CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A016100030001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 24, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
511
24 April 1970
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No. 0098/70
24 April 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Ja2an: The decline of the Socialist Party will weaken
leftist opposition to the security treaty. (Page 1)
Malaysia: The Communists have recently demonstrated
their ability to harass the government. (Page 2)
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European Communities: Prospects continue to improve
that negotiations with the UK will open on schedule.
(Page 4)
Yugoslavia-USSR: Belgrade will ask the Soviets to
reduce their propaganda activity. (Page 5)
Cuba: Castro has delivered his first major foreign
policy statement in some time. (Page 6)
Laos: Military situation quiet (Page 8)
Trinidad: Security improving (Page 8)
Colombia: Situation quiet (Page 8)
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South Africa: Election results (Page 9)
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122ans The inability of the Japan Socialist
Party to pull out of its decline as a political
force will further weaken leftist opposition to the
US-Japan Security Treaty,
At the party?s national convention this week,
moderate Socialists again failed to dislodge the
party's ideologically hidebound leadership, which
has done little to broaden the appeal of the party.
The Socialists, who remain the largest opposition
party despite their heavy losses in last December?s
elections, emerged from the convention with the
split: between the old-style Marxists and the moder-
ates wider and more bitter than ever.
The Socialists were. so occupied with their
leadership fight and repelling an invasion of radi-
cal students that the--1970 antitreaty "struggle"
question was nearly overlooked. Indications from
the Communists and the Sohyo labor federation that
their participation in the "struggle" will be lim~
ited suggest strongly that the;tr.eaty issue is no
longer an effective rallying point for the tradi-
tional left,
Some Japanese political observers argue that
only a split in the party and a realignment of the
moderate left can save the Socialists. Unless the
Socialists, who are already burdened with a massive
financial debt, can restructure their organization,
it seems inevitable that they will continue to lose
electoral support, In this event the Buddhist-
based Komeito might eventually move into position
as the second major force in Japanese politics,
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Malaysia: Recent terrorist incidents reflect
a continuing Communist capability for harassing the
Malaysian Government.
On 20 April, a 30-man unit of the Thai-based
Malaysian Communists killed seven of the nine mem-
bers of a government patrol in an ambush just inside
Malaysia. This clash is the most serious since last
December, when the terrorists blew up a railroad
bridge in northern Malaysia.
The government has played down the incident,
and one official claimed that the security forces
foiled a Communist plan to establish bridgeheads on
the Malaysian side of the border. At the same time,
the government has been publicizing its "success"
in its antiterrorist campaign in Sarawak, where it
claims some 58 terrorists have been killed.
Communist Party capabilities within Malaysia
were demonstrated yesterday when a number of booby
traps attached to Communist flags were set off in
various parts of the country. One such bomb was
planted in Singapore as well. These incidents co-
incide with the 40th anniversary of the Malayan
Communist Party. The Communists' success in carry-
ing out such actions suggests that the party has at
least some organization in existence, although Com-
munist movements and Communist-oriented groups have
been largely suppressed both in Malaysia and Sing-
apore. Such minor Communist harassment will prob-
ably remain a problem for some time to come.
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European Communities: Prospects continue to
improve that negotiations with Britain and the other
applicants for membership will open on schedule this
June or July.
A vital preliminary step was taken this week
when the Council of Ministers formally adopted the
EC financing regulations that were drafted in Janu-
ary. The French had made it clear that they would
not agree to the opening of membership negotiations
until the Council had taken this action. The regu-
lations must now be ratified by the parliaments of
the EC's member states.
Recent conversations of UK Minister for Euro-
pean Affairs Thomson in Bonn and Paris have also
shown that negotiations will most probably start on
schedule. In Bonn, Foreign Minister Scheel shared
Thomson's hope that a ceremonial opening session
could be held in June with substantive talks begin-
ning in July. In Paris, Foreign Minister Schumann
said that the sooner negotiations begin the better,
but he predicted that the ceremonial opening would
not occur before July.
Schumann and Scheel both emphasized the work
the EC still must do to develop a common negotiating
position before meeting with the British. The
Council did move forward at its recent meeting by
adopting three papers dealing with the transition
period for the British, with the Coal and Steel
Community, and with economic and monetary union.
Both the permanent representatives and the Council
will be grappling with the remaining elements of the
common position at their meetings between now and
the opening of negotiations.
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Yugoslavia-USSR: Belgrade has instructed its
embassy in Moscow to ask that the Soviets sharply
curb their propaganda activities in Yugoslavia.
The Yugoslavs decided to make the demarche,
Iafter a careful study revealed the "en-
ormous operation" the Soviets have mounted, sending
people into "almost every village, showing films
and passing out books."
Since Yugo-
Tv_La has neither the funds nor the interest in
running such a campaign in the Soviet Union, Mos-
cow's program accordingly should be scaled down.
Looking beyond the diplomatic phraseology of
the request, two events early this year may be in-
dicative of the activity that led directly to the
Yugoslav action. In early February the influential
Belgrade daily Politika accused the Soviet Embassy
in Belgrade of meddling in Yugoslav internal af-
fairs by reprinting in the embassy bulletin Soviet
press attacks on Politika's Moscow correspondent.
Later that month a retired Soviet Army officer,
Colonel Nikola Grujic, a Yugoslav by birth, was
arrested in Yugoslavia for making statements against
the regime and was given 24 hours to leave the
country. The Yugoslav press, in publicizing this
incident, suggests that the Gruiic case is not iso-
lated.
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Cuba: Fidel Castro has delivered his first
major statement on foreign policy in some time.
In a speech primarily devoted to an observance
of Lenin's birth centennial, Castro said he wanted
to clarify Havana's position on several issues. He
reaffirmed his country's revolutionary spirit and
stated that "Cuba will never deny support to a rev-
olutionary movement." He said that Cuba had sup-
ported "phonies" in the past, but that in the fu-
ture "that type of pseudorevolutionary can expect
no aid from Cuba." Presumably Castro was referring
to failures such as that of Venezuela's Douglas
Bravo to sustain his guerrilla movement.
Several of his remarks involved the US, but
their tone was relatively moderate. He again ac-
cused Washington of "hatching" plots against his
government, but seemed more moderate in his accusa-
tions against the US than earlier this week. Refer-
ring to the current anti-Castro operation in east-
ern Cuba, he stated that only four members of the
group remained and that they would be eliminated
within the next few days.
Castro also referred to two specific issues
currently receiving much international attention--
hijacking and kidnaping. He stated that Cuba had
promulgated a hijacking law and that if the US
wanted to solve this matter, it must "abide by the
letter of the law--article by article, without re-
moving a single comma...." This law would require
full reciprocity, including the return of refugees
who steal boats to escape to the US. As to the
kidnaping, Castro said he has had no trouble with
such incidents in Havana and implicitly washed his
hands of the problem,
Castro also restated his rejection of the
Organization of American States, declaring that
"Cuba will return to the OAS the day on which it
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throws out the United States...." Castro said he
appreciated the recent friendly statements and ac-
tions by some Latin American governments. He added
that if any Latin American country were willing to
repudiate the sanctions of the OAS and wished to
establish relations with Cuba, he would be willing
to reciprocate with relations similar to those Cuba
has with Mexico.
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NOTES
Laos: The Communists continue to maneuver in
the Long Tieng area but the military situation there
remains quiet, In recent days the Communists have
launched several unsuccessful attacks against Tha
Tam Bleung, an important blocking position ten miles
to the north, The attacks on the outpost presumably
are aimed at forestalling government attempts to
clear enemy forces from nearby staging areas.
C Trinidad: The government seems more confident
of its position, and events may be moving toward a
negotiated settlement of the military rebellion.
Although there has been no official word on the
progress or details of talks to end the mutiny,
spokesmen from both sides have struck a moderate
tone? The government yesterday arrested Geddes
Granger,. the last of the important black power rad-
icals still at large and the leader of the recent
demonstrations. Police have been increasingly suc-
cessful in maintaining order. Yesterday the curfew
in force in the capital was extended to the entire
country. The general situation, however, remains
unsettled.
Colombia: The country has remained tranquil
for the past two days, but serious disturbances could
occur in the cities following the release of final
election returns on Sunday, These are virtually cer-
tain to confirm the election of National Front can-
didate Misael Pastranao
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South Africa: Prime Minister Vorster?s ruling
National Party achieved its primary objective in
Wednesday?s parliamentary election by crushing the
challenge from the new ultraconservative Afrikaner
party. With returns almost complete, the National-
ists have won a comfortable, but slightly reduced,
majority in parliament, More important to Vorster,
the ultraconservatives, who had bolted the National
Party last fall because they believed it was under-.
mining apartheid, failed to win any seats at all,
The United Party, the official opposition composed
mainly of English-speaking whites, benefited from
the split in Afrikaner ranks by picking up at least
seven seats. It is in no position to challenge the
entrenched Nationalists, however.
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Secret
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