CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021200100001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 23, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 42
23 February 1972
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No. 0046/72
23 February 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
QATAR: No opposition to ouster of ruler has materi-
alized. (Page 1)
CHILE-USSR: Soviets may seek to expand economic re-
lations. (Page 2)
EL SALVADOR: Assessment of election results.
Page 4)
MOROCCO: King's proposed constitutional changes
draw negative reaction from opposition. (Page 5)
MEXICO: Echeverria reportedly threatens to fire
state governor. (Page 6)
CONGO: President remains in control. (Page 7)
EAST GERMANY - WEST GERMANY: Move to influence
Bundestag debate Page 9)
ISRAEL: War games (Page 9)
ECUADOR: New president faces first major problem
Page 10)
EC: Differences over currency fluctuation (Page 10)
JAPAN: Liberalization of foreign exchange controls
Page 11)
IA-D
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QATAR: The ruler of the Persian Gulf state of
Qatar was deposed yesterday morning by his cousin,
Sheik Khalifa ibn Hamad al-Thani, the heir apparent
and prime minister.
The ouster took place while Sheik Ahmad ibn Ali
al-Thani, the former ruler, was in Iran on a hunting
trip. Shortly after the change of leadership was
announced on the local radio, Sheik Khalifa increased
the salaries of security forces and other civil serv-
ants and canceled debts due the government from low
income purchasers of public housing. No opposition
to the coup has been observed.
the two cousins were at odds during the mid-
1960s, but their relations seemed to have improved
in recent years. Sheik Khalifa has had the respon-
sibility of running Qatar on a day-to-day basis,
while the ousted ruler spent much of his time abroad.
The ruling family is large--numbering perhaps 500
male members--and well-armed. Some members have a
reputation for undisciplined behavior, so the new
ruler will have to make certain that he has the
support of the various branches of the family.
The 3,000-man public security force, which is
divided between military and police components, is
largely comprised of Saudi Arabian and Yemeni mer-
cenaries. It is commanded by Muhammad Mahdi--born
Ronald Cochrane--a former British officer converted
to Islam. The public security force, thus far, has
shown no sign of becoming involved in internal af-
fairs.
Qatar, an oil-producing state with a popula-
tion of approximately 130,000, became independent
last September when its treaty relationship with
the UK was ended.
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SE dft
CHILE-USSR: The Soviets may be seeking to
play a greater role in their economic relations
with Chile.
A high-level Soviet economic mission recently
concluded a three-week stay in Chile. The communi-
que issued at the end of the visit was very general,
indicating that the Soviet delegation probably was
empowered only to study the ~hilean economy and
discuss utilization of Soviet economic development
credits. The communique referred to several indus-
trial sectors in which the two countries may col-
laborate during 1972-75, called for an increase in
trade, and reaffirmed several agreements reached
earlier.
Political and economic contacts between the
two governments were low key last year, with Soviet
economic activity limited to survey work in certain
sectors of the Chilean economy, probably the result
of the preferences of both sides. The wide range
of expertise represented by the economic mission,
however, may indicate an interest in expanding eco-
nomic relations. Moreover, the fact that the dele-
gation's visit immediately fDllowed the visit to
Chile by Andrey Kirilenko, a Soviet party central
committee secretary and politburo member, suggests
greater Soviet willingness tD support the Allende
regime.
Some top Chilean Army leaders still are reluc-
tant to accept Soviet offers of military assistance.
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The Chilean military
establishment would find it iifficult to refuse an
attractive offer, however, particularly because it
wants new equipment. The Allende government, hard
23 Feb 72 Central Intelligen,e Bulletin
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pressed for funds, apparently is urging the army
to accept the Soviet offer of credits. The officers'
reluctance is based on a fear of the accompanying
Soviet military presence and the complicated logis-
tic problem that would result from a large influx
of Communist arms.
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*EL SALVADOR: A tense calm prevails in the wake
of Sunday s photo-finish presidential race; official
results are not expected before tomorrow, but the
governing party's candidate, Colonel Molina, is
virtually certain to emerge with the largest plu-
rality.
Because none of the four candidates polled a
majority, the legislature will make the final selec-
tion early next week between tae two front runners,
Molina and Napoleon Duarte, candidate of the left-
of-center coalition. Although the Legislative As-
sembly is not legally bound to elect the candidate
with the larger plurality, there is little doubt
that Molina will be named. Hi; party holds 34 of
the 52 seats.
Opposition coalition leaders, meanwhile, have
seized upon the government's delay in announcing
the final tally as proof that the results are being
altered. The figures released thus far are credible,
however, in view of the past performance of the
various parties and their relative organizational
strengths. To the average Salvadoran the lack of
a clear majority for the government candidate and
the fact that the opposition parties carried areas
where they were known to be strong are probably
clear indications that the election was fair.
*Because of the shortage of time for prepare tion of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
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MOROCCO: The initial reaction of the opposi-
tion National Front coalition to the King's proposed
constitutional changes is negative, but the Front
has not said it will campaign for a "no" vote in
next week's referendum.
The Front's public statement on the proposed
changes, issued after a hastily convened meeting
of its central committee, avoided an outright re-
jection. It declared that the proposals do "not
respond to the demands of the situation or consti-
tute a valid solution." The Front's major complaint
seems to be that the King has not agreed to other
demands, including naming a new Front-approved gov-
ernment, dissolving the present parliament, and
holding new elections.
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on y the head of the Berber-based Popular
Movement, a party created more than a decade ago to
bolster support for the monarchy in rural areas, has
endorsed the constitutional changes.
The King's precipitate action in presenting
the proposals as a fait accompli to the opposition,
with whom he has held political discussions over
the past four months, is characteristic of Hassan's
method of government. The King clearly is attempt-
ing to weaken his opponents by selective concessions
which would sow confusion in their ranks. This
tactic, however, is likely to undermine and dis-
credit the more able and responsible Moroccan po-
litical leaders and may in the long run create more
difficulties for him.
23 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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MEXICO: President Echeverria reportedly has
threatened to fire the Chihuahua state governor
unless he quiets university protest over alleged
"needless" student deaths.
Students at the University of Chihuahua, led
by a professor who is also an official in the local
Communist party, are calling for the resignations
of the governor and his attorney general and an
investigation into the deaths. They claim that
police needlessly killed four students who were
involved in a triple bank robb?ry in Chihuahua on
15 January. Echeverria, appar=ntly fearing the
protest could grow more serious, reportedly has
ordered the governor to dismiss his attorney gen-
eral with the threat that if tuis move failed to
quell the protest, the governor himself would be
the next to go.
Twice in the past Echever--ia has attempted to
placate dissenting students by removing high gov-
ernment officials. In May 197L the governor of
Nuevo Leon was forced to resigi after Echeverria
decided a university crisis in favor of the students.
One month later he fired the mayor and police chief
of Mexico City, allegedly to facilitate an inves-
tigation of an incident in whi.:h several students
were killed. The US Embassy notes also that rela-
tions between Echeverria and t:ie Chihuahua governor
are not good, chiefly because .he governor did not
support Echeverria as the ruling party's presiden-
tial candidate.
The president currently i:; faced with student
strife at Sinaloa University and obviously does
not want that unrest, coupled with the Chihuahua
protest, to grow into a wides _7ead cause for stu-
dents.
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C CONGO: Confused power plays yesterday appar-
ently left President Ngouabi in control.
President Ngouabi returned from a coastal visit
to Brazzaville on 22 February where he announced
that loyalist troops in his absence had foiled a
take-over by radical military elements.. His remarks
indicated that the government again holds the cap-
ita-l's key installations, including its broadcasting
facilities. The purported coup :Leader, army politi-
cal commissar Diawara, remains at large with a few
associates; not all the rebellious soldiers have
been disarmed.
At the same time, army Chief of Staff Yhomby-
Opango, ostensibly Ngouabi's closest military sup-
porter and a fellow tribesman, claimed he countered
the coup in consultation with the president, and
was not making a separate bid for power. Radio
Congo initially charged Yhomby-Opango with arresting
certain political bureau members without authoriza-
tion and trying to overturn Ngouabi in a rightist
plot.
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Haifa
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EGYPT
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Military Exercise
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Pass
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(Israeli-occupied)
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CAI 'Agabah
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NOTES
ment yesterday that it intends to implement the
inter-German transit and inner Berlin travel agree-
:merits over two holiday periods is clearly timed to
influence the Bundestag's consideration today of
the Soviet and Polish treaties. The East Germans
described the decisions as "temporary" for the
Easter and Pentecost holidays and billed them as a
gesture of "good will" toward European detente.
East Germany hopes the announcement will generate
support for the treaties in the Bundestag debate.
The failure of Bonn to win comparability between
West Berlin and West German travel rights in the
GDR has been a major reason, for opposition to
Brandt's Ostpolitik. Putting these agreements
into effect even temporarily would upset the under-
standing that this action-should follow the signing
EAST GERMANY - WEST GERMANY: Pankow's announce-
of the quadripartite protocol.
ISRAEL: The Israelis began their largest and
most complex war games on 20 February. Armor, para-
troop, and infantry brigades, backed by close air
support and artillery, moved from northeast Sinai
westward to Jabal Libni, south to Bir Hasanah and
then on toward the Bir ath Thamadah area. The ob-
jective of the game was to stage an Israeli counter-
attack against Egyptian forces moving through the
Mitla Pass. Most phases of the operation that in-
volved some 1,000 tanks and armored personnel car-
riers reportedly were well executed, although a
serious command and control problem did develop.
Prime Minister Meir, Defense Minister Dayan, Chief
of Staff Elazar and some cabinet and Knesset mem-
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bers observed the exercise.
(continued)
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ECUADOR: President Rodriguez faces his first
major problem since taking po'aer last week with the
resignations of the commanders of the navy and air
force, who, with the recently named army commander,
were to serve as a government council. Admiral
Vallejo and General Espinosa reportedly believed
that they were nothing more t:ian figureheads and
that real power would be exer.:ised by Rodriguez
and his army advisers. In addition, Espinosa is
senior to Rodriguez, and the iew army commander
was only third in seniority of army colonels. The
navy and air force apparently also felt slighted
by the composition of the cab..net--the navy re-
ceived two ministries and the air force one. As
long as Rodriguez retains the support of the im-
portant army commands he can :remain in office,
but the lack of unified military backing is certain
to hamper his exercise of power.
EC: Substantial differences over the initial
narrowing of the permissible margin of fluctuation
among EC currencies have beconne evident in economic
and monetary union discussion:; following the recent
Brandt-Pompidou accord. German Economics and Finance
Minister Schiller and French "finance Minister Giscard
d'Estaing agreed upon a reduc-:ion of the EC margin
from the current 4.5 percent :0 2.25 percent at this
time, although the ministers (lid not reach corre-
sponding accord on economic policy coordination.
At the EC Monetary Committee sleeting last week the
other states expressed preferences for intra-EC
margins ranging from 1.5 percent to three percent.
The Dutch favor only a small :_nitial reduction in
margins to three percent. Thu;y believe that an
overly ambitious harmonization scheme would not
succeed and could lead to the adoption of national
policies harmful to European unity. Proposals on
economic and monetary union a:-e to be discussed at
an EC finance ministers meeting, which the UK also
will attend, scheduled for 6-'? March.
23 Feb 72 Central Intelligen. -e Bulletin
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JAPAN: Tokyo's planned liberalization of for-
eign exchange controls on 1 April will help pave
the way for the eventual creation of a broader based
international money market in Japan. In the short-
run, however, the liberalization will have little
impact on the local foreign exchange market, pri-
marily because few Japanese firms now are willing
to hold dollars any longer than necessary. Under
the new rules, local firms no longer will be re-
quired to sell their foreign exchange earnings from
goods and services trade to exchange banks within a
specified time period. In addition, non-residents
will be permitted to open foreign exchange accounts,
although transactions in these accounts still will
require official approval.
23 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
Secret
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