CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021900010001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 11, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
11 May 1972
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No. 0113/72
11 May 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Communists continue to expand their con-
trol over key southern border areas. (Page 5)
WEST GERMANY: Debate and vote on Eastern treaties
postponed until 17 May. (Page 7)
CHILE: Serious problems persist within Allende
government. (Page 9)
JAPAN: Prospects growing for all-out battle to
goose successor to Sato. (Page 10)
AFGHANISTAN: Year-old government appears to be
a tering. (Page 11)
USSR-SYRIA-EGYPT: Grechko visit (Page 12)
CYPRUS: Bank strike (Page 12)
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(VIETNAM: There has been no substantial change
in the tactical situation in North or South Vietnam
and Soviet and Chinese military activities continue
to appear normal.
In its first official pronouncement on Presi-
dent Nixon's speech, Hanoi devoted considerable
attention to the need for continued support from
its own allies. The government communique, issued
yesterday, includes two long passages exhorting
socialist countries "to check in good time the
bloody hands of the US aggressors" and expressing
"confidence" that Hanoi's allies will not fail to
measure up to their responsibilities. It also re-
iterates most of the caustic language Hanoi's propa-
gandists have been using to condemn the US action,
including allegations that the US is escalating the
war and violating international law.
Hanoi's two top negotiators have reacted
sharply to the US position that the Communists of-
fered nothing new in the latest round of secret
talks. Chief negotiator Xuan Thuy, as he prepared
to leave Paris for "consultations" at home, claimed
that it was Washington and not Hanoi that had been
intransigent in the private discussions. Politburo
member Le Duc Tho maintained that the US was mis-
leading opinion about the kind of government the
Communists wanted in Saigon. He claimed his side
was pressing only for a genuine coalition govern-
ment, not a Communist regime.
The Communists appear to feel that the US
charges have put them on the defensive. Thuy, who
will stop over in Moscow and Peking en route home,
did not reveal how long his consultations in Hanoi
will last. Communist sources did make it clear,
however, that Tho will be staying on in Paris for
the time being.
(continued)
11 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CCommunist forces in South Vietnam continue
preparations for further offensive operations, but
enemy combat action yesterday was light. In north-
ern South Vietnam, supply movements have increased
sharply in the Khe Sanh area.
In the central highlands, Communist attackers
were pushed out of the Ben Het Ranger camp on 9 May
after they had seized about one third of the base,
and government forces there are thus far holding
their positions. Government defenders in Kontum
appear to be getting better organized; the South
Vietnamese 23rd Division is reportedly successfully
integrating the various units there into an effec-
tive fighting force.
President Thieu's replacement of Military Re-
gion (MR) 2 commander General Dzu with the present
commander of South Vietnam's armored command, Gen-
eral Nguyen Van Toan, may help the government im-
prove its declining military position in the region.
Toan is regarded as a competent military officer
who earned high marks for his performance earlier
as commander of the South Vietnamese 2nd Division
in MR 1. However, he also has a. reputation for cor-
ruption.
In the southern half of the country, Communist
forces continue to pressure An Loc; the town was
shelled heavily yesterday and enemy infantry probed
its northern defenses. Prisoners have indicated
that a new assault on An Loc would be led by the 5th
Division. In the delta, enemy activity picked up
somewhat, with most of the action concentrated in
Kien Phong, Kien Tuong and Dinh Tuong provinces.
11 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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C A M B _'0:D I A'
PHNOM PENH*'.
Angiassem
Communists-4
controlled
A
`Takeo
'_Pang Trach
s Pray V.ng
SOUTH
Can Tho,
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CAMBODIA: The Communists are continuing to
expand their control over key southern border areas,
evidently to support military operations in South
Vietnam.
In the past few days, enemy troops have gained
control over the 35-mile length of Route 16 in
Kampot Province north of Kompong Trach, which fell
to the enemy in late April after a protracted siege.
The Communists apparently inflicted heavy losses
on four Cambodian battalions, and burned towns and
villages as they advanced up Route 16. The enemy
actions probably have been led by elements of the
North Vietnamese Phuoc Long Front, but local Khmer
Communists also appear to be involved in the fight-
ing.
With Route 16 now under their control, the Com-
munists are in a good position to put pressure on
several key government positions in Takeo Province.
Enemy elements are reported to be within striking
distance of the lightly defended town of Angtassom,
on Route 3, and there is also evidence of increas-
ing Communist activity around the nearby city of
Takeo, which is being held by four government bat-
talions.
The Communist advances represent the most sig-
nificant enemy activity in Kampot and Takeo prov-
inces since the early days of the Cambodian war.
The Communists' objective in this region probably
is to eliminate any effective government presence
between the cities of Kampot, which is already iso-
lated, and Takeo, thereby facilitating the movement
of troops and supplies into the delta area of South
Vietnam.
The same objective lay behind the Communists'
campaign in Svay Rieng and Prey Veng provinces,
which has given them control of all of Route 1 east
of the Mekong, with the exception of the now-iso-
lated city of Svay Rieng. Phnom Penh's efforts to
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reopen the highway have faltered, and there are no
signs that the government has any serious plans to
mount new operations to clear the highway.
The fresh losses in the border region, the seem-
ing inability of the Cambodian Army to rectify the
situation, and the news of Communist successes in
South Vietnam evidently are all having a significant
im act on the morale of the arm 's officer corps.
11 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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C WEST GERMANY: In the midst of a tension-filled
Bundestag session, government and opposition leaders
decided to postpone the debate and vote on the East-
ern treaties until 17 May.
In the interval, a commission drawn from both
government and opposition ranks will attempt to re-
solve the outstanding disagreement concerning the
transmittal of the all-Bundestag resolution on the
treaties to the Soviets. There may also be further
meetings between Brandt and Barzel.
Yesterday's treaty debate began on an inauspi-
cious note. Barzel had conferred with Soviet Ambas-
sador Falin early in the morning but their failure
to resolve the disagreement concerning the modali-
ties of the Soviet response to the joint resolution
prompted the Christian Democratic leadership to move
at the opening of parliament, to postpone the debate.
The Brandt government. foiled this attempt with
the support of 12 Socialist deputies from West Ber-
lin. The 22 West Berlin deputies in the Bundestag
are only permitted to vote on procedural matters.
Ten CDU deputies from West Berlin supported the op-
position's motion. The vote was 259 to 259 with all
Bundestag deputies present and voting.
The desperate Barzel skillfully regained the
initiative and reinforced party unity by declaring
that the CDU would unanimously veto the treaties if
the government, insisted on further debate. Barzel's
compelling arguments for more time to resolve the
prevailing confusion on the Eastern treaties, cou-
pled with his party's strong showing on the procedu-
ral vote, forced Brandt to yield.
Brandt's desire to gain broad bipartisan sup--
port for the treaties undoubtedly played a part in
his decision. If the new commission can reach agree-
ment this coming week, there is a good prospect that
Barzel can swing the bulk of his party behind the
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Ctreaties on 17 May. The resolution itself will pre-
sent no problem for the commissioners but the CDU
desire to raise the legal status of the Soviet re-
sponse may cause difficulties and further test Mos-
cow's patience.
11 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: The removal of two top officials re-
flects serious continuing problems within the Al-
lende government.
The resignation of Communist. Labor Minister
Jose Oyarce this week almost certainly stems from
the recurrent labor unrest that hinders the ad-
ministration's efforts to solve its economic dif-
ficulties. Oyarce, a longtime union boss, has an
undistinguished record in the cabinet. He has been
kept on despite pressure from other coalition par-
ties only because the Communist Party insisted on
retaining its three original ministers. Oyarce
says that he will return to his party political
tasks, although he was taken off the central com-
mittee's political commission only a few weeks ago
"to devote more time to his official duties."
Oyarce's departure follows a short but costly
strike of copper workers protesting the political
maneuverings of the communist director of Chuquica-
mata mine, David Silberman. The unions at the huge
mine are led by Popular Socialists and Christian
Democrats--not members of the coalition government-
and resent Silberman's abrasive attempts to expand
Communist interests. These and other labor diffi-
culties damage the Communists' prestige at a time
when their control of the Chilean Labor Confedera-
tion has come under strong challenge from leftist
extremists and other political parties.
The ouster of the president of the national
airline, LAN, from his post and from the Socialist
Party also stems from combined political and eco-
nomic problems. LAN, which has been in financial
straits for months, will reportedly be run by another
Socialist, company vice-president. Rodolfo Ortega,
Allende's crony and former private pilot and body-
guard. Ortega announced on 8 May that LAN will buy
Soviet civil aircraft for domestic flights. I _j
11 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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JAPAN: Prospects are growing for an all-out
battle w thin the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
for the succession to Prime Minister Sato.
The pledge by
81
members
of Sato's faction
in
the Diet on 9 May
to
support
International Trade
and
Industry Minister Tanaka's candidacy diminishes
the
likelihood that he will defer to Foreign Minister
Fukuda, the other leading contender. Tanaka now
has the largest group in the party publicly commit-
ted to any aspirant to the prime ministership. The
emergence of this force clearly threatens to divide
Sato's faction into two rival camps, splitting the
base of support Sato would like to retain even after
stepping down from the party leadership. It also
reduces the prime minister's ability to assure the
success of his preferred candidate.
Sato, whose retirement could come as early as
June, apparently has favored Fukuda for years but
recently has moved to a more neutral position. The
public pledge of support for Tanaka may now force
the prime minister to commit himself to one of the
candidates. Nevertheless, the succession struggle
remains a toss-up, and
solved until the eve of
the
the
outcome may
vote within
not
the
be re-
ruling
party.
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AFGHANISTAN: The year-old government of Prime
Minister Abdul Zahir appears to be floundering, and
a new political crisis could be in the making.
Following a drought that lasted for nearly two
years, inadequate transportation facilities and lack
of planning have resulted in severe wheat shortages
in some areas outside the capital. These shortages,
combined with rumors of high-level corruption, have
led to occasional acts of violence and a general
deterioration of security in the countryside.
In Kabul, the university re-opened after a five-
month student strike, but only after the government
capitulated to student demands. May I)ay demonstra-
tions by students and workers were described as the
largest in several years and included speeches against
the government, including a rare attack on the king.
The lower house of parliament, which convened
in early March, has been paralyzed by the lack of
a quorum as a result of the refusal of government
supporters to attend. The Zahir government pre-
sumably fears discussion of the food problem and a
possible no-confidence motion. In recent conversa-
tions with the US ambassador, two members of the
cabinet described the present situation as "anarchy."
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The king, meanwhile, remains aloof and provides no
effective leadership, even though he is known to
be deeply concerned about the deteriorating state
of affairs. If Zahir--the fourth prime minister
in nine years--is forced out, the king, in frustra-
tion, could elect to jettison his entire nine-year-
old "experiment in democracy" and re-im ose a more
traditional and conservative regime.
11 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-SYRIA-EGYPT: Soviet Defense Minister
Grechko has proceeded with his visit to Syria,
scheduled for 10-14 May, and apparently will stop
off in Cairo before returning to Moscow on 16 May.
Grechko was to have visited Syria in December as
part of a tour of the Middle East, but canceled
this trip when he became ill in Iraq, his first
stop. The Soviet defense minister will now have
an opportunity to arrange additional military as-
sistance for Syria, which may have been discussed
during Deputy Premier Mazurov's visit to Damascus
in February.
CYPRUS: The six-week-old strike by the bank
employees' union is now affecting other sectors of
the economy. More than $26 million in merchandise
is tied up in ports because of the inability of
importers to secure the funds and other bank serv-
ices necessary for customs clearance. The bank
union's demands were privately described by other
unions as excessive and inflationary, but there is
no sign that the dispute will be settled soon.
11 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
Secret
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