CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A007500420001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 18, 1964
• Content Type: REPORT

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18 March 1964
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CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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State Dept.
44
review completed
GROUP 1
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downgrading and
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18 March 1964
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
CONTENTS
3. Communist China: Russians at IAEA predict Chi-
nese Communist nuclear detonation in a year.
(Page 4)
4. Chile: Communists won over rural labor vote in
Sunday's by-election. (Page 5)
5. Rumania-USSR: USSR will not resist Rumania's
program to develop a steel industry. (Page 6)
7. Brazil: Several Brazilian leaders critical of
Goulart's speech on reforms. (Page 8)
8. Notes: Panama;
UN Trade Confer
(Page 9)
Dahomey; Cuba -
USSR-Zanzibar.
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*Communist China: ussian delegates to the In-
ternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) think that
the Chinese Communists already have a nuclear de-
vice and will be capable of exploding it in no more
than a year,1
he current US estimate, prepared in July 1963,
is th t a Chinese nuclear explosion of some kind is
nossihle in 1964 but is more likely to occur in 19651
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Chile: The decisive factor in Sunday's by-election
appears to have been the Communist-Socialist Popular
Action Front's (FRAP) success in winning over the ru-
ral labor vote.
The Communists are openly boasting that this is
the case, and the US Embassy reports that analysis
of the election figures bears out their claims. Leaders
of the two losing parties--the Christian Democrats
(PDC) and the Democratic Front (FD)--also say that
FRAP's victory is largely traceable to the Communists'
ability to organize and indoctrinate rural workers.
Senator Eduardo Frei, the PDCts presidential can-
didate, tried to put the best face on things by saying
that he was "reasonably satisfied" with his party's im-
proved showing in Curico, but believes that the big
winner on the national scene was Senator Salvador
Allende, FRAP's presidential candidate.
Frei added that an Allende victory would mean
"another Cuba here." Allende himself estimates that
the Curico victory will be worth something like 100,000
additional votes in the presidential election next Septem-
ber.
The resignation from the presidential race of FD's
Senator Duran in the wake of the Curico debate casts
doubt on the future of the coalition, and may foreshadow
its disintegration. I
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Rumania-USSR: The USSR apparently has decided
not to resist Rumania's program to develop a steel in-
dustry.
Beginning next year, according to a high Rumanian
official, the Soviet Union will supply a large blooming-
slabbing mill and a rolling mill promised in 1960 for
the great metallurgical combine being built at Galati,
as well as increased quantities of iron ore.
The official also said that relations among mem-
bers of the Soviet-sponsored Council for Economic
Mutual Assistance (CE MA) will be conducted on a bi-
lateral basis for a long time. Multilateral arrange-
ments are impossible now, he said, because of "dif-
ferences" among CEMA members.
Moscow had opposed construction of the Galati
complex on grounds that it was economically question-
able. Its agreement to assist in the project probably
was intended in part to forestall a further aggrava-
tion of Soviet-Rumanian differences. The Soviet lead-
ers also may have decided that their failure to partic-
ipate in an important bloc project in which several
Western interests apparently hope to play a major
role would have undesirable political effects.
The Russians probably hope by this agreement
to influence Bucharest's future attitude in the Sino-
Soviet conflict, which is now moving toward new
climax. 1
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Brazil: Several Brazilian leaders have been highly
critical of President Goulart's 13 March demagogic
speech on reforms.
There has also been some muttering in congres-
sional circles about starting impeachment proceed-
ings against the President on charges of his having
made "seditious statements" in his speech. It is doubt-
ful, however, that much support can be stirred up for
such a move.
Goulart's speech last week, followed by his re-
ported request to Congress on 15 March to approve a
plebiscite on basic reforms, promises to widen
the gulf that now separates the executive and the legis-
lature. Disagreement over basic reforms has long
been a chief bone of contention between Goulart and
Congress, despite the government coalition's paper
majority in the Chamber of Deputies. I
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NOTES
*Panama: The efforts yesterday of two Panamanian
radio stations to arouse public feeling on the canal is-
sue may have ushered in a new period of tension. One
of these stations directly accused President Chiari of
bowing to the US. The other hinted that there is grow-
ing uneasiness among student and other nationalist
groups. Panama's ultranationalist ambassador to the
UN, Aquilino Boyd, also returned suddenly to Panama
yesterday and can be expected to urge that the canal
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Dahomey: A reaction against France May be de-
veloping in the wake of last week's demonstrations by
northern tribal followers of ousted. President Maga.
Some Dahomeans, notably military elements who
played a key role in easing Maga out last October,
apparently see France's hand behind the disturbances
and believe?despite the lack of any substantiating
evidence--that Paris is attempting to restore Maga.
The deputy commander of the local gendarmerie has
indicated that Dahomean military leaders intend to
press for the early removal of the 800 French troops
now stationed in Dahomey. I
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*Cuba--UN Trade Conference: he Cuban delega-
tion to the UN Conference on Trade nd Development
which convenes in Geneva next week will charge that
US economic pressures against Cuba violate the pur-
pose of the conference and United Nations principles,
The delegation, headed by Che Guevara, is also said
to be set to advocate "free commerce" among all na-
tions, urging in particular that neutral nations expand
their trade with the blCia
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*USSR_ Zanzibar: The USSR appears to have shipped 25X1
a small quantity of military equipment to Zanzibar--
the first such shipment to that country. The Soviet
ship Faizabad, which declared for Iraq when it left the
Black Sea, arrived in Zanzibar on 17 March, There
is no indication of the type of military equipment in-
cluded in the cargo, but a few trucks were carried on
deck, I
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