CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019200050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 5, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
N?_ 040
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5 June 1971
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No. 0134/71
5 June 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
EAST PAKISTAN: Economic activity remains well below
normal. Page 1)
USSR-CANADA: Wheat purchase. (Page 2)
BOLIVIA: Campaign against US military advisers.
(Page 4)
INDIA: Offshore oil hopes have not been borne out.
Page 5)
GUINEA: President Toure continues to be occupied
with threats to his government. (Page 6)
BULGARIA-CHILE: Credit agreement (Page 11)
USSR: Krivak-class destroyer (Page 11)
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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - US:
Page 2
Sugar quota reduction
Increasing living costs (Page 12)
USSR - OUTER SPACE: Moon treaty (Page 13)
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EAST PAKISTAN: Economic activity remains well
below normal an prospects for the future are dis-
mal.
The US consul in Dacca reports that economic
recovery seems to have reached a plateau. Prices
of most commodities in the capital have stabilized
at about 20 to 30 percent above prehostility levels,
and would be even higher if the population in Dacca
were not down to about half that of normal times.
Businessmen stress that no progress is possible un-
til a political solution is found and a sense of
security restored to the community.
In the jute industry--the east wing's most im-
portant--only 7,000 of 25,000 looms are in operation.
These are being used for only one shift, and the use
of new, untrained labor has brought down efficiency.
The May production of jute goods was only 5 to 10
percent of normal, and production in June is not ex-
pected to be much higher.
Food remains the key problem; starvation al-
ready may be occurring in some areas hit by the cy-
clone in 1970. Fragmentary reporting from CARE
representatives, priests, missionaries, and Bengali
travelers indicates that food was critically short
in early May in those areas, and there are no signs
that Islamabad has taken action or even made any
serious plans to overcome distribution problems.
There are increasing external pressures on the gov-
ernment to provide emergency relief to the cyclone-
affected areas and to allow foreign observers to
visit there.
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USSR-CANADA: Moscow has purchased about 3.5
million tons of Canadian wheat worth $235 million,
according to an announcement by a Canadian wheat
board official.
The purchase comes in the wake of Canadian
Prime Minister Trudeau's recent visit to Moscow,
during which the. USSR promised Ottawa preferential
consideration as a source of any wheat imports. A
sale of this magnitude will be used by supporters
of Prime Minister Trudeau to demonstrate the value
of pursuing an "independent" foreign policy and will
help attenuate growing criticism of his recent trip.
The contract includes a balance of about one million
tons the USSR was obligated to buy under a 1966 agree-
ment.
Although the USSR has achieved excellent wheat
harvests in recent years, purchases of Canadian wheat
are a convenient way to meet its increasing commit-
ments to Eastern Europe, Cuba, and North Vietnam
without draining its own stockpiles.
5 Jun 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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BOLIVIA: An incipient leftist campaign to expel
the US M-il Lary Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) is
unlikely to meet with strong opposition from the gov-
ernment or military hierarchy.
On 2 June President Torres told Ambassador Sir-
acusa that in the absence of a Military Assistance
Program there would be no point in having a US mili-
tary mission in the country. Although the program
is being phased out, there is considerable materiel
in the pipeline to Bolivia.
After meeting with the President later that
day, Army Commander Luis Reque-Teran reportedly
commented to the press that any statement on the
mission's presence should be made after an analysis
of its "advantages and disadvantages" for Bolivia.
The army commander's failure to take a strong public
stand in defense of the MAAG may reflect a lack of
self-confidence among senior military officers, and
a reluctance to risk political attack from the left.
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INDIA: India's earlier hopes for a significant
oil s rice at Aliabet in the Gulf of Cambay, India's
first offshore venture, have not been borne out.
According to the Indian press, only a "thin"
oil-bearing structure with an undesirable type of
crude was found in shallow water using Soviet equip-
ment. Russian advisers nevertheless have suggested
that a new well should be drilled in a different
direction and angle in the hope that the oil-bear-
ing belt will be much thicker at other points. Such
drilling will be delayed until the end of monsoon
in October and will require the help of more Russian
technicians.
This setback dims hopes for reduced crude im-
ports, which have been increasing by more than ten
percent per year. Last year India spent about $140
million in scarce foreign exchange for such imports,
and the recent price increases of Persian Gulf
crudes will raise this cost immediately by about
one fourth.
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GUINEA: President Toure continues to be pre-
occupied with internal and external threats to his
government.
Toure's obsession with security was again re-
flected Thursday when a high Guinean official re-
vealed that arrests of suspected domestic enemies
are continuing. Included in recent arrests were
the secretary general of the government and high-
level regional officials whom Toure believes are
part of a larger "fifth column" in league with for-
eign powers. Guinea remains under a state of emer-
gency declared last November following the Portu-
guese-led armed attack on Conakry. Under its pro-
visions, the movement of Guineans and foreigners,.
including diplomats, is tightly controlled.
Since the raid last November, Toure has used.
almost every public and private occasion to warn
Guineans:and friendly governments that new attacks
were being planned. In addition to Portugal, he
has singled out West Germany, with which he broke
relations last January, as the main plotter. Two
African states, Senegal and Ivory Coast, also are
under attack from Toure for allegedly aiding the
"imperialists" by providing bases for "mercenaries"
and allowing recruiting on their territory of anti-
Guinean exiles. To help forestall the attacks he
believes will come, Toure has publicized an order
that prisoners now held for complicity in last
year's raid be shot at the first sign of an inva-
sion.
Charges of anti-Guinean plotting also have
been leveled at France; "private French groups"
and the French intelligence apparat headed by
Jacques Foccart have been cited as the specific
culprits. By avoiding direct accusations against
the French Government itself, Toure may wish to
allow for the possible resumption of a thaw in
French-Guinean relations noted last fall.
(continued)
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There is no independent evidence that new for-
eign-backed attacks on Guinea are imminent. Portu-
gal, however, probably maintains contacts with the
elements of the anti-Toure National Liberation Front
of Guinea (FLNG) that were also involved in the No-
vember operation.
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BULGARIA-CHILE: Sofia has extended a 12-year
$20-million credit to Chile for the purchase of un-
specified equipment, according to press reports from
Santiago. The agreement:, which was signed during a
visit to Santiago by a 1.2-man Bulgarian delegation
touring several South American countries, permits
some repayment in Chilean goods, including finished
and semifinished products. Reports during the nego-
tiations suggested that the credit would be used for
medical supplies and equipment. A high-level Chilean
technical delegation expected to visit Sofia in mid-
July probabl will discuss implementation of the
agreement
USSR: The first of the new Soviet Krivak-class
guided-missile destroyers left the Baltic on 2 June
and appears to be headed for the Mediterranean. A
large new type of replenishment ship, the first Soviet
support ship equipped to provide rapid under-way re-
plenishment, is making its maiden voyage with the
Krivak. The destroyer probably will enter the Black
Sea for trials of its new ASW systems and its surface-
to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.
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DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - US: Proposed US sugar
legislation would cut the Dominican Republic's sugar
export quota in the preferential US market during
1972-74. Under the legislation the quota would be
520,000 short tons--nearly ten percent lower than
the already reduced 1971 level.. The Dominican Re-
public is unusually dependent upon sales to the US
sugar market. During 1.968-70 sugar exports to the
US accounted for nearly half the value of its total
exports. Because the Dominican Republic's proposed
quota is substantially below the 690,000 short tons
averaged during 1968-70 and the 700,000 tons it had
planned on, its sugar industry will face either grow-
ing stockpiles or production cutbacks.
NIGERIA: Living costs in urban areas are con-
tinuing to climb, creating a potentially explosive
situation for the military government. The prices
of staple foods--ground cassava, rice, and beans--
have doubled in the last year, and increases in other
food prices averaged between 25 and 50 percent. Al-
though a smaller than usual harvest this year will
not lead to a serious food shortage, it will drive
up prices even more. The cost of housing also is
climbing as a result of the increased demand for
city dwellings and growing construction expenses.
Landlords are currently seeking to raise rents up
to 100 percent when filling vacancies. A cost-of-
Living salary increase granted to lower income workers
last December has been absorbed by increased prices
and another award probably will be recommended this
summer.
(continued)
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C USSR - OUTER SPACE: The Soviets have drafted
a treaty on peaceful utilization of the moon and
plan to place it on the agenda of the fall session
of the UN General Assembly. Analysis of the text
indicates that it basically covers the same subjects
as the 1966 Outer Space Treaty and does so in simi-
lar fashion. The timing of this move---coming only
a few days before a UN subcommittee reconvenes in
Geneva to consider the space liability, convention---
and its lack of new substance suggest that Moscow's
primary motive may be to divert attention from its
intransigent position that has prevented completion
of the convention. The Soviets do not want to accept
binding arbitration in the convention, which is de-
signed to provide compensation for damage caused by
errant space vehicles.
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