CHRONO (1 JULY THRU 10 SEPTEMBER 1979)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000200210001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 65
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 10, 1979
• Content Type: LIST

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CHRONO (1 July thru W September 1979)
Subject: Request to Accept
1 Memo to C/NFAC/Admin, from
2 Memo for the Record from
u
Subject: Dinner Meeting of 9 July 1979 (NFAC 3637-79)
4 Memo to DCI fromi dated 13 July 1979
Subject: Activities/Events/Trends in China of Possible
Interest to Policymakers (NFAC 3695-79)
u
y
979
Subject: Request for Damage Assessment Inputs (NFAC 3702-79)
25X1 6 Warning Memo fro dated 23 July 1979
Subject: Warning Assessment: China (NFAC 3835-79)
25X1 7 Memo to DCI from dated 1 August 1979
Subject: Vice President's China Trip (NFAC 4040-79)
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9 Note to Helene Boatner (D/OPA) fron.
No Subject
10 Note to Huberman (AD/OSTP) from
Transmitting papers
12 Note to DD/NFA from
Re leave plans
dated 2 July 1979
(NFAC 3476-79)
dated 11 J
ly 1979
dated 6 August 1979
dated 8 August 1979
dated 10 August 1979
13 Warning Memo from dated 24 August 1979
gus
Subject: DCI Review -- 31 August (NFAC 4620-79)
14 Memo to DD/NFAC from
15 Memo to C/Clearance Div/OS, from dated 4 September 1979
Subject: Request for an Exception for VNE Badge for Michel Oksenberg
(NFAC 4654-79)
Subject: Chinese Military Todernization(NFACY4785-79)
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(RES) from dated 19 J
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1
dated 30 Au
t 1979
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NFAC #3476-79
2 July 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, NFAC Administrative Staff
VIA Coordinator for Academic Relations, NFAC
Director of Security
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National Intelligence Officer for China
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Assistant National Intelligence Officer for
USSR-EE
SUBJECT Request to Accept Invitation
1. We request approval to accept an invitation from Professor
Vladymir Petrov of the Sino-Soviet Institute of George Washington
University to attend a dinner at Airlie House on the evening of
Monday, 9 July. This dinner will be held at the conclusion of the
opening day of a week-long joint conference on Asia and Problems
of Detente sponsored by the Sino-Soviet Institute for a number of
Soviet specialists from the Far East Institute, the Institute of
the USA and Canada, and the Oriental Institute of the USSR Academy
of Sciences. Although only US academic specialists will attend the
daily working sessions with the Soviets, a number of US officials
will attend the opening dinner, including officials of the Asian and
Pacific Bureau of State and Tom Thornton of NSC.
2. The Soviets in question include the following:
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Institute for the Far East, USSR Academy of Sciences
Dr. M.I. Sladkovsky, Director, Corresponding member of the Academy
(economic and security relations in Asia)
Dr. Alexander Yakovlev (international and security relations in Asia;
the PRC)
Dr. Victor Baryshnikov (Southeast Asia; the PRC)
Dr. Vitalii Lomykin (great powers bilateral relations; the PRC)
Dr. Nikolai Furmanov (the Indian Ocean; Far East economic relations)
Dr. Nikolai Vasiliev (Soviet-Japanese, US-Japanese relations)
Dr. Nikolai Titarenko (Soviet-Chinese relations)
Dr. Boris Krasilnikov (Africa; the Middle East)
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Institute for Oriental Studies, USSR Academy of Sciences
Dr. Georgii Kim, Deputy Director, Academician (international and
security relations in Asia; Korea) and/or
Dr. Nodari Simoniya (national-liberation movements; Soviet policies
in the 3rd World)
Institute for the United States and Canada Studies, USSR
Academy of Sciences
Dr. Vladimir Lukin (security in Asia and the USSR-US-PRC-Japan
quadrangle)
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko, editor, Japan Annual Review; CC CPSU International
Department, section chief for non-socialist Asia (Japan; Korea
and the USSR-US-PRC triangle)
Dr. Gaston J. Sigur, Chairman
George Washington University
Professor Parris Chang
Pennsylvania State University
Dr. Ralph Clough
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Professor Russell Fifield
University of Michigan
Professor Bernard Gordon
University of New Hampshire
Dr. William C. Lewis
George Washington University
Professor Richard L. Park
University of Michigan
Dr. Guy Pauker
The Rand Corporation
Professor Valimir Petrov, Conference Coordinator
George Washington University
Professor Leo Rose
University of California at Berkeley
Professor Donald Zagoria
Hunter College
4. Attendance at this dinner and contact with these important
Soviet China-experts would be likely to be quite useful, particularly
in view of the fact that we are about to begin preparation of a
national estimate on Sino-Soviet relations. We propose to be identified
by our official titles, but as working for the National Foreign
[[rr 2
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? ~l~~u'~Eiy~~'r~?U CkeiY~~~
25X1 Assessment Center.
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f~ Director of Security
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Chie , ministra ve to
p~ 3
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Distribution to NFAC 3476-79
Orig - Addressee
return originator
1 - C/NFAC/Admin
1 - NFAC/CAR
1 - D/S
1 - A/DCI/PA
1 - NI O / CH
1 - NIO/USSR-EE
1 - NFAC re
25X1 NIO/USSR-EE 4I sjb (2Ju179)
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 Approver Release
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11 July 1979
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SUBJECT: Dinner Meeting of 9 July 1979
USSR-EE, attended a dinner at Airlie House on
9 July 1979 in honor of a group of Soviet academicians who
were attending a conference on Asia and Problems of Detente
sponsored by the George Washington University Sino-Soviet
Institute. Present at the dinner in addition to the Soviets
were representatives of the host organization headed by
Dr. Gaston J. Sigur and the President of George Washington
University, Dr. Elliott, along with a large group of American
academicians active in the field of Sino-Soviet relations.
Following are highlights of the im ressions gained by Messrs.
Assistant NIO for Special
Studies, who was also present, is submitting a separate
memorandum which covers his conversation with Dr. Ivan Kovalenko
of the Institute for the US and Canada Studies, USSR Academy
of Sciences.
2. During the pre-dinner conversation,
an opportunity to talk with Dr. Sladkovsky and Dr.
and sat next to Dr. Sladkovsky during the dinner.
side of the table was Dr. Kovalenko.
3. 1
had
Baryshnikov,
On the other
They
talked about recent developments in China, which Dr. Baryshnikov
political ideology which they had been following for the past
20 years, and Baryshnikov did not dispute this. He impressed one
as being a fairly-solid student of developments in China, and a
person capable of looking at events without a heavy dose of Soviet
ideology. The theme of "great change" came up at several points
in the conversation, and Baryshnikov mentioned that he had been in
China (he spoke of.Sinkiang) at.some. point last fall.
suggested that the Chinese were apparently rejecting much of the
characterized as representing a "great change."
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6. pre-dinner conversation with Dr. Sladkovsky,
he noted that he had known CCP Vice Chairman Chen Yun as early as
1926 in Shanghai, where he, Sladkovsky, had been a student and
Chen Yun a labor leader. Sladkovsky remarked that he had recently
written an article on the Chinese economy in the Journal of the
Institute for the Far East and had received a letter from Chen Yun
which had commented favorably upon this article. Chen Yun had
invited Sladkovsky to visit China. Sladkovsky appeared to be
rather pleased at Chen Yun's new position as head of the PRC State
Council's Financial and Economic Commission.
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7. Sladkovsky said he had also known Chou Enlai for many
years, and regarded Chou as a rather weak and vacillating man.
According to Sladkovsky, Chou had gotten ahead because he had
never attempted to be more than number 2 or 3 and alsway adjusted
his position to accord with that of the number 1. Sladkovsky
argued.that because of Chou's close identification with Mao Zedong
during the Cultural Revolution, Chou had been personally
responsible for the deaths of many Chinese.
that as we saw it, Chou had used his close relationship withdMao
to do what he could to hold the country together during that very
troubled period. Sladkovsky held that we Americans always
attribute too much to Chou Enlai.
8. Later, during the dinner conversation, Sladkovsky
expressed doubt that China could achieve its agricultural goals,
e.g., grain production on the order of 400M tons per annum. He
doubted that mechanization could work, or that such a goal was
even economically desirable given the size of China's rural
population. Sladkovsky agreed, however, with the contention that
an increase in materiel incentives for the peasants would
stimulate increased agricultural production.
--- -----J ++ _?= 11411 ueen in Hong Kong,
and he replied affirmatively. i Icalled attention to the
energy, initiative, and hard working qualities by the Chinese
in Hong Kong and suggested that what the present leadership in
China was trying to do was to stimulate these same qualities on
the part of the Chinese people as a whole. .Sladkovsky did not
dispute this contention.
10. Toward the conclusion of the dinner, Dr. Sigur made a few
brief welcoming remarks. Dr. Sladkovsky then replied in effect
calling upon Russians and Americans to look to the future and to
work toward improved relations. Sladkovsky was interrupted during
these remarks by Dr. Kovalenko, who added to Sladkovsky's words
and evidently wanted to make it obvious to all that he, Kovalenko,
was the real power in the Soviet delegation and outranked Sladkovsky.
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11. Meanwhile, according to an account later passed on by
the American scholar Parris Chang to Dr. Titarenko, who
sat next to Chang and harrangued him in Chinese throughout the
dinner, was intent upon peddling a repetitive message about
Deng Xiaoping. Deng, according to Titarenko, was the main source
of anti-Soviet sentiment in the Chinese leadership, and was
allegedly opposed on this issue by many Chinese leaders, specifically
including Chen Yun and Li Xiennien as well as many in the Chinese
military. Titarenko, according to Chang, depicted Hua G.uofeng as
occupying an intermediate position on the Soviet question.
NI for China
A-NI0/USSR-EE
Distribution:
1 - NIO/CH
1 - A/NI0/USSR-EE
1 - NFAC/CAR
1 - D/S
1 - NFAC/Reg
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usti:;~ [ " 4S - 7
NFAC
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
13 July 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for China
SUBJECT Activities/Events/Trends in China of Possible
Interest to Policymakers
1. Action Requested: None; this memorandum is for your
information only.
2. Background: You requested that each NIO address the
above subject for his area of responsibility at the NIO meeting
scheduled for Monday, 16 July. I have a long-standing engagement
outside Washington on that date, and accordingly forward herewith
the observations I would otherwise have made orally at the NIO
meeting.
3. I believe that there are three aspects of Chinese policy
and outlook which deserve particular attention:
a. The question of continuity within the Chinese
leadership. Beijing's recently-concluded National People's
Congress session appeared to endorse much of the program and
philosophy for national development which we have attributed to
Deng Xiaoping--heightened pragmatism, separation of the Party
from management, diminished attention to ideology and the role
of Mao Zedong, emphasis on democracy (albeit of a "socialist"
nature) and rule of law, increased material incentives, continued
concentration on the "four modernizations as China's primary
task." Newly-appointed national leaders appear to be supportive
of this philosophy.
-- However, Deng Xiaoping himself may have been
critized for some of his policy initiatives, especially
with respect to Vietnam, the US, and the USSR. He has
said he will make no more foreign visits, and reportedly
wishes to retire.
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Distribution:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
ER
1 - DD/NFA
2 - N I O / CH
1 - NSC Coordinator
1 - NFAC Reg
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 SEN4)ER WILL CHECK CLtMCATION TOP AND BOTTOM
UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND
I
IO USSR EE
2
IO CH
3
4
5
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks :
Attached is a self-explanatory request fo
inp7its for a consolidated response to the
Office of Security. Similar requests hay
been levied on the other area NIOs amd th
NIO/PE. Please review sections pertaini
to you area and forward comments to RES.
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
/K
/of
]
proM~ 4~~as 20 5/?d#U Dt~31 dDP
In
b
N
g
00
 RES/NFKC
SUBJECT: Request for Damage Assessment Inputs
to the Office of Security.
1. Attached is a Damage Assessment Request from the
Office of Security regarding the Intelligence Community Staff
sponsored document, "Perspectives for Intelligence 1976-1981,"
dated October 1975, copy attached. It is requested that you
review this document and/or circulate it within your component
and provide comments to this staff by COB Thursday, 19 July
so that we may prepare a consolidated response for forwarding
view of
the details on
the functioning
of the
Community
contained in
Executive Orders
11509
and 12036, the publivation in unclassified form of Director
of Central Intelligence Directives in 1976, and other dis-
closures of the past few years; this document does not appear
to contain much in the way of startling revelations. It is
necessary, however, to take a hard look at it to determmne
that, if any, damage will resillt from its use as a basis for
2. In
Intelligence
an article in The Leveler.
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IiJUL1979
MORANDU.1 FOR: Deputy Director, National Foreign
Assessment Center
Acting Director of Security
SUBJECT: Damage Assessment Request
REFERENCE: Perspectives for Intelligence 1976-1981,
USIB/IRAC-D-22.1/44
1. The Office of Security has been advised that the
referenced document, a CIA publication, is to be the basis
for an article that will appear in the August 1979 issue
of The Leveler, a London, England based publication. The
document was received by the magazine through the mail.
The magazine is now attempting to obtain photographs of
former CIA Director William Colby, radio masts, SIGINT
bases and the U-2 Airplane to supplement and enhance the
2. It is requested that your Office prepare a damage
assessment report on the document, "Perspectives for Intelli-
gence 1976-1981," dated October 1975, copy attached.
3. Your early response to this request would be
appreciated.
xi
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 National Intelligence Officers 23 July 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
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National Intelligence Officer
for China
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1. Attached is the assessment prepared on the basis of
Community views expressed at the warning meeting held on 18 July.
This memorandum has not been coordinated with the participants
but is being circulated among them.
2. The next warning meeting will be held on Monday, 20
August at 1400 hours in room 7E-62 CIA Head uarters. Plea
provide the name of your representative to
prior to COB Friday, 17 August 1979.
Attachment
As Stated
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
. Warning Assessment: China
Distribution
State -
Col. Jack B. Churchill
Major Wally Astor
Lt/Cdr. Albert Aldo
NSA
Army
Navy -
25X1 DIA -
SWS -
Mr. Douglas J. MacEachen
Internal
1 - DDO/DCEA~
1 - Each NIO
1 - Each Office Director
1 - NFAC/RES/RSG
1 - NITO/CH
1 - SRP
1 - ES/PB
2 - NIO/CH
1 - PBC
1 - NFAC Reg
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SECRET
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Nationol Intelligence Officers 23 July 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA Deputy Director for National r-,/"
Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer rL,
for Warning
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National Intelligence Officer
for China
SUBJECT Monthly Warning Assessment: China
1. The Indochina Situation
Despite reports of Sino-Vietnamese clashes analysts at
the 18 July meeting did not anticipate renewed hostilities between
China and Vietnam in the near term, and noted a considerable
reduction in Chinese forces adjacent to Vietnam, down to 100,000
troops and 250 aircraft vs. 200,000 Vietnamese troops. It was
suggested, however, that we should check on whether the Chinese may
have established large supply dumps near the border to permit a
rapid buildup if and when teaching Vietnam a second lesson is
decided upon. Anti-Vietnamese resistance continues in Kampuchea
sustained by supplies sent via Thailand, and Vietnamese forces are
also encountering some logistical difficulties due to the weather.
Vietnam nevertheless still has the military advantage, and as a
result two Vietnamese divisions may have been withdrawn from
Kampuchea until after the monsoon. Analysts did not rate highly
the prospects for a political settlement in Kampuchea as matters
now stand.
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10 NFAC 4040-79
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
1 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Deputy Director for National Foreign
Assessment
a n n e igence er
for China
SUBJECT : Vice President's'China Trip
REFERENCES . A. Your Memorandum, dated 31 July 1979,
Same 'Subject (ER 79-1762)
B. Your Memorandum, dated 31 July 1979,
Subject:
Vice Presidential Trip (ER 79-1762/1)
C. Briefing Book, dated August 1979,
Subject: Memorandums in Support of the
Vice President's Trip to China
1. Action Requested: None, for information only.
2. Background: In your account of your conversation with
the Vice President on 31 July, you mentioned getting together a
combination of written materials on China which the Vice President
could take with him and read on the plane, and in addition provide
an oral briefing. Both of these steps have already been taken.
The referenced briefing book containing memorandums in support of
the Vice President's trip to China is on its way to the White
House. Assistant NIO for China, has also
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4. The memorandum entitled "China: Domestic Political Overview"
contains an analysis of the status of Deng Xiaoping. The memorandum
entitled "China's Military Posture and Modernization" deals in
general terms with the Chinese response to the Soviet military
posture along the Sino-Soviet and Sino-Mogolian borders, but does
not specifically refer to the Soviet military buildup in those
regions since last March as I reported to you in my latest warning
memorandum. I will see that this material is made available to
the Vice President via Denis Clift within the next few days.
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All portions of this memorandum are SECRET.
Distribution
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1-ER
1 - DD/NFA
2 - NIO/CH
I - NFAC Registry
2
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? Copy
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
2 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Deputy Director for National Foreign
Assessment
FROM
SUBJECT Vice President's China Trip
REFERENCES A. Your Memorandum, dated 31 July 1979,
Same Subject (ER 79-1762)
B. Our Memorandum,. dated 1 August 1979,
Same Subject
1. Action Requested: None, for your information only.
2. Attached is a copy of the memorandum which was sent to
the Vice President today covering the Soviet and Chinese military
buildup along their borders since February/March of this year.
The Vice President specifically requested this information.
Attachment
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THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
6 August 1979
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NOTE FOR: Helene Boatner
Apropos of our conversation of
6 August, I don't know how complicated
it might be to shift someone from OER
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to OPA, but how about
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 THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers 8 August 1979
NOTE FOR: Mr. Ben Huberman
Associate Director/OSTP
National Intelligence Officer for
China
Herewith are some comments by OER
on the Department of Energy paper, which
you may find of some interest and/or use.
Attachment
as stated
0
/0
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Page
Appendix A. " Items' to b'e' Cor3r'e'c`t' in` DOES s, Back rbuh'd` Pa ~r ;
Item
Given
installied genes 40,000 MW at
erating capacity, yearend 1978.
1 developed hydro-- 13 MW
electric capacity
Figure Comments
50,000 MW 45,000 MW in large p is
plus 5,000 in small ro
plants
13rOQO MW
2 hydroelectric 39,000 MTV
potential of the 33;000 MW
Yellow River
2 hydroelectric 17,000 MTV
potential in Gansu 42,0.0.0 MW
(Kansu)., Qinghai.
(.Tsinghai), and
Xinjiang (Sinkiang).-
provinces
3 height of Gezhouba 27 m,
(o Chou-Pal dam
4 projects on Pearl
River
C.J ICE..
60m
Xinanjiang (Hsin An Chiang,
in Zhejiang (Chekiang) is
on the Fuzhun River
'FD
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Appendix B. Tables from NIM 79-10006J -G
Memorandums in Support of the
Vice President's trip to China
China: Hydroelectric Plants of 300 MW or Larger (U)
Plant
Location,
Capacity (MW)
Liujiaxia
Gansu, Huang He
1,225
Danjiankou
Hubei, Han Shui
900
Supongdong
Liaoning, Yalu Jiang
700 (shared
with North
Korea)
Xinanjiang
Zhejiang, Fuzhun Jiang
652
Dafengmen
Jilin, Sunghua Jiang
590
Gongzui
Sichuan, Dadu He
580
Zheji
Hunan, Si Shui
420
Haludao
Jilin, Yalu Jiang
400 (shared
with North
Korea)
Fengtan
Hunan
300
Bigou
Gansu, Jialing Jiang
300
Yanguo
Gansu, Huang He
300
Date of First
Generation
1969
1968
pre-1949
1959??
pre-1949
1971
1962
1960
1970
1970
1962 (U)
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LN!t 1 A
_
 U NCL S ~~
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Table B
China: Large Hydroelectric Plante Under Construction (U)
Name Pro_ vince Capacity (MW)
On Han Shui. Construction began in 1978; first generation
4 units is expected in 1982.
Baishan Jilin 900 . ? `
4 ""'
On the Hongshui He. It will supply 2.1 billion
x 100 MW annually. Construction began in 1975, andthefirstounitw
(first phase) is
schsi,.lni Fns _
'~Lac awn on the Chang Jiang. It will have two power
21 units plants and will'be?the largest hydropower project in China,
producing; 13.8 billion kWh per year upon completion. Con-
struction started In 1970; but technical snags, including the
unexpected problem of silting, caused suspension of work
from November 1972 to October 1974. The project is closely
related to future development of the Sanxia (Three Gorges)
and the Chang Jiang water diversion schemes.
Longyangxia'
Qinghai
1,600
Tahua
Yunnan
500
Tongchiang
Hunan
250 to 350
Wanan
Jiangxi
400
?
Wujiancdu
c..~t?,w...
630
2 x 210 MW
On Songhua Jiang. Construction started in 1975.
3 x 300 MW
The first units reportedly will be operating by 1982.
On Huang He. The 172-meter dam will be China's highest.
Upon completion it will generate as much as 6 billion kWh
per year. Longyang reservoir will regulate flow of water to
four existin
g power station
s, enabling them to produce another
500 million kWh per year. First generation is scheduled for
1983; construction started in 1978.
A low-head project near Kunming. It is scheduled for com-
pletion in 1982.
Construction was started in 1958 but the project was aban-
doned until 1978, when construction resumed.
Construction was started in 1978 for a planned completion
date of 1985.
On Wujiang Shui. Construction, which started in 1970, is
reportedly speeding up, and the first power generation
isilleixcpeck
ntedWhp shortly. When complete, it will generate 3.34
b?er year. It is pilot project in the utiliza-
tion of water resources in limestone areas. known for their
complex geology.
 Approved For R - re a-seff 5 0 1tP83BOOl OOROOO2OOZ1OO91:
ChinPlanned Major Hydroelectric Development Projects (U)
Project
Location
Capacity (MW)
On the Huang He
Daliushu
Ningxia
1,500
Longmen
Shaanxi-Shanxi
1,500
border
5 x 300 MW
Xiaolangdi
Henan
1,600
4 x 400 MW
On the Chang Jiang
,Baihepan
Yunnan
9,000 to 10,000
Jinpang
Sichuan
8,000 to 10,000
Sanxia
Hubei near
25,000
Yichang .25 x 1,000 MW plant will produce 120 billion kWh annually. Geological
survey work is nearly completed, but the dam site has not
Xiangjiaba
Yunnan
5,000 to 6,000
yet been selected. The first phase reportedly will have a
capacity of 10,000 MW.
Geological surveys reportedly are now being done.
)ther Projects
"Longdan
Hong Shui in
3,000
The cost is estimated at $972 million.
Guangxi
6 x 500 MW
Lubege
Unknown
600
No further details are available.
4 x 150
Qiancheng Chiao
Bong Shui in
800
No further details are available.
Guizhou
4 x 200 MW
Longtai
Yuan Shui in
3,000
Dam is to be 200 meters high to serve a 1,500-MW power
Jiangxi
plant in first stage, with eventual expansion to 3,000 M.
It will provide power for aluminum production at the site
of large bauxite deposits.
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tr l A CC !m
Notes
Geological surveys reportedly had not yet begun as of.
December 1978.
This multipurpose project will generate about 6 billion
kWh per year. Geological surveys reportedly were under
way in December 1978.
The plant will generate an average of 6.5 billion kWh an-
nually. Reservoir capacity is to be 12.7 billion cubic
meters but will be reduced to 3.8 billion by sediment.
No further details are available.
Probably the same as a planned 6,000-MW project called
Binjing on the Yalong Jiang.
The Chinese have said construction would start by 1981. The
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 Approved For Rel
ACTION: Please undertake to actions requested by
the DCI. If possible try to have the
response by noon 24 August in case the
DCI sees Brzinski on 25 August.
C/NFAC/AS
Date 27 July 79
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 Approver Release 2005/01106 : CIA-RDP83 OR000200210001-1
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
25X1 FROM
National Intelligence Officers
NOTE FOR: DD/NFA
10 August 1979
I plan to be on leave 13 thru 17 August.
25X1
My Assistant,)
here during that time.
cc: Acting DD/NFAC
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 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ~,/ Y ~t
National Intelligence Officers
25X1
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
24 August 1979
Assistant National Intelligence Officer
for China
25X1
SUBJECT Warning Assessment: China
1. Attached is the assessment prepared on the basis of
Community views expressed at the warning meeting held on
20 August. This memorandum has not been coordinated with the
participants but is being circulated among them.
2. The next warning meeting will be held on Monday,
17 September at 1400 hours in room 7E-62, CIA Headquarters.
Please provide the name of your representative to
TOP SECRET
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9
prior to COB Friday, 14 September 1979.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Attachment
As Stated
State
NSA
Army
Air Force
Navy
DIA
SWS
- U01. Jack B. Churchill
- Major Wally Astor
- Lt/Cdr. Albert Aldo
r. Douglas J. MacEachen
Upon Removal of Attachments
25X1 and CAVEATS, this memorandum
is downgraded to SECRET.
Approved For Release0ACY: C
/3
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 TOP SECRET
Appror Release 2005/01/1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
24 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA Deputy Director for National
National Intelligence Officer
for Warning
Assistant National Intelligence Officer
for China
SUBJECT Monthly Warning Assessment: China
1. The Sino-Soviet Situation
Analysts reviewed the recent evidence without appreciably
changing judgments regarding the evolution of the situation. They
noted that evidence was accumulating that a sizable faction within
the ministry of fcreign affairs was in favor of improvement of
relations, but there was no direct evidence these sentiments were
shared by top-level officials. They noted also that preliminaries
regarding the talks to be held in Moscow in September has not yet
been completed, and that the Soviets were continuing to increase
their military force along the border. On the other hand, they
took into account that each
side was positioning itself for an improvement of relations. At this
juncture the bottom line appeared to be that the jury was out and
the burden of proof remained on those who would argue that some
improvement of relations was in the cards. Tacit agreement continued
that any improvement in relations would be modest and. would take
considerable time to achieve.
2. The Indochina Situation
Analysts chewed over the available evidence regarding troop
movements and other indications of increased Chinese military interest
in the Vietnamese border. The general consensus was that the evidence
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 SECRET
Approved For ease 2005P01/06-1"CIA-RDP83130010 0029
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
30 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: John H. Hicks
Acting Director, National Foreign
Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer
for China
SUBJECT DCI Review -- 31 August
1. Following are the. topics which will be covered in the
China, East Asia, and Pacific section of the DCI Review on
31 August: .
China-Vietnam-Kampuchea (Huang Hua-Pol Pot meeting on
16 and 17 August, possibility of another Chinese
"lesson" against Vietnam, political situation.,
military situation, Sihanouk, food, refugees)
Sino-Soviet (Soviet military maneuvers in FE Military
Region, especially Mongolia, extremely limited chances
of improvement in Sino-Soviet relations as outcome
of talks scheduled to begin mid-September, with
tensions likely to increase if China again puts
pressure on Vietnam)
China -- Internal (evidence that forces centering on
Deng Xiaoping regaining ascendency and renewing
pressures on "radical" holdovers)
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON AUGUST 1985
SOURCES MULTIPLE
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SECRET
 Approved For lease 2009%q CIA-RD:P83B00100$000200210001-1
25X1
2. In addition to myself, the briefing will be nrP_GPnrPd by
All protions of this memorandum
are classified SECRET.
Distribution
1 - Addressee
1 - NIO/CH
1 - NFAC Reg
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 :CIA-RDP83B0010600200210001-1
?
SUBJECT: Agenda/Participants for Briefing of DCI by NFAC
on 31 August 1979, 2:00-3:30, Room 7 E 32
- Conventional
- Political
2:00 - USSR, Eastern & Western Euro
Military - Strategic
political-Economic
2:20 - China, East Asia & Pacific
China-Vietnam-Kampuchea
Sino-Soviet Relations
China
US-China Relations
2:40 - Near East & _South
Iran
Afghanistan
Libya-Egypt
Energy/Economics
3:00 - Africa
Preparations for Zimbabwe-
Rhodesia Conference
Movement toward normaliza-
tion of relations with Angola
NSC review of Horn situation
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 Approved For ,ase 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100?0200210001-1
3:15 - Latin America
Non-Aligned Movement: Outlook
for the Havana Summit
Central American Stability
(Nicaragua/El Salvador)
Strains in US-Argentine Relations
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 Approved For Release 4A9 ~ i -W P83B00100R000200210001-1
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? UNCLASSIFIED
31 August 1979
Estimated grain production statistics are not
completely comparable. PRC figures include soybeans
and potatoes, and the USSR includes pulses (dried peas and
beans).
Total Grain
56 96 58
Wheat
137 2 6
Rice 82* 216
84
Feed grain
"10 (1) ** (58) **
Soybeans ~5*
Potatoes (80) ** (16) **
~.i
*Includes 6 million tons of pulses.
**Not included in total grain estimate.
***Food value equivalent, which discounts actual production
(125 million tons) at a 5 to 1 ratio.
STAT
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/OF: CIA-RDP83B00100R0002002100 1-
CONFIDENTI NFAC 4654-79
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
25X1
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Clearance Division
Office of Security
VIA : Deputy Director, National Foreign T
Assessment Center
FROM
National Intelligence officer for China
SUBJECT Request for an Exception for VNE
Badge for Michel Oksenberg
REFERENCE : Our Memorandum, dated 29 December 1978,
Same Subject (NFAC 5903-78)
1. As stated in the referenced memorandum, the desirability
of Michel Oksenberg having a VNE badge remains the same.
2. I have checked with Mr. Oksenberg and he assures me that
he intends to visit the Agency much more frequently in the ensuing
months. These visits will be specifically in connection with the
travel by the President to the PRC next year, the travel in the near
future to China by a senior Cabinet officer, and the deliberations of
the NIE on Sino-Soviet (NIE 11/13-79). Moreover, Mr. Oksenberg wishes
to maintain a close consultative relationship with the NIO/CH and
with analysts in various offices of NFAC. He, himself, will be
providing political insights and guidance to personnel of this Agency.
3. Therefore, it is requested that an exception to the policy
of restricting VNE badges to people who visit the Agency at least 100
times per year be made in the case of Mr. Oksenberg.
Deputy Director, National Foreign
Assessment Center
ORIGINAL CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON SEPTEMBER 198`
All portions of this
CONFIDENTIAL Memorandum are CONFIDENT
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- a A t r b V " - .". it V
 Ori ppgAdc
ff,
Melease 2005/021/06: CIA-RDP83
1 - NFAC"Security Officer
a-' NIO/China Chrono
1 - NIO/China file G-Qtiv-v
1 - NFAC Registry
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 ,,Approved For Release /b
A-RDP831300.100R000200210001-1
?
29 December 1978
msNDRANDUM FOR: Chief, Clearance Division
Office of Security
FROM : James R. Lilley
NIO/China
SUBJECT
Request for an Exception for VNE
Badge for Michel Oksenberg
1. I request that an exception to.the policy of restricting
VNE badges to people who visit the Agency at least 100 times per
year be made in the case of Michel Oksenberg.
2. I recommend this for the following reasons:
A close and cooperative arrangement with
Mr. Oksenberg is essential to members of
NFAC and DDO. We anticipate more frequent
contact with him out here in this building,
especially during the intense period before
the arrival of the Chinese leaders in
Washington on 29 January 1979.
-- In our view, W. Oksenberg's role relative
to China is as important as an NFIB member.
His complete cooperation and candor are
important ingredients of our work. Were
we to deny him the VNE badge and oblige
him to go for the usual visitor procedure,
we would lose valuable time, degrade our
view of him in his eyes, and thus inhibit
the course of our work with him.
-- There will, in our view, be an intensifica-
tion of CIA interest in China over the next
year, and we are anticipating a good deal
more contact with Mr. Oksenberg.-
ORUGlNAL CL BY ig er
Ci DECL 1XREVW ON _... noo 198
EXT BYND 6 YRS BY
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 CIA-RDP83B00100R000200210001-1
SUBJECT: Request for an Exception for VNE Badge
for Michel Oksenberg
JAMES R. LILLEY
25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONCUR:
Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
NIO/China:JRL/tb (29 Dec 78)
-Distribution:
..Original - Addressee
-- The issue of a VNE badge at an early
All portions of this document are Confidential.
date would facilitate this.
1)- D/NFAC
- NFAC Registry
NIO/China File
NIO/China Chrono
- ORPA/China
1 - DDO/China
3JAN1979..
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 :_CIA-RDP83B00100R000200210001-1
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
FROM:
Chief
EXTENSION
NO.
Headquarters Security Branch
DATE 22 August 1979
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line across column offer each comment.)
1 DCI/AS/SO
7C-17 Hdas.
25X
2. IN It /~tslso
aF~a ~c s
I C/NIO ina
7E-62 Hdqs.
Att
J-
6d
t
'
X
'
n:
c
R
1
k
2"
4.
25
5.
iii
nw
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
FORM USE PREVIOUS Approved For Release 2005/01/06,
,~ 610 EDPREVIO CIA-RDP83B00100R00020021000
 Approved For ;5 A 1h0 1 - DP83B00101000200210001-1
22 August 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, National Intelligence Office, China
25X1
Security Officer, DCI Administrative Staff
25X1
25X1
FROM:
ie headquarters Security Branch
SUBJECT: Re-examination of Eligibility to Hold a VNE
Badge, in.the case of Michael OKSENBERG
1. In order to comply with the DCI's desire that
the number of Visitor,-No-Escort badges in use be
substantially reduced, action has been taken to limit
the issuance of new Visitor-No-Escort badges, and to
re-examine the eligibility of current Visitor-No-Escort
badge holders.
2. The criteria governing the issuance of a
Visitor-No-Escort badge are contained in paragraph ib,
which state--, in part, that "the number of
za visits to the Agency by a visitor must total at
least 100 per year, or-extraordinary protocol considerations
must be involved, e.g., visits by NFIB members." It is
our intention to strictly interpret the 100 visits a year
criterion, and to eliminate "protocol considerations" as
justification for issuance of Visitor-No-Escort badges
except under the most extraordinary circumstances.
visit frequency criterion is not met-by a Visitor-No-Escort
badge holder, the sponsoring office will be requested to
retrieve the badge and return it to the Office of Security.
Our records show-that the subject person entered the
Headquarters Building 3 time(s) from 1 January 1979 until
30.June 1979.
3. Paragraph 3 of -specifies that it th
4. It is requested that you retrieve the Visitor-No-
Escort badge held by the subject person and return it to the
Badge Office, 1E-0004, Headquarters Building, no later than
14 September 1979.
WARNING !N PEov~d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP8 B00100R000200210001-1
INTE! 1 I(;EPiCE SOURCES
min ?Y'.hTF-f7f?^, IiVlliii %/.-:1 ? ? ?i ,.s
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200210001-1
CONFERENCE ON ASIA AND PROBLEMS OF DETENTE
July 9 - 13, 1979
Delegates from the United States
Dr. Gaston J. Sigur, Chairman
George Washington University
Professor Parris Chang
Pennsylvania State University
Dr. Ralph Clough
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Professor Russell Fifield
University of Michigan
Professor Bernard Gordon
University of New Hampshire
Dr. William C. Lewis
George Washington University
Professor Richard L. Park
University of Michigan
Dr. Guy Pauker
The Rand Corporation
Professor Vladimir Petrov, Conference Coordinator
George Washington University
Professor Leo Rose
University of California at Berkeley
Professor Donald Zagoria
Hunter College
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 CLASS $ved F r1 e % 5/01/06 CIA-RDP8 0100N6$DRN IAioo1-1 ^ SECRET
ROUTING AND. RECORD SHED-T
SUBJECT; (Optional)
FROM:
OS/EAB
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
OS/EAB
4E-33 Kqs
*07 2 /O
0
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
25X1
23 June 1980
COMMENTS (Number. each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column otter each comment,)
 TO: (Name, office'symbol, room number,
build en yJPcsta ,J.
!. Direct r of Securit__
Initials
Date
4.
NIOJEA
-~ 7 L 7 S
ction
File
Note and Return
pproval
For Clearance
Per Conversation
I
s Requested
For Correction
Prepare Reply
irculate
For Your Information
See Me
o
mment
investigate
Signature
Coordination
Justi
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East Asia and Problems of Detente
Schedule of the conference
Page 2
Thursday, July 12:
9:30-12:00
2:00-4:00
Friday, July 13:
9:00-12:30
A joint session: Security issues of East
Asia and the Pacific and prospects of great
powers cooperation.
men of regional sections, outlining areas of
agreement on key issues as well as differences
in US and Soviet evaluations. Dr. Sigur and
Dr. Sladkovsky sum up the results of the
conference.
A joint session: Security issues in South
Asia and the Indian Ocean region and prospects
for great powers cooperation.
A joint session: Six reports of the co-chair-
Monday, July 16: 6:00 p.m. Reception and dinner, in Washington, in honor
of the Soviet delegation.
Vladimir Petrov, Conference Coordinator
June 4, 1979
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200210001-1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy Director for Notional Foreign Assessment
10 September 1979
Announcement of Assignment to Key Position
National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Pacific
Effective immediately,
NIO/China,
will temporarily assume the additional responsibility of
NIO/East Asia Pacific, v
ice
Members of NFIB (to include INR/DIA)
-,NSC Staff
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