CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012900080001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 14, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
14 January 1969
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State Dept. review completed
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,No. 0012/69
14 January 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Laos: The military situation is heating up again
in he south. (Page 3)
Sweden - North Vietnam: Other Nordic countries have
made it known that they will not follow Stockholm's
lead in recognizing Hanoi. (Page 4)
West Germany - USSR: German officials are becoming
more optimistic over prospects for improved rela-
tions with Moscow. (Page 5)
Lebanon: Difficulty in forming a new cabinet may
plunge the country deeper into crisis. (Page 6)
Turke : A new wave of student and labor unrest
is developing. (Page 7)
Nepal: King Mahendra has pardoned 17.5 non-Communist
political exiles. (Page 8)
Panama: There have been fresh clashes between guer-
rillas and national guard troops. (Page 9)
West Germany - East Germany: Trade increase (Page 10)
Netherlands - North Korea: Recognition maneuvers
(Page 10)
Peru: Repression (Page 11)
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South Vietnam: Communist military actions
tapered off on 12-13 January following widespread
enemy mortar shellings over the weekend in III and
IV corps.
There were two enemy attacks against allied
installations in the delta on 12-13 January, how-
ever, and extensive damage was inflicted on US
helicopters.
Ground contacts remained generally light and
scattered. Over 60 Communists were killed in skir-
mishes in the provinces north of Saigon, and an-
other 25 enemy troops were killed by South Korean
forces along the coast of II Corps.
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Communist Pressure Returns to Southern Laos
? Government held location Government garrison
hit by enemy attack)
Communist-controlled territory
Contested territory
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Laos: The military situation is heating up
again in the south.
After a three-week respite, the government
base at Ban Thateng has again become the target
of North Vietnamese forces positioned along the
eastern rim of the Bolovens Plateau. The garrison
was hit with a heavy mortar attack and light ground
probes on 12 January, in what appears to be the
start of a fresh campaign to force the government
to surrender that strategically located position.
As many as three North Vietnamese battalions are
dug in around the base, and the weary 400-man de-
fending force may not hold out even if the enemy
does not launch an all-out ground assault.
Evidence continues to mount, meanwhile, that
the Thateng operation is part of a wider Communist
effort to reduce sharply the government's presence
around the Bolovens. Villagers in the Se Done Val-
ley report that the enemy has opened Route 23,
which connects with the main supply corridor from
North Vietnam, and is moving both troops and sup-
plies into the area. In addition to increasing
harassment against the provincial capital of Sara-
vane, the enemy appears to be preparing for a push
against government positions along the western
edge of the valley. Last year at this time, North
Vietnamese and Pathet Lao troops moved into the
Se Done area and began offsetting the gains of a
two-year government development and proselyting
program.
In the north, the enemy is moving quickly to
consolidate its hold in the Phou Pha Thi area.
North Vietnamese reinforcements have overrun sev-
eral outlying government bases in recent days,
and it appears to be only a matter of time before
most of the government's gains of the past several
months will be lost. The situation at Na Khang,
where the next major Communist effort in the north-
east may come, is uiet at the moment.
(Map)
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Sweden - North Vietnam: Sweden's recognition
of North Vietnam surprise other Nordic countries,
which have made it known that they do not intend
to follow Stockholm's lead.
The Danes maintain that this is not the time
to recognize Hanoi and they will await develop-
ments at the Paris peace talks. Although the gov-
ernment has still to take formal action, the Nor-
wegians have made it clear that they will hold to
their policy of not recognizing more than one part
of such divided states as Vietnam. The Finns
quickly announced that their policy of not estab-
lishing diplomatic relations with divided states
would preclude their recognizing Hanoi.
Within Sweden, the government's move has not
been criticized, but its timing and handling have
been questioned. Spokesmen for the non-Socialist
opposition parties have expressed doubt that de-
velopments at Paris justify such haste and believe
that needless strain has been placed on relations
with the US. The leader of the Swedish Communist
Party, aware that a favorite far-left issue had
been pre-empted by the government, is said to be
angry that the move was made before parliament
could meet to discuss it.
In an effort to prevent speculation on fur-
ther moves, government officials have told the
press that there would be no change in Sweden's
policy of not recognizing East Germany or North
Korea, and no decision would be made for the pres-
ent on the "delicate question" of resuming relations with Saigon.
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West Germany - USSR: An air of optimism ap-
pears to be taking hold in the West German foreign
office over prospects for improved relations with
Moscow.
One official has indicated that while there
was nothing spectacular or new in Ambassador Tsar-
apkin's latest presentation to Foreign Minister
Brandt on 10 January, there was cause for encour-
agement in Tsarapkin's pleasant manner and advocacy
of continuing the talks.
Tsarapkin left with Brandt an informal note
in which Soviet objections to holding the West
German presidential election on 5 March in West
Berlin were again registered. At the same time,
he said that exchanges of views on other issues
had "positive aspects."
Soviet diplomats have been "detente minded"
at recent appearances in other Western European
capitals as well. In the case of Bonn, Moscow ev-
idently hopes that encouraging West German interest
in movement on bilateral matters--including pending
negotiation of a civil air pact and further discus-
sion of a nonuse of force agreement--will help per-
suade Bonn to keep the presidential election out
of Berlin.
The relatively "soft" Soviet approach also is
designed to play on differences among the Allies
and within the Bonn government over the advisabil-
ity of proceeding with the Berlin event. Moscow
has kept open the possibility of countermeasures
if the election is held in Berlin, however, and
has made clear that Bonn must bear the brunt of
"unfavorable consequences." Nevertheless, the
West German foreign office has expressed the view
that Moscow does not intend to cut off bilateral
talks over this issue.
According to the West Germans, no decision
has been made on how, when, or where to pursue
future exchanges with the Soviets.
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Lebanon: Premier-designate Karami's difficulty
in forming a new cabinet may plunge the country into
an even deeper political crisis.
Wrangling between the parliament's rival blocs
is still preventing agreement on the composition of
a new cabinet, while President Hilu, burdened with
the events of the past few weeks, is on the verge
of physical exhaustion and appears to the US Em-
bassy to be in a depressed state of mind.
If the cabinet crisis should be prolonged,
the possibility of a military take-over would in-
crease, especially in view of the army's present
humiliation over the Beirut airport incident and
the precarious Middle East situation.
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Turkey: A new wave of student and labor un-
rest is developing.
An increasing number of clashes between left-
and right-wing.student groups in recent days sug-
gests that extremist elements of both factions
have adopted a strategy of violence. Self-styled
rightist "commandos," possibly the action arm of
the small Republican Peasant Nation Party (RPNP)
headed by neofascist Alpaslan Turkes, have staged
two raids on university dormitories housing left-
ist students. The leftists retaliated by trying
to lynch an alleged leader of the raiders. Fur-
ther violence has been threatened if leftist stu-
dents involved in the recent burning of the US
ambassador's car are prosecuted.
At the same time, labor unrest appears to be
growing. Late last week a group of workers seized
control of an industrial plant near Istanbul as a
protest against foreign investment in Turkey.
They threatened to burn the plant if the police
tried to dislodge them by force. They relinquished
control of the plant, however, after a minor clash
and a police ultimatum.
A brief sit-in also took place at a refrig-
erator plant in Istanbul. This may have been the
result of a bona fide labor dispute; nonetheless
some workers and police were injured before order
was restored.
The government is preparing several bills
designed to limit extremist activities in Turkey
and has promised to ban the RPNP if an investiga-
tion indicates that the "commandos" are in any way
connected with the party. Unless these legal moves
to counter extremist activities are successful,
the security forces will have an increasingly dif-
ficult time coping with the violence.
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Nepal: King Mahendra's recent pardon of 175
political exiles is a major step forward in the
continuing process of accommodation between the
King and his non-Communist opposition.
The pardoned exiles--all reportedly members
of the proscribed Nepali Congress Party (NCP)--
were convicted of crimes against the state follow-
ing Mahendra's ouster of the elected NCP govern-
ment in 1960. Their absolution is probably a di-
rect outcome of negotiations between the King and
the recently pardoned acting president of the NCP,
Subarna Shumsher. Shumsher returned to Nepal in
December after publicly pledging the party's loy-
alty to the King and his partyless political sys-
tem last May. Approximately 700 NCP exiles are
alleged to be in India; but because of the ties
that they have established there, it is doubtful
that all of them are interested in returning to
the kingdom.
Mahendra has steadfastly insisted that par-
dons will be granted only on the basis of indi-
vidual petitions. His refusal to grant a general
amnesty to all political exiles has enabled him
to fend off demands from Communist exiles seeking
equal treatment with the NCP.
In spite of the efforts of the Communists
and some disgruntled politicians to frustrate the
King's reconciliation with the NCP, it appears
that Mahendra is determined to permit the gradual
evolution of a. more liberal political environment
as long as it does not undermine his own paramount
authority.
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Panama: There have been fresh clashes between
guerrillas and national guard troops near the Costa
Rican border during recent weeks.
Fire fights reported on 27 December, 9 January,
and 11 January were presumably instigated by the
supporters of ousted president Arias who infiltrated
into this remote mountainous region from Costa
Rica in late November. Several guardsmen were
killed and others wounded in these skirmishes.
The insurgents had dropped out of sight in
mid-December after a series of similar border in-
cidents. Their reappearance suggests that they
are attempting to take advantage of local hostil-
ity toward the guard, whose arbitrary measures
have alienated much of the populace in the area.
It appears unlikely, however, that the insurgent
movement will create more than a temporary di
sion for the government 25X1
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West Germany - East Germany: Trade turnover
between West and East Germany last year rose to
$725 million, seven percent above the 1967 level,
according to preliminary statistics. This increase
occurred despite a more than six-percent decline
in trade during the first half of the year. The
over-all rise apparently was because of higher
West German purchases, particularly of East German
grain, during the latter part of the year. The
trade agreement concluded between Bonn and Pankow
last month, which includes several important con-
cessions to the East Germans, probably will lead
to more trade in 1969 than in the peak year of 1966
when the level reached $750 million. 25X1
Netherlands - North Korea: A leading Dutch
shipbuilder, whose yard is building two fish fac-
tory ships for North Korea, continues to lobby for
a "permanent or semipermanent" Korean representa-
tion in the Netherlands. The Dutch Foreign Min-
istry has rejected these overtures in the past.
North Korea's economic development plan calls for
a major expansion of its fishing fleet, and an
official of the ministry suspects that the ship-
builder is seeking new contracts. The Dutch have
admitted North Korean technicians on a temporary
basis, but the shipbuilder finds this arrangement
less than satisfactory. The two ships under con-
struction are to be delivered by Dutch crews in
March and September. 25X1
(continued)
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Peru: The military government appears ready
to embark on a new series of repressive actions
against former officials. The minister of govern-
ment has announced the arrest of a former cabinet
member for crimes against the state and said that
"others will fall soon." For the moment the gov-
ernment's "moralization campaign" appears aimed
primarily at officials of the Belaunde administra-
tion who were involved in dealings with the Inter-
national Petroleum Company. Three former ministers
who were detained temporarily in October for their
role in Belaunde's settlement with the c have
since taken refuge outside the country. om an 25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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