CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011200110001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 23, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
23 May 1968
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No. 0163/68
23 May 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: The government takes a major step in deal-
ing iw th the crisis. (Page 2)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Prague apparently has given
Moscow some reassurance on sticking with the War-
saw Pact. (Page 3)
Middle East - Africa: A serious locust plague may
come this summer. (Page 5)
Italy: The Socialists' election losses may cause
them to look hard at taking part in the government.
(Page 7)
Communist China: Peking is seeking record amounts
of chemical fertilizer from abroad. (Page 8)
Haiti: Duvalier troops rout the invaders. (Page 9)
Panama: The government is looking for ways to
prevent an Arias victory. (Page 10)
Finland-USSR: Recent talks (Page 12)
Venezuela: Relations with East Europe (Page 12)
Mexico-USSR: Oil-drilling equipment (Page 12)
Chile: Wage stabilization (Page 13)
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NORTH
VI.TwAw
( Special F ce Camp
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Ben Het Fire Support Base
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?Quang Tri
fi Hue'
Hoi?An?
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C South Vietnam: Increased Communist shellings
of allied military bases continued on 22 May with.
the heaviest fire in the northern provinces.
Significant ground action was confined to the
northern provinces and included company-size en-
gagements southwest of Quang Tri city and near Hoi
An, the provincial capital of Quang Nam. The fight-
ing in Quang Nam may be part of a Communist offen-
sive
This campaign is to last through mid-June. It is
designed to neutralize US Special Forces camps in
the western and central part of the province and
to open up access routes to Da Nang for armored
vehicles and artillery.
The Communists are continuing to deploy lim-
ited numbers of tanks in western Kontum, according
to three South Vietnamese soldiers who recently es-
caped from the Communists. The men claim they saw
several enemy tanks four miles west of the US base
at Ben Het. These tanks could also be sent over
newly built roads against US Special Forces camps
at Dak Pek and Plei Djereng.
President Thieu has so far avoided a serious
clash with the military over his government changes
and may find increased support in the legislature.
Initial reaction to his appointment of Huong as
prime minister has been favorable among a number of
National Assemblymen, militant Buddhists, and labor
groups. Those who are not as enthusiastic seem to
be taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Thieu's influence in the Lower House is on the
upgrade. A newly formed voting bloc in the Lower
House appears to be generally sympathetic. Its 29
members, together with the 21-man Independent Bloc
already responsive to Thieu, bring the President
close to a working majority in the Lower House. The
US Embassy considers Thieu's growing influence in
this body the most important political development
so far in 1968.
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France: The government has taken a major step
toward dealing with the national strike crisis.
Premier Pompidou's offer to open a "dialogue"
with labor has been accepted by union leaders, thus
opening the way for a negotiated settlement of the
present crisis. There is no evidence at this point,
however, that workers will relinquish control of
occupied factories until their demands are met.
Talks between the government and union leaders
will eventually have to consider the views of the
French industrialists who are strongly opposed to
granting major concessions to labor. Leaders of
the powerful National Committee of French Employers
have decided to oppose any bilateral agreement be-
tween the government and the unions that would lead
to increased salaries for workers. The committee
believes increased labor costs would impair the
competitiveness of French firms in the Common Mar-
ket, a problem that is especially acute because
tariff reductions are scheduled for July.
In the negotiations, French workers may have
difficulty presenting a united front. Interunion
strains have appeared in recent days, and the pow-
erful General Confederation of Labor has attacked
non-Communist unions for not agreeing to its pro-
posals for a "common program." In addition, there
is some question as to whether the rank and file,
whose initiative led to the present situation, will
accept the decisions of their leaders.
The government's defeat of the opposition cen-
sure motion will probabl stren then its hand in
negotiating with labor. r~ I 25X1
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Prague seems to have
given Moscow some reassurance on Czechoslovakia's
future role in the Warsaw Pact.
At the close of Soviet Defense Minister Grech-
ko's visit from 17 to 22 May to Prague, Czechoslo-
vak Defense Minister Dzur stated that the Czecho-
slovak Army would participate in "fair-sized maneu-
vers" this summer. Earlier in the month, he had
said that only "staff exercises" would be held in
Czechoslovakia. He has now indicated that large-
scale exercises with big contingents of troops are
ruled out.
Dzur implied that the Grechko delegation had
understood Prague's reluctance to hold Warsaw Pact
exercises on Czechoslovak territory during the po-
litically sensitive period since January. Later,
Dzur said that the Soviet delegation had "avoided
any question" that would imply a "desire to inter-
fere in our problems or to give us particular ad-
vice. We talked as equals." The communique indi-
cates that the exchanges probably were not as cor-
dial as Dzur claims, but suggests that the Soviets
are still some distance away from using force to
get their way in Prague. Soviet troops, neverthe-
less, remain on Czechoslovakia's borders, presumably
to add weight to the words of visiting Soviet Pre-
mier Kosygin.
Kosygin may not be receiving much satisfaction
on political problems. The Czechoslovaks are pro-
ceeding with implementation of the party action
program as if a military threat did not exist. In
their most recent declarations, however, they have
paid attention to the need for controlling anti-
Communist political voices, while leveling their
attacks on the party conservatives. Non-party po-
litical "clubs," for example, continue to flourish.
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LOCUST PLAGUE THREATENS AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
? locust brooding area
Country threatened by locust plague
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Middle East - Africa: Much of the Middle East,
North and East Africa is threatened by a locust
plague.
The Desert Locust Information Service, spon-
sored by the UN Food and Agriculture organization,
has issued a "special warning" stating that even
maximum anti-locust efforts may fail to avert this.
The most dangerous situation is in Saudi
Arabia, where swarms are breeding that may invade
Iran, Pakistan, India, Sudan, Egypt, Yemen, South-
ern Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia this summer. A
second very dangerous locust breeding ground exists
in eastern Africa. In addition, swarms are likely
to move from the Algerian-Moroccan border area in-
to Mauritania, Mali, and Niger.
Unless breeding is soon controlled, crops in
these countries are almost certain to be severely
ravaged by the locusts. This could result in
greatly increased demands for emergency wheat ship-
ments to a number of countries, the starvation of
livestock, and food shortages contributing to so-
cial and political unrest.
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MONARCHISTS
NEO-FASCISTS
OTHERS
STRENGTH IN CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES
IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO ELECTIONS
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Italy: Losses by the Unified Socialist Party
in the recent election seem likely to cause its
leadership to take a hard look at the conditions
under which they can continue to participate in the
center-left coalition.
The Unified Socialist Party had hoped to re-
cover at least some of the 24 Chamber of Deputy
seats that were lost to the Proletarian Socialists
as a result of the 1964 secession. They not only
failed to do so, but lost three additional seats,
dropping from 94 to 91.
Although no alternative to some form of Chris-
tian Democratic - Socialist collaboration appears
feasible, it is uncertain at this time what form
this collaboration will take.
Communist gains and Proletarian Socialist stay-
ing power were displayed in the face of relative
economic prosperity and despite foreign Communist
developments contrary to the Italian party's stance.
The strength of the far left reflects in part the
absence of any other major opposition to the gov-
ernment. The Communists and the Proletarian Social-
ists evidently also attracted a large number of pro-
test votes from youth voting for the first time.
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.Communist China: Peking is seeking record
amounts of chemical fertilizer abroad.
A contract has been signed with the Japanese
for delivery during 1968 of about 2.7 million tons,
some 13 percent more than in 1967. Peking has been
negotiating for several months with its European
supplier, Nitrex, for up to three million tons,
500,000 tons more than Nitrex delivered in 1967. If
Nitrex supplies as much as three million tons,
China's expenditure for fertilizer imports this
year would reach about $200 million.
China's domestic fertilizer production has been
seriously disrupted by the Cultural Revolution. Out-
put in 1967 probably declined by at least ten per-
cent and possibly much more. Chou En-lai in a
speech on 2 February admitted that shortages of
chemical fertilizer might continue in 1968.
Even record purchases of chemical fertilizer
during 1968 probably will not prevent the year's
grain harvest from falling below the excellent 1967
yield. Much of the fertilizer bought in 1968 will
not arrive at the communes in time to be applied
to this year's crops, partly because negotiations
for fertilizer this year began many months later
than usual. A repetition of the exceptionally good
weather last year is unlikely. F
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[Haiti: The exile invasion force has been
routed by government troops and President Duvalier
appears to be as firmly entrenched as ever.
The Haitian Government claims that only 25
insurgents actually landed -at Cap-Haitien in north-
ern Haiti instead of the 50 originally reported.
Of these, five were killed and two were captured
when Haitian security forces regained control of
Cap-Haitien on 21 May. The remaining 18 members
have gone into hiding in the surrounding country-
side. There may be occasional skirmishes as mili-
tary units attempt to track them down.
President Duvalier appears convinced that the
US Government was somehow involved in the invasion
plans. This was reflected in a note delivered to
the UN yesterday requesting an urgent meeting of
the Security Council to discuss "this act of brig-
andage which could only have been carried out with
the tolerance of certain members of the United Na-
tions." The note complained that US warships were
in the area of Monday's invasion and protested what
it termed anti-Haitian propaganda by American news
media.
Duvalier may be concerned that Haitian exiles
still in the Bahamas may attempt to join up with
remnants of the invasion force put to flight by his
troops. There is no indication, however, that the
exiles are presently prepared to undertake such an
action.
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Finland-USSR: The communique issued after the
recent talks between Finnish Social Democratic and
Soviet Communist Party leaders points up Moscow's
interest in fostering cooperation between Communist
and Socialist parties in non-Communist countries.
The Soviets put their seal of approval on the Fin-
nish party, thus officially ending a history of ill
will between the two parties. The Finnish Social
Democrats, in return, endorsed standard Soviet po-
sitions on Vietnam, the Middle East, European se-
curity, and recognition of the two German states.
As a result, the party may incur further resentment
from its right-wingers.
Venezuela: President Leoni is taking a direct
hand in expanding relations with Eastern Europe.
A presidential adviser says that an offer to ex-
change diplomatic representatives will be made to
Prague within a few days. A decision has also been
made to re-establish relations with Moscow after a
number of preliminary steps are taken, such as
signing a commercial agreement and establishing
commercial missions.. These moves are the latest
in a series over the past year that indicate Ven-
ezuela is trying to exploit Soviet Bloc interest
in diplomatic relations to expand trade relations
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with Eastern Europe.
C Mexico-USSR: Eight Soviet technicians who
have spent three weeks studying Mexican oil pro-
duction methods were probably also promoting Soviet
oil-drilling equipment. Soviet turbodrills pur-
chased by Mexico in 1964 are no longer believed to
be functioning. the Soviet delegation
Imay also have
men interested in viewing the USS drilling equip-
ment that has been more satisfactory for the Mex-
ican petroleum industry. F77 1
(continued)
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Chile: Passage of the wage readjustment bill
will add nearly $30 million to the budget deficit.
This measure, enacted on 19 May after more than
six months of controversy, will strengthen infla-
tionary pressures. In the first four months of
1968, the cost of living rose 12.9 percent, sub-
stantially ahead of the rate last year. The Senate
eliminated provisions for automatic wage adjustments
in 1969 and 1970, so the government will be forced
to repeat this difficult legislative process durin
those two election years.
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