CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019600030002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 23, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975A019600030002-0
Top Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C 1-96
23 July 19 71
Approved For Release 25 : CIA-RDP79T00975A019600030002-0
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
 Approved Fc
25X1
23 Ju y
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
SOUTH VIETNAM: Thieu's forces are going all out to
eliminate Ky from the presidential race. (Page 3)
25X1
PHILIPPINES-CHINA: Manila is pressing its interest
in the Spratly Island area of the South China Sea.
(Page 6)
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0196P00030002-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
 Approve For Release I , A. I I'll '' 11 '' '' , i , 5-AUID7
2003/06/23 71 - 002-0 25X1
SOUTH VIETNAM: President Thieu's camp appears
to bem oihits best to eliminate Vice President Ky
from the presidential race.
Although reports are not complete for much of
the country,
ieu s organ:Lza ion has already col-
lected over 400 signed endorsements from the 550
provincial and city councilors, often with the help
of heavy pressure from the province chiefs. In Mili-
tary Region 3 all but one of the 93 provincial coun-
cilors have reportedly endorsed the President.
Although Thieu may not be aware of all the de-
tails, he appears to have directed application of
the necessary pressures to be handled at the local
level by the province chiefs. The arm-twisting
powers of an aroused province chief are great; his
cooperation is essential to virtually every local
project and as a last resort he can fire provincial
councilors on various legal pretexts.
.A number of provincial councilors who have not
signed for Thieu are reluctant to endorse Ky, es-
pecially representatives of the An Quang Buddhists
who recall the suppression of their struggle move-
ment in 1966 by Ky and his supporters.
it appears that Ky's present
total of -signed endorsements is quite low, probably
no more than 30. Under the election law, a candi-
date must acquire endorsements from 100 councilors
or 40 national assemblymen. With so many endorse-
ments already committed to the President, it seems
unlikely that Ky will obtain the necessary signa-
tures by the filing date of 4 August.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
I 1 !!11 ''111 C!
Approved or Release
-
002-0 25X1
 Appro
Big Minh, on the other hand, is expected to
qualify with ease. If Minh continues to show re-
luctance for a tough political fight, however, and
concludes that the government's tactic of elimi-
nating Ky offers him little chance of winning, Minh
may make good his threat to quit. This would leave
Thieu with no credible opponent on election day.
23 Jul 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO1960003p002-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
 Approved
Contested Islands in South China Sea
CHINA
NORTH'
VIETNAM
'Hanoi ....w.
HAI-NAN
LAOS
MACAO
HONG KONG
,Woody
PARACEL ISLANDS
25X1
SOUTH
VIETNAM
CAMBODIA
F
Philippine occupied
1I[I/ - \
Nanshan
Itu Aba
Chinese Nationalist occupied -
PHILIPPINES l
PALAWAN,!;
MILES 200
Apprq
MALAYSIA
30002-0 25X1
 Approved - 00030002-0 25X1
PHILIPPINES-CHINA: Manila is pressing its in-
terest in the internationally contested Spratly Is-
land area in the South China Sea although its maneu-
verability on the issue is severely limited by strong
counterclaims from Taipei and Peking.
Motivated by geological reports that the shallow
waters adjacent to some of the Spratlys are poten-
tially rich in oil, President Marcos publicly asked
Nationalist China earlier this month to withdraw its
battalion-sized military garrison from the island of
Itu Aba. Taipei firmly rejected the request. In
mid-July, Peking issued a strongly worded statement
reasserting a broad claim to the Spratlys and de-
nouncing Philippine attempts to "encroach on China's
territory."
25X1
The
three islets 50 to 100 miles from Itu Aba and prob-
ably consist of no more than 150 navy and marine
personnel. Manila's capability to reinforce these
elements is severely limited.
The historic Chinese claim to the Spratlys has
been reinforced since 1946 by Taipei's military oc-
cuption of Itu Aba. Recently, the issue of sover-
eignty has been complicated by South Vietnam's re-
affirmation of its long-standing claim to the island
group. Philippine interest in the Spratlys dates
from 1956, when a Philippine private citizen claimed
personal ownership of the eastern islands in the
group--known by the Filipinos as "Freedomland"--on
the basis of his exploration and commercial exploita-
tion of the area.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approveq For Release 2003106125 m - 002-0
25X1
 25X1
Approve For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600 30002-0
In view of Taipei's unqualified rejection of the
Philippine demand and Peking's subsequently strong
reassertion of its claim, it seems likely that the
Philippines will refrain from taking measures to oust
the Nationalists. The Philippine desire for oil--the
nation has no known petroleum deposits--suggests, how-
ever, that Manila may still consider occupying other
islands in the group.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600010002-0
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
Next 7 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0
25X1
Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2003/06/25 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19600030002-0