STAFF SUGGESTIONS FOR MEMORANDA TOPICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A001200010015-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2005
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: December 7, 1967
• Content Type: MF

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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
7 December 1967
MEMORANDUM FOR: ONE BOARD AND STAFF
(Internal ONE Only)
FROM Chief, Estimates Staff
SUBJECT Staff Suggestions for Memoranda Topics
Herewith another edition of "Staff Suggestions for Memoranda
Topics." Again, this is a compendium of proposals by the Staff
Chiefs set down as made. This time we will be able to compare
the new list with an old one and with the record of performance.
It is hoped that the resultant discussion -- scheduled for 11+00
hours 14 December -- will deal not only with the merits of the
topics suggested but also with the uses of a quarterly exercise
of this type and the old problem of what kind of memoranda we should
write, among other things.
1. The Shape of Revolutions to Come in Latin America
Social and economic pressures are continuing to grow
in many Latin American countries, but prospects do not seem
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bright for rapid change and reform under present political institu-
tions. The Communist left is neither large nor strong in most of
the countries. What are the forces, groups and leaders most
likely to undertake revolution in the foreseeable future?
2. The Political Role of the Latin American Military
Most Latin Americans now live under governments headed
by military men or recently retired military men. How did this
come about? How much do these governments differ, one from another?
Generally speaking, what are they aiming to do? How effective is
their performance? Are such governments likely to become less --
or still more -- common in the future? What will be the relationship
between them and the various revolutionary ideas and forces emerging
in the area?
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Latin America: The Politics of Development
What have been the political conditions most conducive
to economic progress? Are representative governments in Latin
America seriously inhibited in the formulation and execution of
practical economic policies? How severe a hindrance are the
"autonomous" government corporations? Is it politically feasible
to replace or reform them? Can military government sustain the
degree of backing from various interest groups which would seem
necessary for faster rates of economic growth? How much have
economic problems to do with the replacement of democratic govern-
ments by non-democratic ones? Is it really much easier for a
country to stick to representative government if it has lots
of oil?
II. AF STAFF
5. Renewed Soviet and Chinese Interest in Africa
An analysis of the ups and (mostly) downs of Soviet and
Chinese programs in black Africa over the past several years and
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of their most recent moves, particularly Soviet military aid to
Nigeria and Chinese promises to build the Tan-Zam-railway. Are
these indicative of new wrinkles on old policies or of signifi-
cant new departures?
6. The ABC's of US Aid Programs in Africa
We intend to analyze the FY 1967 aid program and the
FY 1968 program proposed to Congress last spring. We are in-
terested in classifying the types of assistance that fall under
the Aid legislation (e.g., project loans) and the types that do
not (e.g., PL-480), and in clarifying such Administration concepts
as "countries of concentration," "regional projects," and "multi-
lateral aid." We will make some judgments on the purposes of the
US Assistance Program, the actual benefits we derive from it, and
the likely consequences of the sharp curtailment of assistance to
Africa that apparently is shaping up for the next year or two.
7. Toward Understanding Military Coups in Black Africa
We intend to study the causes and consequences of the
spate of military seizures of power in black Africa, which numbered
seven in the 16 month period, November 1965 to March 1967. Some
of them (Ghana and Nigeria) led to significant political changes;
but in 1 or 5 cases, there was no major change in basic orientation
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of domestic and foreign policy. Will these military rulers stay
on indefinitely, how widespread will military coups be in the
upcoming year, and what are the consequences of the phenomena
for the US?
8. The Horn of Africa
Recent developments In the Horn, reflecting in part the
outcome of the June Middle East crisis and the closing of the Suez
Canal, would indicate that perhaps our May estimate was too gloomy
in some conclusions. The formerly politically aroused population
of French Somaliland has returned to its usual torpor; the new
government of the Somali Republic is making an apparently sincere
effort to improve its relations with Kenya and Ethiopia; and the
Emperor's security forces are doing rather better than anticipated
in combatting the Eritrean insurgency. Do these events indicate
a basic trend toward peace in the Horn or will the old tensions
inevitably reemerge?
9. Trends and Prospects in Relations between East and
West Europe
10. The New Left in Europe
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IV. NE STAFF
11. New Trends in Indian Communism
In 1964, the Communist Party of India split in two.
Following the 1967 Indian elections, these parties, although
getting slightly fewer total votes than in previous elections,
succeeded in joining multiparty governments in four states.
Communists have been particularly active in West Bengal and Kerala.
In recent months a third Communist Party has appeared; this is
farther to the left than either of the others. We propose in
this memorandum to examine the prospects for communism in India,
to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the several Communist
parties. We also propose to discuss the Soviet and other interna-
tional Communist attitudes toward these parties..
12. Monarchies and Modernization
Some years ago we, and many other Middle Eastern analysts,
were inclined to give rather poor odds on the viability of Middle
Eastern monarchs and on their capacities for coping with pressures
against them. Yet most of them have survived. This paper would
look at the situations of the six monarchies -- Morocco, Libya,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Afghanistan -- with a view to
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determining the elements of their success, particularly of any
features common to a number of them.
13. Algeria
Boumediene's regime took an uncharacteristically active
part in the Arab-Israeli crisis of the past summer. It continues
to be among the more radical governments of the region and has
problems of a domestic and international nature. This memorandum
would examine the internal situation, the possibilities of a change
in regime, and the likely nature of a successor. It would also
cbal with Algeria's problems with its neighbors, particularly
Morocco, which fears that Algiers is trying to establish a govern-
ment in its own image in Rabat.
V, FE STAFF
14. The View from Hanoi
Plans are underway to do a memorandum on possible options
facing Hanoi during 1968. January?
15. The War in Laos
I
from military and political angles. Should be able to break some
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has started a definitive look at this sideshow,
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new ground on how much this effort is costing the North Vietnamese --
January.
16. Chinese Internal Politics
We will strike when the time is ripe.
17. China's Nuclear Strategy
An experimental piece by
currently in
preparation. Speculative overview of options facing Chinese nuclear
strategists. Target end of December.
18. Asian Communism
New subject, broached tentatively. Some interesting
developments in Communist parties outside of Vietnam and China.
Perhaps they can be v oven together.
VI. SOV STAFF
19. Sino-Soviet Military Relations
Tension along the Sino-Soviet frontier, a big Soviet
military buildup, Soviet ground forces in Mongolia -- what does
it all mean? Is it just more and better border security, Moscow's
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prudent reaction to the cultural revolution? Or is something
more interesting, perhaps more ominous involved? And what next --
how many strategic missiles along the border? how many troops
withdrawn from the European part of the Soviet Union? how, in
fact, does the Soviet leadership view the problem of military
Ready
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for publication late in January. $2.50, paperback.
20. The Collective Leadership in the USSR
How collective and how durable is the present peculiar
leadership situation in Moscow? Rumors of big changes are currently
making the rounds -- is it true that Kosygin is likely soon to retire?
How much has Brezhnev been able to enhance his authority? How
stable can a collective be? This paper, by resident Sovietologist
examines these and other questions with penetrating
insight into the strange world of politics in the Kremlin. Ready
for publication in mid-January. $2.95. No discount to jobbers.
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