CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A007600310001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 23, 1964
• Content Type: REPORT

)310001-3
23 April 1964
Copy No.
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
RELATING TO NATIONAL SECURITY
GROUP 1 State Dept. review completed
EXCLUDED FROM DECLASSIFICATIONNGRhDING P SECRET
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23 April 1964
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
CONTENTS
1, Laos: Military and political leaders search for
way out of impasse. (Page 1)
Panama: Arnulfo Arias' widening lead in presi-
dential campaign may provoke widespread violence.
(Page 4)
5. British Guiana - UK : British Labor Party may
oppose government's plans for British Guiana.
(Page 5)
6. Zanzibar: Foreign Minister Babu's African rivals
plotting his ouster. (Page 6)
8, Burma: Ne Win courts trouble with Buddhist op-
position. (Page 9)
9. Notes: USSR; Chile-Cuba; West Germany - Com-
munist China. (Page 10)
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
23 April 1964
*Laos:Vientiane remains outwardly calm, as Lao
military and political leaders continue their efforts to
resolve the current crisis
he coup group has had little success in its ef-
forts to win support from key military leaders out-
side the capital. The majority of the Lao generals
probably are waiting for a cue from General Phoumi
who is now in Vientiane and in contact with the revolu-
tionary committee. Several of the generals were
slated to meet Wednesday in Savannakhet, possibly to
plan a countercoup to be implemented if Phoumi fails
to resolve the crisis through negotiation.
resign it would "suffer the consequences."
t:l'he Xing said he had dissuaded Souvanna, who
returned to Vientiane late yesterday, to stick it out as
premier. Savang also intimated that he had charged
Phoumi to clean up the situation in Vientiane, by force
if necessary`s
Meanwhile, coup leaders express strong opposi-
tion to any return to the status quo ante. General
Siho, in a press interview yesterday, expressed hope
that agreement could be reached "without unnecessary
bloodshed," but warned that if the coalition did not
"stupid" and "destructive"
Eking Savang yesterday affirmed to Western diplo-
mats his continued recognition of Souvanna's coalition
government and characterized last Sunday's coup as
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Panama: Arnulfo Arias? widening lead in the
campaign for the 10 Ma.y presidential elections may
provoke severe and widespread violence.
US Ambassador Vaughn comments that Arias,
an "egocentric mystic who regards himself as a man
of destiny," is popular among the poorer classes and
has become a symbol of the widespread and growing
popular resentment against Panama's entrenched
oligarchy. The ambassador believes that the oli-
garchy, which is dividing its support between two
presidential candidates, is near desperation and is
likely to pull out all stops in its effort to defeat Arias.
Shooting incidents involving followers of Arias
and Marco Robles, the government candidate backed
by the larger segment of the oligarchy, have already
occurred. Still more serious violence is expected.
The ambassador reports that a popular uprising
could occur if the government uses its control of the
election apparatus and the security forces to prevent
an Arias victory.
The ambassador believes that the erratic and
unpredictable Arias would run a one-man, misman-
aged administration. A victory for Robles, on the
other hand, would prolong the power of the same
interests which have long misgoverned the country.
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British Guiana - UK: I-In the Commons debate
scheduled for 27 April the Labor Party may take a
stand against the government's plan for preindepend-
ence proportional representation elections in British
Guiana.
,Labor's chief whip has told the US Embassy that
there is strong opposition among Labor Party MPs
to proportional representation as un-British, unwork-
able, and, blatantly anti-Jagan. He admitted, however,
that labor does not have an agreed alternative solu-
tion.
,The Colonial Office is now considering holding
the Guianese elections in November. An official
speculated that a Labor government might decide not
to stop the "already running machinery" despite its 25X1
disa roval.
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Zanzibar: Foreign Minister Babu's absence has
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encouraged his African rivals within the regime to
plot his ouster and the neutralization of his predomi-
nantly Arab supporters.
Babu is scheduled to stop in Pakistan today for
a short stay. He is en route home from a five-day
visit to Indonesia. His absence has given rise to
rumors that he will not be allowed to return, that his
lieutenants are to be transferred abroad, and that his
security chief may be removed from command.
Increasing animosity between Arabs and Africans
within the regime could lead to the ouster of Babu's
pro-Chinese Arabs. Vice President Hanga and other
pro-Soy-let Africans would then presumably take con-
trol.
u
Karume recently has reversed. his hostile atti-
tude toward the US, and has reportedly ordered. anti-
US demonstrations and press attacks to cease.
The 200 Tanganyikan police on Zanzibar might
be a factor favoring the "Africans" Tanganyika's
leftist Defense Minister Kambona almost certainly
would support his friend Hanga and President Karume.
On 18 April orders were issued in Tanganyika
to evacuate the Tanganyikan force, but the order was
rescinded after Karume--with Hangars approval--
made a quick trip to Dar-es-Salaam. Kambona and
another Tanganyikan minister arrived in Zanzibar
yesterday, and President Nyerere was expected mo-
mentarily.
(continued)
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The outcome of an Arab-African struggle is un-
certain, however. Babu is one of the most able men
in Zanzibar. His followers are the best disciplined
and his Cuban-trained security force appears to con-
trol most of the automatic weapons.
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Burma. Ne Win is courting trouble with his Bud-
dhisf -opposition at the same time that his insurgency
problem is growing.
On 18 April Ne Win warned Buddhist monks to
concentrate on religion and stay out of politics, and
announced that all Buddhist organizations would be
required to register with the government. Hitherto,
Ne Win has carefully avoided a confrontation with the
Buddhist clergy, who have been carrying on the only
significant overt Opposition to the regime.
The monks are capable of generating widespread
discontent among the general population. Twenty
million of Burma's 24 million people are Buddhists.
Ethnic insurgents in the Kachin State in northern
Burma are expanding their operations and gaining
broad popular support. Government control for some
time has been limited to principal garrison towns and
isolated ogtposts in this area- F-
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NOTES
USSR: The announced economic results for the
first quarter of 1964 show that performance continues
to be sluggish. Industrial output increased at only
about 8 percent--the lowest rate claimed thus far in
the Seven-Year Plan (1959-65). Chemical production
achieved the largest increase of the major industrial
sectors, but it has yet to reach the tempo required if
the new plans adopted last December are to be met.
There was some improvement in the output of con-
sumer durables such as washing machines and re-
frigerators, but processed foods production fared 25X
badly, reflecting the poor agricultural performance
last year,
Chile-Cuba: Che Guevara,
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has boasted that Chile
will be the next Latin American country to enter "our"
camp. This statement presumably reflects confidence
on Guevara's part that Communist-Socialist candidate
Salvador Allende will be victorious in the presidential
election on 4 September. Allende, who has visited
Cuba often and is closely acquainted with,Cuban lead-
ers, is receiving campaign funds from Havana, I-
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West Germany - Communist China: a senior of -
ficial of the West German Consulate General in Hong
Kong will visit the Canton trade fair next week and
may go on to Peiping. The official has indicated that
the visit does not mean any important change in Ger-
man policy, but is intended to counter criticism from
German business and press groups who blame the
government for the decline in Sino-German trade.
The visit was to have taken place earlier, but was
postponed to avoid possible misunderstanding at the
time of Paris' recognition of Peiping..-71
23 Apr 64
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FRI.
NATIONAL INTELLIGE E ESTIMATE
The United States Inte igence Board approved
the following national int ligence estimate on 22 April
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ME 11-4-64: " in Trends in Soviet Military
olicy "
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