CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018400040001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 2, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/05/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975A018400W '
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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No. 0052/71
2 March 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
CAMBODIA: Matak may replace his chief of staff in
the Defense Ministry. (Page 1)
PAKISTAN: The East's reaction to the postponement
of the National Assembly will be crucial. (Page 2)
TURKEY-CYPRUS: A recent incident could complicate
future Turkish troop rotations. (Page 3)
SENEGAL-GUINEA: President Senghor reportedly will
meet some of President Toure's demands on anti-
Guinean exiles. (Page 4)
SENEGAL: The EC has offered $8 million to aid the
peanut-based economy. (Page 5)
NORWAY: Political instability will continue. (Page 6)
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UNITED KINGDOM: A one-day general strike has inten-
sified growing labor strife. (Page 8)
GUATEMALA: Agreement has been reached on the most
ambitious industrial project yet. (Page 9)
COLOMBIA: The country is generally calm. (Page 1.0)
CAMBODIA: Oil refinery attacked (Page 11)
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Political trial (Page 11)
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CHILE-CUBA: Civil air agreement (Page 13)
PERU: Foreign minister (Page 14)
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CAMBODIA: A group of senior military officers
is said to have induced Acting Prime Minister Matak
to replace General Srey Saman, chief of staff of
the Ministry of National Defense.
the officers
argued that Saman has been trying to undercut other
FANK leaders and to enhance his own power position
since Lon Nol's departure. Saman, the officers
contend, has been telling Matak and other
key officials that there are members of the mili-
tary who are not loyal to Lon Nol or the republic
and must be removed. The group also claims Saman
has stated that he alone is able to deal effectively
with US officials in Phnom Penh who are responsible
for administering the military aid program.
The concerned officers evidently decided to
approach Matak about Saman before the latter manages
to reorganize FANK commands to his own liking.
after hearing their present
on 28 February, Matak agreed to remove Saman from
his command. In order to prepare the public for
his removal, a Cambodian press campaign against him
is to begin at once, although it will not necessarily
identify Saman by name. Matak indicated he may post
Saman abroad as a military attache.
a a
History of ma ing quic he has had
differences with Saman in the past. Lon Nol, before
he left for Hawaii, had stated that he did not want
any major personnel changes, but it is possible
that the FANK officers and Matak believed that Saman
was moving too quickly to strengthen his power and
had to be thwarted before the prime minister's re-
turn. If Saman is replaced, it would represent the
most ..significant political action within the army
since last March and could foreshadow increasing
ferment and jockeying for higher position among
FANK officers.
2 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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PAKISTAN: East Pakistani reaction to the post-
ponement of the National Assembly will be crucial.
in determining Pakistan's future.
The National Assembly was to have met tomorrow
to begin drafting a new constitution. Citing the
inability of East and West Pakistani politicians
to agree on the constitution and the refusal of the
major West Pakistani party to attend, President
Yahya Khan yesterday postponed its convening until
a "later date." Yahya added that should the poli-
ticians resolve their differences he would call the
assembly into session "immediately."
The major point of disagreement between East
and West Pakistan has been the East's insistence
on a constitution that would limit the central gov-
ernment's.responsibilities to defense and foreign
affairs. East Pakistanis had hoped to use their
majority in the assembly to push through this pro-
gram.
C At a large rally yesterday, a member of Mujibur
Rahman's Awami League called for general strikes
today and tomorrow to protest the postponement of
the National Assembly. Mujib may make his position
known in a major address on 7 March. ] Should Mujib
take a strong stand--possibly even proclaim East
Pakistan's independence--Yahya could well face the
prospect of choosing between allowing the division
of Pakistan into two countries or the extremely
difficult task of trying to hold the country to-
gether by force.
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TURKEY-CYPRUS: A seemingly provocative action
by nava escort ships on 26 February marred the ro-
tation of part of the Turkish Army contingent on
Cyprus and could complicate future rotations.
Despite private Turkish assurances that there
would be no provocative acts by the naval ships es-
corting a troopship toward Famagusta harbor, three
95-foot motor launches sailed very close inshore.
One launch later raised a distress signal and was
towed out to sea by the others.
In a sharp reaction the Cypriot Government de-
layed the offloading of equipment that had arrived
with the Turkish troops but later allowed it to
proceed.
Although the, escort craft's movement so close
to shore may have been inadvertent, the Cyprus Gov-
ernment will consider it as an affront because it
is the second such incident in a row. If Nicosia
attempts to impose in advance new restrictions on
the rotation due in August a strong Turkish reaction
could develop.
2 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SENEGAL-GUINEA: President Senghor reportedly
has decided to meet some of Guinean President
Toure's demands for punishment. of anti-Guinean exiles
residing in Senegal.
the Senegalese
have agreed to try the exiles for the same crimes
for which they have been convicted in absentsia in
Guinea. The Senegalese have already arrested six
leading Guinean oppositionists, possibly including
their key spokesman, David Soumah. The agreement
also calls for Senegalese coordination with Guinean
security services to combat anti-Toure exile activ-
ity in Senegal. For their part, the Guineans re-
portedly agreed to accept a number of Guinean spies
deported from Senegal. The Senegalese, however, are
reportedly resisting the Guinean demand that con-
victed Guinean exiles be turned over to Conakry au-
thorities for punishment.
The agreement, which has not yet been fully
ratified by Dakar, apparently was hammered out at a
hastily convened session of the four-member Organ-
ization of Senegal River States (OERS) in Mauritania
on 19 February. The meeting was called by Maurita-
nian President Ould Daddah,who has been actively en-
gaged in bringing Senegal and Guinea together after
weeks of bitter mutual recriminations over alleged
Senegalese support for anti-Guinean dissidents.
Senghor's apparent decision to meet Guinean
demands was prompted, in part at least, by his need
to concentrate on pressing domestic issues. In ad-
dition, Senghor was concerned that his dispute with
Toure was blocking the progress of OERS.
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SENEGAL: The European Communities (EC) has
agreed in principle to provide desperately needed
emergency aid for Senegal's ailing peanut-based
economy.
The Development Fund (FED) of the EC will ex-
tend some $8 million in aid if the Senegalese agree
to pay peanut producers in cash, and at prices
equal to those paid in neighboring countries. Other
strings attached include reform of the state-owned
purchasing agency and permission for the FED to con-
trol the peanut stabilization fund. Such control
would mean that the proceeds from peanut sales would
go to farmers to enable them to pay old debts and to
buy fertilizer instead of being appropriated to cover
the country's budget shortfalls. Although these
conditions are certain to arouse opposition from
vested interests both inside and outside the gov-
ernment, the Senegalese will probably accept them.
Senegalese peanut farmers have been in revolt
against the inefficient and corrupt state-run mar-
keting agency since 1967 when French subsidies ended.
As a result of this, as well as several years of
drought, peanuts. marketed by the agency have de-
clined by 50 percent because farmers smuggled their
crops, to Gambia. Sagging budget revenues have been
augmented by new taxes on imports and domestically
produced consumer items, but the incentive to smug-
gle consumer goods from Gambia" increased, causing
further losses to the treasury in cus?toms'receipts.
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NORWAY: Some clearer indication of the direc-
tion the government crisis is to take will emerge
today when the coalition releases a statement to
Parliament, but political instability will continue
whatever the outcome.
The present crisis was precipitated by public
revelation of events that suggested Prime Minister
Borten was working against his own government's pol-
icy of seeking entry to the Common Market and in the
process compromised classified information. The
Market bid is the hottest political issue in Norway
at present, and all parties suffer some division of
opinion over it.
Beyond this, however, the crisis reflects the
center-right coalition's basic instability. In of-
fice since 1965, it was able to retain only a two-
seat majority in the elections of 1969, and the
standing of its member parties with the electorate
has continued to slip. The dissatisfaction of some
parties in the coalition with Borten's leadership
has been growing, and unsuccessful behind-the-scenes
attempts have been made to get him to step down
voluntarily.
The opposition Labor Party has been quick to
add to the discomfiture of the government, which. has
stumbled from one crisis to another for over a year.
The Labor Party, however, has divisions of its own
and, rather than attempt to govern with a minority
in Parliament, has seemed to prefer watching its
own popular standing rise while the government bears
the onus for difficult decisions.
Should Labor now come to power, it would give
stronger voice to certain themes popular in Scandi-
navia but troublbsome for the US. It committed it-
self in the last election, for example, to the rec-
ognition of North Vietnam in its first 100 days.
Norway's membership in NATO would remain firm, how-
ever, and it is questionable whether a minority
government would undertake any major initiatives.
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UNITED KINGDOM: The one-day general strike: by
some two million engineering workers protesting the
government's industrial relations bill intensifies
the growing labor strife that has beset the Heath
government.
With increased support from Britain's major
unions, the postal workers are entering the seventh
week of their strike in a test of the government's
political and economic power. Ford plants, closed
by a wildcat strike three weeks ago, are still idle.
Another one-day general work stoppage is scheduled
for 18 March.
In the face of accelerating inflation, the
Heath government is unlikely to yield to labor pres-
sure. Despite record unemployment, retail prices
during the month of January increased at an annual
rate of 16 percent. Unless the wage-price spiral
is halted, Britain's export competitiveness will
continue to decline and London may again be faced
with an unacceptable deficit is current account.
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GUATEMALA: The government has reached an
agreement on what is by far the most ambitious
industrial project yet undertaken in Guatemala.
After intermittent negotiations for more
than ten years, an accord has been reached with
EXMIBAL, an International Nickel/Hanna Dining
consortium. The $~5;O-million venture, which
involves the mining and refining of extensive
nickel deposits in the northeast, will more than
double all existing US investment in Guatemala.
Successful negotiation after so many past re-
buffs seems to have turned on EXMIBAL's decision
to accept 30-percent government ownership of
the project.
Successive governments have backed off from
formal agreement with EXMIBAL in the face of na-
tionalist pressure against a "sellout of the
national patrimony." The government will prob-
ably have to deal with similar criticism, es-
pecially from the leftist-oriented university
community, already strongly opposed to President
Arana.
Government spokesmen have tried to forestall
potential criticism with a public relations cam-
paign emphasizing the benefits Guatemala will re-
ceive from EXMIBAL's investment. According to
the ministry of Economics, the government will
realize tax revenue of more than $200 million
during a 23-year period. The government announce-
ment specifically referred to guarantees it had
won for the workers, the health and education
programs to be'paid for by EXMIBAL, and the re-
quirement that the com an must use local trans-
portation facilities.
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COLOMBIA: The country is generally calm follow-
ing disturbances in three cities.
Further violence is possible, however. Student
reaction to Friday's events--which included govern-
ment occupation of the university at Cali and the
death of at least one student--or the Communist-
backed nationwide strike scheduled for 8 March could
provide the next occasion.
;President Pastrana believes that subversives
are behind his troubles. Although Communists and
opposition politicians are attempting to exploit the
situation, the problems have arisen basically from
the high unemployment rate, increasing inflation,
and an administration widely held to be ineffective.
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C CAMBODIA: A Communist mortar attack against
the country's s only oil. refinery at Kompong Sam yes-
terday destroyed two thirds of its oil storage ca-
pacity. Government troops stationed there appar-
ently suffered only minor losses repelling a ground
attack that followed the mortar barrage. This is
the first enemy attack in the vicinity of Kompong
Som. Only limited amounts of petroleum have been
moved from Kompong Som to Phnom Penh on Route 4 since
that highway was reopened in January. As a result
of the attack, the government will now be more de-
pendent than ever on the Mekong River convoys from
South Vietnam .-n maintain essential petroleum stocks
in Phnom Penh.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA: The scheduled trial next Mon-
day o _ leftist radicals for "Trotskyite and Mao-
ist" activity spotlights an additional source of po-
litical dissent. Mostly young students and workers
arrested over a year ago, the radicals are charged
with subverting the state by propagandizing against
the regime and the Soviet Union and forming an il-
legal "Czechoslovak Revolutionary Socialist Party."
Although Czechoslovak liberals have occasionally
been tried for continuing their dissent, this is the
first instance of legal action being taken against
ultraleftists. Although the 19 are nonentities,
their case has drawn considerable attention from
those international anti-Soviet Communist organiza-
tions, including the Fourth International, that ob-
jected to the Soviet invasion and occupation of the
country, and now are protesting the trial.
(continued)
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CHILE-CUBA: The Allende and Castro governments
signed a bilateral civil air agreement on 25 Febru-
ary providing for service between Santiago and Ha-
vana, expected to begin within three months. The
Chilean Government airline LAN will fly one passen-
ger flight and one cargo flight weekly to Havana;
the passenger flight will continue on to Western
Europe. There will be a weekly Cuban flight to
Santiago with a stop in Lima. At present Mexico is
the only other Latin American country with re ularl
scheduled air service to Cuba.
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