CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017300030001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 3, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51
3 October 1970
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No. 0237/70
3 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JORDAN: The fedayeen seem to be withdrawing from
Amman, but the situation in the north is less
clear. (Page 1)
EGYPT: Succession maneuvering continues. (Page 3)
CAMBODIA: The lull in major fighting continues.
Page 5)
USSR: Brezhnev has endorsed the new Vietnamese
Communist peace proposals and commented on the
Middle East. (Page 6)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The Six continue to express
concern about the Mills Bill. (Page 8)
ROMANIA-USSR: New treaty (Page 9)
UGANDA: Armed forces commander detained (Page 9)
ECUADOR: Antigovernment violence likely (Page 10)
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I JORDAN: The fedayeen seem to be withdrawing
from Amman, but the situation in the north is less
clear.
The three-man follow-up committee announced
yesterday that fedayeen and army troops had "almost
finished" their withdrawal from Amman.
A oug large numbers of fedayeen
are a mos cer ainly doffing their uniforms and
merging with the local population, the fact that
they are no longer openly challenging the King's
authority is something of a victory for the regime.
At least some fedayeen are actually leaving town;
local observers have reported seeing fedayeen and
their weapons being loaded into trucks in various
parts of Amman and transported to relocation cen-
ters .J
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There is little word on the progress of the
agreement in the north, however. The chairman of
the military committee has stated that Ramtha is
calm, and that fighting was supposed to end in Irbid
and other Jordanian towns yesterday--suggesting that
a hitch may have developed in the application of
the agreement to Irbid, where some of the more rad-
ical fedayeen elements have taken refuge.
(continued)
3 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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oyl,
some fedayeen groups are reported to believe
that Yasir Arafat sold out the commando movement in
working out the Cairo agreement with King Husayn.
Before his departure for Cairo, Arafat was said to
have met with the representatives of five fedayeen
groups and to have agreed to work solely for a cease-
fire, not for a more :Ear-reaching solution. When
the agreement was announced, most commando groups
suspected that Arafat: and the King had been recon-
ciled. The King had been under heavy pressure from
Arab opinion before the agreement and afterwards
seemed to have regained his position in the Arab
world; the extremist fedayeen groups, in particular,
vociferously opposed the agreement, despite Arafat's
efforts to justify his acceptance.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Pales-
tine (PFLP) ---the group responsible for the airline
hijackings--is particularly likely to thumb its
nose at a compromise settlement, and may well be
planning further escapades. Although the hostages
it held were released without conditions, an Egyp-
tian diplomat has given Red Cross representatives
a list of Arab prisoners held by the Israelis whose
release is said to be necessary to avoid further
hijackings and "other measures."
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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E EGYPT: Maneuvering for a successor to Nasir
is continuing in Cairo,
[Press reports of heart attacks suffered by
acting President Sadat and former vice president
Ali Sabri on Thursday appear to be at least partly
the product of the power struggle that is getting
under way. Although both Sadat and Sabri may have
been affected by the strains of Nasir's funeral,
and both do have histories of heart trouble, they
recovered too rapidly to have suffered true heart
attacks, and carried on with business as usual
yesterday
The Al-Ahram story of their heart attacks may
in fact have been intended as an attempt to show
that neither Sadat or Sabri is fit enough to carry
on Nasir's work. The editor in chief of the news-
paper, Muhammad Haykal, who is also a minister of
state, appears to favor former vice president
Zakariya Muhyeddin as Nasir's successor, and prob-
b ly hoped to improve his chances by this maneuver.
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Current Situation
THAILAND
I~~ 1 P
Kompong SpeurPh h
Enemy at#ak /' 3 .tag
Kompong.'-,So
Cambodia
Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
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CAMBODIA: The lull in major fighting contin-
ues although th Communists are maintaining pressure
against government positions along the primary Cam-
bodian roadways. A Cambodian Army artillery posi-
tion and a nearby armored group stationed at Sre
Khlong on Route 4, 15 miles southwest of Kompong
Speu, were attacked early on 2 October; friendly
casualties were light. The Communists also made
several harassing attacks on the government column
halted on Route 6, and reports from the task force
claim that sizable numbers of enemy troops are
positioned just three miles from its eastern flank.
Such daily harassments are typical and serve to
keep the government on the defensive. The tactic
also enables the Communists to control traffic or
even to close portions of some of the major high-
ways, increasing Phnom Penh's isolation from the
countryside.)
Thai Aid
.LThe Thais apparently intend to provide further
military assistance to Cambodia despite their lin-
gering dismay over Phnom Penh's rejection of the
Thai-Kh er volunteer force.
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USSR: Soviet party chief Brezhnev's endorse-
ment 6T Ehe new Vietnamese Communist peace proposals
and tough comments on the Middle East situation high-
lighted his foreign policy statements in Baku yes-
terday.
Brezhnev's nationally telecast speech con-
tained no surprising departures but gave an authori-
tative endorsement to themes already evident in
Soviet policy. His remarks, apart from those on
the Middle East, had the same overall tone of self-
satisfaction present in his foreign policy speech
five weeks ago in. Alma Ata, although he adopted a
less conciliatory posture toward the West.
Brezhnev praised the new Communist negotiating
proposals in Paris as containing "a good and fair
basis for ending the war and establishing a coali-
tion government." He added that they had the "full
approval and understanding of the Soviet govern-
ment." He tried to put the onus on Washington for
the next step, claiming that if the US "displays
reason, a political settlement in Vietnam might
make headway." Brezhnev's remarks gave no indi-
cation, however, that the Soviets actually think
that the new proposals will break the log jam in
Paris.
The Soviet party chief struck an unusually
defensive note in discussing the Soviet - West
German treaty. He defended it against unnamed,
critics "here and there" as an even-handed agree-
ment from which "all have gained equally." His
remarks seem aimed primarily at lending indirect
support to the Bonn government's attempts to coun-
ter domestic opposition to the treaty. Brezhnev
may also have intended these comments for the ear
of East German critics, and perhaps also for those
Soviets who retain misgivings. Although Brezhnev
had voiced an intent earlier in his talks to avoid
"repeating the same things" he has said in recent
speeches, he reiterated his appeal of just five
weeks ago for the pact's ratification.
(continued)
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Brezhnev's comments on the Middle East were
harsher than any by a Soviet leader in some time.
He extolled the efforts of the Soviet Union to
end the civil war in Jordan, which he claimed had
inflicted "no small harm" on the Arab cause, but
warned that "any foreign intervention in the events
in Jordan is absolutely inadmissible"--a declara-
tion seemingly aimed as much at Syria as at Israel
and the US. Brezhnev warned that in the event of
a new "imperialist" intervention in the Middle East
"one could not only burn one's fingers, but--who
knows--even lose an arm."
Brezhnev tried to rebut US complaints of
cease-fire violations along the Suez Canal, char-
acterizing the charges as an effort to frustrate
peace negotiations "behind a smokescreen of in-
vented accusations against the UAR." He also
scored US support for Israel, condemning with
special vigor "new consignments of offensive arms."
Brezhnev eulogized Nasir at some length, and ex-
pressed the hope that his successors will continue
his policies.
Brezhnev's strong endorsement of the UN pro-
vided another indication of Moscow's assessment
that the Soviet international. position is improving.
Brezhnev noted that UN actions reflect "the balance
of power between world states" and implied that the
socialist states and other like-minded countries
will increasingly be able to influPnne UN policies.
3 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The Six continue to
express great concern about the Mills Billy
fIn a communique issued at the EC Council meet-
ing last Tuesday, the Communities said that they
consider the pending US trade legislation to have
created a "very serious"' situation that must be
followed attentively. If the Mills Bill becomes
law, the communique stated, the EC "will not fail
to assert its rights." In addition, however, the
Council instructed a committee to search for con-
structive solutions to the problems the legislation
poses, not just forms of retaliation .
The Mills Bill offers the Communities an op-
portunity to return in kind the sort of criticism
the US has for some time been making against the
EC's restrictions on farm imports and its preferen-
tial trade agreements with other countries. For
example, at a meeting of the Council of the General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) this week,
the US stated its opposition to all such agreements
that. are inconsistent with GATT and said it may
lodge a formal complaint.]
RThe Mills Bill, preferences, and other trade
problems will be discussed on 15 and 16 October
when EC Commissioner Dahrendorf visits Washington.
The EC, US, UK, and Japan may meet a second time
in Geneva after that. The EC Council, however,
has postponed a decision on whether such talks are
desirable until it can assess the results of Dah-
'S sit.-
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ROMANIA-USSR: Bucharest and Moscow simulta-
neously ratified the new treaty of friendship, co-
operation, and mutual assistance on 30 September.
Speeches made on the occasion by Romanian leader
Ceausescu and Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko il-
lustrated the differing emphases the two sides
give to the key clauses of the treaty. The state-
ments were not antagonistic, and reflected the im-
proved atmosphere in relations between Moscow and
Bucharest since the treaty was signed on 7 July.
On 1 October the East Germans announced that For-
eign Minister Otto Winzer had concluded their first
mutual assistance treaty with Romania. Since the
Soviet treaty was signed, the Poles and Romanians
have also initialed a new bilateral pact, and the
Bulgarians and Romanians have agreed to si n their
treaty in November.
on o e has eliminated
a threat to his position by detaining the armed
forces commander. In a well-planned series of
moves, Obote not only placed Major General Idi
Amin in detention, but also sought to prevent any
serious trouble by arresting some of the general's
supporters and disbanding a unit loyal only to the
commander. The general's alleged involvement in
the murder of another high-ranking officer last
January may be used to justify the detention but
Obote was probably eager for an excuse to be rid
of Amin,. who was becoming increasingly active in
olit c
(continued)
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ECUADOR: Antigovernment violence is likely
next week in Guayaquil, the commercial center of
Ecuador, following the arbitrary dismissal of the
city's mayor and the prefect of the province.
Celebrations to mark the city's 150th anniversary
are scheduled to begin this weekend. Demonstra-
tions against the central government's removal of
these two popularly elected representatives could
occur at that time. The reaction of the regime
to criticism by these two regional politicians
has catapulated them into national prominence and
may coalesce political opponents of the regime who
have largely acquiesced in the 22 June takeover of
dictatorial Power by President Velasco.
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