CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012300100001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 17, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
50:
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No 0289/68
17 October 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR-Czechoslovakia: A military agreement has been
signed. Page 3)
Jordan: New government checks on terrorist activities
1i drawn angry reactions. (Page 5)
Turkey: Dissension within the opposition Republican
People's Party may lead to a new party split. (Page 6)
UK-Rhodesia: The British continue efforts to solve
theddispute but are not optimistic. (Page 7)
Panama: Arias is still trying to stir up resistance
tot. the junta. (Page 8)
Indonesia-Singapore: Relations are likely to be
strained by Singapore's execution of two Indonesian
marines. (Page 9)
Philippines-Malaysia: Sabah dispute (Page 10)
Brazil: Student demonstrations (Page 10)
Guyana: Cabinet frictions (Page 10)
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Q ang Ngai
II
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rz;
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CaMau -_~-
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-~/' Iv CORPS
SOUTH VIETNAM
MILES
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'Pa Nang
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Vietnam:
South Vietnam: Enemy repositioning and resupply
operations are continuing, apparently in preparation
for a new offensive round.
There is evidence of a significant expansion in
Communist logistic activity in northwestern III Corps.
A heavy increase has been observed during the past
few days in vehicular and other supply operations
along the Tay Ninh Province border with Cambodia.
Elements of the enemy's Ninth Division are probably
involved, because the division's three regiments
are currently believed deployed in this sector.
Significant Communist military activity oc-
curred on 15-16 October. Allied troops attacked a
Communist force estimated at battalion strength near
Gio Linh, Seventy-five of the enemy troops were
killed in the encounter. At Thien Ngon, a Special
Forces camp came under heavy ground attack from
enemy rockets and mortars.
North Vietnam: Logistic operations in support
of the war are also continuing at a heavy pace in
North Vietnam. Photography since early August in-
dicates that at least five transshipment points and
storage areas have been improved and enlarged within
the bomb-free zone close to the 19th parallel. Stock-
piling, including large stores of POL, has increased
at these points. Photography shows a rapid stockpile
turnover, indicating that goods are being moved on-
ward quickly. There has also been an increase in
truck and watercraft activity at rail and water
transshipment points in the area.
It is believed that many of the supplies fun-
neling through this sector are destined for Communist
military units in South Vietnam.
(continued)
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C Communist front organizations throughout Europe
are preparing for extraordinary efforts*in support of
Hanoi's position at the Paris talks. There are re-
ports that such organizations as the World Peace
Council plan large-scale protest marches and "con-
ferences" in late October and November in various
countries of Western Europe and Scandinavia as well
as in Eastern Europe.
(Map)
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-Czechoslovakia: Premiers Kosygin and Cernik
last night in Prague signed a military agreement which
Moscow can now cite as legal authority for the con-
tinued presence of its forces in Czechoslovakia.
The text of the treaty has not yet been pub-
lished, but the Soviet Union reportedly plans to
maintain 100,000 Soviet troops in Czechoslovakia,
mostly in the western part of the country. Kosygin
said yesterday that the bulk of Soviet and other
Warsaw Pact troops will be withdrawn by stages within
the next few months.
According to Western news reports, several ques-
tions--such as apportionment of the costs of the
occupation, agreement on criminal jurisdiction, and
the provision of billeting for the occupation troops--
were left open and will be settled later by lower
level officials. The Soviets have shown little
willingness to accommodate Prague on these matters.
Now that Moscow has what it wants--formal Czechoslo-
vak agreement to Soviet troops on its soil--it is
unlikely to be more generous.
With the signing of the treaty, Moscow has
taken a large step toward carrying out its view of
"normalization." The Czechoslovaks have not yet
satisfied Moscow's demand that they admit the inter-
vention was justified because of the existence of a
"counterrevolutionary" situation. Moscow may direct
its next efforts to obtaining such an admission,
which would open the gates for a broad purge of the
Czechoslovak party and government.
The tough Soviet posture since Dubcek's talks
in Moscow on 3-4 October has taken its toll on Czech-
oslovak morale. I
Dubcek and his colleagues were disheartened when
faced with unexpected new Soviet demands to. cut party
membership to the bone, reorganize the party struc-
ture, and install new leaders. The talks were re-
portedly so one-sided that the Czechoslovak party
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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presidium subsequently approved the conduct of the
delegation, but not the results of the negotiations.
The accounts of these talks have led to a re-
surgence of party conservatives and at the same time
probably are at the root of growing dissidence among
the people. Some non-Communist political groups
banned since the invasion reportedly have been meeting
in secret, and some intellectuals believe it is time
that the Czechoslovaks demonstrate more vigorously
their disapproval of Prague's growing subservience.
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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Jordan: The Jordanian Government's new pro-
scriptions against terrorist'activity have provoked
an angry response from the Fatah terrorist organiza-
tion in Cairo.
Fatah claims that the Amman government is under-
mining the terrorist movement by bringing "counter-
revolutionary" desert forces into action, and by
conscripting Jordanian youths into the army in order
to prevent their joining the fedayeen. Fatah spokes-
men assert that East Bank police have been disarmed
because their loyalty is uncertain.
The Jordanians are in fact taking measures along
these lines. Security forces have set up new check-
points in and around Amman, and the Jordanian Army
has been picking up sizable numbers of young men
eligible for conscription. The US Embassy reports
increased tension among the Amman populace.
King Husayn is due to return home from a medical
visit to London at the end of the week. If he main-
tains his present policy toward the terrorists,
which seems likely, he may be in for a serious domes-
tic reaction.
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Turke : The major opposition Republican People's
Party RPP) is again plagued by serious internal dis-
sension, and the biennial national convention which
opens tomorrow could produce a new party split.
The disagreement centers on the RPP's political
philosophy. A majority of party members appear to
favor the present left-of-center orientation, but
moderates believe the RPP has swung too far to the
left. Party chief Ismet Inonu has generally remained
aloof from the debate. According to the Turkish press,
however, he recently stated publicly that the RPP
will never become a socialist party.
Inonu, who helped Ataturk create the RPP, re-
cently celebrated his 84th birthday and cannot be
expected to maintain active leadership much longer.
The current skirmishing is almost certainly aimed
at gaining control of key offices and the policy-
making structure in the party before Inonu steps
down. Bulent Ecevit, RPP secretary general and a
leader in the left-of-center faction, appears to be
the top contender for Inonu's mantle, but his bid
will not go unchallenged.
The differences between opposing RPP factions
appear irreconcilable. One of the leaders of the
moderate wing has charged that a few "perverted ex-
treme leftists" are trying to make the RPP a "tool
of their evil ambitions." In turn, a left-wing
spokesman attacked the moderates as "profiteers"
who are "allied to capitalists and other reactionary
forces" trying to mutilate the left-of-center phi-
losophy.
The left-of-center faction probably will dom-
inate the convention, and the moderates consequently
may bolt the party, following the example of a group
that left in the spring of 1967. A new split on the
eve of an election year could be a serious blow to
the party. F77 I
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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UK-Rhodesia: The British are trying to keep alive
the faint possibility that Prime Minister Ian Smith
will accept their terms for settling the dispute, but
they are not very optimistic.
London is prepared to continue discussions, and
hopes that the Rhodesians will be willing to meet with
Commonwealth Secretary Thomson in Salisbury. British
officials also take comfort from the fact that the re-
cent talks were held in a much better atmosphere than
were the meetings two years ago.
Smith yesterday called publicly upon Britain to
drop a key demand which would give London an effect-
ive veto over any constitutional change following in-
dependence. He said if this were done there would be
a "distinct possibility" of a settlement. Smith ap-
pears to be still anxious to avoid the onus of break-
ing off the negotiations and presumably would be will-
ing to spin them out further with Thomson.
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Panama: Former president Arnulfo Arias remains
in the Canal Zone. There is some fear on the part
of US officials that his efforts to incite violence
may result in a kidnap attempt by agents of the mili-
tary junta.
Sniping in the vicinity of Panama City's largest
secondary school was renewed yesterday, but national
guard troops restored calm with no serious incidents.
A clandestine radio station has resumed transmitting
sporadically--thus far with little effect--with a re-
corded statement by Arias urging the people to "rise
up in arms against the military dictatorship."
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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Indonesia-Sin a ores The execution in Singapore
today of two Indonesian marines is likely to strain
relations between the two countries and to create
difficulties for the Suharto government domestically.
Despite urgent personal appeals from both Indo-
nesian President Suharto and Foreign Minister Malik,
the Singapore Government refused to stay the execu-
tions. The marines were convicted of a terrorist
bombing during ex-President Sukarno's campaign
against Malaysia.
Malik's aide, in Singapore to seek a commutation,
has predicted serious damage to Indonesia-Singapore
relations. One high Indonesian official has sug-
gested that Indonesia may reduce its embassy to
consulate level. Tensions between Singapore and
Indonesia may also further reduce prospects for area
cooperation through the new Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, already jeopardized by the Sabah dis-
pute.
Indonesian officials have attempted to keep the
issue quiet, but several. emotional editorials have
already appeared in the Indonesian press. The gov-
ernment apparently fears that the navy and marine
corps--the remaining strongholds of leftists and
Sukarnoists in the government--will use the issue
to generate popular support enabling them to frus-
trate President Suharto's impending purge of these
services.
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Philippines-Malaysia: A provocative speech by
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ramos at the UN on 15
October apparently has scuttled the Philippine-Malay-
sian ministerial talks planned for next week in Tokyo.
Malaysian Prime Minister Rahman said yesterday that
Ramos' blunt statement that Malaysia has no authority
to represent or speak for Sabah ruled out the Tokyo
meeting to discuss relations between the two countries.
The hard-line Philippine statement apparently was made
on instructions from President Marcos. 25X1
Brazil: Leftist students have begun protesting
the arrest on 12 October of more than 700 delegates
to the 30th congress of the illegal National Students
Association. Demonstrations have taken place in sev-
eral cities, particularly in the turbulent Northeast,
and students are meeting to decide their future course
of action. Since most of those arrested belonged to
the slightly less radical factions, leadership will
probably fall into the hands of extremist militants
in the Popular Action movement. This situation, and
the reported readiness of the security forces to use
a heavy hand in suppressing demonstrations, increase
the possibility of violent clashes. 25X1
Guyana: Prime Minister Burnham's coalition gov-
ernment is near the point of breaking up over a dis-
pute involving a proposed electoral law. The junior
coalition party is opposed to the legislation, and
Burnham has said he will dismiss all its cabinet min-
isters unless they change their stand and support him.
Burnham is probably taking such an uncompromising at-
titude now because he believes he can get his legis-
lation enacted without the junior party's support.
17 Oct 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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