CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017400050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 20, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
5..
20 October 1970
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No. 0251/70
20 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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SURINAM: Labor problems and racial friction may
lead to a test of the government. (Page 2)
INDIA: Mrs. Gandhi has suffered a political defeat
in Uttar Pradesh. (Page 3)
PHILIPPINES: The assassination of a Marcos henchman
could set off a bitter provincial political struggle.
(Page 4)
TUNISIA: Bourguiba has a new timetable for pending
constitutional revisions. (Page 5)
CHILE: Alessandri withdrawal (Page 6)
USSR-SOMALIA: Soviet delegation (Page 6)
TURKEY: Cholera epidemic (Page 6)
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SURINAM: Opposition groups may try to force
a test of the government by capitalizing on labor
problems and racial friction.
Racial antagonisms between Creoles (Negroes)
and East Indians have been fanned by a strike of
secondary school teachers. Black power elements
and other radicals reportedly have been involved
in the strike, which began on 15 October and has
shut down several schools. Among the objections
raised by the teachers is the replacement of a
Creole supervisor by an East Indian. According to
the US consul, there is a growing tendency among
the Creoles to regard the issue as basically ra-
cial.
Although a Creole himself, Minister-President
Sedney leads a coalition that is dominated by the
East Indian People's Welfare Party. Sedney has
been having difficulty in controlling his own Pro-
gressive National Party (PNP). Earlier this month
the labor minister, a PNP member, resigned, in part
because of apparent dissatisfaction with East In-
dian dominance.
There has been considerable public criticism
of Sedney since he assumed office last November,
and the current problems may weaken his position
further. Opposition groups believe a major chal-
IF-nae the government could be developing.
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INDIA: Prime Minister Gandhi has suffered a
political defeat in Uttar Pradesh, one of India's
most important states.
On 1 October, Mrs. Gandhi had president's rule--
direct control from New Delhi--imposed upon Uttar
Pradesh as a step toward eventual installation of a
coalition government led by her Ruling Congress
Party in the state. A five-party opposition coali-
tion, however, put together a majority of the state's
legislators before Mrs. Gandhi's party could move.
As a result, the Ruling Congress was forced to bow
out and the five-party coalition took control on 18
October. The new coalition is headed by a member
of the Organization Congress, Mrs. Gandhi's archrival
since the Congress Party split last year.
Some of the prime minister's earlier maneuver-
ings to install the Ruling Congress in power in Uttar
Pradesh were of questionable legality. In particu-
lar, the imposition of "president's rule" seemed
arbitrary and had aroused widespread disapproval.
She was apparently emboldened to act as she did, how-
ever, by overly optimistic reports from the Ruling
Congress' local leadership regarding her party's
statewide strength. When the national parliament
reconvenes next month, Mrs. Gandhi will probably have
to face a no-confidence motion, but her present ca-
pitulation in Uttar Pradesh will take some of the
sting out of the opposition attack.
Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is
a key to the prime minister's planning for the na-
tional elections that must take place by February
1972. Before then, therefore, she may make another
attempt to install a Ruling Congress government in
the state. For now, however, she is likely to con-
centrate on recovering some of her lost prestige and
on reorganizing the leadership of the Ruling Congress
in Uttar Pradesh.
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PHILIPPINES: The assassination of one of Pres-
ident Marcos political henchmen could complicate
Marcos' control over his power base in northern Luzon.
Congressman Floro Crisologo was gunned down on
18 October at a crowded church service in Ilocos Sur
Province, his political fiefdom. Crisologo, a member
of the Ilocano ethnic group, like Marcos had been a
principal guarantor of the Marcos home base in the
Ilocano region. His heavy-handed rule was one of the
Philippines' most notorious examples of the abuse of
power by prominent families.
Ilocos Sur has had a turbulent political history
even by Philippine standards and the assassination
could set off a new and bitter power struggle there.
Marcos has appealed against reprisals and has rein-
forced the provincial constabulary. In the past,
however, the constabulary has been ineffective in
coping with violence in the province.
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TUNISIA: President Habib Bourguiba has estab-
lished a new timetable for pending constitutional
revisions and a party congress.
In a televised speech on 15 October, Bourguiba
indicated that--contrary to the timetable announced
in June--the proposed constitutional changes would
be submitted to the National Assembly without first
securing the approval of the often-postponed congress
of the ruling Destour_Lan Socialist Party.
Bourguiba's interest in proceeding with the con-
stitutional changes springs from his concern over
presidential succession. In his speech, he empha-
sized his fear that anarchy will prevail when he
leaves the scene. In addition to urging party mili-
tants to adopt and adhere to precise constitutional
provisions on succession, he called for a revamping
of the party's structure before its congress is held.
The party congress, originally slated for last
fall, is now scheduled for October 1971. Some
thought had been given to holding the congress last
month. Bourguiba, however, had earlier indicated
his sharp disapproval of the fact that sympathizers
of Ahmed Ben Salah, the discredited former economic
chief who was sentenced last spring to 20 years im-
prisonment, had not been purged from the party. An-
other effort to eliminate Ben Salah's partisans can
now be expected.
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SECRET
CHILE: Jorge Alessandri has withdrawn his name
from consideration in the congressional runoff on 24
October, thus making Allende's confirmation as pres-
ident-elect a certainty. In a statement released
yesterday ex-president Alessandri asked his backers
in congress not to vote for him and stated that this
would enable Allende to take office in "a climate of
maximum tranquility that will strengthen confidence
and permit revitalization of econom'c activity."
USSR-SOMALIA: Soviet Politburo member Polyan-
sky left Moscow yesterday to attend ceremonies in
Mogadiscio marking the first anniversary of the
"Somali Revolution." He will be the highest-ranking
member of the Soviet hierarchy to visit Somalia,
which the USSR has provided with considerable mili-
tary and economic aid in recent years. The visit
underlines Moscow's satisfaction with the policies
of the Somali regime and also is indicative of the
Soviets' mounting interest in the strategically
located East African country. Polyansky is likely
to use the occasion to press for closer cooperation
TURKEY: Prime Minister Demirel has appealed
for calm in the face of a cholera epidemic that
broke out in Istanbul last week. The death toll
has been set officially at 30 but other estimates
run much higher. Despite government assurances that
the epidemic is being brought under control, the
worst may be yet to come as many inhabitants from
the hardest hit slums are fleeing the city and may
spread the disease. Furthermore, stocks of vac-
cine--including those for the American community--
are being rapidly depleted.
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