CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017200040001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 24, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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MIA
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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
50
24 September 1970
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No. 0229/70
24 September 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JORDAN: Syrian troops have pulled out of the north.
Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Vietnamese Communist activity apparently
is increasing in Battambang Province. (Page 5)
USSR: Moscow expects the largest grain crop in its
history this year. (Page 6)
BULGARIA: Student exchange agreement signed with
the US. (Page 7)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Senior civilian bureaucrats are
returning to duty in central government organs.
(Page 8)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Coal production may reach an all-
time hig this year. (Page 9)
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LIBYA: Unrest in army units (Page 11)
BELGIUM: NATO burden-sharing (Page 12)
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: ICAO meeting (Page 12)
WEST GERMANY: Labor federation meetings (Page 13)
COLOMBIA: Rojas returns (Page 1,3)
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JORDAN: Current Situation
Janin
PLA A
bat.(alions
Strategic crossroads
capture by Jo dar;-
r--._ran tro ps
Ajiun 4
Nablus
I WEST/BANK
(Israeli ---
ccu
ied)
c
p
Yafo
amla ARam
llah
Jerich
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Syrian forces with-
drawlacross border
t0' ar'a~.
ti
Ram~ha
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I JORDAN: Syrian troops have pulled out of the
north, although Syrian-backed fedayeen units continue
to battle Jordanian forces.
Syrian forces
nave now withdrawn across the border; they remain
close enough to re-enter swiftly if their fedayeen
units are hard pressed, however.
The Syrians have been replaced in the Irbid area,
however, by the Syrian-backed Hittin Brigade of the
Palestine Liberation Army (PLA), under the command
of the Palestine Liberation Organization.
The Jordanians apparently did not assault the
Syrian positions in the Irbid-Ramtha area, but
brought artillery and tank fire to bear on them t
good effect, and also carried out air strikes. LI
0
Iraqi activity has been minimal, and seems to
be precautionary.
raq a promised not to let the Syrians through to
the Mafraq area. if Syria did
not move up reinforcements an it Iraq did not in-
tervene, Jordan could handle the
24 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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situation. Governor General Majali announced yes-,
terday that Jordanian troops captured the Ramtha-
Irbid-Mafraq crossroads, the key to the supply route
from Syria, and were in control of Zarqa.
Syrian withdrawal seems to have been only par-
tially due to lack of success in the fighting. Syria
was probably extremely nervous over the possibility
of US or Israeli intervention.
The Syrians may have realized, too, that they could--
not keep up the transparent fiction that their troops
were only Palestinian; by replacing regular troops
with a PLA unit, they may be hoping to legitimize
their intervention and still prevent an all-out vic-
tory against the fedayeen.
In Amman, meanwhile, the arm continued to con-
duct clearing operations.
the army has discovered 300 fedayeen strongpoints,
and has taken some 8,000 prisoners--a figure which
probably includes a large number of noncombatant
fedayeen sympathizers. Army operations yesterday
concentrated on a refugee camp north of the city
and on an area near the US Embassy.
the number of casualties appears to be muc
lower than press reports suggest.
An "agreement" was announced over Amman radio
yesterday morning by King Husyan and Salah Khalaf,
number two man in the PLO, who had been captured
by the army several days ago. As read by the King--
Khalaf's version was somewhat more pro-fedayeen--the
terms would represent virtually total victory for
the government: the fedayeen are to stay at the
border to fight the Israelis, while the army has
the right to be wherever it is needed; "on this
basis," the army will be ordered to take up its
"usual positions"--presumably outside the city--
while the fedayeen are to transfer their bases from
24 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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the towns and villages to the frontier; the PLO is
to function as the sole political and military rep-
resentative of the Palestinians; all laws and regu-
lations of the state are to apply in full to the
fedayeen. The King reaffirmed that he and the army
had no intention of liquidating the fedayeen move-
ment. There was no mention of a cease-fire.
According to press reports, the agreement was
rejected by Yasir Arafat and by Cairo officials of
the PLO, who claimed that Khalaf and three other
captured PLO leaders had no authority to enter into
such an agreement. All four have now been released
by the King.
A four-man conciliation committee sent to Amman
by Arab leaders returned to Cairo last night after
stopping off in Damascus to talk with Syrian Presi-
dent Atasi. They were accompanied by the four PLO
leaders released by the King. The Cairo press has
reported that the Arab kings and presidents resumed
their discussion last night and planned to meet again
today; Sudanese President Numayri, chairman of the
mediating committee, was quoted by the press as say-
ing that his delegation "blessed the four-point
agreement and appealed to both sides of the conflict
to cease hostilities." Inasmuch as the agreement
so totally support's King Husayn's position, its ap-
proval by the delegation is somewhat surprising.
There has been no official word on the hostages,
but was informed on 22
September by a "good source t at all were safe.
The source said that the hostages had been removed
from Amman before the outbreak of fighting and were
being held elsewhere in Jordan in groups of about
six, apparently under close guard by the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine. According
to press reports, the commandos have announced that
the captives are being held in the "liberated zone"
of north Jordan. The sources said th4t all of the
hostages were "believed" to be safe. (Map)
24 Sep 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Current Situation
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Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
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CAMBODIA: Vietnamese Communist activity ap-
parently is increasing in Battambang Province.
I Ithe Communists
have been infiltrating outlying areas of the hitherto
quiet province since early September, propagandizing
and requisitioning supplies. The government's pre-
occupation with defending Battambang city has facil-
itated the Communist effort. Communist forces have
been reported operating as close as three miles to
the railway town of Moung, on Route 5, and rumors
that they intend to attack the town soon have prompted
residents to flee. Thus far, however, the only sig-
nificant enemy attacks in the province have occurred
in an area between 20 and 30 miles northeast of Bat-
tambang city.
The government drive to take Tang Kouk village,
southeast of Kompong Thom, is still being slowed by
sporadic Communist harassing fire. The column has now
been reorganized into four task forces. Three of them,
one on Route 6 and one to either flank, are advancing
along an almost four-mile wide front. 25X1
(Map)
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USSR: Moscow expects to harvest the largest
grain crop in its history this year.
Soviet Minister of Agriculture V. Matskevitch
has predicted a harvest of "about 180 million tons
of grain." He hedged his forecast with the state-
ment that the weather during the next two weeks
of the harvest "will be critical" to the final
results. Less than 80 percent of the total grain
crop had been threshed by mid-September, compared
with about 90 percent usually threshed by that
date. An early onset of winter weather, there-
fore, could result in major harvest losses. Har-
vesting weather has improved in the past week,
however, and the outlook is for continued favor-
able weather throughout this week.
A grain harvest of 180 million tons would
probably produce a net usable output of 145-150
million tons, 10-15 percent above the average
level achieved in 1966-69. A crop of this size
would be adequate to maintain current levels of
grain reserves, to meet domestic needs for high-
quality bread, and to relieve somewhat the meat
shortage through the allocation of more grain to
feed livestock. Moreover, a bumper crop of food
grains should permit the Soviets to continue
their role as a major supplier of grain to Eastern
Europe, where a poor harvest is expected, and to
clients in Asia and Africa.
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BULGARIA: After long negotiations, the
Internati nal Research and Exchanges Board (IREX),
partially funded by the Ford Foundation, has con-
cluded an agreement with Bulgaria, the last East
European country having diplomatic relations with
the US to sign such an accord.
The agreement, signed on 22 September by
Bulgaria's Committee for Friendship and Cultural
Relations with Foreign Countries, provides for
reciprocal exchanges of postgraduate students
and scholars with the US for periods up to one
year during the present and the following two
academic years. The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
will nominate most of the Bulgarian participants--
a measure of Bulgaria's primary interest in
greater exposure to Western scientific and tech-
nical education and expertise.
IREX, the successor to previous US exchange
programs, reached agreements with the other East
European countries in 1968. Bulgaria's reluctance
to sign stemmed largely from the government's
fear of the consequences of allowing its materi-
ally deprived people to come into increased con-
tact with affluent Westerners.
Although signature of the IREX program
represents a glimmer of improvement in US-Bulgarian
relations, it probably does not foreshadow signi-
ficant movement. Bulgaria has consistently in-
sisted that improvement in cultural relations--
a major target of US policy with respect to Sofia--
must be accompanied by substantial gains in trade
relations. The Bulgarians may cite the IREX
agreement, even though it is unofficial in nature,
to argue that it is now Washington's turn to be
more forthcoming in the economic area.
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COMMUNIST CHINA: The growing number of.senior
civilian bureaucrats who are returning to duty is
another indication of Peking's steady progress in
normalizing the staffing of central government
organs.
Within the past week Peking has called atten-
tion to the renewed activities of three former vice
ministers in the textile, agricultural machinery,
and petroleum ministries, all of whom were in eclipse
during the Cultural Revolution. Over the past few
months approximately a dozen other veteran officials
have been openly identified in their former, or sim-
ilar, positions in either domestic or foreign af-
fairs posts, and it seems likely that a process of
turning back many day-to-day operational responsi-
bilities to civilian experts is well under way.
This may also be true at the lower echelons
because several recently received letters have in-
dicated that a number of administrative and profes-
sional functionaries who had been shipped off to
the rural areas for labor reform are now being re-
called by Peking because of "work requirements."
At the top, however, most of China's ministries
are still run by military commissions which assumed
control during the Cultural Revolution. The crucial
question as to whether military or civilian offi-
cials will continue to head up the ministries prob-
ably remains a subject of debate in regime councils,
and the results are not likely to be known until
Peking decides to convene the long-delayed National
People's Congress.
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COMMUNIST CHINA: Coal production may reach
an all-time High t is year.
The Chinese news service claimed that coal
output increased by 24 percent in the first eight
months of 1970 over the same period of 1969. if
this rate of increase continues for the remainder
of the year, production in 1970 could surpass the
estimated 300 million tons produced in the peak
year of 1959. More than 90 percent of the energy
used by industry in China is derived from coal,
and a sustained recovery of production would in-
dicate a general rise in industrial production.
Press reports credit the increase in coal
output to the fuller use of large mines and the
re-emergence of production at small mines. Ex-
ports of coking coal remain at a very low level
and local coal shortages still persist. The
Chinese ascribe these shortages to a greatly
increased demand. Other evidence suggests as
the reason a sizable growth of major coal-consuming
sectors, such as iron and steel, chemical, and
electric power.
The quality of the coal, however, probably
has deteriorated. The Chinese are again mining
low-grade deposits south of the Yangtze and have
built small mines throughout the country in their
drive for regional self-sufficiency. The quality
of coal from these mines is poor, and primitive
accounting practices could lead to exaggeration
of production claims. There is no evidence,
moreover, that coal cleaning capacity at large
mines has increased commensurate with the claimed
growth in production. Also, the Chinese admit
that normal maintenance and development practices
have been disregarded in some mines in order to
expand production, which could affect lon -term
growth of the industry.
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NOTES
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LIBYA: Unrest among Libyan e
province of C renaica persists.
officers and men are-venting
their discontent over government policies that they
say lead to "adventurism abroad and economic stag-
nation at home." Rumors of a coup attempt have also
been circulating. Leaders of the regime, including
Prime Minister Qaddafi, reportedly spent much of the
early part of September mending fences in the Ben-
ghazi area, a stronghold of antigovernment feeling
where as many as 80 army, police, and civilian per-
sonnel have recently been arrested.
(continued)
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BELGIUM: Preliminary soundings in Brussels
indicate a strong Belgian desire to avoid as long
as possible involvement in NATO burden-sharing
plans. Stressing the high cost of maintaining Bel-
gium's NATO forces in Germany, Finance Minister
Snoy last week professed to Secretary Kennedy that
he knew little about the burden-sharing problem.
An adviser of Prime Minister Eyskens also indicated
that the subject has not yet been discussed in the
cabinet. Belgium's reluctance to spend for defense
is reflected in the fact that its military budgets
in recent years have been the equivalent of less
than three percent of GNP, one of the smallest pro-
portions among the NATO countries. Belgium has also
been whittling down the size of its NATO force in
the last two years.
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: The US made no head-
way with its antihijacking proposal at a Tuesday
meeting in Paris with eight Western countries that
also are members of the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) Council. These Western states
continued to emphasize the adverse effect for their
airlines of an air services boycott of countries
harboring aerial hijackers who engage in interna-
tional blackmail. The French refused to attend the
meeting, and their absence--plus the very negative
attitude of West Germany--obviously affected the
willingness of the other participants to support the
US proposal. If the US proposal is rejected when
the council resumes next Tuesday, Canada is likely
to promote its alternative initiative--a call for
ICAO members to go through the time-consuming process
of amendin bilateral air agreements r hijack
problems.
(continued)
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WEST GERZiANY: Top officials of the German La-
bor Federation DGB) will hold a series of meetings
of their,organization--and with European Community
and Belgian organs--in Brussels on 5-7 October. The
purpose of these unprecedented meetings in Brussels
is to underscore the DGB's fundamental commitment
to Western Europe and the further building of the
European Community. This move, doubtless stimulated
in part by the Bonn government, also suggests the
latter' s awareness of a need to demonstrate that it
is not neglecting Western Europe as it continues its
efforts to normalize relations with the East. The
opposition Christian Democrats have recently been
calling for renewed emphasis on Bonn's West European
ties as a counterbalance to Chancellor Brandt's
Ostpolitik.
COLOMBIA: Defeated presidential candidate
Rojas Pinilla returned to Bogota without fanfare
on 21 September after a two-and-a-half month absence
for medical treatment in the US. Although Rojas is
expected to remain under medical care for some time,
his presence in the country will serve to reunify
his National Popular Alliance (ANAPO), which has
suffered serious divisions recently. Rojas prob-
ably will urge ANAPO to take a harsh line against
the Pastrana government.
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