CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012000040001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 30, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
State Dept. review completed 30 August 1968
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No. 0248/68
30 August 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Dubcek regime in step with
Moscow orders but Soviets appear impatient over pace
of change. (Page 1)
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 5)
Israel - Arab States: Israelis threaten severe re-
prisals for Egyptian raid. (Page 7)
Morocco-Algeria: King Hassan and Premier Boumediene
to meet soon. (Page 8)
Philippines-Malaysia: There may be renewed tension
over Sabah. (Page 9)
Nepal: King Mahendra moving toward reconciliation
with exiled Nepali Congress Party members. (Page 10)
Guatemala: Communist terrorists threaten more ac-
tions. (Page 11)
Panama: President-elect Arias will visit Germany,
France, and the US next month. (Page 12)
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E Czechoslovakia-USSR: The Dubcek regime con-
tinues to pick up the threads of control, but the
Soviets and their allies appear impatient over its
pace.
Although Soviet broadcasts have commented fa-
vorably on Dubcek's efforts to date, they have joined
their fellow interventionists in warning that "coun-
terrevolutionary" forces are becoming more active.
Moscow is most concerned that Dubcek has not yet
cracked down on the clandestine radios and the free
press. To underline this impatience, Soviet troops
yesterday reportedly sacked the publishing house of
the archliberal Literarni Listi after that journal
had editorially denounced the occupation and called
for rejection of the Moscow agreement. The clandes-
tine radio stations also began going off the air
yesterday, presumably with Soviet assistance.
Two versions of the "complete" Moscow agreement
were passed to the US Embassy in Prague on 29 August,
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Both accounts contain the usual references to a
gradual troop withdrawal, an end to anti-Soviet
propaganda, and an annulment of the 14th art con-
gress. The ambassador's version
a so contends that oscow wi control the
implementation of the Cierna and Bratislava agree-
ments, that Soviet advisers will be attached to the
Defense Ministry and all branches of the army, and
that Prague's foreign policy must be coordinated
with the "Warsaw Five." This report is also similar
to a so-called "secret protocol" published by a
West German news agency.
Dubcek and other leaders reportedly have been
consulting over the last three days on how to re-
concile the existence of three party central com-
mittees: the preintervention body; the group elected'
30 Aug 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ORUSSIIvN
PAIL. DST.
USSR
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[by the 14th congress last week, which the Soviets
condemn as illegal; and a third allegedl drafted
by the Soviets. Dubcek
may try to get Soviet agreement to a compromise
central committee from which the conservatives most
unpopular in Czechoslovakia and those ardent re-
formers anathema to Moscow would be excluded. Be-
cause only a party congress can elect a central com-
mittee, however, Dubcek may resort to a pro tem
arrangement until the 14th congress can be recon-
vened. No decision on the congress has been an-
nounced, but rumors were circulating in Prague
yesterday that delegates are reassembling.
The situation in Prague has changed little.
Bitterness and depression. are still the dominant
emotions, but the spirit of resistance continues to
wane. National Assembly Chairman Smrkovsky yesterday
joined other leaders in appealing for popular acqui-
escence to the Moscow agreement. In what was pos-
sibly the gloomiest of the leaders a speeches, Smr-
kovsky warned that the only alternative is a "long-
term occupation administration." In his remarks
about the agreement, Smrkovsky confirmed previous
reports that Prague will have to quash all "political
clubs" and disallow any political parties other than
the Communist Party.
Additional Soviet elements from the western
USSR may be moving into Czechoslovakia. On 26 Au-
gust, an embassy employee reported seeing 1,000
Soviet vehicles in the Carpathian Military District
moving toward Czechoslovakia. These vehicles had
white stripes on their hoods similar to those seen
on the vehicles used by the occupation forces in
Czechoslovakia.
There have been further unconfirmed reports of
Rumanian troop movements near the Bulgarian and
Soviet borders on 24-27 August, but there are still
no firm indications of any Soviet preparations to
intervene in Rumania. (Map)'
30 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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0 25 50 75 100M~les
0 25 50 75 1 no Kilometers
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Vietnam:
South Vietnam: Enemy offensive activity on 29
August again focused on the provinces around Saigon.
So far, the Communists have lost 103 killed in
assaults against Trang Bang, a district capital some
26 miles northwest of Saigon, and in attacks against
nearby allied positions.
Fifteen enemy mortar and rocket attacks were
also reported in Binh Duong, Hau Nghia, and Long An
provinces. These attacks coincided with numerous
reports of stepped-up enemy troop activity along
known infiltration corridors leading to Saigon.
There were few enemy initiatives elsewhere in
South Vietnam, as allied spoiling operations have
apparently forced enemy forces to regroup in several
strategic sectors.
The South Vietnamese cabinet under Prime Min-
ister Huong continues to look for ways to counter
Communist political activity.
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Huong's cabinet, which has been in office for
three months, has recently shown greater interest
in problems it may face in a postwar period. It has
already formed an "inner cabinet" to prepare the
broad outlines of a political action program to meet
and overcome Communist activity expected after a
cease-fire.
(continued)
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[North Vietnam: For the first time, the Commu-
nists are moving substantial numbers of trucks into
the Laotian panhandle during the rainy season, de-
spite heavy rains.
An average of 11 trucks per day have been noted
moving south over the Mu G.ia Pass from 1 to 27 Au-
gust, and more than five per day are believed to have
moved over another route.
The North Vietnamese made extensive improvements
in the road net earlier this year, suggesting that
they have been determined for some time to keep
trucks moving south this rainy season. This they
have been able to d arely in previous years.
(Map)]
30 Aug 68
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Israel - Arab States: Israeli Defense Minister
Dayan has threatened severe reprisals against Egypt
for the Egyptian raid across the Suez Canal on 26
August.
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The Israelis seem to be setting the scene for
a major attack against either Egypt or Jordan or,
possibly, both. While there is still no evidence
of preparations for a major raid on northern Jordan
such as that predicted by Jordanian Viceroy Muhammad
earlier in the week, Israel does have a tank concen-
tration in occupied Syria and is ing an "ex-
ercise" there early next week. 25X1
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Morocco-Algeria: Preparations may be under way
for an early meeting between Moroccan King Hassan
and Algerian Premier Boumediene.
The meeting could be the price Hassan exacted
for his promise to attend the African summit confer-
ence scheduled to open in Algiers on 13 September.
He had earlier indicated that he would not attend the
conference. Hassan's recently announced plan to
visit northern Morocco beginning on 6 September raises
the possibility that he may meet Boumediene before the
summit, possibly at the Moroccan resort village of
Saidia, where Hassan and Ben Bella conferred just
five weeks before the Algerian coup in 1965.
The two most likely issues to be touched on may
be Moroccan claims to parts of the Algerian Sahara,
probably including recently renewed tension in the
disputed border area, and the status of political
exiles. The Algerians are acutely concerned over
the recent activities of exiled opponents of the
regime, particularly former chief of staff Col.
Tahar Zbiri and Belkacem Krim. The Moroccans are
likewise concerned about dissidents who have re-
ceived asylum and assistance from the Algerians.
Although a Hassan-Boumediene meeting may impart
a temporary warmth to Maghrebian relations, ideolog- 25X1
ical differences separating the two regimes and the
mutual suspicions and antagonisms between them sug-
gest that any amity will be tenuous at best.
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Philippines-Malaysia: Philippine congressional
action to redefine territorial seas may end the
"cooling-off" period on Sabah.
Both houses of the Philippine congress on 29
August agreed to add to a bill an amendment referring
to "the territory of Sabah over which the Republic
of the Philippines has acquired dominion and sover-
eignty." The bill now goes to President Marcos for
action. He must anticipate adverse Malaysian rbac-
tion if he signs the bill, or domestic opposition if
he vetoes or simply ignores it.
Malaysia has already reacted strongly to the
bill. Prime Minister Rahman, commenting publicly on
the version passed earlier this week by the House of
Representatives, stated that Philippine action was
an attempt to generate heat over Sabah rathe
to ease the situation,
he
bill negates Manila's claims of friendship and re-
duces chances of effective cooperation.
The amendment is said to have been pushed as a
means of getting the Philippines' Sabah claim before
the United Nations. According to a presidential
legislative assistant, the Philippines calculates
that if and when the redefined boundaries are sub-
mitted to the UN, Malaysia would object and thus
brin the Philippine claim into UN discussion.
30 Aug 68
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Nepal: King Mahendra continues to move cau-
tiously toward a reconciliation with members of
the exiled Nepali Congress :Party (NCP).
Since NCP elements in India offered to co-
operate with the regime last May, there have been
indications that the King favors some sort of ac-
commodation with the party, his major non-Communist
political opposition. A number of NCP politicians,
imprisoned or exiled since the royal take-over in
1960, have subsequently been pardoned.
Recently Mahendra met with several NCP leaders
to discuss conditions for the return of NCP exiles
and their participation in Nepal's political sys-
tem. The King insists on NCP endorsement of Nepal's
constitution and neutral foreign policy. The NCP,
for its part, seeks assurance of a significant po-
litical role, increased governmental efforts to
stem Chinese Communist influence in Nepal, and the
release of former NCP prime minister B.P. Koirala.
Koirala, imprisoned since 1960, is the only leader
in sight capable of rallying the badly disorganized
NCP elements in Nepal. The King is reported to be
considering a face-saving means of releasing Koirala,
who has steadfastly refused to petition the King
for pardon.
Although it appears that the 48-year-old
Mahendra is making steady progress in recovering
from the heart attack he suffered last March, his
concern about his physical limitations may well in-
duce him to consider some redistribution of re-
sponsibility while retaining paramount authority.
There are indications that the 22-year-old crown
prince, who returns to Nepal in October following
a year abroad, will for the first time assume sig-
nificant official duties.
30 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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[Guatemala: Communist terrorists have warned
that the assassination of US Ambassador Mein is only
the first of a series of measures designed to force
the government to produce one of their leaders cap-
tured on 24 August.
The Rebel Armed Forces, in a bulletin issued
on 29 August, stated that the ambassador was "ex-
ecuted" when he resisted an attempt to kidnap him
in retaliation for the capture of its leader. The
Communists charged that the news of the capture has
been suppressed and that their leader is being held
in a police jail where past "victims of reaction"
were "tortured, broken, and assassinated."
Meanwhile, the government is trying to apprehend
the ambassador's killers. House-to-house searches
in Guatemala City are continuing, the police are
rounding up known extremists, and the country's
borders have been sealed.
The congress, on 28 August, responded to the
assassination by unanimously approving a decree 25X1
calling for a state of siege, suspending political
and some civil liberties for. 30 days. A 9 p.m. to
5 a.m. curfew has also been imposed.
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Panama: President-elect Arias plans to leave
soon for travel in Germany, France, and the US prior
to his inauguration on 1 October.
News media backing his National
Union coalition have alleged recently that he will
inherit a $40-million debt from the Robles govern-
ment. Charges that the outgoing government has
squandered public funds in campaign support for de-
feated official candidates are probably true.
In Paris, Arias will be an official guest of
the French Government for three days. Although there
are no details on the purpose of this visit, the US
Embassy in Panama speculates that he may wish to
sound out French interest in plans for a new sea-
level canal and French economic assistance to Panama.
Arias' plans suggest that he believes the long-
disputed vote count for National Assembly deputies
will be resolved in his favor soon. He expects to
win more than two thirds of the assembly seats.
30 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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The United States Intelligence Board on 28 Au-
gust 1968 approved the following national intelli-
gence estimates:
NIE 22-1-68 "The Outlook for France"
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NIE 84-68 "Panama: Pros ects for Relations
with the US" 25X1
30 Aug 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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