CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014600010001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 19, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5t
State Dept. review completed 19 September 1969
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No. 0225/69
19 September 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: The new North Vietnamese leaders plan no
change in the economy of force tactics. (Page 1)
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USSR - Communist China: Moscow is portraying the
Kosygin-Chou talks as successful. (Page 4)
East Germany: Pankow has responded to another West
German invitation for talks on technical matters.
(Page 5)
France: The government is moving to counter labor
strikes and political attacks. (Page 6)
Peru: The wage settlement for the miners may have
ar-reaching consequences. (Page 7)
European Communities: The Council of Ministers has
planned a summit conference. (Page 8)
Nigeria: Disaffection (Page 9)
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C Vietnam: There is new evidence that the Com-
munists intend to continue the war with the economy
of force tactics adopted during the past year.
The new leadership in Hanoi endorsed this ap-
proach in the army daily of 17 September, telling
the army that combat training, political indoctrina-
tion, and maintenance procedures must be improved
and reserve forces strengthened in preparation for
additional and long-term support for the war in the
South.
The same message is being disseminated to
southern combatants in the form of Resolution 9 of
the party headquarters in the South. The resolution
was probably issued sometime during the summer and
is intended as a guide for at least the remainder
of 1969 and probably through early 1970. It calls
for a buildup in guerrilla and local force strengths,
the destruction of Saigon's administrative apparatus,
and attacks against US bases in an effort to keep
casualties high.
In a clear departure from previous references
to "general offensives" and complete military victory,
Resolution 9 places its greatest emphasis on making
the Communist presence felt in rural areas and on low
key but persistent military action. The document
also prepares Communist cadres in the South for a
possible political settlement by talking openly
about negotiations, political solutions, coalitions,
and cease-fires.
US forces fought another sharp battle near the
Demilitarized Zone on 17 September, and South Viet-
namese forces are encounterin stiff opposition in
several areas in the delta.
19 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR - Communist China: The Soviets are seeking
to portray the recent Kosygin - Chou En-lai meeting
as a success.
Western press sources in Moscow are reporting
various assertions that the Chinese agreed to hold
high-level border talks with the Soviets, or that
Moscow is maintaining its stand-down in polemics
until the Chinese reply to a proposal for talks. In
addition, Soviet sources are reported to be claiming
that border incidents have ceased since the meeting.
If Peking has not agreed to talks on the border
problem, it is possible that Moscow is seeking to
force China's hand by calling attention to Soviet
willingness to negotiate. Kosygin undoubtedly re-
iterated Moscow's desire for border talks during his
discussion with Chou. There has been no Chinese
reaction to the meeting, however, other than the
terse communique on 11 September. Peking's polemics
against Moscow have continued.
In any case, Moscow obviously intends that the
meeting be seen as a dramatic example of the Soviet
desire to exhaust all possibilities for peaceful
discussions with Peking. Moscow probably reasons
that by leaking of reports that Kosygin again ap-
pealed for talks it can only enhance the Soviet
image, whether or not Peking responds.
19 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C East Germany: Pankow has responded to another
long-standing West German invitation for talks on
technical matters.
West German postal authorities are expected to
meet with their East German counterparts in East
Berlin today to discuss payment from Bonn for postal
services for the past three years. The East Germans
have asked that neither side mention West Berlin ac-
counts, although they will be willing to include
them.
The East German proposal for talks was received
in Bonn on Wednesday, the day after the two sides
met cordially and settled a minor transportation
question. The West Germans hope that this meeting
will be the first in a series intended to resolve
numerous transport problems.
East Germany's more forthcoming attitude prob-
ably is due to Moscow, which itself has responded
positively to demarches from Bonn and the Western
Allies. The East Germans may share the Soviets'
hopes that such gestures could influence the out-
come of the West German elections in favor of the
Social Democrats.
The East Germans stand to gain considerably
from the talks. An East German source recently
confided to a US diplomat that his government was
only interested in the favorable economic aspects
of such talks and those who thought otherwise "were
living in the clouds." F 25X1
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France: The government is moving aggressively
to counter spreading strikes and sharpened Communist
political attacks.
Both President Pompidou and Premier Chaban-
Delmas, reacting to a menacing speech by Communist
labor boss Georges Seguy, have issued strong warn-
ings that "law and republican order" will be main-
tained. There is some evidence that the Communists
are backing away from Seguy's militant posture.
Party leaders are aware that their efforts to gain
political respectability could be jeopardized if the
government hammers away at the idea that they are an
irresponsible minority bent on sabotaging economic
reform.
To deal with unrest among workers and prevent
current strikes over working conditions from spread-
ing, the government has announced its readiness to
discuss a range of economic problems. The settle-
ment yesterday of the nationwide railroad strike may
improve the psychological climate and set a prece-
dent for meeting other labor demands. The govern-
ment is limited on what it can concede on wages,
however, if its recent austerity measures are to be
effective.
The massive vote of confidence in the National
Assembly this week for Chaban-Delmas' economic and
social program makes it evident that, for the pres-
ent, the Gaullist majority is united behind the gov-
ernment. A number of orthodox and left-wing Gaul-
lists remain embittered and dissatisfied, however,
and Pompidou will have to move carefully to preserve
parliamentary cohesion.
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Peru: President Velasco has overruled his
labor minister in a move which could have far-reach-
ing political and economic consequences.
Velasco ordered Labor Minister Chamot to grant
an additional wage increase of about two percent
following a clash between the striking miners and
national police on Monday. Chamot had previously
declared the strike illegal. It was led by two
Communist-controlled unions against the US-owned
Cerro de Pasco Mining Company. Twelve non-Communist
unions at other company installations had already
accepted an 11 1/2 percent increase. Velasco's ac-
tion will discredit the leaders of these unions and
probably increase the prestige of the Communist na-
tional labor confederation which has been making
rapid gains in Peruvian labor, probably with the
help of Soviet money.
The President may have ordered the wage increase
to avoid further clashes at a time when he is seeking
to build a political base among peasants and workers.
US Embassy contacts believe, however, that leftist
advisers have convinced Velasco that Chamot has
aligned himself with labor unions dominated by APRA,
the army's traditional political foe, and that Chamot
is pro - big business in his labor policies. At any
rate, the labor minister has been discredited and may
find himself overruled on other matters, such as rec-
ognition of the Communist labor confederation, and
perhaps even forced out of the cabinet.
Velasco's capitulation to the strikers' demands
means that the final settlement will be well over
the ten percent ceiling previously in effect for
wage agreements. This could set off more strikes if
other unions try to benefit from the relaxation of
guidelines, which in turn might generate some infla-
tion. In addition, this may cause companies to take
another look at their plans to invest in Peru.
19 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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European Communities., The Council of Ministers
has planned a summit conference but produced no
progress on Community enlargement.
The Six agreed to hold a summit at The Hague
on 17-18 November, but they may not all have the
same sort of meeting in mind. The French are pleased
that there will be no set agenda and have been speak-
ing of the conference as a forum for general discus-
sion of European problems. West Germany's Foreign
Minister Brandt, while conceding that discussion of
some points will not be detailed, has predicted that
the relation between the consolidation and the ex-
pansion of the Communities will be a primary topic.
The French position on Community enlargement
is still unclear. While they are now willing to dis-
cuss enlargement with their EC partners, they have
not agreed to set a date for opening negotiations
with the UK. Some of the old-line Gaullists in the
government remain adamantly opposed to British en-
try, and Pompidou's own long-term views on enlarge-
ment are not known.
Some of France's partners may make a sustained
effort at the summit to bring the French to accept
a specific date for opening negotiations with the
British, but it is not clear how hard they would be
willing to push the French on this issue. The Ital-
ians continue to talk about holding out on the agri-
cultural financing issue if the French will not agree
to a commitment on negotiations.
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Nigeria: There is still no sign of an early
breakthrough in the civil war. The continued stale-
mate is increasing the possibility of a move against
federal leader General Gowon by military officers
who believe they can win the war. The removal of
Gowon would place great strains on the federation,
because it would be extremely difficult to find a
successor acceptable to the disparate groups in the
federation. 25X1
19 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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