Nu himself
remains popular and, to some extent, a rallying
figure among the Burmese people. The government's
reaction
mination
to Aung's defection indicates
to prevent the movement from
its deter-
developing
increased
su rt within Burma.
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2 Aug 72 Central Intelli ,'ence Bulletin
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