CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014400100001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 29, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 29, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
29 August 1969
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0207/69
29 August 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR - Communist China: Moscow is seeking support
for its efforts to isolate Peking. (Page 2)
Japan: The government will probably not sign the
nonproliferation treaty in the near future. (Page 4)
Israel: More settlements are to be established in
the occupied territories. (Page 5)
India: Open conflict in the ruling Congress Party
has subsided. (Page 6)
Malaysia: The authorities are preparing for demon-
strations by Malay extremists. (Page 7)
USSR-Mauritius:. Moscow has agreed to help estab-
lish a Mauritian fishing industry in return for ser-
vicing Soviet fishing vessels. (Page 9)
Panama: The national guard has no firm plans to re-
linquish power. (Page 10)
Dominican Republic: Transport strike (Page 11)
Peru: Labor meeting (Page 11)
Nigeria: Former president (Page 12)
USSR-Guinea: Port call (Page 12)
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D.militarizsd Zan*
AVERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENFMY UNITS
AN I
X + I- N
Hatlalion
VC
200 400
NVA
300- 500
Reg,r?ent
VC
1,000 1,500
NVA
1,2002,000
Dtvtsion:
VC
5,000 7,000
NVA
5,000 8,000
SOUTH VIETNAM
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MILES
SECRET
II CORPS
CAM
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( South Vietnam: Communist terrorism has taken
a sharp upturn in recent weeks in rural areas and
may soon break out in Saigon.
Terrorist incidents increased more than 50 per-
cent in the week ending 21 August, and civilian
deaths at the hands of terrorists were significantly
higher in the first six months of 1969 than in the
last half of 1968. In the current upsurge in rural
areas, the Communists are not selecting individual
government officials for assassination, but are
killing civilians at random by bombing large gath-
erings. Twenty-four people were killed in a Viet
Cong bombing of a Revolutionary Development meeting
at a hamlet in Binh Dinh Province on 26 August. A
terrorist raid on a People's Self-Defense Force
hamlet in the delta on 27 August killed some 15
civilians.
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the Communists have organ-
ized nine specia actioh" units for terrorist raids
in the capital city area. The units are composed of
three-man teams trained in the use of explosives,
assassination, and bridge demolition. They are re-
portedly supported by an artillery unit and a 250-
man infantry force for attacks on defended installa-
tions.
Stiff fighting in the delta between ARVN troops
and the Viet Cong was the only significant military
ground action on 28 August. Communist units in
other parts of the country, however, re arias
for action within the next few days.
(Map)
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USSR - Communist China: Moscow has brought its
brief against China up to date in an attempt to en-
list support for its efforts to isolate and combat
Peking.
A major Pravda statement on 28 August casts the
Chinese leadership as apostates to the world Commu-
nist movement, promoters of international tensions,
active threats to world peace, and a physical threat
to countries both on China's borders and beyond.
Although the article opens with Moscow's case against
China over their border difficulties, it quickly goes
beyond that in an attempt to picture China as a
problem not only for the USSR and the Communist
community but for the whole world.
The article appears to be more an attempt to
enlist support for Moscow's struggle with Peking
than a justification for further military action.
In drawing its picture of an irresponsible and ag-
gressive China as a threat to world peace, it charges
that the Maoists are filling their arsenals with
"ever more and new weapons," and stresses that if
war should break out, in light of present modern
weaponry, it "would not leave a single continent
unaffected."
The article presents the Soviet case for the
Communist world by citing Peking's "indifference to
socialism's destinies," mentioning particularly
Chinese criticism of the world Communist conference,
the Warsaw Pact and CEMA, and Chinese support for
"antisocialist elements" in Czechoslovakia.
Pravda's attempt to appeal to the non-Communist
world i s broad, citing the common threat of Peking's
"irresponsibility," and even stating that "some of
the sober-minded circles of capitalist countries
also express grave concern over the threat to peace
which is inherent in the policy of the CPR leader-
ship." This is a fairly open attempt to raise the
image of a common ground with the West in opposition
to China.
(continued)
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The article is consistent with past Soviet
propaganda in expressing optimism that the USSR is
sufficiently strong that it does not fear Chinese
"threats" or territorial aspirations and reiterates
Moscow's standard expressions of desire for better
and more normal relations with the Chinese people.
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Japaan~n: The government probably will not sign
the nuclear nonproliferation treaty in the near
future.
Japan earlier had indicated it would sign by
the opening of the UN General Assembly session in
September. The US Embassy in Tokyo now believes
that continuing widespread opposition to the treaty
has made the government unwilling to damage its po-
sition by signing at this time.
Prime Minister Sato, seriously concerned over
opposition to the treaty within his own party, has
remained publicly uncommitted, while approving the
official line that his government is "unifying
views" prior to announcing its decision to sign.
The opposition parties, most of the media, and the
general public, moreover, are against the treaty.
Japanese opposition to the treaty stems in
large part from a fear that Japan, the third-rank-
ing economic power in the world, would relegate
itself to second-class status by renouncing its
nuclear option. The Japanese are also critical
of the treaty's proposed inspection arrangements,
and are influenced by the reluctance of countries
such as West Germany to sign.
The ruling conservatives, looking to national
elections and already facing the Okinawa reversion
question and the leftist "struggle" against the ex-
tension of the US-Japan security treaty next year,
are not anxious to compound their problems by going
against popular o inion on this issue.
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Israel: Six more settlements are to be estab-
lished in the occupied Arab territories.
An Israeli official, in announcing the plans,
said that there would be two new settlements each
in the Golan Heights, the Jordan River valley, and
northern Sinai. The Israelis have already established
11 settlements in the Golan.Heights, three in the
Jordan valley, at least three on the West Bank south
of Jerusalem, and three in Sinai. The latter are
separate from defense installations at Sharm ash-
Shaykh at the head of the Strait of Tiran.
The establishment of settlements in the occupied
territories is of course a sensitive issue for the
Arabs.,,who point to it as confirmation of Israel's
expansionist designs. It is also a hot political
issue in Israel, where opponents argue that such
moves limit the options available to the government
in the event of peace negotiations. On the other
hand, Defense Minister Dayan and others contend,
apparently more successfully, that establishment of
the settlements does not prejudge an eventual peace
agreement. They also argue that peace is far away
and that, in the interim, Israel must look to its
defenses and establish a presence in the occupied
territories.
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India: Open conflict in the ruling Congress
Party has subsided following agreement on a patch-
work compromise.
Old guard party bosses backed off from an at-
tempt to censure Prime Minister Gandhi at a meet-
ing of the Congress Party's central working commit-
tee early this week. Mrs. Gandhi's opponents again
boggled at the prospect of a split that would have
brought down the country's single-party government.
The compromise, proposed by Home Minister Chavan,
avoids assigning blame for dissension over the
presidential election and focuses on the need to
re-establish party unity.
The divisions between Mrs. Gandhi and the old
guard remain deep, however, despite the temporary
end to invective. Another outbreak could occur as
the Prime Minister tries to consolidate her gains.
Between now and the next general elections in 1972
she is expected to try to maneuver her supporters
into key party positions now dominated by the old
guard. Moreover, with her present majority support
among Congress parliamentarians, Mrs. Gandhi is
talking of new government action as a follow-up to
bank nationalization.
Speculation centers on legislation concerning
such matters as land reform, state control of in-
dustrial raw material imports, and ceilings on in-
comes and holdings of urban property. A cabinet
shuffle is also a possibility. Mrs. Gandhi may go
slow, however, in order to maintain unity in Con-
gress parliamentary ranks as she tries to give the
party a new image. Another precipitate act on her
part could provoke enough defections among right-
wing party members to leave her government depend-
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Malaysia-, Jittery authorities are preparing
for possible disturbances by Malay extremists this
weekend.
Deputy Prime Minister Razak warned potential
troublemakers in a nationwide radio and television
speech last night that they face stern measures if
they resort to violence during celebrations leading
up to national day on 31 Augusta Earlier in the
day the government showed it meant business when for
the first time the police moved onto the grounds of
the University of Malaya and used tear gas to dis-
perse several hundred students. The students had
been demonstrating against Prime Minister Rahman.
Despite the students'.actiona "ultras" within
the ruling party seem to have temporarily abandoned
political confrontation. A spokesman for the ex-
tremist faction in the ruling party has indicated
that the party extremists intend to pursue a policy
of concentrating on building support at the grass-
roots level while pushing for party constitution
amendments? which would give them a larger voice in
top party councils. The extremist leader stated
that he expects Rahman to resign within the next six
months and that there was some inclination to see
how Razak Performed as government leader.
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USSR Signs fishing Agreement with Mauritius
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USSR-Mauritius The USSR has agreed to help
Mauritius establish a domestic fishing industry in
exchange for the servicing of Soviet fishing vessels
at Port Louis.
Under a recently signed agreement, Moscow will
provide Mauritius with a fishing trawler and the
necessary Soviet specialists for a period of up to
two years to train local personnel in its operation.
The Soviets also will provide engines for the pro-
pulsion of inshore fishing vessels and other mis-
cellaneous fishing equipment. The two countries
agreed on the "necessity" of establishing and ex-
panding cooperation through a mixed Mauritian-Soviet
company for fisheries.
In exchange, Mauritius will grant Soviet fishing
vessels access to Port Louis for emergency repair
and refueling and for the transfer of Soviet fishing
crews by Soviet aircraft.
Although there is no indication that this
agreement has any direct connection with Soviet re-
quests for space support facilities in Mauritius,
the Soviets may hope that this new arrangement will
lead the Mauritians to be more cooperative.
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Panama: Government strongman Torrijos has
made it Tar that the national guard has no firm
plans to relinquish power.
in a widely publicized speech before the Amer-
ican Society of Panama on 26 August, General Tor-
ri3os asserted that his government had to "justify"
its seizure of power by achieving "specific objec-
tives" before stepping down. He did not, however,
spell out what those "objectives" were or when
they might be reached.
References to promised elections in 1970 have
disappeared from the controlled press in recent
weeks, and it has become increasingly apparent that
the government is trying to screen its retreat from
plans to revise the electoral process in prepara-
tion for general elections of some sort.
US Embassy sources report that the minister
of government has said he is uncertain when a de-
cision would be made on the draft electoral code
which has been under review for seven weeks. There
are strong indications that guard leaders are dis-
couraging any favorable publicity on the proposed
code and early elections.
Meanwhile, a prominent newspaper figure told
US officials that he was very doubtful that re-
strictions on the press would be lifted soon.
Only recently, General Torrijos collaborated in a
complex legal maneuver to shift control of a major
newspaper firm owned by the exiled Arias family.
The appointment of a national guard officer as the
editor will assure complete adherence to the mili-
tary government's line.
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Dominican Republic: The threat of spontaneous
violence persists despite the government's apparent
success in preventing the nationwide transportation
strike from getting out of hand. Only sporadic in-
cidents have been reported thus far, but opposition
leaders warn that the harsh security measures im-
posed will lead to strong reactions. Strike lead-
ers reportedly are satisfied with the results of the
walkout, which began on Wednesday, and believe that
administration measures are causing bitterness
against President Balaguer.
Peru: Communist labor leaders from several
Latin American countries are meeting in Lima this
week to endorse the Velasco government's petroleum
policy and the nationalization of the International
Petroleum Company. The conference was organized by
the Communist-dominated National Federation of Peru-
vian Petroleum Workers and other leftist groups. The
government, although it authorized the meeting, has
described it as "a private affair that has no con-
nection with the government" and is not expected to
permit a Cuban delegation to attend.
(continued)
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Nigeria: Former president Azikiwe, an Ibo who
is in We in London, has gone over to the federal
side and intends to return to Nigeria. Nigerian
leaders hope he will provide a rallying point for
Ibos in Biafra. Azikiwe has no influence with the
secessionist leadership, however, and his action is
unlikely to result in large-scale defections. More-
over, his presence in Nigeria may well give General
Gowon problems with other civilian politicians, no-
tably Chief Awolowo,a Yoruba who now holds the high-
est civilian position in the federal government.
USSR-Guinea: A group of five Soviet warships
pulled into Conakry on 27 August. The group con-
sists of a guided-missile frigate, two diesel sub-
marines, a submarine tender, and an oiler, all from
the Soviet squadron that operated in the Caribbean
last month. The visit, made without prior announce-
ment, reportedly will last one week.
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