CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019300040003-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2003
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: June 16, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A019303dret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
T
16 June 1971
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
CHILE: Foreign exchange reserves are falling rapidly.
USSR - OUTER SPACE: Space liability convention
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Next 7 Page(s) In Document Exempt
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CHILE:, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES ARE FALLING
RAPIDALLENDE PROBABLY WILL FACE A SEVERE BALANCE-
OF-PAYMENTS CRISIS BY EARLY 1972 UNLESS POLITICALLY
DIFFICULT REMEDIAL STEPS ARE TAKEN.
ioF-
FICIAL NET RESERVES HAVE FALLEN -
CENT SINCE ALLENDE CAME INTO OFFICE, AND THE EMBASSY
ESTIMATES THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE ONLY ABOUT $100 MIL-
LION BY THE END OF THE YEAR. BECAUSE OF DECLINING
EXPORT EARNINGS AND SHARPLY RISING IMPORTS, THE EM-
BASSY IS PREDICTING A TRADE DEFICIT OF ABOUT $180
MILLION AND A CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT OF ABOUT $350
MILLION IN 1971, UNLESS THERE IS A DRAMATIC AND UN-
FORESEEN REINVIGORATION OF COPPER OUTPUT OR A SHARP
JUMP IN WORLD COPPER PRICES.
ALLENDE COULD PARTIALLY IMPROVE THE SITUATION
BY TAKING POLITICALLY UNPOPULAR STEPS TO REDUCE IM-
PORT DEMAND. SUCH MOVES AS CONSUMER GOODS RATIONING,
CURRENCY DEVALUATION, AND REDUCED EMPHASIS ON INCOME
REDISTRIBUTION ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING 19?11
HOWEVER, BECAUSE THEY WOULD FALL HARDEST ON THOSE
GROUPS THAT PROVIDE ALLENDE WITH THE BULK OF HIS
POLITICAL SUPPORT.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NOTES
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USSR - OUTER SPACE:
I MOSCOW HAS ACCEPTED -
BELGIAN PROPOSALS ED TO RESOLVE THE'LENGTHY
IMPASSE OVER THE CONVENTION. ON LIABILITY FOR DAMAGE
CAUSED BY ERRANT SPACE VEHICLES. THE COMPROMISE
PROVIDES FOR AN INTERNATIONAL CLAIMS COMMISSION,
BUT ITS RECOMMENDATIONS WOULD NOT BE BINDING ON THE
OFFENDING PARTY. THOUGH THE LACK OF SUCH ASSURANCES
MAY PROVE UNPALATABLE TO A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, THEY
ARE UNLIKELY TO BLOCK COMPLETION OF THE CONVENTION
WHICH THEY HAVE STRONGLY DESIRED FOR SEVERAL YEARS.
THE SOVIET MOVE WILL ENABLE IT TO POINT AGAIN TO
ITS INTEREST IN REACHING AGREEMENTS WITH THE WEST
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IN SENSITIVE AREAS.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2003/08/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO19300040003-1