CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014500060001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 10, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
50)
10 September 1.969
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No. 0217/69
10 September 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Laos: Government forces are cutting deeper into
Communist territory. (Page 3)
West Germany: The Christian Democrats appear to
have an edge as the election approaches. (Page 4)
Japan: Elections may be timed to take advantage
of any agreement on the return of Okinawa. (Page 5)
Arab States: A fedayeen organization intends to in--
crease its terrorism abroad. (Page 6)
Libya: The new cabinet may be little more than a
front for the military junta. (Page 7)
Tunisia: The cabinet reshuffle is in line with re-
cent changes in economic policy. (Page 8)
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Bolivia: The recent bombings may be use as a p e?-
text for a military coup. (Page 10)
Chile: Leftists are planning a large rally. (Page 11)
Ecuador: Emotions are running high over the sky-
jacking of two air force planes. (Page 12)
Uruguay: A prominent Uruguayan businessman has been
kidnaped. (Page 13)
Honduras: Hurricane Francelia has compounded the
country's economic problems. (Page 14)
International Trade: Wheat prices (Page 15)
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C Vietnam: The cease-fire has been marred by
only a few minor enemy-initiated incidents. Intel-
ligence reflects enemy attack preparations, however,
and a resumption of fighting early on 11 September
appears likely.
The new regime in Hanoi is laying great stress
on continuity of policy, and the unity of the col-
lective leadership.
These were the principle themes in Ho Chi
Minh's will and the party central committee's
eulogy, both of which were read on 9 September by
party first secretary Le Duan. These themes have
been emphasized repeatedly in official speeches,
editorials, and communiques since Ho's death.
Duan's eulogy seemed to give continuation of
the struggle in the South top priority for North
Vietnam. Ho's will was less clear on priorities,
but it included an exhortation that the fight in
the South must be carried on until final victory.
I
10 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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LAOS: Government Forces are Cutting into Communist Areas
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Laos.- Government forces are cutting deeper
into Communist territory in the north, while in
the south they have recently captured an important
town protecting the enemy's infiltration corridor
to South Vietnam.
Vang Pao's troops have occupied almost all of
the Plaine des Jarres and advanced elements are now
on the outskirts of Khang Khay, the military and
administrative headquarters for Pathet Lao and dis-
sident neutralist forces in Xieng Khouang Province..
A guerrilla company has captured Phong Savan air-
field. Because of their political sensitivity,
Phong Savan and Khang Khay have been heretofore
off limits to both air and ground assault.
Pathet Lao troops are pulling out ot e
Khang K hay area, and the town itself may fall to
guerrillas by default. Vang Pao has also deployed
'three battalions south of the Plaine to retake
Xieng Khouangville.
In south Laos, meanwhile, guerrilla troops
have occupied Muong Phine, a long-held Communist
town on the edge of the infiltration corridor.
They apparently hope to push farther eastward into
the Tchepone area, a key North Vietnamese logistic
and command base center. The capture of Muong
Phine is the government's deepest penetration into
the supply corridor in several years. Although
bad weather may forestall an immediate enemy move,
the Communists are almost certain to react sharply
to these temporary inroads. The enemy response
is not likely to be confined to the Muona Phine
area.
10 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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West Germany: The Christian Democrats appear
to ho d the advantage over the Social Democrats as
the election approaches.
Major independent polling organizations have
held to their agreement not to publish their find-
ings prior to the 28 September balloting. Private
party polls as reported in the press, however, have
given the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) an edge
in the range of two to five percent over the Social
Democratic Party (SPD).
The CDU has beaten out the SPD in the five pre-
vious parliamentary elections. In 1965 the Chris-
tian Democrats got 47.6 percent and the Social Dem-
ocrats 39.3 percent. Campaigners for both parties
in the current campaign appear to be operating on
the assumption that the SPD may have narrowed but
not overcome the CDU advantage.
The hopes of the SPD depend on the extent to
which it can woo traditional CDU voters among such
groups as Catholics, women, and the prosperous mid-
dle class. The CDU is banking on the maintenance
of past voting patterns, as well as on the great
popularity of Kiesinger.
Both parties are striking the theme of "secur-
ity" with the debate centering on which can better
preserve prosperity and political stability and
provide for defense. Both are exercising some de-
gree of restraint so as not to endanger prospects
for a continuation of the grand coalition.
The major parties are expending a large por-
tion of their energies in combating the rightist
National Democratic Party (NPD). They are taking
seriously NPD claims that it will win a voice in
the next parliament., even though polls show the NPD
below the five percent required for entry into the
Bundestag.
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Japan: Prime Minister Sato's domestic politi-
cal strategy calls for general elections soon after
agreement is. reached with the US on the return of
Okinawa.
In a recent press conference, Sato hinted
broadly at the possibility of Diet dissolution in
December. This would be followed by a general
election in January seeking a new mandate for Sato
and his Liberal Democratic Party on the basis of
the Okinawan settlement. Government leaders now
apparently believe that formal exclusion of nuclear
weapons from Okinawa is the most important point at
issue and that the complicated and sensitive matter
of special uses of the US bases can be worked out to
the satisfaction of both sides.
Barring a breakdown in the negotiations on
Okinawa, Sato's party may make some slight gains in
the next election. The Buddhist-based Komeito could
make substantial gains at the expense of the Japan
Socialist Party, which it eventually aspires to re-
place as the second largest party.
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C Arab States: An extremist Arab fedayeen or-
ganization has reiterated its intent to mount an
"all out, no holds barred" campaign of terrorism
against Israeli and "imperialist" facilities out-
side the Middle East.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Pal-
estine (PFLP) has already bombed Tapline, hijacked
a US TWA aircraft, attacked three El Al aircraft,
and carried out the recent rash of bombings of
Israeli embassies and airline offices in Europe.
It has now vowed that "it will not be responsible
for the lives of tourists and foreigners, regardless
of nationality, who use Israeli means of transpor-
tation."
The PFLP's statement comes in the wake of
rising Arab tensions over the burning of the al-
Agsa mosque and the delivery of US Phantom aircraft
to Israel. The group's objective clearly is to
attempt to force the US and other Western countries
to press Israel into withdrawing from the occupied
Arab territories. F77 I
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Libya; The newly named cabinet may be little
more than a front for the military junta.
The nine members of the predominantly civilian
cabinet headed by Mahmud Sulayman Al Maghribi were
announced by the military on Monday. A number of
the seven civilians are known to have been associated
with various dissident, antimonarchical groups.
At least two of them were recently released from
prison where they were being held for acts against
the old regime. The key posts of defense and in-
terior are held by alleged members of the army's
Revolutionary Command Council.
a y
appointed the cabinet both because i wanted a fa-
cade and because the young officers who engineered
the coup do not have either the knowledge or ex-
perience to administer the bureaucratic machinery
of government.
The civilian ministers may attempt to influence
the junta, but they are unlikely to be able to sway
it on matters considered of vital interest to be
decided by the military a.lone..
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Tunisia: President Bourguiba's cabinet re-
shuffle is in line with the recent retrenchment in
economic policy.
The chief loser in the realignment,, announced
on 8 September, is socialist-oriented Ahmed Ben
Salah? who was stripped of the key planning and
development portfolios he had held since 1961.
He retains only the secretariat of state for educa-
tion, which he took over last year as an additional
duty.
Some of the policies pressed by Ben Salah have
drawn heavy criticism, particularly those that en-
visage the organization of all agriculture into
cooperatives. The acceleration of the cooperative
program late last year was highly unpopular and met
with some active resistance. The program also suf-
fered from a shortage of funds and trained personnel.
Bourguiba, although himself an advocate of the co-
operative concept, ordered a retrenchment. Last
week, measures were announced that will leave some
types of agriculture in private hands, return some
farms to private management, and generally slow the
pace of the program in areas where it will still
go forward.
The cabinet reshuffle gives added responsibil-
ity to Bahi Ladgham? secretary of state for the
presidency. Ladgham, already the government's
second-ranking official, will now oversee the co-
ordination and im lementation of economic programs.
10 Sep 69
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Bolivia: A series of terrorist bombings may
be used as a partial pretext for a military over-
throw of the four-month-old government of President
Siles.
The hit-and-run dynamite attacks which began
on 6 September and continued into 8 September came
only a few days after a clandestine broadcast made
by someone claiming to be "Inti" Peredo, a member
of the "Che" Guevara guerrilla band. Peredo an-
nounced that the pro-Castro Army of National Liber-
ation (ELN) would resume guerrilla activity when the
time was appropriate. ELN leaders may consider that
the unsettled pre-election political atmosphere is
an appropriate time for urban terrorism to soften
up the government prior to a full-scale resumption
of guerrilla warfare. Government officials are as-
cribing the attacks to the ELN or to those support-
ing its program.
Whatever the objectives of the attacks or the
identity of the persons responsible, the uncertain
atmosphere generated by the bombings may be used by
the politically ambitious armed forces commander
General Ovando to justify a move to depose Siles.
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Chile: Leftists are planning a large rally
on 11 September to call for the complete national-
ization of the copper industry.
This meeting would coincide with the end of
an "anti-imperialist" youth march from Valparaiso
that began on 6 September. The Communists, who are
playing a major role in planning the rally, are
hoping for a turnout of 30,000, but the actual at-
tendance probably will be lower.
The government originally refused permission
for the march but relented after receiving assur-
ances from the organizers that no violence would be
permitted. The minister of interior commented to
a US Embassy official that youth needed "outlets"
and that the Communists could be counted on to be
"responsible" in this kind of matter.
Some marchers reportedly hope to undertake dem-
onstrations against US Government offices. Security
forces can be expected to be on watch in an effort.
to prevent such action.
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Ecuador: Emotions are running high over the
skyjacking of two air force planes to Cuba on 6 Sep-
tember and the murder of one of the copilots.
Outraged public and official reaction appears
ready to push the issue before the UN Security Coun-
cil. In a public report on the incident, the minis-
ter of defense said that Ecuador intends to bring
this "monstrous crime" before the UN. Although
President Velasco's statements have been more tem-
perate, he has demanded that the 13 air pirates be
returned from Cuba.
The military's intention to seek revenge for
this humiliation apparently meets with the approval
of both the country's leadership and the public.
The search for revenge is likely I I
eate further
violence.
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Uruguay: A prominent Uruguayan banker and
newspaper publisher was kidnaped yesterday.
The Uruguayan, Gaetano Pellegrini, was a mem-
ber of a committee studying Uruguay's current strike
of bank workers, now into its third month. He has
taken a strong position against the strikers in the
committee, and his paper is progovernment. By kid-
naping him, the abductors may believe they are both
showing their contempt of the government and their
support for the bank workers.
The kidnaping was a well planned, smoothly run
operation, reminiscent of the abduction last year
of a top Uruguayan Government official by the left-
ist extremist Tupamaros group. The Tupamaros, as
distinct from other would-be terrorist organizations
in Montevideo, are well disciplined. If Pellegrini
is in Tupamaros hands, there is a reasonable chance
that they intend to use him for propaganda purposes
and then release him unharmed. No ransom note of
the type used in the Brazilian kidnaping of Ambas-
sador Elbrick has been found.
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Honduras: Crop damage caused by Hurricane
Francelia has seriously compounded the economic
problems caused by the conflict with El Salvador.
Preliminary assessments indicate that the eco-
nomic damage caused by the hurricane exceeds that
caused by the war. Hardest hit have been the banana
and sugar crops, which together account for more
than one half of the country's foreign exchange
earnings and are an important source of government
revenues. The government is already burdened by
the need to expend scarce resources for relief and
rehabilitation programs for persons displaced by
the fighting.
The government has thus far refused to restore
economic relations with El Salvador. It has not,
however, been able to find new markets for products
that formerly were sold there. The government seems
to be banking on US action to increase the Honduran
meat and sugar quota and on US support in the Inter-
national Coffee Organization for a coffee quota in-
crease.
10 Sep 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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International Trade: Brisk price competition
appears to have slowed as the major wheat exporting
countries engage in consultations to restore some
order to the international wheat market. Several
technical-level discussions have taken place during
the past week, and more are likely before the end
of the month. The US has called for a meeting of
senior policy officials in London on 6 October,
and Canada and Australia have agreed to attend. The
European Communities' primary wheat negotiator has
said that while he has no objection in principle to
the London meeting, he wishes to reserve his posi-
tion until he reviews the results of the technical-
level discussions.
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