THE ITALIAN POLITICAL OUTLOOK THROUGH THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000100030042-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: June 28, 1952
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : CIA-RDP79R00904A000100030042-4
25X1
CENTRAL INTELLIG El] 'C u AGIIICY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTINATES
28 June 1952
11CI11RAUDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR OF C' T IP L INTELLIGENCE
25X1
SMELT: The Italian Political Outlook through the Rational
Electionsi/
Ci: NCLUSIO11S='
The 1951-1952 local elections have indicated a sharp trend
away from the democratic center, particularly toward the right
Although largely by virtue of a 1951 electoral law permitting
"linked lists" the government actually increased its control over
local administrations, the popular vote for the Christian Democratic
Party declined sharply.
De Gaspers will probably attempt to overcome these losses
by broadening the government's political base and by taking legal
action against the neo-fascist right and possibly against the
extreme left 0
He will probably seek to broaden his government by renewed
alliance with the right-wing Socialists and the Liberals. We
believe that an electoral coalition of these center parties would
obtain a narrow majority of votes in the national elections, which
will probably be held in the spring of 1953. If, as seems likely,
a new electoral law is passed, their parliamentary majority may be
somewhat larger.
The Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department of State, concurs
in this estimate. It has been prepared in collaboration with OIL.
This is an interim estimate pending completion of NIE-71, "The
` Probable Outlook for Italy,,"
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However, even though such a center government will probably
be reconstituted, the trend toward increased right-wing electoral
strength will probably lead to a subsequent shift in the government
toward the right.
SHfl MAN KENT
Assistant Director
National Estimates
Attachment: DISCUSSION
Approved For Release 2005/06/23 : 8009MR00904A000100030042-4