CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 14, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2004/01/15: CIA-RDP79T00975A013109eQ9pe f
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
s o.
14 February 1969
State Dept. review completed
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/At9IDP79T00975A013100050001-0
No. 0039/69
14 February 1969
Central .Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Thailand: The government failure to win a lower
house majority will not result in any dramatic po-
litical changes. (Page 3)
India: Election returns show a continuing Congress
Party decline. (Page 5)
Ecuador: The country has demanded a bonus payment
from. a US oil concessionaire. (Page 7)
Argentina: The government has contracted for two
Br tish built frigates. (Page 8)
France-Spain: Debre's visit to Madrid has confirmed
good. relations between the countries. (Page 9)
25X1
Nigeria: Anti-US sentiment has risen. (Page 11)
Somali Republic: A showdown over the national police
commander has been averted. (Page 13)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Soviet propaganda (Page 14)
Cyprus: Communal. incident (Page 14)
Mozambique: Rebel group's leadership (Page 14)
India: New foreign minister (Page 15)
Peru - Communist China: Rice purchasing mission
Page 15)
Approved For Release 2004/0g ftLo4iMP79T00975A013100050001-0
A_ _L
 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
SECRET
Tonle
j sap
GULF OF
SIAM
AN
XUYEN
CAM BODUA
NORTH
I-%VI ETNA
L'I`'1H _~.:' L~NL
` _ KHANH
Hoa ('IIVH
!I, -'Long ~,
r`Binh
HIIO.-
TL,Y
K O NT UM
QUA NG
1UC
11 CORPS
BINH
DINH
TtIYCN
ouc
han Thiet
NINH THUAN
CHINA
SOUTH VIETNAM
MILES
Approved For Release 20CJEWJA-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
25X1
 Approved For Release 2004/0MRDP79T00975A013100050001-0
C South Vietnam: The Communists yesterday
launched one of the heaviest attacks in recent
weeks against allied field positions in Binh Thuan
Province.
At least a battalion of Communist troops at-
tacked South Vietnamese encampments in a landing
zone several miles north of Phan Thiet.
In the rest of the country, the Communists
relied on mortar and rocket attacks. Several US
Marine positions in southwestern Quang Tri Prov-
ince were struck and an attempted shelling of the
big Bien Hoa - Long Binh military complex in III
Corps was frustrated by allied air spotters. Pris-
oners captured in the Bien Hoa area claim that in-
tensive shelling of the base will be a prelude to
a ground assault by the Viet Cong 5th Division.
The Viet Cone are registering increased con-
cern over allied psychological warfare efforts. A
Liberation Radio broadcast of 9 February called the
Chieu Hoi program, the Accelerated Pacification
Campaign, and the Phoenix program "highly insidious
and dangerous." The Communists claim that the
allies are trying to use these programs to "cor-
rupt the revolutionary ideology and ethics of our
cadres and combatants and thereby undermine their
fighting determination." They seem most disturbed
about their cadres being "caught up by illusions
of peace" and by the problem of desertions. The
broadcast admitted that there had been some deser-
tions but claimed that only "hoodlums and the low-
est class men who cherish life and fear death have
surrendered, betraying others."
Defections from the Communist ranks have in
fact increased markedly within the past few months,
especially in IV Corps. Although many of these
defectors, as well. as the cadres eliminated in the
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/Qgpt DP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/63ECTRDP79T00975A013100050001-0
[Phoenix program, are low level and easily replaced,
the combined effect of all these programs seems to
have had a corrosive effect on Viet Cong morale.
The South Vietnamese police are keeping a
watchful eye on restive youth-student groups in
Saigon. Several Saigon University students have
been arrested recently for antigovernment and anti-
war agitation as well as for Viet Cong terrorist
attacks. The prime minister defended the arrests
to protesting university faculty circles by main-
taining that although the number arrested has been
large, only those who were actually engaged in "sub-
version" are still being held. (Map)
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/011 ~ a ppP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/0S lt]Kr-RDP79TO0975AO13100050001-0
Thailand: The government's failure to win
a majority in the lower house elections is embar-
rassing for the military leadership, but it will
not result in any dramatic changes in the way
Thailand is ruled.
With most votes counted, the government's
Saha Pracha Thai Party has won only some 35 per-
cent of the seats in the lower house. Independent
candidates, many of whom have ties with the gov-
ernment party, took about 32 percent; the opposi-
tion Democratic Party won 25 percent, and the re-
mainder went to splinter parties.
The government party's slim plurality presum-
ably will provide enough justification for the
present cabinet to reconstitute itself, possibly
with some minor changes, as the new government when
parliament convenes next month.
The government should have little difficulty
bringing into line enough independents to form a
working majority in the lower house. Thailand's
military-dominated leadership has made it clear,
however, that it will resist opposition efforts to
amend those sections of the constitution that se-
verely limit the powers of the lower house. The
senate, whose members are picked by the government,
has virtual veto power over important legislation.
The election will, however, influence to some
extent both the future policies and make-up of the
military leadership. Although they will have to
tread lightly, opposition elements for the first
time in over ten years have a legitimate forum in
which to express political dissent.
Without a clear mandate from the electorate,
the country's leadership will be more solicitous of
such views than they would have been otherwise. The
government party's poor showing, particularly in
Bangkok where it won no seats, may also aggravate
factional disputes within the establishment.
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/09 IA-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
SECRET
INDIA: Elections Held in Four States
UTTAR
PRADESH
Bhubaneswarq
'", ch # In cs~`
n i7?
Province capital
Province boundary
MILES 400
Part Bfak
Andaman -Isi
Approved For Release 20 1Yh E' 1A-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/(HB 1 I DP79T00975A013100050001-0
India: Results from the mid-term elections
in :northern India show a continuing decline in the
fortunes of the Congress Party and prospects for
political stability in the area are poor.
Nearly complete returns indicate that the
Congress Party has failed to regain a majority of
the assembly seats in at least three of the four
states where voting took place--West Bengal, Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh, and the Punjab--and has even lost
its former pluralities in two of these states. In
West Bengal, Congress was badly routed by a Left
Communist - led coalition. The Left Communists scored
a significant victory in becoming the largest single
party in the state assembly, although they will fall
far short of an absolute majority.
In the Punjab, no single party won a clear
majority and Congress came in a close second behind
a local communal party. Congress appears close to
a majority in Uttar Pradesh and seems to be salvag-
ing a plurality, at least, in Bihar.
The unstable political situation in northern
India that forced the new elections is likely to
continue. Congress has reversed its longstanding
policy against participation in coalition govern-
ments in the case of Bihar, but this is unlikely to
result in stable rule. In the Punjab, a highly
disparate anti-Congress coalition is likely to form
the government, but it will probably not have much
staying power.
West Bengal., with the Left Communist - dominated
United Front commanding a substantial legislative
majority, will provide different and serious prob-
lems. Tension between New Delhi and the new state
administration is likely to develop fairly soon,
and a decline in. law and order--especially in Cal-
cutta--is possible. New Delhi may seek to unseat
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/0 / 1 P79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/01 ;J2j -'IDP79T00975A013100050001-0
the new government, but will find it difficult to
justify such action unless serious strains develop
within the 12-party United Front.
The Congress Party has a slim majority in the
national parliament, but the continuing ebb of the
party's power across northern India raises serious
questions as to how it will fare in the next na-
tional election, which must be held within three
years. Map)
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/0Y C 1~,?.pP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/0$.ldiiDP79T00975A013100050001-0
Ecuador: The Velasco government, caught in
acute financial difficulties, has demanded a bonus
payment of $200 million from a US oil concession-
aire.
Under its own interpretation of the concession,
the Ecuadorean Government has decided to reclaim
two thirds of the concession area next month,
largely in a search for new income from other oil
companies anxious to get into this promising field.
Texaco-Gulf nevertheless recently asked permission
to construct a 320-mile trans-Andean pipeline from
the oilfields to a Pacific port.
On 10 February, cabinet ministers told a con-
sortium representative that in return for a $200
million bonus the Velasco government would extend
the terms of the existing concession and approve
the pipeline. Local consortium officials termed
the amount "preposterous" but are consulting their
head offices about offering a smaller sum that they
think would do the trick.
President Vee:lasco's primary worry at the mo-
ment is a growinc
,[ economic crisis; the budget is un-
balanced, as usual, and foreign exchange reserves
dropped over 20 percent in January. Two finance
ministers have resigned in less than a month. Velasco
apparently feels, with some justification, that the
financial crisis could bring down his government and
is desperately seeking a quick solution.
A Soviet trade delegation will arrive in Ecua-
dor tomorrow to discuss the first trade agreement
between the two countries and the first exchange of
diplomatic representatives. F7 I
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/08/ t.111--FDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/Og_VADP79T00975A013100050001-0
Argentina: The government has signed a con-
tract for the construction by a British shipyard
of two frigates equipped with missile launchers.
I construc-
tion will start in late 1969, and the contract pro-
vides for the subsequent construction of additional
frigates in Argentine yards using Argentine-produced
materials. This purchase, and the recently announced
decision to buy two submarines from West Germany,
are major steps in the navy's plan to modernize its
fleet over the next two decades.
Argentina's action could prompt Brazil to press
the US for an early decision concerning the procure-
ment and construction of ten destroyer escorts--the
first two to be built in the US and the remainder
in Brazil. Failing to gain this, the Brazilians
too might give serious thought to taking their busi-
ness to countries other than the US.
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 S RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/01.4{ P79T00975A013100050001-0
France-Spain: Foreign Minister Debre's visit
to Madrid last week served to confirm the good re-
lations between the two countries.
The main purpose of the trip, according to
French officials, was to bring Spain into a closer
relationship with Europe and to speed Spain's mod-
ernization. Most of the talks involved training
of Spanish technicians, French investments in Spain,
and. Spanish trade with the Common Market. A new
agreement for cultural, scientific, and technical
cooperation was signed.
The Spanish foreign minister, according to the
French, raised the idea of a withdrawal of the US
and Soviet fleets from the Mediterranean. Debre
is said to have responded that this was "impossible
and unthinkable"' in a period of acute tension in
the Middle East. He agreed, however, that in the
future only fleets of the littoral states should
be allowed in the Mediterranean. Press reports had
implied that Debre's reply had been more sympathetic.
Such topics as state visits between De Gaulle
and Franco, Spanish base negotiations with the US,
and Gibraltar, were not discussed.
The visit came as a welcome lift for the Span-
ish Government, which has been under international
criticism for its recent imposition of a state of
emergency. F_ I
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/01/~P79T00975A013100050001-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/01$(;Ri4+FPP79T00975A013100050001-0
Nigeria: Anti-US sentiment has risen sharply
in the Western State, where general restiveness
continues among the Yoruba tribesmen who predomi-
nate there.
Recent attacks on US policy in the Yoruba
press reflect a deep suspicion about the US role
in Nigeria. Many Yorubas interpret US and other
foreign efforts to step up relief supplies to
Biafra as interference in Nigeria's affairs and
as an indication of a decision to give political
and military support to the secessionists. This
sharp rise in antiforeig:n sentiment may to some
extent have bolstered Yoruba support for the
federal government's war policy.
On 12 February, meanwhile, another antitax
riot occurred in the Western State. Police and
army reinforcements were necessary to quell dis-
turbances directed against a tribal ruler's palace
and state government offices. Antitax disturbances
reached major proportions last November and Decem-
ber when some 80 people were killed in riots.
The rioting tapered off in late December, although
a strong current. of dissatisfaction remained.
Under present circumstances, the possibility that
a tax riot could. result in violence against for-
eign citizens or installations has probably in-
creased.
The antitax rioting appears to result prima-
rily from economic discontent and a general dis-
satisfaction with the corrupt state government
and, to a lesser extent, from latent war-weariness.
Yoruba political. factions are apparently exploit-
ing this unrest in an attempt to oust the present
state military governor.
(continued)
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2004/QE1'R( RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
Federal leader General Gowon probably recog-
nizes the need to take action against the state
governor, but has been reluctant to do so. He
probably fears that federal intervention would
only complicate the problem of dealin with the
comneting Yoruba political factions.
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2004/01 MC
Somali Republic: Somali Prime Minister Egal
and. Minister of Interior Yassin have backed away
from a showdown with the able national police com-
mander, General Abscir.
Abscir, who has directed the national police
since 1960, gave notice of his intention to resign
after the sudden publication last week of a presi-
dential decree transferring all authority for po-
lice assignments; to Yassin. More basic, however,
is the fact that Abscir has never fully enjoyed
the confidence of either Egal or President Scer-
marche since they took office in 1967. Despite his
apparently loyal. service to the new government,
Abscir's close relationship with former president
Aden and prime minister Abdirazak has left him un-
der somewhat of a cloud.
Although the details are not yet known, a com-
promise seems to have been reached. Yassin has
agreed in effect not to exercise his newly acquired.
powers, and Abscir apparently will not resign. To
be effective, a presidential decree must be approved
by parliament within 30 days after it convenes. The
deputies are not scheduled to meet until after the
election on 26 March, and the decree may be quietly
forgotten.
Abscir's resignation would have created a
serious morale problem among the police at a time
when the government will be relying on them to con-
trol the widespread local disturbances that are ex-
ected to occur during elections next month.
I
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/01gkCCl ffP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/bfLi:~R DP79T00975A013100050001-0
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Radio Vltava, the Soviet-
backed station that beamed propaganda into Czecho-
slovakia from East Germany since shortly after the
invasion, appears to have ceased operations yester-
day. Prague has long sought to get the station off
the air. The Soviet action may be one of several
small steps Moscow has recently taken to portray
relations between the two nations as returning to
"normal." The frequency that Radio Vltava used has
been turned back to the East Germans, however, who
are using it for their Radio Berlin International
program, which includes some broadcasts 'n Czech
and Slovak.
Cyprus: The most serious disturbance since
the intercommunal talks began last June has briefly
marred the peace on Cyprus. The dispute arose out
of an alleged increase in the number of unarmed
Greek Cypriot police patrolling a "no armaments"
zone and led to a confrontation with armed Turkish
Cypriots. The incident appears to have been brought
under control by the UN peace force. Such acts
nevertheless endanger efforts to arrive at a set-
tlement of the island's political problems.
Mozambique: The executive committee of the
Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) has chosen
Uriah Simango as acting president until the party's
central committee meets this spring to select a
permanent successor to the assassinated Eduardo
Mondlane. Simango is also the leading contender
for the presidency on the basis of his long tenure
as FRELIMO vice president. Simango espouses mili-
tancy, but whether he deserves his pro-Communist
reputation or is an opportunist who has welcomed
Communist assistance is not clear.
(continued)
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 200QW(It. -RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/01SBC k bP79T00975A013100050001-0
India: As part of a sudden cabinet reshuffle,
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has appointed Dinesh
Singh minister of external affairs--a post she has
held herself for the past 18 months. Singh has
been the prime minister's confidant, as well as
holding down the portfolio of minister of commerce
during the past two years, and has become one of
the most important members of the government. His
has a pro-Soviet reputation. he has been genera y
critical of US policies and has been a difficult
negotiator in his official dealings with Americans.
Peru - Communist China: A Peruvian mission
now en route to Communist China will conduct Lima's
first government-to-government rice-purchasing ne-
gotiations with Peking. The Peruvian Government
has been importing rice to bolster stocks that
have been depleted because of drought in the north-
ern part of the country. The quantity of rice to
be purchased from Peking is not known, but the
mission may work out details on an attractive offer
China made last December to supply 20,000 tons.
Last year Peru imported 20 000 tons of Chinese rice
worth about $3.6 million.
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X6
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/01oc14FDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Approved For Release 2004/ /R-E4 RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
The United States Intelligence Board, on 13
February 1969, approved the following national
intelligence estimates:
NIE 11-11-69 Soviet Chemical and Bio-
logical Warfare Capabili-
ties F_ I 25X1
SNIE 93-69 Brazil 25X1
14 Feb 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 16
Approved For Release 2004f / c RDP79T00975A013100050001-0
 Secl roved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0
Secret
Approved For Release 2004/01/15 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO13100050001-0