NOTE(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 41
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 15, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 1, 1980
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83BO 0R000200160001-7
STAT
STAT
301
25X1
TAI
STAT
2 Paper byl dtd 1 Feb
Subj: Input to DCI Worldwide Brief on Thailand
3 Paper by 0 dtd 1 Feb
Subj: Input on South Korea to DCI Worldwide Brief
4 Memo to DCI from JHH, dtd 1 Feb
Subj: Ltr from DCI to 0 (NFAC 0845-80)
(DCI's ltr to signed 8 Feb)
Note to OWI, OSI, OER, OPA, & OSR from JHH, dtd 4 Feb
Subj: Disseminating from his China trip
6 Note to DD/NFA from JHH, dtd 7 Feb
Subj : Re paper
to do)
7 Alert Memo, dtd 8 Feb
Subj: Threat of Military Counteraction in South Korea
3 Note to CAR from JHH, dtd 8 Feb
Subj: Request from Rand to receive "China Review"
10 Memo to DCI from JHH, dtd 12 Feb
Subj: NIE 56-1-80, The Philippines (NFAC 1055-80)
STAT 11 Ltr to from JHH, dtd 13 Feb
Subj: a is expenses incurred in Dec 79
STAT
STAT 16
-V
Subj: Transmitting Note on Maps
13 Memo to DD/NFA from JHH, dtd 15 Feb
Subj: Senior Review Panel Comments on Final Draft on
NIE 56-1-80, The Philippines (NFAC 1171-80)
14 Memo to C/NIC from JHH, dtd 15 Feb
Subj : NIE item--.on= South Korea
15 Memo to C/NIC from JHH, dtd 15 Feb
Subj: Korean Situation
STA
ST
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 Approved Ior Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Tab
17
Handwritten note tol rom JHH, dtd 15 Feb
Subj: Hours spent in preparation of Worldwide Brief
18 LDX to Armacost fro: dtd 19 Feb
Subj: PRC Economic & Military Assistance to Pakistan
19 LDX to from JHH, dtd 20 Feb
Subj: unsigned memo.to D/DIA on NIE on Warning in Korea
20 Memo to NFIB Principals, from
Subj: NIE 56-1-80: The Philippines: -A -Difficult Road
Ahead
21 LDX tol -1 dtd 22 Feb
Subj: Text of Memo from Seoul
22 Note to the Director from JHH, dtd 25 Feb
Subj: Input on Thai-Kampuchean for DCI Worldwide Brief
23 Warning Memo from JHH, dtd 26 Feb
Subj: Warning Assessment for China-East Asia Pacific
STAT
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 STAT Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 8 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 ApprovedW Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B001 0R0002001-60001-7
25X1
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington. D. C.20505
7//
I much appreciated receiving your report of
your visit to China last August and found it to be
of great interest in providing a feel for the state
of Chinese technology in a number of critical
military-related areas. I will see to it that your
report is given to our analysts who cover these
matters, but I hope that it will also be possible
for you to meet directly with some of them in
Washington for a follow-up when you find it
convenient to take the time.
Yours,
25X1
Distribution
Orig - Addressee
fd'- DCI
1 - DDCI
1-ER
1 - DD/NFA
1 - C/NIC
2 - NIO/China-EAP
1 - NFAC Registry
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R00020016
?
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
4 February 1980
The attached report from)
is the result
of his trip to China last August. We have
asked him to spend some time with us to
discuss his trip the next time he is in
this area.
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R00020016
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 19 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RD
THE DIROOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
STAT
STAT
STAT
NOTE FOR DD/NFA
7 February 1980
You asked whether we could get out
F_ 7 Defense Paper in
another format. We will discuss contracting
that project with when she
returns from her Southeast Asian trip on
18 February. The original research is a
document of about 260 pages. We share
OPA's view that she might be interested in
the project. She plans to retire at the
end of the month.
'N-EAP
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 Approved Fir Release 24/2 : CIA-RDP831300100R00 ~. - .
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE .25X1
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
17 January 1980
NOTE FOR: NIO/China-East Asia/Pacific
1. I have read into the draft of the NIE on 0 Defense
Policy and I think you have some work to do. Neither the. message
nor the way of saying it seems to me to be up to NIE standards.
The paper needs greater clarity, economy of words, and elaboration
of some of the key points. Before you go to the Community for
coordination, I recommend a careful redraft, taking into consideration
the comments of the Senior Review Panel.
2. I have never thought this ought to be an NIE. It always
has seemed to me more suitable for my understanding of what we mean
by an IIM and this draft doesn't alter my view of that.
cc: Chairman, NIC
Senior Review Panel
puce ar ke, Jr.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/172/22 : CIA-RDP83BOOl00R000200160001-7
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : # RDP83B00100R00020
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NIO China-E
8 February 1980
I would appreciate any thoughts as to
request to be placed on the
distribution list of "China Review" and
also to provide access to classified
materials to
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B0010:0R0002001 1
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 CIA- 3BQQ100R000200160001-7
THE DIRE OR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
12 February 1980
25XIOTE FOR
25XIROM:
PIIO/China-EAP
Attached for your information is a
25Xlopy of a research paper done by
on "Political Trends in Taiwan." The report
should be-administratively controlled to
protect sources.
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R0002001.60001-7
 Approved0 Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B0IS 0R000200160001-7
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
13 February 1980
STAT
STAT
My belated thanks for your presentation here in Washington --
I had been waiting to hear from you on your expenses and when this
particular jog to my memory didn't come through I'm afraid things
got lost in the shuffle. Anyway, I know that the analysts appreciated
the insights: that you gave them on the PRC military and allied matters,
as did I. We all are very grateful for the time and effort that you
put into coming down here.
On your expenses, let us know how much you spent and we will
reimburse you as promptly as we can. You can send the details to
me, and I will take care of them.
I assume that the Gloom Period up your way is beginning to end,
and that just a little bit of light is now appearing in the sky at
reveille. I wish the same could be said about the world scene in
general.
All the best to you and your,wife.
Sin9e~Yely,
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
STA
 Approved S Release 20 12[ 2 CIA-RDP83BO OR000200160001-7
PdFAC 1055-80
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
National Intelligence Officers
12 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT : NIE 56-1-80, The Philippines: A Difficult
Road Ahead
The attached copy of the Estimate on the Philippines
has been approved by the NFIB Representatives. I request
your approval to place it on the NFIB agenda at an early time.
APPROVED:
Director of Central Intelligence
DERIVATIV CL BY
^ C'2% ---L L'J REVI "! ON
Approved For Releas6a00, 42/22: CIA- R~pS B00100R0002001& 001-
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100 000200160001-7
Distribution
1 each - DCI
DDCI
ER
DD/NFA
C/NIC
NIO/China-EAP Chrono
NIO/China-EAP File
NFAC Registry
Approved For Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001
THE CTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
14 February 1980
I have called this to
attention and asked him to e us precisely
what it is that they want. With this
information in hand, I will arrange to
obtain the necessary maps. greed.
0 Chin a-EAP
~pproved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R00020016001
 s l ?
EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT (O/DCI)
Routing Slip
ACTION
INFO
DATE
INITIAL
1
DCI
X
2
DDCI
X
'DD/RM
4
DD/NFA
5
DD/CT
6
DD/A
DD/0
A (f
r Para
action
8
DD/S&T
9
GC
10
LC
11
IG
12
Compt
13
D/PA
14
D/EEO
15
D/Pers
16
AO/DCI
17
C/IPS
18
NZ+;IClf
X f
r Para
action?
.
19
CI-ILA/D00
20
PB/NSC
X
21
ES
X
22
Approved For Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B0010b' 2062 60 6 0 0 0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2O 1 /R : CIA-RDP83BOOl0 0?iQg~6Qdg01C~~ ^+
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
15 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
THROUGH Chairman, National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT Senior Review Panel Comments on Final Draft on
NIE 56-1-80, The Philippines
REFERENCE Memo from SRP, dated 14 February 1980,
Same Subject (NFAC 1132-80)
1. I have noted the Senior Review Panel's comments on the
final draft of NIE 56-1-80, and I disagree. As I understand it,
the Key Judgments are not intended to provide a full discussion
of all the issues involved (else what's a discussion section for?)
but only the conclusions which would be of interest to US
policymakers. Moreover, my own reading of the Key Judgments versus
the discussion does not indicate the degree of disparity noted by
the SRP.
2. The recent Philippine elections were certainly not a
conclusive factor in the ongoing trend of Philippine political
developments, and accordingly it was.not considered either necessary
or desirable to highlight them in the Key Judgments.
ORIGINAL CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON FEB 00
All Portions of this
Approved For Release 200512 : CIA-RDP83B08&2tVf66F7T-
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
NFAC 1132-80
14 February 1980
Memorandum for DD/NFA
Subject: Senior Review Panel Comments on Final Draft
on NIE 56-1-80, The Philippines, dated
12 February 1980 (NFAC 1055-80)
1. The estimate represents careful research and
the Discussion presents balanced estimative judgments.
2. We believe, however, that the Key Judgments
are less balanced. While they reflect the main analytical
conclusions on the weaknesses of the Marcos regime and
on the opposition, the Key Judgments do not adequately
represent the Discussion on the regime's strengths and
achievements. The reader who reads only the Key Judgments
is therefore likely to get a skewed impression.
3. We also wonder whether the Key Judgments should
not refer at least briefly to the recent elections which
the Discussion covers in para 53.
cc: C/NIC
.. NI0/China-EAP
ALL PORTIONS ARE
CLASSIFIED SECRET
SIGNERS
Z4 Feb 1986
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R0002001?60001-7
SECRET
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
15 February 1980
I am delighted that you can participate in our seminar
I land we are set on April 10 and 11, which was your
secon suggestion. My staff is at work on arrangements and
program and we will be back to you with more details in a
week or so.
Any suggestions on subjects which in your opinion should
be covered will be most welcome.
Warm regards, and I'm looking forward to seeing you.
Sincerely,
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B00 OR000200160001-7
25X1
NOTE FOR:
5 February 1980
Regarding Dick Lehman's call at yesterday's
NIC staff meeting for statistics from each NIO
on the amount of time that you and your assis-
tant(s) spent.on Congressional support during
January and February, reports that
.each of you spent roughly an hour and a half
in one joint session with the DCI on 21 or 22
January in preparation for Round One in the
Worldwide briefing. (This does not include,
of course, any time you may have spent one-on-
one with the DCI earlier or later.) Please
provide me with figures for (a) hours spent by
you and your assistant(s) on the Worldwide'
briefing exercise; and (b) hours spent in any
other Congressional work for those two months.'
Thanks.
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approved:! Release .2004/12/22 :. CIA-RDP83BO9 OR000200160001-7
29 Jan All:?Afternoon
30 Jan Morning (most of day)
6 Feb Morning (3/4 of day)
------------
1S~'kvs.
'C 1
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7-
 Approved 0 Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83B0 0R000200160001-7
LDX TO: Michael Armacost
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East Asian & Pacific Affairs
Room 6208
Department of State
19 February 1980
Assistant NIO for
China
7 E 62
CIA Hqs
D
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200160001-7
 Approver Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83400R000200160001-7
25X1 LDX TO:
DIO/East Asia & Pacific
Room 2 C 2238, The Pentagon
695-0416
20 February 1980
Assistant NIO/China-EAP
CIA Hqs
L A
CIA Rep, NPZCC
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 ', Approve Wr Release 200 aW11/Q1NTd rRDP83E000R000200160001-7
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
SUBJECT . NIE on Warning in Korea
25X1
25X1
25X1
1. As you will remember, our attempt to do a Korean Warning NIE
in 1978 was overtaken by events when the order of battle reassessment
occurred. then DIA/DE, and Bob Bowie exchanged cor-
respondence on the subject last spring in which it was agreed that we
would begin the NIE as soon as the Pre-H Hour Scenario Study was far
enough down the track to give us something to work with. I subse-
quently wrote you in November communicating my view that we were far
enough along to get started, responded to my letter in
early December, expressing his view that we should wait until the
collection analysis phase of the Scenario Study is complete, probably
this spring or early summer.
2. My concern is that if we wait to start the NIE until after
completion of your collection assessment, our consumers will be with-
out a community warning judgment until late in the year. Since our
understanding of necessary North Korean preparations is already good,
based in large part on the DIA Scenario Study, I believe we can, and
should, get started on the NIE now.
3. I have reviewed the draft of the Korean Scenario Study and am
impressed with the exhaustive analysis reflected therein. It provides
a solid foundation on which to build. The study represents only one
case, however -- a premeditated 60 day preparation to attack. While
plausible, this scenario is but one end of the spectrum. It is the
best case from a warning viewpoint, and I am concerned that, if not
counterbalanced, it might imbue our consumers with unwarranted op-
25X1
timism.
Approved For Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP8y
 25X1
25X1
Approver Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83400R000200160001-7
5. I agree with I better in which he pointed out the
perceived shortcomings of NIE 4-1-78. We must not allow the Korean
Warning NIE to be suspect because of a lack of supporting analysis.
I believe, however, that our understanding of how the North Koreans
might go to war, at least in the case of a deliberate buildup, is far
enough along that we can proceed. Hopefully, those steps necessary to
prepare for a reactive, flat-footed attack are imbedded in the 60 day
scenario. 0
6. In any case, I propose we undertake now to:
Obtain community approval of a concept paper;
-- Draft and negotiate terms of reference.;
Develop a second scenario;
-- Begin drafting the NIE.
Phase II of the DIA SceStudy, the collection assessment, should
proceed in parallel. u
Bruce C. Clarke, Jr.
Approved For Release 2 V4 TId1A-RDP83B0010OR000200160001-7
??, f F c; r3 r .$ ~i;# f; $F stt~ to Y t 1r ~,a, ~,..~5 .31
 Approver Release 2004U: CIA-RDP83Bi00R000200160001-7
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
FED 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: NFIB Principals
SUBJECT . NIE 56-1-80: The Philippines: A Difficult
0
1. The attached draft National Intelligence Estimate,
The Philippines: A Difficult Road Ahead, has been authorized
by the Director of Central Intelligence for consideration by
2. The NFIB meeting will be held in early March 1980.
Attachment
NIE 56-1-80
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON FEB 86
Derived from Multiple
Approved For Release 202 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 p} oved For Release 2004/12 CIA-RDP83BOOl00R000200
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers 25 February 1980
NIO China-EAP
25
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200
In addition to the analysis set forth in
the accompanying NID article, with which I
agree, I would add that if the Vietnamese
military forces-along the Thai-Kampuchean
border penetrate deeply into Thailand and/or
engage in a major clash with Thai army forces
along the border, Kriangsak's problems would
be greatly compounded.
 Approver Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP8310 00R000200160001-7
22 February 1980
LDX TO: NMCC LDX Pentagon From:
Please call on receipt
and pass directl to
(695-0257), Room 2 C 238
Assistant NIO/China-EAP
7 E 62, CIA
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200160001-7
 Approve r Release 2004/12/22: CIA-RDP83
THAILAND: Political Crisis
Prime Minister Kriangsak's recent decision to raise er_erT.,
prices has sparked a series of antigovernment d
couZd further undermine hzs nn>ov.,.,..9